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Potential December 12th-13th threat

BullCityWx

By BullCityWx,
in Southeastern States

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DaculaWeather

DaculaWeather

Posted
Posted

This just in...

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA

516 PM EST FRI DEC 10 2010

.UPDATE...

THE SNOW ACCUMULATION GRIDS FOR 06Z TO 12Z SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY

MORNING HAD A BAD ENTRY THAT RESULTED IN ERRONEOUS WORDING IN THE

TEXT FORECAST PRODUCTS. WE ARE NOT EXPECTING ANY SIGNIFICANT

SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS DURING THIS TIME PERIOD. A CORRECTED SET OF

TEXT FORECAST PRODUCTS ARE BEING GENERATED TO ADDRESS THIS AND

WILL BE SENT SHORTLY. WE APOLOGIZE FOR ANY PROBLEMS THIS MAY HAVE

CAUSED.

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Brian

Brian

Posted
Posted

This just in...

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA

516 PM EST FRI DEC 10 2010

.UPDATE...

THE SNOW ACCUMULATION GRIDS FOR 06Z TO 12Z SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY

MORNING HAD A BAD ENTRY THAT RESULTED IN ERRONEOUS WORDING IN THE

TEXT FORECAST PRODUCTS. WE ARE NOT EXPECTING ANY SIGNIFICANT

SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS DURING THIS TIME PERIOD. A CORRECTED SET OF

TEXT FORECAST PRODUCTS ARE BEING GENERATED TO ADDRESS THIS AND

WILL BE SENT SHORTLY. WE APOLOGIZE FOR ANY PROBLEMS THIS MAY HAVE

CAUSED.

WTF???????????????????????:gun_bandana::gun_bandana::gun_bandana::snowman::snowman::snowman::snowman:

Oh, what about Sunday aft/night???

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dsaur

dsaur

Posted
Posted

This just in...

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA

516 PM EST FRI DEC 10 2010

.UPDATE...

THE SNOW ACCUMULATION GRIDS FOR 06Z TO 12Z SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY

MORNING HAD A BAD ENTRY THAT RESULTED IN ERRONEOUS WORDING IN THE

TEXT FORECAST PRODUCTS. WE ARE NOT EXPECTING ANY SIGNIFICANT

SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS DURING THIS TIME PERIOD. A CORRECTED SET OF

TEXT FORECAST PRODUCTS ARE BEING GENERATED TO ADDRESS THIS AND

WILL BE SENT SHORTLY. WE APOLOGIZE FOR ANY PROBLEMS THIS MAY HAVE

CAUSED.

And the dreaded Ga. weather curse raises its ugly head once again... to dash the weenie dreams of those who have not yet had it beaten out of them by years of caprice or misadventure. I better hope there is an impulse riding in behind the first. T

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phil882

phil882

Posted
Posted

Exams have already been cancelled on Monday in anticipation of the cold/snow. I have never seen that in my time here at App...

Now that I can't go home until Wednesday, I had better see some good action. :guitar:

Wow I've never seen App. State cancel anything this far in advance. I think its the right call, but geez! This event has the potential to rival February 15th of this past year for folks up in Boone so I hope they are ready!

yeah this is a tough call. When in doubt, usually go with rain. Big but though. This event is a very rare "extreme crashing height" event, which we don't have many cases of, but usually the switch over to snow is quick. I wouldn't be surprised to see a lot of the mountains of NC and TN be 95% snow on the frontal passage, which includes Asheville downtown. Meaning it could be a huge bust on the forecast, and a nice 6"-8" snowfall out of this, before any wrap-around gets Asheville later Sunday.

Yea I've been struggling to find a good analog for this event. CHIPS is also having a hard time finding a good analog. However, their probabilistic products showing chances of 2" of snow or greater indicate a decent probability of snowfall across WNC from this pattern (50-60 percent). My guess though is that this product does not have the resolution to accurately asses the chances of the valleys picking up significant snowfall accumulation in compairison to the higher elevations.

2rm6ow5.png

Well, if I were at GSP, the prudent thing to do would be a rain-to-snow in the actual forecast, with an understanding that there's an off-chance that the GFS verifies with all snow. The BUFKIT soundings actually have AVL getting no snow at all with the frontal passage. But you are right - the heights crash rapidly and the 850 temps drop precipitously within a 3-6 hour window somewhere around 12Z Sunday.

Upslope looks great and as usual the QPF from the NAM and GFS is minimal, but I could easily see 2" in AVL with 6-12" in the favored locales.

