Potential December 12th-13th threat

[FoothillsNC]

Just took a quick peek at some sounding data for AVL on Saturday night/Sunday morning. The GFS is remarkably colder than the NAM. I still haven't quite figured out why, with such robust WAA, the warm nose really never gets established in the GFS (but does in the NAM).

Taken at face value, I believe the GFS is all snow for the whole event (or at least sleet). The NAM strongly urges rain changing to snow.

Which to believe?

yeah this is a tough call. When in doubt, usually go with rain. Big but though. This event is a very rare "extreme crashing height" event, which we don't have many cases of, but usually the switch over to snow is quick. I wouldn't be surprised to see a lot of the mountains of NC and TN be 95% snow on the frontal passage, which includes Asheville downtown. Meaning it could be a huge bust on the forecast, and a nice 6"-8" snowfall out of this, before any wrap-around gets Asheville later Sunday.

[tnweathernut]

From 12z gfs ..022 of snow, flizzard I know these are very inaccurate

Where do you find this? I lost my link for similar data when I changed computers. I'd love to see KTRI's.......... Thanks in advance.

[Cheeznado]

Now that I have been able to digest the 12Z models fully, it must be said the the new radically cold GFS is an outlier- no other models is nearly as cold, the Euro and CMC do not even bring 522 thickness to ATL, much less the 513 the GFS has. The 12Z UKMET is colder than the Euro etc but still not as cold as the GFS, with about 522 thickness here. Since it has been the most consistent model, prudence dictates that we do not drink the GFS Kool-Aid quite yet- which means not getting too excited about substantial snowshowers and highs in the mid 20s.....need a few more runs.

[John1122]

yeah this is a tough call. When in doubt, usually go with rain. Big but though. This event is a very rare "extreme crashing height" event, which we don't have many cases of, but usually the switch over to snow is quick. I wouldn't be surprised to see a lot of the mountains of NC and TN be 95% snow on the frontal passage, which includes Asheville downtown. Meaning it could be a huge bust on the forecast, and a nice 6"-8" snowfall out of this, before any wrap-around gets Asheville later Sunday.

MRX is mentioning the fact that the GFS is all snow in the mountains on the 06z run, the 06z NAM was much slower with the cold so it was partly rain. They said the 12z NAM actually trended a little closer to the 06z GFS and were waiting to see what the 12z GFS said and would possibly be putting out Winter Storm Watches with the afternoon package.

[HurricaneTracker]

yeah this is a tough call. When in doubt, usually go with rain. Big but though. This event is a very rare "extreme crashing height" event, which we don't have many cases of, but usually the switch over to snow is quick. I wouldn't be surprised to see a lot of the mountains of NC and TN be 95% snow on the frontal passage, which includes Asheville downtown. Meaning it could be a huge bust on the forecast, and a nice 6"-8" snowfall out of this, before any wrap-around gets Asheville later Sunday.

Well, if I were at GSP, the prudent thing to do would be a rain-to-snow in the actual forecast, with an understanding that there's an off-chance that the GFS verifies with all snow. The BUFKIT soundings actually have AVL getting no snow at all with the frontal passage. But you are right - the heights crash rapidly and the 850 temps drop precipitously within a 3-6 hour window somewhere around 12Z Sunday.

Upslope looks great and as usual the QPF from the NAM and GFS is minimal, but I could easily see 2" in AVL with 6-12" in the favored locales.

[Cheeznado]

Where do you find this? I lost my link for similar data when I changed computers. I'd love to see KTRI's.......... Thanks in advance.

coolwx.com

click on hourly forecasts

[Rankin5150]

I have been inudated with friggin work lately. I cannot even follow these threads. Could Jeremy or Robert (or anyone else) give me a quick assesment of any wintry chances for the Shelby to Kings Mtn to CLT triangle of non snow hell? Iif I am a betting man, it will be cold and rainy with the first system and token sleet pellets for the late week system? Seriously though, are there any cards on the table for the first or second system to produce more of a winter event than currently progged? Thanks for any analysis folks. Thanks my friends!

Jason

[oconeexman]

12z GFS has deeper wrap moisture across north Georgia than previous run. Here is the Gainesville GA sounding for 7pm Sunday. 80+ RH thru 700mb combined with PVA and produce plenty of snow showers especially north of Atlanta.

