FoothillsNC Posted December 9, 2010 Share Posted December 9, 2010 Upon further review of my soundings, I could see my location run the entire gamut on Wednesday night. By time the precip stops falling, we're at 26. I think you'll be below freezing from Sunday evening around 7 pm until Wednesday 1pm or so. Same here. So probably about 66 hours subfreezing. Not bad. If Wednesday turned out to be cloudy, which very well could, then you can add another 24 hours to that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted December 9, 2010 Author Share Posted December 9, 2010 The Euro is a little bit different at 6 and 7 days than GFS. It has the ridge to the north pressing down , which keeps the cold air in the Lakes, Ohio Valley and east of the Apps in a little longer. It has a 1024 high in western PA late Wednesday and Thursday, with overrunning light precip across Ark, Tenn, Ms, Ala and n. Ga. With some of that likely ZR in Tn, Al and GA, even the 2M temps show that late Wed. and early Thursday. By mid day Thursday its in the 30's but above freezing, in N Ga, much of inland Carolinas and on the west side of th Apps as well with a weak 1024 high it appears near Roanoke. So any precip that gets into the damming regions or even further east into NC could be icy, its too far out to say with any certainty. By Friday it has a 1028 high over the upper Lakes thats wedging across the inverted trough through the TENN Valley, but with warm aloft so no snow, but it couild be a cold rain or maybe somewhere some ice, but the 2M temps aren't that cold looking by then. The Euro has been shifting a lot at even day 5, much less 6 and 7. Yeah, you're right. This run extends the cold wave to Thursday...and is it just me or has 12z model runs been significantly colder than 0z thus far? You want to talk a total and complete mess, that's what the GFS is showing. It doesn't take a whole lot of anything (sn, ip or zr) to cause a mess with how cold it's been. This could definitely be one of those situations where you see zr sticking to pavement which almost never happens here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherNC Posted December 9, 2010 Share Posted December 9, 2010 Gotta love a 1070 High over the north pole! Kinda reminds me of the Jan 77 upper air maps Sig differences at the higher latitudes this run in the extended, compared to the previous. Heights over the Hudson Bay are a good 300-400m lower this run compared to 0z. Don't like the look of that map you posted for day 7, looks like a warm-up, with systems continuing to track through the center of the country should any develop. Also not good that the cold air is displaced on the other side of the Pole, would like to at-least have a lobe or two on this side for the chance of another outbreak in the next couple weeks. But any way you look at it, this set-up looks like ass for day 10 on the EC, at-least to those wanting a shot at some winter-wx. Thankfully, it will most likely be wrong in one form or another, but that east-based NAO has been persistent Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amos83 Posted December 9, 2010 Share Posted December 9, 2010 Yeah, you're right. This run extends the cold wave to Thursday...and is it just me or has 12z model runs been significantly colder than 0z thus far? You want to talk a total and complete mess, that's what the GFS is showing. It doesn't take a whole lot of anything (sn, ip or zr) to cause a mess with how cold it's been. This could definitely be one of those situations where you see zr sticking to pavement which almost never happens here. Last week I mentioned this possible scenerio..... With the stretch of cold we are experiencing and then will experience first of next week we could easily see what would normally be a minor ice even turn into something more due to how cold the ground temps will be by Wednesday. Models are almost useless to look at past 3 or 4 days and I think that will remain true as they will try to break down the pattern way to fast. I just don't by the cold wave next week being as progressive as some of the earlier runs today had shown. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FLO Posted December 9, 2010 Share Posted December 9, 2010 Last week I mentioned this possible scenerio..... With the stretch of cold we are experiencing and then will experience first of next week we could easily see what would normally be a minor ice even turn into something more due to how cold the ground temps will be by Wednesday. Models are almost useless to look at past 3 or 4 days and I think that will remain true as they will try to break down the pattern way to fast. I just don't by the cold wave next week being as progressive as some of the earlier runs today had shown. Haven't all of these events looked good this far out? I really dont want to get my hopes up for next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted December 9, 2010 Share Posted December 9, 2010 Yeah, you're right. This run extends the cold wave to Thursday...and is it just me or has 12z model runs been significantly colder than 0z thus far? You