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Potential December 12th-13th threat


BullCityWx

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Oh how i wish...oh how i wish. I want to go to this game to cheer the Panthers..can probably find cheap club levels and stay dry.

No hard feelings, but no one is going to stop the Falcons, they are just about unbeatable right now. :snowman::snowman: Carolina will at least have the first draft pick.

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5-Day Forecast

WSB Meteorologist Kirk Mellish's Exclusive 5-day Forecast

Today...Partly sunny chilly high 51 lows 25-33 Tomorrow...Increasing cloudiness with rain 90% likely at night high 55 low 38-41 Sunday...Light rain showers or flurries ending in the morning very windy and turning much colder high 41 early then falling rapidly, overnight low near 18 Monday Tuesday..Windy and frigid highs only 29-33 low 11-16

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The Panthers will be fine. When Andrew Luck is wearing that Panther uniform next year everything is going to be alright.

Heres the early Super Bowl call......... Eagles vs Pats. Now if only we could get the NFL to play the Super Bowl at one of these stadiums we might be able to watch a Super Bowl with some snow. I'm tired of the Super Bowl always going to some town where the weather is going to be perfect.

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FWIW, the 12Z NAM takes the L throught the Great Lakes. :arrowhead:

I know we are not expecting much here, but you know... have to try and keep hope alive. :popcorn: (Life Support at this moment in time)

Will be interesting to hear about the soundings, as aside from the low to the Great Lakes, it also a lowering pressure coming from AL,MS and into the Carolinas (1009 to 1003). Would be awesome if some in TN/NC could score a frontal thump

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Will be interesting to hear about the soundings, as aside from the low to the Great Lakes, it also a lowering pressure coming from AL,MS and into the Carolinas (1009 to 1003). Would be awesome if some in TN/NC could score a frontal thump

We certainly need to watch this with interest. Given how the area responds to even the smallest snowfall, this could be troublesome for weekend Christmas shoppers and the like in the Tri-Cities.

If the pre-frontal precipitation is liquid, I still believe the Tri-Cities have a shot at a bit of accumulating snowfall due to the flow being so progressive and the amount of moisture available. It will be downright NASTY in the border counties, however. I'm preparing already. scooter.gif

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12z NAM says....NO....cold chasing the precip with 850 zero line right along the back edge.:gun_bandana:

Cold chasing the moisture never works... and with the L being up in the Ohio valley, you can forget any wrap around moisture. This all according to the NAM. On to the GFS. :arrowhead:

As Lookout said in another thread... we are really reaching for something aren't we? LOL :lol:

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Local media finally covering the cold blast this upcoming week; Monday into Tuesday. Spoke of shelter openings and used words like "Old man winter is about to punch us in the face" or "this will be colder than we have experienced this week" and so on...

Im debating on heading up to Avery once again Saturday night. Blizzard conditions are great but snow in Cullowhee is just rare. Hmmm, choice choices :rolleyes:

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Cold chasing the moisture never works... and with the L being up in the Ohio valley, you can forget any wrap around moisture. This all according to the NAM. On to the GFS. :arrowhead:

As Lookout said in another thread... we are really reaching for something aren't we? LOL :lol:

Scattered flurries and snow showers still look like a real possibility Sunday afternoon. But nothing like what was showing a few days ago as the 700mb moisture stays well north. I still would not be surprised if some rogue place in the GA mountains ended up with an inch.

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Scattered flurries and snow showers still look like a real possibility Sunday afternoon. But nothing like what was showing a few days ago as the 700mb moisture stays well north. I still would not be surprised if some rogue place in the GA mountains ended up with an inch.

Yeah I think I'm about done with this one. :arrowhead:

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How confident are you about Knoxville getting these blizzard conditions as well as snow totals? I have to work Monday all day and my job is on the road...Thanks Foothills

I meant blizzard conditions higher in the mountains, but TYS should get some accumulating snow and blowing snow as well.

Those soundings are really nice... but BUFKIT shows a different profile for the same 0z run at the same time 6z. Which one is right? This implies a freezing rain / rain threat although with the strong WAA occuring, I'd be inclined to believe this would be mainly rain for the pre-fontal passage event.

There is some nice WAA occuring though with the very strong southwesterly flow ahead of this system. Notice how the dewpoints rise pretty quickly from 0z to 6z while the temperature fails to drop due to evaporational cooling. This implies some nice WAA allowing the temperatures to stay steady despite the moistening of the profile. The comparison to 1993 is a poor one in my opinion because that storm featured strong northeasterly flow just because the 850mb low passed to the east of WNC. This current system will have strong SW flow at 850mb since the 850mb low is well to the NW of WNC or anywhere in the southeast for that matter. I'm not saying we can't get any snow from the backside of this thing... but in my opinion, despite the questionable soundings, I don't think its very likely that KAVL will be picking up much if any snowfall pre-frontal passage.

I think the "blizzard conditions" threat will mainly be confined to the higher elevations right along the TN/NC border. Knoxville might get some snowshowers and blustery conditions, but they are unlikely to

I didn't mean to make it sound like 1993, just that from what I spoke with my professor ( i didn't have access to any charts then) he was expecting mainly rain for the bulk of the storm in Asheville. The lowering heights and evaporative cooling were enough to overcome the weak WAA. Its possible again, imo, for Asheville, but more like just north and west of there, and higher up. I merely stated I've seen this setup before, and watched a rain fx not verify. Its worth mentioning, imo, that the rain could be mixed w/snow, or even become all snow pretty quickly. Its still a nail-biter for the mountains.

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Will be interesting to hear about the soundings, as aside from the low to the Great Lakes, it also a lowering pressure coming from AL,MS and into the Carolinas (1009 to 1003). Would be awesome if some in TN/NC could score a frontal thump

Just like last nights 0z runs the NAM is much warmer than the GFS at 6z Sunday at Bristol. NAM says mostly rain on the front end while GFS begs otherwise.

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