<BR>Date: 60 hour GFS valid 0Z MON 13 DEC 10<BR>Station: Kgvl<BR>Latitude:   34.32<BR>Longitude: -83.83<BR>-------------------------------------------------------------------------------<BR>LEV PRES  HGHT  TEMP  DEWP  RH  DD   WETB DIR SPD THETA THE-V THE-W THE-E   W<BR>     mb     m     C     C    %   C     C  deg knt   K     K     K     K    g/kg<BR>-------------------------------------------------------------------------------<BR>  0 1000    54                                                                 <BR>SFC  959   382  -4.6  -6.8  85  2.1  -5.3 285  18 271.7 272.1 270.1 278.3  2.40<BR>  2  950   460  -4.9  -7.4  83  2.4  -5.7 289  27 272.2 272.6 270.2 278.5  2.31<BR>  3  850  1323 -11.2 -12.8  87  1.7 -11.6 301  55 274.5 274.7 270.7 279.2  1.67<BR>  4  800  1787 -12.4 -14.4  85  2.0 -12.9 306  55 277.9 278.2 272.5 282.4  1.56<BR>  5  750  2278 -14.0 -16.0  85  2.0 -14.5 309  55 281.4 281.6 274.3 285.7  1.46<BR>  6  700  2800 -16.4 -18.9  81  2.6 -16.9 310  58 284.4 284.6 275.6 288.0  1.22<BR>  7  650  3356 -17.0 -25.0  50  8.0 -18.5 309  62 289.7 289.9 277.7 292.1  0.77<BR>  8  600  3952 -20.5 -30.5  41 10.0 -22.0 305  59 292.4 292.5 278.6 294.0  0.50<BR>  9  550  4592 -23.6 -35.6  32 12.0 -25.1 298  53 296.1 296.2 280.1 297.2  0.34<BR>10  500  5282 -28.1 -39.8  32 11.7 -29.3 291  51 298.7 298.8 281.1 299.6  0.24

Kind of similar soundings here as well...hopefully we squeeze a flake or two out.

[tnweathernut]

coolwx.com

click on hourly forecasts

Thanks for the site, but it appears the only two TN sites available are BNA and Memphis............ Still a fun site to look at.

[burgertime]

Moderators prerogative But No one talks about it there. I do wish more southern folks talked about it there. It's rare to have an intelligent sports debate anywhere on the internet, but it happens here. I mean the team boards are just awful. You either have homers who always think their team is the greatest or trolls from other teams.

Seriously though, sorry for being off topic..back to the cold

Hahaha you got that right. I was in the Bobcats and Panthers forum for a little bit but it was usually pretty stale outside of Jeremy and a few others. Just figured I would bust your chops a little. I mean considering this a non event for 90% got to talk about something.

[burgertime]

I have been inudated with friggin work lately. I cannot even follow these threads. Could Jeremy or Robert (or anyone else) give me a quick assesment of any wintry chances for the Shelby to Kings Mtn to CLT triangle of non snow hell? Iif I am a betting man, it will be cold and rainy with the first system and token sleet pellets for the late week system? Seriously though, are there any cards on the table for the first or second system to produce more of a winter event than currently progged? Thanks for any analysis folks. Thanks my friends!

Jason

As of right now looks like just a cold rain with the very very off chance of a flurry if we're lucky which we almost never are.

[FoothillsNC]

As of right now looks like just a cold rain with the very very off chance of a flurry if we're lucky which we almost never are.

for our area on the overnight Sat. event, yeah just rain. We may have a stray flake cross teh mountains Sunday, but don't blink. I'm getting a feeling of some ZR and sleet late wed. night and Thursday for our area. Still early though.

[Brian]

From KATL, interesting to say the least.

Area forecast discussion

National Weather Service Peachtree City Georgia

159 PM EST Friday Dec 10 2010

Short term /tonight through Sunday night/...

models in good agreement with the Saturday night system. Some timing

differences with the NAM with the NAM running a bit slower...but

overall strength is about the same. The current short wave moving

across OK/Texas is prognosticated to move across the County Warning Area late tonight and

early Saturday but expect only an increase in clouds and some

virga...atmosphere remains very dry. This will change through the

late afternoon on Saturday as the trough deepens over the

Mississippi Valley and brings a moist southwest flow aloft to the

area. Lower level remain dry and do not expect any precipitation during the

day Saturday. Quick changes Saturday night as moisture spreads

across the County Warning Area ahead of the front. While instability is at a

minimum...800 mb jet of 60 to 65 kts and helicities forecast above 500

across north Georgia could provide for some gusty winds with the

showers that are able to tap into these winds. Do not expect any

thunder...however wouldnt be surprised if there was a clap of

thunder somewhere in the County Warning Area Saturday night.

