Potential December 12th-13th threat

[BullCityWx]

This whole thing reminds me of one of my favorite DT quotes.

It doesn't snow because you pray for it or you want it to or because it's shown on a model, it snows because the synoptic pattern allows for it to happen. The fact remains that we have a -pna pattern, the stj is doa and there's going to be no 50/50 low this weekend. We're doomed from the outset.

[tnweathernut]

This whole thing reminds me of one of my favorite DT quotes.

It doesn't snow because you pray for it or you want it to or because it's shown on a model, it snows because the synoptic pattern allows for it to happen. The fact remains that we have a -pna pattern, the stj is doa and there's going to be no 50/50 low this weekend. We're doomed from the outset.

Bingo, we have a winner

[burgertime]

Yep the 12z looks like it's welcoming in the rain for us.

[phil882]

Yeah it has a pretty strong CAD signal. Maybe the some of the CAD experts can chime in.

There is some evidence of CAD, but its mainly from the high pressure located over Central Canada. We really need that high located over the Great Lakes or Northeast to really tap into a good source of cold air. Thats why the wedge depicted here is very transient, since there is no high or deep reservoir of cold air located in the northeast.

[buckeyefan1]

Tennessee and Kentucky is considered the SE, but I guess its a matter of what you consider significant

Kentucky is considered a Mid West state by most people, and Tenn can fall under both the SE and the Mid West just like NC can fall under the Mid Atlantic. Let's not start this discussion again on what state should be where...

[tnweathernut]

Guess we can hope for the backlash here in east Tn per 12z GFS............. Winter in the mid-south is very frustrating. I love snow, but feel less and less appreciative of the nuissance backside events as the years go by.

[tnweathernut]

Would someone please tell that stupid gulf of Alaska low to go away or move west toward the Alleutians?

[FallsLake]

Don't think 12z GFS is as bad as everybody thinks. It does show the low pushing towards the lake but also tries to keep a CAD signiture and possible redevelopment off the coast. We would definitly want this to trend way SE; and we still have time for this to happen. I don't trust any model right now.

[BullCityWx]

Don't think 12z GFS is as bad as everybody thinks. It does show the low pushing towards the lake but also tries to keep a CAD signiture and possible redevelopment off the coast. We would definitly want this to trend way SE; and we still have time for this to happen. I don't trust any model right now.

At *best* it's in-situ cad. If you've got hopes for a big winter storm, they are extremely misplaced with this event.

[SBUWX23]

Don't think 12z GFS is as bad as everybody thinks. It does show the low pushing towards the lake but also tries to keep a CAD signiture and possible redevelopment off the coast. We would definitly want this to trend way SE; and we still have time for this to happen. I don't trust any model right now.

Its not that its trusting the model, its the overall synoptic pattern that is being shown by EVERY model.

[FoothillsNC]

he is a big man! Said he is the worlds tallest weatherman!

Is he taller than 6'6"?

This whole thing reminds me of one of my favorite DT quotes.

It doesn't snow because you pray for it or you want it to or because it's shown on a model, it snows because the synoptic pattern allows for it to happen. The fact remains that we have a -pna pattern, the stj is doa and there's going to be no 50/50 low this weekend. We're doomed from the outset.

I've given up on this weekend storm giving east of the Apps snow. Looks just too warm and the storm doesn't dig as far south as a few days ago showed. It will turn into another big vortex though, and on Sunday there is a good chance at really good backlash snow in Tn, NC, Ga, Ala. A lot of places in the Southeast will now have had atleast a little snow in the air except SC, eastern Ga and srn NC. The pattern keeps repeating. I'd like to see the Greenland block to retrograde some. That might happen beyond 10 days, before the pattern breaks down and we go into Southeast ridging. The GFS has even colder air next weekend. than this outbreak.

Currently 36 degrees almost noon.

[phil882]

The one positive thing to be taken with the 12z gfs in regards to wintry precipitation is the impressive NWFS signature after the system moves though. Could be our first warning criteria event if the gfs verifies.

[BullCityWx]

http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/gfsensemble/members/06zf144.html

Fairly strong agreement on this thing heading way inland.

[FallsLake]

At *best* it's in-situ cad. If you've got hopes for a big winter storm, they are extremely misplaced with this event.

No hopes with what they're (models) showing right now but still not sure if this is what's going to pan out (for good or bad).

[tnweathernut]

No hopes with what they're (models) showing right now but still not sure if this is what's going to pan out (for good or bad).

There is a TON of agreement on the upcoming "pattern evolution" . Even if they are not right , they won't be as wrong as it would take them being to help.

[CAD_Wedge_NC]

There is a TON of agreement on the upcoming "pattern evolution" . Even if they are not right , they won't be as wrong as it would take them being to help.

????

[Amos83]

????

I believe he is saying even if the models are wrong they could not be so wrong that it would help us get a winter storm.

[Cold Rain]

Winter storm threat aside, the 586 dm Greenland bock at 252 hrs, is pretty impressive. Who knows if it will verify, but that just looks insane.