want to talk a total and complete mess, that's what the GFS is showing. It doesn't take a whole lot of anything (sn, ip or zr) to cause a mess with how cold it's been. This could definitely be one of those situations where you see zr sticking to pavement which almost never happens here. Yeah its not a given at all, almost pointless to even mention yet since the models are absolutely terrible at day 6 and 7 lately. Synoptically I could see some light precip coming into Tenn, Al, Ga on the heels of warm advection around late Wednesday, but it looks very light. Of course light ZR is bad news. The models keep most of it out of NC and SC though. Theres good damming shown on Euro by day 9 or 10, but again it will change no doubt. I'm still sold on very cold for NC for this event though, we get excellent advection cold for 2 days, then some damming and high clouds will do their magic probably Wed and Thursday. I enjoy the first 2 days of really cold, but after that I'm ready for some warmth. We'll probably get into a lengthy cloudy, cold period..typical damming of winter months. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amos83 Posted December 9, 2010 Share Posted December 9, 2010 Haven't all of these events looked good this far out? I really dont want to get my hopes up for next week. Yeah def. nothing to get excited about next week. All I'm saying is that with the ground temp being so cold it will only take a little light precip to make a big mess. Normally we do not have such an extended cold period to prime the ground like we are experiencing so an otherwise non-even light shower normally could turn into a more. Just something to keep an eye on as we head into middle and end of next week incase something pops up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DCMetroWinston Posted December 9, 2010 Share Posted December 9, 2010 Wow, it is amazing how everyone was throwing the towel last night and this morning, and suddenly it's ALL HANDS ON DECK! Got to love it! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lee Posted December 9, 2010 Share Posted December 9, 2010 Sig differences at the higher latitudes this run in the extended, compared to the previous. Heights over the Hudson Bay are a good 300-400dm lower this run compared to 0z. Don't like the look of that map you posted for day 7, looks like a warm-up, with systems continuing to track through the center of the country should any develop. Also not good that the cold air is displaced on the other side of the Pole, would like to at-least have a lobe or two on this side for the chance of another outbreak in the next couple weeks. But any way you look at it, this set-up looks like ass for day 10 on the EC, at-least to those wanting a shot at some winter-wx. Thankfully, it will most likely be wrong in one form or another, but that east-based NAO has been persistent Agree 100%, at least for the SE. Better not post that on the main forum unless you want to get ridiculed and in an argument Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted December 9, 2010 Share Posted December 9, 2010 Wow, it is amazing how everyone was throwing the towel last night and this morning, and suddenly it's ALL HANDS ON DECK! Got to love it! exactly which event are you referring to? Nothing's really changed, except maybe not turning the ultra cold that was poised a couple days ago. The progression was always really: warmup next couple days, prefrontal rains in Southeast Saturday night/early Sunday, sharply colder Sunday night and lasting until Wednesday. The only thing possibly different is the big upslope snows and the extreme cold for south Ga and Florida...still plenty cold though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
neatlburbwthrguy Posted December 9, 2010 Share Posted December 9, 2010 exactly which event are you referring to? Nothing's really changed, except maybe not turning the ultra cold that was poised a couple days ago. The progression was always really: warmup next couple days, prefrontal rains in Southeast Saturday night/early Sunday, sharply colder Sunday night and lasting until Wednesday. The only thing possibly different is the big upslope snows and the extreme cold for south Ga and Florida...still plenty cold though. i know it is still up in the air but with latest model runs today, should north al and north ga still see some light snow on the backend of the front on sunday? sorry if this has been answered i have just gotten confused reading through all the posts. thank you in advance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEGa Posted December 9, 2010 Share Posted December 9, 2010 Yep at this point it's pretty much storm cancel. Thursday of next week still looks interesting with maybe some ZR? trying to get caught up on a couple of pages but all i can say is BAH HUMBUG - the cold is coming in at times, but any and all chances for frozen seem to be in the perpetual 7-10 day range. not even going to think about it or look that far out in time for a while. unless i see a map in a post, forget the 7 day gfs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEGa Posted December 9, 2010 Share Posted December 9, 2010 at 144hrs, the euro looks a lot colder for our next potential event. I'm not sure if it's going to generate any moisture or not though. Somebody should start a new thread for potential 15/16th event. why bother - thats too far out at this point Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itunis Posted December 9, 2010 Share Posted December 9, 2010 Euro and Canadian are looking pretty cold with both showing 850s below -15C here (Canadian is close to -18C). The GFS only gets us to -12 or -13 but that would still be a high below freezing as 850s bottom out Monday afternoon. Maybe more interesting is the Canadian showing -12C 850s down to Jacksonville I've given up on anything more than novelty flurries for now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
neatlburbwthrguy Posted December 9, 2010 Share Posted December 9, 2010 Euro and Canadian are looking pretty cold with both showing 850s below -15C here (Canadian is close to -18C). The GFS only gets us to -12 or -13 but that would still be a high below freezing as 850s bottom out Monday afternoon. Maybe more interesting is the Canadian showing -12C 850s down to Jacksonville I've given up on anything more than novelty flurries for now. twc added 40% rain/snow to atlanta forecast for sunday and still has flurries for monday. what do you see in the latest maps that make it not look so good? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itunis Posted December 9, 2010 Share Posted December 9, 2010 twc added 40% rain/snow to atlanta forecast for sunday and still has flurries for monday. what do you see in the latest maps that make it not look so good? A met can answer this better than I, but basically we were never in a position to get more than backside flurries/light snow from this system due to the track of the low. We'll probably see a few flakes, and maybe people in the N GA mountains will get a dusting. Where are you at by the way? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeyefan1 Posted December 9, 2010 Share Posted December 9, 2010 EDIT: Wrong thread...lol...back to your regular scheduled program Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
neatlburbwthrguy Posted December 9, 2010 Share Posted December 9, 2010 A met can answer this better than I, but basically we were never in a position to get more than backside flurries/light snow from this system due to the track of the low. We'll probably see a few flakes, and maybe people in the N GA mountains will get a dusting. Where are you at by the way? I am in Dunwoody. But if me driving an hour or so north towards dawsonville or north of gainesville means I will see a good bit more snow than I will definitely do so, especially since it will be on a Sunday and I won't have to be at work. You gotta think north ga from dawsonville gainesville north should pick up an inch out of this... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherfide Posted December 9, 2010 Share Posted December 9, 2010 twc added 40% rain/snow to atlanta forecast for sunday and still has flurries for monday. what do you see in the latest maps that make it not look so good? Parent low is tracking too far north for good wrap-around. Cold air does not arrive in time to change rain to snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itunis Posted December 9, 2010 Share Posted December 9, 2010 I am in Dunwoody. But if me driving an hour or so north towards dawsonville or north of gainesville means I will see a good bit more snow than I will definitely do so, especially since it will be on a Sunday and I won't have to be at work. You gotta think north ga from dawsonville gainesville north should pick up an inch out of this... Book a hotel at one of the ski places in NC if you really want to see snow. You'd be driving an hour to see snow showers at best if you go to Dawsonville or Gainesville, or even Blairsville most likely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
neatlburbwthrguy Posted December 9, 2010 Share Posted December 9, 2010 Book a hotel at one of the ski places in NC if you really want to see snow. You'd be driving an hour to see snow showers at best if you go to Dawsonville or Gainesville, or even Blairsville most likely. I usually stay at my friends cabin at about 2,500 feet near gatlinburg if i really want to see snow. especially on the ride up there going over the smoky mountains at newfound gap is awesome at over 5,500 feet. But there is a big difference between driving 1 hour and 3-4 hours. Goal is to be able to see decent snow and not drive more than an hour. That is my hope for this weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dsaur Posted December 9, 2010 Share Posted December 9, 2010 Yeah, you're right. This run extends the cold wave to Thursday...and is it just me or has 12z model runs been significantly colder than 0z thus far? You want to talk a total and complete mess, that's what the GFS is showing. It doesn't take a whole lot of anything (sn, ip or zr) to cause a mess with how cold it's been. This could definitely