By 12z sun the front is out of the County Warning Area with very strong cold air advection behind

the front. This comes into play as the wrap around moisture moves

into the County Warning Area. GFS is more aggressive than the European model (ecmwf) with the wrap

around moisture but still brings it into central Georgia. Looking at quantitative precipitation forecast

it appears there is a potential for less than 1 inch of snow in the

mountains Sunday...a dusting as far south as atl/gvl...and flurries

with no accumulation for the rest of the County Warning Area...except the extreme

southeast. All the precipitation ends by 00z Monday except for the northeast

mountains where a few flurries could linger...but these should end

by 06z Monday.

40 to 45 kts 800 mb winds across the County Warning Area Sunday afternoon into

Monday...plus strong cold air advection and being in the back side of the vorticity maximum

will be enough for strong gradient winds. This will also push wind

chills values into the teens and 20s during the day Sunday...and

into the teens and single digits Sunday night.

[DaculaWeather]

Atlanta has had highs in the teens 15 different times by my count. The record is 7 (wow) in the great cold blast of Feb 1899.

This would be a record for Dec 13, the current record is 29.

Records here:

Mon: 4 (1962)

Tue: -4 (1962)

Wed: 11 (1962)

Must have been a pretty nice storm in '62!

[eyewall]

Anyone planning on snow chasing in the mountains that is willing to take me along?

[neatlburbwthrguy]

From KATL, interesting to say the least.

Area forecast discussion

National Weather Service Peachtree City Georgia

159 PM EST Friday Dec 10 2010

Short term /tonight through Sunday night/...

models in good agreement with the Saturday night system. Some timing

differences with the NAM with the NAM running a bit slower...but

overall strength is about the same. The current short wave moving

across OK/Texas is prognosticated to move across the County Warning Area late tonight and

early Saturday but expect only an increase in clouds and some

virga...atmosphere remains very dry. This will change through the

late afternoon on Saturday as the trough deepens over the

Mississippi Valley and brings a moist southwest flow aloft to the

area. Lower level remain dry and do not expect any precipitation during the

day Saturday. Quick changes Saturday night as moisture spreads

across the County Warning Area ahead of the front. While instability is at a

minimum...800 mb jet of 60 to 65 kts and helicities forecast above 500

across north Georgia could provide for some gusty winds with the

showers that are able to tap into these winds. Do not expect any

thunder...however wouldnt be surprised if there was a clap of

thunder somewhere in the County Warning Area Saturday night.

By 12z sun the front is out of the County Warning Area with very strong cold air advection behind

the front. This comes into play as the wrap around moisture moves

into the County Warning Area. GFS is more aggressive than the European model (ecmwf) with the wrap

around moisture but still brings it into central Georgia. Looking at quantitative precipitation forecast

it appears there is a potential for less than 1 inch of snow in the

mountains Sunday...a dusting as far south as atl/gvl...and flurries

with no accumulation for the rest of the County Warning Area...except the extreme

southeast. All the precipitation ends by 00z Monday except for the northeast

mountains where a few flurries could linger...but these should end

by 06z Monday.

40 to 45 kts 800 mb winds across the County Warning Area Sunday afternoon into

Monday...plus strong cold air advection and being in the back side of the vorticity maximum

will be enough for strong gradient winds. This will also push wind

chills values into the teens and 20s during the day Sunday...and

into the teens and single digits Sunday night.

yep sound spretty accurate. and fyi i was shot down yesterday when I gave pretty much these exact same predicitions 24 hrs ago for north ga.

