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Potential December 12th-13th threat


BullCityWx

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No, rain moved through already by the time cold is there.

Then what is the blue line in front of all the green/blue moisture and what did he mean by music city miracle since we aren't talking football? Sorry, still trying to understand all of this.

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Then what is the blue line in front of all the green/blue moisture and what did he mean by music city miracle since we aren't talking football? Sorry, still trying to understand all of this.

to my crappy untrained eye per the 12z NAM Nashville does pretty well with that look. I could be wrong and probably am. That's what I meant by "music city miracle"

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Im not an expert....but if you combine the moisture with the 540 line...the models are now showing a better shot of maybe some snow for North AL and North GA. Maybe some mixing also. I love playing the model flip game.

That is what I was thinking. Looks like the blue line is just in front of all that heavy blue moisture and the path looks like it may go into and over Atl and Columbia or northern SC, if only by a little. But I don't get it I guess.

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the NAM is nothing to get excited about east of the Apps. Its the typical cold front passage, showers ahead of it, and immediate clearing and turning sharply colder for the Carolinas in the afternoon. Just wrap around and upslope snow for Tenn, NC mountains on Sunday afternoon and night.

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is north georgia considered east of the apps?

Where in north GA are you and really most of GA is south and west of them as they are in the NE corner there. GA would certainly see a better shot at back end flakes (even aside from using 1 ply toilet paper).

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Where in north GA are you and really most of GA is south and west of them as they are in the NE corner there. GA would certainly see a better shot at back end flakes (even aside from using 1 ply toilet paper).

Im in dunwoody, ga. northeast of atlanta. yea we are probably southwest of the apps. so maybe well see a little backend ligh snow on sunday...thanks

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Then what is the blue line in front of all the green/blue moisture and what did he mean by music city miracle since we aren't talking football? Sorry, still trying to understand all of this.

The line is there for your convenience only, the refs have the final say so in where the snow line will set up :)

Where in north GA are you and really most of GA is south and west of them as they are in the NE corner there. GA would certainly see a better shot at back end flakes (even aside from using 1 ply toilet paper).

9 out of 10 times only Rosie and NeGa would benefit in wrap around in Ga. I only remember one decent wrap around in Atl and that was in the rockin' 70's. Mostly it is just partly sunny flurries when the last bit of moisture gets wrung out by the caa. T

Edit: I badly need some cold rain, if I can't get something that will bounce.

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The line is there for your convenience only, the refs have the final say so in where the snow line will set up :)

9 out of 10 times only Rosie and NeGa would benefit in wrap around in Ga. I only remember one decent wrap around in Atl and that was in the rockin' 70's. Mostly it is just partly sunny flurries when the last bit of moisture gets wrung out by the caa. T

Most likely true if you are talking about accumulation. I had mainly flurries in mind which out my way would be a very tall order. As of now I am expecting lousy rain with the front and then cold and dry for a few days.

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Most likely true if you are talking about accumulation. I had mainly flurries in mind which out my way would be a very tall order. As of now I am expecting lousy rain with the front and then cold and dry for a few days.

I agree. A few flurries Sunday after the cold front passes which looks like around 12z for Ga. The 12Z gfs is way furthern north , more like the Euro, has the surface low right over Chicago at 60 hours., with just prefront rain here and all the Southeast, a really quick moving front. Maybe extreme nw NC valleys will have surface temps very close to 32 for the rain event, which could lead to some light icing but temps won't be that low, probably 32 to 34 there. edit Just looking athe 850's again on the GFS it has thickness less than 546 in nw NC the entire time and 850 close to zero to plus 2 so, we can scrutinize that later for parts of western Va and nw NC mountains.

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I agree. A few flurries Sunday after the cold front passes which looks like around 12z for Ga. The 12Z gfs is way furthern north , more like the Euro, has the surface low right over Chicago at 60 hours., with just prefront rain here and all the Southeast, a really quick moving front. Maybe extreme nw NC valleys will have surface temps very close to 32 for the rain event, which could lead to some light icing but temps won't be that low, probably 32 to 34 there. edit Just looking athe 850's again on the GFS it has thickness less than 546 in nw NC the entire time and 850 close to zero to plus 2 so, we can scrutinize that later for parts of western Va and nw NC mountains.

Yeah the mountains will be an interesting area to watch for sure. I know it is painful for us out here but I am trying to make my fellow NC people east of the apps realize we are just going to have to wait it out and look down the road. I am crossing my fingers something will come into the picture just before Christmas but of course that is not really scientific.

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the -16 at 850 covers almost all of NC except the southeast quarter, and the 2m temps Monday are down there on the GFS. The Freezing line runs from just south of Wilmington west toward Athens, and bows south of Atlanta during the middle of the day Monday. A colder outbreak than the last one.

For Florida, this looks just like a one day cold snap. On the west side of th strong baroclinic boundary, there could be a clipper type or warm advection snow streaking from the Plains toward western Ky or Tenn by late Tuesday but it looks weak. And by Wednesday almost a zonal flow already from west to east. So this cold blast is extremely quick, esp the further south and west you get in the Southeast.

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So the record cold from a day or 2 ago is not going to be happening this time???

It will still get cold but not as impressive as originally progged (I had a feeling that would happen). I don't know what the records are at ATL for early next week so I am not sure on "record breaking". What it comes down to is this entire thing smells of fail for most winter weather fans in our neck of the woods.

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So the record cold from a day or 2 ago is not going to be happening this time???

I'm not sure what the records are for this time or for Ga, but its a quick cold shot..just late Sunday until Tuesday. By Wednesday big warming aloft, but a tight boundary from NC to the northern plains. Theres alittle opportunity for warm advection on late Tuesday but more likely Wednesday somewhere in extreme n. Ga to NC maybe upstate SC to get some moisture while its still cold enough, but the warm aloft won't be long to arrive. So basically, theres not much good on this run, just a bitter Monday for the Southeast and quick moderating thereafter. By midweek and late week the warmth in Texas is barreling toward the Southeast on zonal flow. The NAO block is strong, but well north too, which still allows a torching to start in Texas and probably get the Southeast temps back up to normal or maybe above by late week. By Friday the entire southern half of the country is very warm. If I recall the Euro had a look like this as well. I'll be ready for the warmer weather, but have a feeling a lot of clouds will mute the warm up some.

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I'm not sure what the records are for this time or for Ga, but its a quick cold shot..just late Sunday until Tuesday. By Wednesday big warming aloft, but a tight boundary from NC to the northern plains. Theres alittle opportunity for warm advection on late Tuesday but more likely Wednesday somewhere in extreme n. Ga to NC maybe upstate SC to get some moisture while its still cold enough, but the warm aloft won't be long to arrive. So basically, theres not much good on this run, just a bitter Monday for the Southeast and quick moderating thereafter. By midweek and late week the warmth in Texas is barreling toward the Southeast on zonal flow. The NAO block is strong, but well north too, which still allows a torching to start in Texas and probably get the Southeast temps back up to normal or maybe above by late week. By Friday the entire southern half of the country is very warm. If I recall the Euro had a look like this as well. I'll be ready for the warmer weather, but have a feeling a lot of clouds will mute the warm up some.

Thank goodness! I will love the warmth over this miserable cold with no snow to show for it.

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