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Potential December 12th-13th threat

BullCityWx

By BullCityWx,
in Southeastern States

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Marion_NC_WX

Marion_NC_WX

Posted
Posted

I'm not sure what the records are for this time or for Ga, but its a quick cold shot..just late Sunday until Tuesday. By Wednesday big warming aloft, but a tight boundary from NC to the northern plains. Theres alittle opportunity for warm advection on late Tuesday but more likely Wednesday somewhere in extreme n. Ga to NC maybe upstate SC to get some moisture while its still cold enough, but the warm aloft won't be long to arrive. So basically, theres not much good on this run, just a bitter Monday for the Southeast and quick moderating thereafter.

The quick moderation of temps is very typical of the La Nina pattern as the pacific jet comes raging in mid to late week. That said the numerical data from the 12z GFS is still quite impressive for my location.

Just to summarize what it says...we should have a frontal passage somewhere around 12z Sunday...since the storm is so far north and such a fast mover the precip from this event has defintely been minimized.

But the cold will not be slighted...here is the numerical data for Morganton-Lenoir Apt.

Sun 18z: 2M Temps...30, NW wind @20, -6 850mb

Mon 0z: 2M Temps...23, -10 850mb

Mon 12z: 2M Temps...13, -18 850's

The coldest temps may infact come Tuesday Morning if the GFS is correct, the model data for the first time has winds slacking off Monday Night into Tuesday morning, resulting in some single digits

Tue 0z: 14 degrees

Tue 6z: 10 degrees

Tue 12z: 7 degrees...with a NW wind @7 mph...

Again thats the numerical first model run I can think of since tracking this event where the winds die down Monday Night...that's something to keep an eye on. BTW, Tuesday's high on the GFS is a balmy 24. Then as we get to Wednesday, things begin to moderate as the winds turn west and WSW at 850mb.

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FoothillsNC

FoothillsNC

Posted
Posted

eyewall, foothills, cheeznado, and other mets out there...

Several folks have mentioned the great potential for upslope snow Monday. One if i can recall mentioned the possibility of it being more substantial than the previous event; 12/4 - 12/6. Any thoughts? TIA

its not really impressive at all on the GFS, the low is so far to the north and very quickly that surface winds are too westerly with no good tap from the Lakes. The Euro looked a lot better for more upslope, but its just as wishy washy and now has the surface low futher east than its older runs too, but would be a little bit ofupslope. Not more than the last event though, I don't think. If the vortex had closed off over DC or NYC like it had for a few runs, then it would have been epic. But the flow (pacific) is so progressive that the cold is in and out in a flash.

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Local Yokel Wx

Local Yokel Wx

Posted
Posted

its not really impressive at all on the GFS, the low is so far to the north and very quickly that surface winds are too westerly with no good tap from the Lakes. The Euro looked a lot better for more upslope, but its just as wishy washy and now has the surface low futher east than its older runs too, but would be a little bit ofupslope. Not more than the last event though, I don't think. If the vortex had closed off over DC or NYC like it had for a few runs, then it would have been epic. But the flow (pacific) is so progressive that the cold is in and out in a flash.

Thanks!

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Brian

Brian

Posted
Posted

I for one want to see the Euro ans UKMET before calling storm cancel- remember this storm is still not really in the RAOB network yet, and I have a hard time believing last night's UK and Euro will be so wrong.

So there is some glimmer of hope?????:weight_lift::weight_lift:

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FoothillsNC

FoothillsNC

Posted
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The quick moderation of temps is very typical of the La Nina pattern as the pacific jet comes raging in mid to late week. That said the numerical data from the 12z GFS is still quite impressive for my location.

The coldest temps may infact come Tuesday Morning if the GFS is correct, the model data for the first time has winds slacking off Monday Night into Tuesday morning, resulting in some single digits

Tue 0z: 14 degrees

Tue 6z: 10 degrees

Tue 12z: 7 degrees...with a NW wind @7 mph...

Again thats the numerical first model run I can think of since tracking this event where the winds die down Monday Night...that's something to keep an eye on. BTW, Tuesday's high on the GFS is a balmy 24. Then as we get to Wednesday, things begin to moderate as the winds turn west and WSW at 850mb.

Yes, I believe Tuesday will the coldest morning in NC. But I don't think winds go completely calm, thats a tough call, but the surface high is weak and far west, and the pressure pattern is still pretty tight.For GA and Ala, I think they would radiate much better but won't have the deepest cold air. I've always thought for my area anyway, the lows won't beat what just occurred, however the high temps will be lower than what just occurred, which was 32 for 2 consecutive days. I'm expecting around upper 20's on Monday and around freezing on Tuesday here. You're probably certain to be below freezing from Sunday around later afternoon (5'ish) until Wednesday midday or afternoon, possibly 72 hours ..if you don't make it to 32 by Tuesday afternoon, then theres a small chance you won't make it back above freezing until Thursday, as Wednesday could be cloudy, with some damming and precip.Actually Thursday could too, but I'm not prepared to go for a subfreezing spell that last from Sunday evening until Friday midday...that would be somethng.

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Cheeznado

Cheeznado

Posted
Posted

So there is some glimmer of hope?????:weight_lift::weight_lift:

The 12Z CMC is slower/colder than the GFS, a good sign. I do not think that this will will be some sort of really good snow east of the mountains even if last nights Euro verifies, but hope is still there for a nice event in the NW corner of NC and far eastern TN. If that looks like it will happen, I will be making a road trip!

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Cheeznado

Cheeznado

Posted
Posted

Probably still rain for NEGA (Athens)???

North Georgia probably only has a chance of flurries no matter what, the initial shot will be rain for sure, sorry. The only question for us is the extent of the cold and whether we get some snow showers late Sunday/Sunday night.

Up north in NC and TN is where the snow could be more than what the latest GFS/NAM show.

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Lee

Lee

Posted
Posted

North Georgia probably only has a chance of flurries no matter what, the initial shot will be rain for sure, sorry. The only question for us is the extent of the cold and whether we get some snow showers late Sunday/Sunday night.

Up north in NC and TN is where the snow could be more than what the latest GFS/NAM show.

Yeah, they really backed off from what was being shown yesterday. If the latest is right, just basically run of the mill upslope stuff.

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FoothillsNC

FoothillsNC

Posted
Posted

That fzrn scenario later in the week on the GFS would be a huge mess. It seems we rarely get freezing rain when the ground is so cold.

The Euro is a little bit different at 6 and 7 days than GFS. It has the ridge to the north pressing down , which keeps the cold air in the Lakes, Ohio Valley and east of the Apps in a little longer. It has a 1024 high in western PA late Wednesday and Thursday, with overrunning light precip across Ark, Tenn, Ms, Ala and n. Ga. With some of that likely ZR in Tn, Al and GA, even the 2M temps show that late Wed. and early Thursday. By mid day Thursday its in the 30's but above freezing, in N Ga, much of inland Carolinas and on the west side of th Apps as well with a weak 1024 high it appears near Roanoke. So any precip that gets into the damming regions or even further east into NC could be icy, its too far out to say with any certainty. By Friday it has a 1028 high over the upper Lakes thats wedging across the inverted trough through the TENN Valley, but with warm aloft so no snow, but it couild be a cold rain or maybe somewhere some ice, but the 2M temps aren't that cold looking by then. The Euro has been shifting a lot at even day 5, much less 6 and 7.

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