[DaculaWeather]

Special Weather Statement just came out from FFC:

89>098-102>113-110730-

DADE-WALKER-CATOOSA-WHITFIELD-MURRAY-FANNIN-GILMER-UNION-TOWNS-

CHATTOOGA-GORDON-PICKENS-DAWSON-LUMPKIN-WHITE-FLOYD-BARTOW-

CHEROKEE-FORSYTH-HALL-BANKS-JACKSON-MADISON-POLK-PAULDING-COBB-

NORTH FULTON-GWINNETT-BARROW-CLARKE-OCONEE-OGLETHORPE-WILKES-

HARALSON-CARROLL-DOUGLAS-SOUTH FULTON-DEKALB-ROCKDALE-WALTON-

NEWTON-MORGAN-GREENE-TALIAFERRO-HEARD-COWETA-FAYETTE-CLAYTON-

SPALDING-HENRY-BUTTS-JASPER-PUTNAM-HANCOCK-WARREN-TROUP-

MERIWETHER-PIKE-UPSON-LAMAR-MONROE-JONES-BALDWIN-WASHINGTON-

GLASCOCK-JEFFERSON-HARRIS-TALBOT-TAYLOR-CRAWFORD-BIBB-TWIGGS-

WILKINSON-JOHNSON-EMANUEL-MUSCOGEE-CHATTAHOOCHEE-MARION-SCHLEY-

MACON-PEACH-HOUSTON-BLECKLEY-LAURENS-TREUTLEN-STEWART-WEBSTER-

SUMTER-DOOLY-CRISP-PULASKI-WILCOX-DODGE-TELFAIR-WHEELER-

MONTGOMERY-TOOMBS-

223 PM EST FRI DEC 10 2010

...ARCTIC BLAST HEADED FOR GEORGIA THIS WEEKEND...

ANOTHER ARCTIC BLAST WILL BE SPREADING ACROSS NORTH AND CENTRAL

GEORGIA SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. THIS WILL BRING SOME OF THE COLDEST

AIR OF THE SEASON WITH WIND CHILL READINGS DROPPING INTO THE

SINGLE DIGITS SUNDAY NIGHT ACROSS NORTH GEORGIA.

A STORM SYSTEM IS BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED OVER THE MIDDLE OF THE

COUNTRY THIS AFTERNOON. AS THIS SYSTEM STRENGTHENS...IT WILL MOVE

EAST AND ACROSS NORTH AND CENTRAL GEORGIA. RAIN WILL SPREAD

ACROSS THE AREA AHEAD OF THE FRONT SATURDAY NIGHT. THE COLD FRONT

WILL MOVE ACROSS THE ATLANTA AND COLUMBUS AREAS SHORTLY AFTER

MIDNIGHT SATURDAY NIGHT...AND INTO THE CAROLINAS BY DAYBREAK

SUNDAY.

SOME OF THE RAIN COULD TURN TO SNOW IN NORTH GEORGIA LATE

SATURDAY NIGHT...AND CONTINUE AS LIGHT SNOW THROUGH THE DAY

SUNDAY. LESS THAN 1 INCH OF SNOW IS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS

OF NORTH GEORGIA SUNDAY. LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES WILL SPREAD

ACROSS THE ATLANTA AND ATHENS AREAS WHERE ONLY A DUSTING IS

POSSIBLE SUNDAY AFTERNOON. FLURRIES COULD SPREAD INTO CENTRAL

GEORGIA SUNDAY AFTERNOON BUT NO ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED.

VERY STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 20 TO 30 MPH SUNDAY

WITH SOME GUSTS NEARING 40 MPH. THE WINDS WILL DIMINISH TO 15 TO

30 MPH SUNDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY WILL REMAIN NEARLY

STEADY OR SLOWLY FALL THROUGH THE 30S...AND INTO THE TEENS AND 20S

SUNDAY NIGHT. WIND CHILL VALUES WILL BE IN THE 20S SUNDAY

AFTERNOON ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA...DROPPING INTO THE SINGLE

DIGITS NORTH...AND THE TEENS ACROSS CENTRAL GEORGIA SUNDAY NIGHT.

PEOPLE ACROSS NORTH AND CENTRAL GEORGIA SHOULD BE PREPARED FOR THE

RAPIDLY CHANGING WEATHER CONDITIONS THIS WEEKEND AND BE PREPARED

FOR VERY COLD WEATHER SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT.

[Blue Ridge]

MRX is mentioning the fact that the GFS is all snow in the mountains on the 06z run, the 06z NAM was much slower with the cold so it was partly rain. They said the 12z NAM actually trended a little closer to the 06z GFS and were waiting to see what the 12z GFS said and would possibly be putting out Winter Storm Watches with the afternoon package.

As conservative as MRX tends to be, this talk is somewhat bullish by their standards. Nice to see the local office picking up on this early.

[MotoWeatherman]

As conservative as MRX tends to be, this talk is somewhat bullish by their standards. Nice to see the local office picking up on this early.

From the looks of things you should do pretty decent with this deal.