[CAD_Wedge_NC]

Is he taller than 6'6"?

I've given up on this weekend storm giving east of the Apps snow. Looks just too warm and the storm doesn't dig as far south as a few days ago showed. It will turn into another big vortex though, and on Sunday there is a good chance at really good backlash snow in Tn, NC, Ga, Ala. A lot of places in the Southeast will now have had atleast a little snow in the air except SC, eastern Ga and srn NC. The pattern keeps repeating. I'd like to see the Greenland block to retrograde some. That might happen beyond 10 days, before the pattern breaks down and we go into Southeast ridging. The GFS has even colder air next weekend. than this outbreak.

Currently 36 degrees almost noon.

I agree......... the pattern just isn't right. Too many large scale features are saying NO at this point. For instance: High lattitude blocking is progressing toward England, No 50/50 low, No confluence in southern Canada/New England, Ridge out west is too flat, Eastern cold is transient, +EPO, -PNA, MJO heading into an unfavorable phase, Shall I go on???? Bottom line is this.......... If we get a snowstorm out of that pattern (east of the mountains), I will be very shocked.

[tnweathernut]

????

I agree it could have been said better, but it wasn't like i was speaking greek. haha

[NCSNOW]

12z GFS is a cold Rain for the Triad. Temps never get out of 30's during event, then once moisture leaves they drop like a rock. This run has a insutu Damming going on, while coastal plain gets up in the 40-50's for about a 6 hour window. Looks like western VA could be dealing with alot of Freezing Rain. So far as of 6th day of December the airport in Greensboro is runing at -6 below seasonal average. Gonna be a top 10 record cold December from what I'm seeing sitting where we are at right now. 31 w/ windchill in teens at lunch.

[WeatherNC]

I agree......... the pattern just isn't right. Too many large scale features are saying NO at this point. For instance: High lattitude blocking is progressing toward England, No 50/50 low, No confluence in southern Canada/New England, Ridge out west is too flat, Eastern cold is transient, +EPO, -PNA, MJO heading into an unfavorable phase, Shall I go on???? Bottom line is this.......... If we get a snowstorm out of that pattern (east of the mountains), I will be very shocked.

Have to agree also, there are just too many negatives right now to suggest otherwise. Don't know how much stock we can put into the MJO's influence at this point, as it is just emerging from the circle of death and forecasted to be pretty diffuse for the next week or so. This is still around day 7 though, GFS is on the fast side of the envelope, and trending quicker compared to the past several runs. I would put more stock in a Euro solution at this range compared to the global, given verification stats on avg at the 5-7 day range. Parcels will not be onshore for another 4-5 days, and a lot could change between then, but the synoptic indicators we look for in winter storms, are mostly absent, and that is very difficult to overcome at this range.

[EmersonGA]

Kentucky is considered a Mid West state by most people, and Tenn can fall under both the SE and the Mid West just like NC can fall under the Mid Atlantic. Let's not start this discussion again on what state should be where...

Tennessee in the Midwest. I've never heard of that. Midsouth maybe. I will be in Tennessee, though, this weekend. I'm hoping for some backlash snow up in Gatlinburg.

[Stovepipe]

Kentucky is considered a Mid West state by most people, and Tenn can fall under both the SE and the Mid West just like NC can fall under the Mid Atlantic. Let's not start this discussion again on what state should be where...

Yes, let's have this discussion because I'd love to hear you make the case that TN is a Mid West state.

[DCMetroWinston]

12z GFS is a cold Rain for the Triad. Temps never get out of 30's during event, then once moisture leaves they drop like a rock. This run has a insutu Damming going on, while coastal plain gets up in the 40-50's for about a 6 hour window. Looks like western VA could be dealing with alot of Freezing Rain. So far as of 6th day of December the airport in Greensboro is runing at -6 below seasonal average. Gonna be a top 10 record cold December from what I'm seeing sitting where we are at right now. 31 w/ windchill in teens at lunch.

If there is one place that somehow keeps getting blood (SNOW) out of turnips lately, it's the Triad. It just wants to snow there, so never say never when talking about the Triad.

[DaculaWeather]

Yes, let's have this discussion because I'd love to hear you make the case that TN is a Mid West state.

To me, anything that's south of the Mason-Dixon line is south, not mid-west. I grew up in Nashville and went to school in Knoxville and to me, it's always been the south.

[DCMetroWinston]

Let's not reignite the controversy, but Kentucky is in the South.

[WeatherNC]

Nice, 12z EC has a PV setting up shop in PA...

These heights, if they were to verify, would have to be close to record neg departures for this time of year. Scale only goes to -400dm, with something on the order of -560 shown.

[BullCityWx]

Imagine the NWFS if the euro verified....we'd have to go get us another Joe because we'd never hear from snowjoe again.

[kanc2001]

Nice, 12z EC has a PV setting up shop in PA...

These heights, if they were to verify, would have to be close to record neg departures for this time of year. Scale only goes to -400dm, with something on the order of -560 shown.

That's incredible!!