Asheville is really tricky with these upslope events. All it takes it one good band to break containment and it could drop a good 1-2" in the 1-2 hour period as it traverses the valley. This becomes more likely with these strong NWFS since we have ample moisture aloft, even downstream of the mountains. I think your 2" call is a good one!

Anyone planning on snow chasing in the mountains that is willing to take me along?

Haha I don't think I'll be able to take you along, but I might be doing some Weather Balloon launches at part of our ongoing mountain field project to analyze winter storms. This time we are setting up at Warren Wilson College on the east side of Asheville.

18z NAM coming in noticeably colder at 850mb with the frontal rain for places like Asheville and far North GA.

I noticed that too... it seems like its also distinctly deeper with the 500mb low this run as well... baby steps.

Yea, kinda wonder why GSP didn't go with a Winter Storm Watch too (at least for the northern Mountains).

Yea its a rare thing to see Morristown putting out the Watches when GSP hasn't issued anything as of yet. Normally its the other way around. There is still time though to issue a watch for the NWFS event for the northern mountains as it looks like it won't be starting up in earnest until Sunday Afternoon.

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K4CF

K4CF

Posted
Posted

Yea, kinda wonder why GSP didn't go with a Winter Storm Watch too (at least for the northern Mountains).

I agree...as of 4pm Blacksburg had this to say about NW North Carolina...

Short term /Saturday night through Monday night/...

an elevation Winter Storm Watch was issued for Greenbrier

County...as confidence is high regarding warning criteria snows with

another prolonged upslope event. A watch may also be necessary for

northwest NC but was for coordination purposes didnt issue at this

time...but could have. Models are a little slower with the cold

air...however precipitation will be changing to snow on Sunday. Strong

upslope flow could allow sneaky snow accums Sat night across northwest

NC...although this seems tough considering 850 mb temperatures.

However...did place some accums and snow into northwest NC considering

consistent GFS BUFKIT soundings.

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Buddy

Buddy

Posted
Posted

Starting to think this MIGHT be the first significant snow event for far WNC this year. With these upslope things we usually don't get much but the angle the system appears to be coming in at might bring us some decent snow showers over Sunday night into Monday morning. Odd that most of the TN mountains already have watches out but I bet we'll see those fly up in WNC in the A.M, or maybe even later tonight.

Add to that COLD COLD COLD. We could potentially break into single digits monday night, and highs for Monday are in the mid 20s.

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Carvers Gap

Carvers Gap

Posted
Posted

Just returned from Johnson City. TDOT is already pretreating I-26. Upon returning to Erwin, I noticed Main Street (TN 107) and Rock Creek Rd (TN 395) had also been pretreated. These roads are already a mess; now they are completely white.

I'm off to Asheville for the evening; I'll be back later with some thoughts for the Tennesseeans. scooter.gif

I think I said to, "Stick a fork in this system," a day or two ago and that this system would go to Ohio. :whistle: It's probably time to unfork the system for NE TN - though I still have my doubts as to whether Kingsport can score on this system. These systems are always tough for us due to our proximity in the northern valley. Last year, it was a bonus. This set-up may be tough for my area of the Tri-Cities...Hope not. The mountains should score, and score big as others have already stated.

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buncombe

buncombe

Posted
Posted

I said this during the last storm and I'll say it again . . . I'm not sure why GSP is being so gun shy on advisories and warnings this year. I still need to check to see if there were changes. Asheville City Schools were out two days due to snow in the northern part of Buncombe County this week (as were Buncombe County schools), but not once during the last storm was any part of Buncombe County under an advisory of any kind. I have to think that given that my street within the Asheville City limits was coated with snow twice this week an advisory was warranted.

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FoothillsNC

FoothillsNC

Posted
Posted

I said this during the last storm and I'll say it again . . . I'm not sure why GSP is being so gun shy on advisories and warnings this year. I still need to check to see if there were changes. Asheville City Schools were out two days due to snow in the northern part of Buncombe County this week (as were Buncombe County schools), but not once during the last storm was any part of Buncombe County under an advisory of any kind. I have to think that given that my street within the Asheville City limits was coated with snow twice this week an advisory was warranted.

Looks like they did change on Nov 15.

http://www.erh.noaa.gov/gsp/pns/CAEPNSGSP-2010-11-08-1827.php

The 12 hour watch/warning criteria is 4", and the 24 hour watch/warning is 5". And the 12 hour snow advisory criteria is now 2". If I read this right, its still too early on GSP to issue a watch, unless theres some watch they can issue past 24 hours from an event. If tonights 00Z runs show the threat, I'd bet watches are issued overnight.