[NEGa]

well there is now snow (no accumulation) in my forecast for sunday i just really want/hope to see some nice flakes falling at this point. its been 9 months since i have seen any (although those 9 months were awesome lol since it was the early march snowstorm) and i am in withdrawals looks to be an interesting weekend weather wise to say the least

[eyewall]

SATURDAY:

MAJOR CHANGE TO THE FORECAST IN THIS PERIOD. THE LATEST 12Z MODELS

HAVE ALL COME IN WET FOR SATURDAY...PRIMARILY ALONG/EAST OF HWY 1...

IN ASSOC/W A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT IS PROGGED TO DEVELOP

JUST OFFSHORE THE SOUTHEAST COAST. THE INVERTED TROUGH CURRENTLY OFF

THE SE COAST WILL BE INVIGORATED BY THE AFOREMENTIONED H5 SHORTWAVE

MOVING OVER THE CAROLINAS SATURDAY MORNING...BECOMING FURTHER

INVIGORATED SAT EVEN/NIGHT IN ASSOC/W SYNOPTIC HEIGHT FALLS AS A

VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE CLOSES OFF INTO AN H5 LOW AND DIGS SOUTHEAST FROM

THE UPPER MIDWEST INTO THE CENTRAL MS RIVER VALLEY BY 00Z...AND INTO

THE TN/OH VALLEYS BY 12Z SUN. GIVEN GOOD WARM ADVECTION/ISENTROPIC

LIFT...LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND AN EAST/SE (ONSHORE) FLOW...HAVE

DECIDED TO GO AHEAD AND INTRODUCE CATEGORICAL (80%) POPS IN THE

EAST/SE COASTAL PLAIN...TAPERING DOWN TO CHANCE/LOW CHANCE WEST OF

THE TRIANGLE INTO PORTIONS OF THE TRIAD. EXPECT PRECIP AMOUNTS OF

~0.25" DURING THE DAY SAT...HEAVIEST IN THE EAST/SE COASTAL PLAIN.

VERY CHALLENGING TEMPERATURE FCST. EXPECT A HYBRID CAD WEDGE TO SET

UP OVER THE AREA WITHIN A FEW HOURS OF THE ONSET OF RAIN...AND HIGH

TEMPS SAT HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED DOWNWARD AS MUCH AS 5-10F...ESPECIALLY

IN THE COASTAL PLAIN. FCST SOUNDINGS ARE SATURATED AND SOCKED-IN

WITH LOW CEILINGS DURING THE DAY SAT...INDICATING THE POSSIBILITY OF

STEADY TEMPS IN THE MID/UPPER 30S AT FAY/RWI/RDU...WITH THE WARMEST

TEMPS GENERALLY IN THE WESTERN PIEDMONT...ALTHOUGH THEY TOO COULD BE

SOCKED IN WITH TEMPS IN THE 30S DURING THE AFTERNOON IF PRECIP CAN

MAKE IT INTO THE TRIAD BY 18Z. EXPECT TEMPS TO INITIALLY FALL WITH

THE ONSET OF PRECIP IN THE MORNING...REMAINING STEADY IN THE

AFTERNOON...THEN SLOWLY INCREASING IN THE EVENING...PROBABLY NOT

UNTIL AFTER 00Z THOUGH. WILL INDICATE HIGHS RANGING FROM ~42F IN THE

EAST TO ~47F IN THE WEST...ALTHOUGH IT IS POSSIBLE SOME LOCATIONS

MAY NOT MAKE IT OUT OF THE 30S.

SATURDAY NIGHT:

THE WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE OFF THE CAROLINA COAST SAT AFT/EVE IS

PROGGED TO LIFT NORTH THROUGH EASTERN NC INTO EASTERN VA SAT NIGHT.

ADDITIONALLY...A STRONG COLD FRONT ASSOC/W A VIGOROUS UPPER LOW

DIGGING INTO THE TN/OH VALLEYS WILL APPROACH THE CAROLINAS FROM THE

WEST OVERNIGHT...REACHING THE WESTERN PIEDMONT BY ~12Z SUN. CANNOT

RULE OUT LIGHT RAIN ANYWHERE OVER CENTRAL NC SAT NIGHT...HOWEVER...

