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Potential December 12th-13th threat


BullCityWx

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And the Winter Storm Watches have been issued by MRX. 3-6 for the Plateau and Northeastern Valley counties. 5-10 for MRX SW VA counties, and 6-12 for the Eastern Mtn counties. Higher amounts at higher elevations. The watches run from Sunday morning til Monday evening for all areas as of now.

MRX says 0-3 inches for the Central Valley and Southern Plateau and Valley counties. I expect a Snow Advisory to be issued for those areas tomorrow evening if everything still looks on track.

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And the Winter Storm Watches have been issued by MRX. 3-6 for the Plateau and Northeastern Valley counties. 5-10 for MRX SW VA counties, and 6-12 for the Eastern Mtn counties. Higher amounts at higher elevations. The watches run from Sunday morning til Monday evening for all areas as of now.

MRX says 0-3 inches for the Central Valley and Southern Plateau and Valley counties. I expect a Snow Advisory to be issued for those areas tomorrow evening if everything still looks on track.

Yea, kinda wonder why GSP didn't go with a Winter Storm Watch too (at least for the northern Mountains).

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Yea, kinda wonder why GSP didn't go with a Winter Storm Watch too (at least for the northern Mountains).

Do you think that maybe they are waiting for one more shift before potential watches go up? I would expect pretty severe winter conditions to transpire over their NC Mtn counties and their WSW criteria is actually less than MRX's unless I am mistaken.

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Do you think that maybe they are waiting for one more shift before potential watches go up? I would expect pretty severe winter conditions to transpire over their NC Mtn counties and their WSW criteria is actually less than MRX's unless I am mistaken.

Maybe they are debating on going right to a warning and skipping over the watch....i guess it's possible...

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Do you think that maybe they are waiting for one more shift before potential watches go up? I would expect pretty severe winter conditions to transpire over their NC Mtn counties and their WSW criteria is actually less than MRX's unless I am mistaken.

Their afternoon discussion said "winter weather advisories", which implies just a couple inches of snow. I can understand being a little conservative at 48-hours out, but I think the potential is there for much more than just a few inches. They also mentioned the need to wait one more shift.

I suspect the overnight shift will make a decision based on the 00Z runs and how consistent they are with respect to today's 12Z run. Even then, they may still decide to go with an advisory...

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Maybe they are debating on going right to a warning and skipping over the watch....i guess it's possible...

It's possible, but that is extremely rare. Part of their mission is to warn and protect life and property. The watches are designed as a heads up. If you skip right over that phase, you may be setting yourself up for deep trouble...

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It's possible, but that is extremely rare. Part of their mission is to warn and protect life and property. The watches are designed as a heads up. If you skip right over that phase, you may be setting yourself up for deep trouble...

Honestly MRX does this all the time. Last December 18th I had 3 inches on the ground before they even issued a Snow Advisory. 5 inches before they issued a heavy snow warning.

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Just returned from Johnson City. TDOT is already pretreating I-26. Upon returning to Erwin, I noticed Main Street (TN 107) and Rock Creek Rd (TN 395) had also been pretreated. These roads are already a mess; now they are completely white.

I'm off to Asheville for the evening; I'll be back later with some thoughts for the Tennesseeans. scooter.gif

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thats where I lived. Right on 421/King Street, near intersection of 105 bypass at the bottom of Rich Mtn. I got lost going from Howards Knob on Fire Tower Road one Saturday which scared me. No map. And on "e" being the poor college student.

My front door looks straight out at rich mountain. Small world, hehe

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Just returned from Johnson City. TDOT is already pretreating I-26. Upon returning to Erwin, I noticed Main Street (TN 107) and Rock Creek Rd (TN 395) had also been pretreated. These roads are already a mess; now they are completely white.

I'm off to Asheville for the evening; I'll be back later with some thoughts for the Tennesseeans. scooter.gif

I would have sworn that they didn't pre-treat when rain was forecast first but they were pre-treating roads here earlier today too.

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NWS seems to think I may get a little snow action this weekend, And maybe a little bit Thursday ? :thumbsup: One thing is for sure it gonna be COLD :shiver:

SATURDAY NIGHT...SHOWERS...MAINLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. NOT AS COOL

WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS. CHANCE OF

RAIN NEAR 100 PERCENT.

.SUNDAY...RAIN SHOWERS. A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS IN THE

AFTERNOON. LITTLE OR NO SNOW ACCUMULATION. HIGHS IN THE LOWER

40S. TEMPERATURE FALLING INTO THE MID 30S IN THE AFTERNOON. LIGHT

AND VARIABLE WINDS...BECOMING WEST 15 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO

30 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON. CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION NEAR

100 PERCENT.

.SUNDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A 50 PERCENT CHANCE OF SNOW

SHOWERS. BLUSTERY AND MUCH COLDER WITH LOWS AROUND 19. NORTHWEST

WINDS 15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH. WIND CHILL VALUES AS

LOW AS 5 ABOVE.

.MONDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS IN THE

MORNING...THEN PARTLY SUNNY IN THE AFTERNOON. BLUSTERY AND MUCH

COOLER WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 20S. CHANCE OF SNOW 40 PERCENT.

WIND CHILL VALUES AS LOW AS ZERO.

.MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS AROUND

15. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 20S. WIND CHILL VALUES AS LOW AS ZERO.

.WEDNESDAY...SUNNY. HIGHS IN THE MID 30S. WIND CHILL VALUES AS

LOW AS 5 ABOVE IN THE MORNING.

.WEDNESDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY IN THE EVENING...THEN BECOMING

MOSTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE LOWER 20S.

.THURSDAY...CLOUDY WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW. A CHANCE OF RAIN IN THE

AFTERNOON. HIGHS AROUND 40. CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION 30 PERCENT.

.THURSDAY NIGHT...A CHANCE OF RAIN IN THE EVENING. MOSTLY CLOUDY

WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW. NEAR STEADY TEMPERATURE IN THE MID 30S.

CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION 30 PERCENT.

.FRIDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY IN THE MORNING...THEN BECOMING PARTLY

SUNNY. A CHANCE OF SNOW IN THE MORNING. HIGHS IN THE MID 40S.

CHANCE OF SNOW 30 PERCENT.

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I would have sworn that they didn't pre-treat when rain was forecast first but they were pre-treating roads here earlier today too.

Given how close of a call this is, I can't say I blame them. If the air is just a bit colder than projected at the onset, it could fall as all snow. Also, I'm sure a flash freeze is a bit of a concern, given the strength of the cold air behind it and the borderline temperatures already in place.

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So..have you seen much frozen this year? I had a good virga storm but I've seen nothing reach the ground this year. I know I saw Rosie say she'd seen some. Tony

no, i havent seen any yet so far this year. that is sort of odd as i would usually have at least seen some flurries by now. when rosie and dawsonwx were getting flurries i was downslope and dry :(

had a virga storm here wed. evening - echos over head and you could see the fuzzy clouds in the lights. not a flake (and i strained my eyes from looking so hard :lol:)

thats why i hope to at least some some flakes this weekend. some runs have a little precip in here, others have me in the dreaded downsloping dry area :thumbsdown:

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no, i havent seen any yet so far this year. that is sort of odd as i would usually have at least seen some flurries by now. when rosie and dawsonwx were getting flurries i was downslope and dry :(

had a virga storm here wed. evening - echos over head and you could see the fuzzy clouds in the lights. not a flake (and i strained my eyes from looking so hard :lol:)

thats why i hope to at least some some flakes this weekend. some runs have a little precip in here, others have me in the dreaded downsloping dry area :thumbsdown:

I can't see you escaping this year without some ice. Just seems like a roller coaster, if that is what we get, would favor you. I like the way this cold is holding in..seems odd for Dec. 99/00 had a cold Dec, and I got a moderate icing early that year. I just think we'll see some cad effects this winter. Working in some rain between hard freezes sure ups the odds too. T

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I can't see you escaping this year without some ice. Just seems like a roller coaster, if that is what we get, would favor you. I like the way this cold is holding in..seems odd for Dec. 99/00 had a cold Dec, and I got a moderate icing early that year. I just think we'll see some cad effects this winter. Working in some rain between hard freezes sure ups the odds too. T

been quite a while since ne ga had a decent ice storm, and with these cold shots of air it wont take much for a little precip to override and give us something frozen (i hope). i am sort of thinking this year has a better shot at ice than the last few

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Just something to throw out on the table, but alot of areas up here still have close to a foot of snow on the ground. If it rains up to a half an inch on it, then flash freezes it, then snows a foot on top of that............ we'll be in trouble!

send it down here! i will be more than happy to take it off your hands (and streets). :scooter: sort of funny today, hit the mid 40s for the first time in a while, and its been so cold that it actually felt decent outside, and no coat needed

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Very good point Joe. That would be a utter mess. But would be neat snow slides!!

Good luck man!

Just something to throw out on the table, but alot of areas up here still have close to a foot of snow on the ground. If it rains up to a half an inch on it, then flash freezes it, then snows a foot on top of that............ we'll be in trouble!

BTW, I know im out of the chase and really do not care for some passing flakes. So I will be rooting for the ones on the crew that might be lit up to get LIT up!!

I will toast you all with a cold one!!

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Just something to throw out on the table, but alot of areas up here still have close to a foot of snow on the ground. If it rains up to a half an inch on it, then flash freezes it, then snows a foot on top of that............ we'll be in trouble!

Be careful and pics would be great!

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From what I'm gathering from all of these AFD's, is there is going to be a pretty decent wrap around. I know earlier in the period there wasn't going to be much. So are the models trending toward more?

Yep...new 18z GFS looks very good for flurries and snow showers across all of N GA Sunday afternoon into Monday morning. Actually has QPF to ATL.

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