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NEGa

NEGa

Posted
Posted

afraid this sat night and sunday could be pretty frustrating around ne ga...100% chance of rain with temps in the mid 30s sat. night and the high sun. keeps getting lowered. so its going to be within a few degrees of something good, only to have the temps drop below freezing just as the moisture is exiting the area :arrowhead:

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NavarreDon

NavarreDon

Posted
Posted

Looks like they did change on Nov 15.

http://www.erh.noaa.gov/gsp/pns/CAEPNSGSP-2010-11-08-1827.php

The 12 hour watch/warning criteria is 4", and the 24 hour watch/warning is 5". And the 12 hour snow advisory criteria is now 2". If I read this right, its still too early on GSP to issue a watch, unless theres some watch they can issue past 24 hours from an event. If tonights 00Z runs show the threat, I'd bet watches are issued overnight.

FoothillsNC, Can you explain why they are so conservative in their HWO compared to Morristown with WSW & even Blacksburg's HWO? It seems likely to me that at least their N. Mnt. counties would require a WSW at some point. They seem to have lumped everyone together in this HWO. Thanks in Advance

Hazardous Weather Outlook

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...CORRECTED

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC

411 PM EST FRI DEC 10 2010

NCZ033-048>053-058-059-062-063-501-503-505-112115-

AVERY-MADISON-YANCEY-MITCHELL-SWAIN-HAYWOOD-BUNCOMBE-GRAHAM-

NORTHERN JACKSON-MACON-SOUTHERN JACKSON-CALDWELL MOUNTAINS-

BURKE MOUNTAINS-MCDOWELL MOUNTAINS-

411 PM EST FRI DEC 10 2010

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

ANOTHER ROUND OF COLD...GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BRING SNOW

SHOWERS TO THE MOUNTAINS BEGINNING EARLY SUNDAY MORNING AND

CONTINUING INTO MONDAY NIGHT. SOME MIXED PRECIPITATION MAY

OCCUR LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY MORNING AS THE COLD

FRONT APPROACHES...BEFORE TURNING TO ALL SNOW OVER THE MOUNTAINS.

STRONG WINDS COMBINED WITH SNOW WILL CREATE VERY HAZARDOUS TRAVEL

AND FRIGID WIND CHILLS. ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL WILL BE LIKELY...

WITH THE HEAVIEST AMOUNTS ALONG AND NEAR THE TENNESSEE BORDER. A

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE ISSUED ON SATURDAY FOR

SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

NONE.

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CAD_Wedge_NC

CAD_Wedge_NC

Posted
Posted

Anybody noticing the 0z NAM coming in? IT is showing around .25 liquid falling over eastern NC, at 18 hours, with 850 temps at zero. Very strange..

Upper level (700 mb) looks too warm but this is still interesting. Also, the 1320m thickness line only catches the western edge of the precip shield. Haven't checked the soundings yet, but they could very well be isothermal with this type of set-up.

18h

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/nam/18/images/nam_sl7_018l.gif

24h

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/nam/18/images/nam_sl7_024l.gif

30h

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/nam/18/images/nam_sl7_030l.gif

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NCSNOW

NCSNOW

Posted
Posted

Anybody noticing the 0z NAM coming in? IT is showing around .25 liquid falling over eastern NC, at 18 hours, with 850 temps at zero. Very strange..

Close in a way. You can see the cold pockets leftover , espeacilly in the foothills, but that early moisture for Sat evening looks to be more confined to hwy 1 east. Wouldn't be shocked if someone saw a graupel or flurrie tommorrow, with low wetbulbs, if any moisture could make it over toward western piedmont/foothills.

Nam at hr 30

00znam850mbTSLPp06_county030.gif

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FoothillsNC

FoothillsNC

Posted
Posted

FoothillsNC, Can you explain why they are so conservative in their HWO compared to Morristown with WSW & even Blacksburg's HWO? It seems likely to me that at least their N. Mnt. counties would require a WSW at some point. They seem to have lumped everyone together in this HWO. Thanks in Advance

I really can't speak for them. Not sure why their waiting , but I would think in the night shift they put up a watch or an advisory. Its hard to see the upcoming event not requiring a watch or atleast an advisory by tomorrow morning. Forecasting snow amounts is always tricky, but in this event, I think everyone knows theres going to be several inches at the very minimum for the northern mountain counties...however forecasting in Bumcombe Co. is always harder to do because of the unique geography. Some upslope works, some don't, and for various parts of the county it can change from 1" to several. In an arctic outbreak like this, usually all of the mountain counties get some accumulation. I'm expecting advisory levels in Asheville, and blizzard warnings in Avery before its all over with Tuesday evening.

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