THE RELATIVE BEST CHANCES APPEAR TO BE IN THE NORTHEAST COASTAL

PLAIN BETWEEN 00-06Z AS THE AFOREMENTIONED SFC LOW LIFTS NORTH

THROUGH EASTERN NC...AND IN THE WESTERN PIEDMONT BETWEEN 06-12Z AS

THE COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. WILL INDICATE CHANCE POPS

EVERYWHERE. AVOIDED HIGHER POPS IN THE WESTERN PIEDMONT SINCE PRECIP

ASSOC/W THE COLD FRONT SHOULD PRIMARILY ARRIVE AFTER SUNRISE

SUNDAY...HOWEVER...IF THE TIMING OF THE FRONT SPEEDS UP...POPS WILL

NEED TO BE INCREASED IN THE WEST. TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO RISE INTO

THE 40S OVERNIGHT AS WARM ADVECTION IN ADVANCE OF THE COLD FRONT

BEGINS TO WEAKEN THE WEDGE FROM THE S/SE. -VINCENT

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

-- Changed Discussion --AS OF 245 PM...

SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW SURFACE AND LOWER LEVELS SUNDAY MORNING

WITH SURFACE COLD FRONT IN THE FOOTHILLS. FRONT WILL RAPIDLY SWEEP

THROUGH CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA DURING THE DAY WHILE UPPER TROUGH

LAGS BACK OVER THE MOUNTAINS. GFS AND CANADIAN MODELS HINT AT A

WEAK BACKSIDE SURFACE TROUGH WELL BEHIND THE MAIN TROUGH... WITH

THE CANADIAN PRODUCING PRECIPITATION AFTER SUNSET SUNDAY.

THE EVENT ENDING IS UNCERTAIN BUT WITH NO REAL IMPACT ON THE PUBLIC.

IF THE DRYING ALOFT IS SLOW AND MINOR LIFT DOES PERSIST... SOME

FLURRIES ARE POSSIBLE SUNDAY NIGHT. ANYTHING PAST 9 TO 10 PM NOT

EXPECTED AND DO NOT SEE MEASURABLE. WOULD FALL ON A WET WARM GROUND

SO CAN NOT SEE A PROBLEM. ALTERNATELY... ENOUGH DRYING WOULD KEEP

SNOW ALOFT FROM DEVELOPING... AND EVENT WOULD END AS RAIN. WILL KEEP

AS RAIN FOR NOW BUT WITH AN EYE TOWARD ALTERNATE SCENARIOS.

ANOTHER RISK MAY BE IF DRY WINDS FAIL TO CLEAR THE ROADS OF

MOISTURE SUNDAY NIGHT. WITH TEMPERATURES INTO THE MID AND UPPER

20S BY SUNRISE MONDAY... SLICK SPOTS ON ROADS MAY DEVELOP.

ALTHOUGH THE GULF AND ATLANTIC ARE OPEN AHEAD OF THE FRONT... WINDS

ARE RELATIVELY WEAK AND MOISTURE INFLUX SHOULD BE WEAK. CONVERGENCE

IN THE LOW LEVEL TROUGH IS NOT STRONG. GOOD DIVERGENCE ALOFT DURING

THE MORNING BECOME NEUTRAL DURING THE AFTERNOON. RAINFALL AMOUNTS

PERHAPS UP TO FOUR TENTHS INCH.

ENOUGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE BEHIND THE FRONT TO KEEP SOME CLOUDINESS

INTO EARLY MONDAY NIGHT. LITTLE IN THE WAY OF CLOUDS BELOW 20000

FEET AFTER THAT.

ECMWF AND CANADIAN BACKING OFF ON PUSHING IN EXTREME COLD AIR INTO

CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA BY SUNRISE MONDAY. THICKNESSES NOW SUGGEST

SOMETHING SIMILAR TO THE RECENT EVENT OR A TOUCH COLDER... WHICH IS

CURRENTLY FORECAST AND ACCEPTED. HAVE DROPPED SUNDAY TEMPERATURES A

BIT TO MID 40S WEST... NEAR 50 CENTRAL AND MID FIFTIES EAST. THIS

IS A DIURNAL RISE OF SEVEN TO TWELVE DEGREES AND GIVEN THE

POTENTIAL FOR RAIN... MAY BE TOO LARGE A RISE BY THREE TO FIVE

DEGREES.

WIND CHILL VALUES MONDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHTS POTENTIALLY DOWN TO SINGLE

DIGITS... WHICH IS JUST ABOVE WIND CHILL ADVISORY CRITERIA.-- End Changed Discussion --

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...