be one of those situations where you see zr sticking to pavement which almost never happens here. It is up to 47 here with full sun and no wind, yet it feels like 37 because the ground is radiating so much cold. T Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WXinCanton Posted December 9, 2010 Share Posted December 9, 2010 I am in Dunwoody. But if me driving an hour or so north towards dawsonville or north of gainesville means I will see a good bit more snow than I will definitely do so, especially since it will be on a Sunday and I won't have to be at work. You gotta think north ga from dawsonville gainesville north should pick up an inch out of this... If you want to do a day trip, Drive up Brasstown Bald Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
oconeexman Posted December 9, 2010 Share Posted December 9, 2010 why bother - thats too far out at this point I totally agree with you. Let's get through this non-event or half *ss event this sunday/monday and then.... IF there is still a possibility of winte4r wx according to the models then we can start a thread. Baahhh Humbug with ya! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
neatlburbwthrguy Posted December 9, 2010 Share Posted December 9, 2010 If you want to do a day trip, Drive up Brasstown Bald not a bad idea if you think they will pick up at least an inch or two on sunday...only 86 miles from my house! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEGa Posted December 9, 2010 Share Posted December 9, 2010 I am in Dunwoody. But if me driving an hour or so north towards dawsonville or north of gainesville means I will see a good bit more snow than I will definitely do so, especially since it will be on a Sunday and I won't have to be at work. You gotta think north ga from dawsonville gainesville north should pick up an inch out of this... um, not sure where you are getting this from. i dont think accumulating snow has been mentioned at all lately for the weekend event. this set up (wrap around) may produce some flurries, but it rarely works out to give n ga snow (other than maybe the highest elevations towards suches, brasstown bald, etc) I usually stay at my friends cabin at about 2,500 feet near gatlinburg if i really want to see snow. especially on the ride up there going over the smoky mountains at newfound gap is awesome at over 5,500 feet. But there is a big difference between driving 1 hour and 3-4 hours. Goal is to be able to see decent snow and not drive more than an hour. That is my hope for this weekend. dont count on it being within an hours drive this weekend (decent snow) If you want to do a day trip, Drive up Brasstown Bald see above that is the best place in ga for snow and many times may be the only place in ga (at least that is accessible) with snow I totally agree with you. Let's get through this non-event or half *ss event this sunday/monday and then.... IF there is still a possibility of winte4r wx according to the models then we can start a thread. Baahhh Humbug with ya! lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itunis Posted December 9, 2010 Share Posted December 9, 2010 not a bad idea if you think they will pick up at least an inch or two on sunday...only 86 miles from my house! Even there there is no promise of accumulating snow, but that's about a good a place you can get within GA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lilj4425 Posted December 9, 2010 Share Posted December 9, 2010 I am in Dunwoody. But if me driving an hour or so north towards dawsonville or north of gainesville means I will see a good bit more snow than I will definitely do so, especially since it will be on a Sunday and I won't have to be at work. You gotta think north ga from dawsonville gainesville north should pick up an inch out of this... Yeah, an inch of rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
neatlburbwthrguy Posted December 9, 2010 Share Posted December 9, 2010 um, not sure where you are getting this from. i dont think accumulating snow has been mentioned at all lately for the weekend event. this set up (wrap around) may produce some flurries, but it rarely works out to give n ga snow (other than maybe the highest elevations towards suches, brasstown bald, etc) dont count on it being within an hours drive this weekend (decent snow) I am not a met but in my opinion from examining maps/forecasts to the best of my ability, I feel the higher elevations of northeast ga could potentially see an inch of snowfall on sunday. yes it is not eched in stone but I think there will be enough precip and instability on the backend to produce a couple hours of snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rosie Posted December 9, 2010 Share Posted December 9, 2010 Sunday...Cloudy with a 40 percent chance of snow or rain. Windy. Highs in the upper 30s. Sunday Night...Mostly cloudy with a 40 percent chance of snow showers. Windy. Lows around 16. Monday...Sunny...windy. Highs around 30. I would not drive an hour for this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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