-- Changed Discussion --AS OF 245 PM...

AGAIN ON THE BORDER OF GETTING WINTERY WEATHER WITH THE NEXT WEATHER

SYSTEM. STRONG WEST FLOW ABOVE THE BOUNDARY LAYER WEDNESDAY NIGHT

AND THURSDAY WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG WARM NOSE AT FIVE

THOUSAND FEET... WITH A SHALLOW (1500 FEET) COLD NOSE NEAR THE

SURFACE. THIS WOULD EQUATE TO A COLD RAIN. WEAKER WINDS AND

THEREFORE WEAKER WARM ADVECTION WOULD BRING THE POSSIBILITY OF SNOW

AT ONSET TRANSITIONING TO RAIN. WITH STRONG WEST FLOW CONTINUING UP

TO THE JET LEVEL WITH THIS EVENT... WEAK MOISTURE SUGGESTS AN EVENT

WITH WELL UNDER ONE HALF INCH LIQUID... AND AMOUNT OF NONLIQUID

COMPLETELY UP IN THE AIR THIS FAR OUT. MODELS IN AGREEMENT IN SLOWLY

BRINGING THE SURFACE LOW ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST... NOT ENDING

PRECIPITATION CHANCES UNTIL FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 20S WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND NEAR

FREEZING THURSDAY NIGHT. AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES 40 TO 45

THURSDAY AND ON FRIDAY LOWER 40S NORTHEAST TO NEAR 50 SOUTHWEST.-- End Changed Discussion --

[Itunis]

FFC seems surprisingly bullish considering the GFS is still not putting down an impressive amount of moisture here after temps support snow. GFS is definitely chilly though...highs in the mid 20s for Atlanta Monday and around freezing Tuesday.

[MotoWeatherman]

18z NAM coming in noticeably colder at 850mb with the frontal rain for places like Asheville and far North GA.

[NEGa]

18z NAM coming in noticeably colder at 850mb with the frontal rain for places like Asheville and far North GA.

thats right, just keep feeding us with the false hope guess its time to check out the model run

[DaculaWeather]

well there is now snow (no accumulation) in my forecast for sunday i just really want/hope to see some nice flakes falling at this point. its been 9 months since i have seen any (although those 9 months were awesome lol since it was the early march snowstorm) and i am in withdrawals looks to be an interesting weekend weather wise to say the least

You didn't read the Special Weather Statement?

[WSNC]

Man, I just don't get GSP's afternoon discussion. They mentioned a couple of inches possible in higher elevations for the NWF event. You think they would have learned their lesson from the event last week. They never issued a warning, but places in Avery County (their farthest north county) at the higher elevations had between 1 and 2 feet. This event looks at least as good. It woudn't surprise me if there are blizzard conditions up that way Sunday evening and Monday morning. Am I missing something here? I understand not going crazy in the forecast, but at least mention the potential in the discussion.

[neatlburbwthrguy]

FFC seems surprisingly bullish considering the GFS is still not putting down an impressive amount of moisture here after temps support snow. GFS is definitely chilly though...highs in the mid 20s for Atlanta Monday and around freezing Tuesday.

I agree with that but we need to remember a few things. Firstly, it doesn't have to be freezing (32) at the surface to changeover to snow. We could easily see the rain change to snow at 34-35 degrees on Sunday. Also, they are only calling for a dusting outside the mountains. If there is light snow for even an hour or so that can easily classify as a dusting as it shouldnt have much a of problem sticking to grass/roof etc. considering how cold it has been of late.

[Brian]

It just shows you that every forecast office can be irritating at one point or another, especially if we don't like what they say...lol

[QC_Halo]

Carolina folks might as well pull for the Falcons, the Panthers will have their year again, but give credit where it is due. If Carolina was 10-2 I would be pulling for them. :snowman:

Face it Brian, other than ATLiens everyone hates the Falcons.

If ATL was 10-2 and Carolina was 9-3...im pulling for CAR.

[NEGa]

You didn't read the Special Weather Statement?

yes, but i dont have one for mby. i was very happy to see it, and gives me a little hope to see some flakes. i cant remember the last special statement i had lol. fortunately, i am not in the ffc area, but am covered by gsp part of the issue for here, is downsloping and the trajectory that the precip/winds are coming from. sometimes i can get flurries or a snow shower, sometimes left high and dry. of course being a sunday, several of us may be passing each other as we are out looking for snow