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Potential December 12th-13th threat

BullCityWx

By BullCityWx,
in Southeastern States

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jshetley

jshetley

Posted
Posted

Certainly hope this is wrong. It's gone from a big event to showing us getting a sprinkle here if we are lucky. Have a feeling this will be the way things go the rest of the winter as all the action stays out west. We've already had the coldest weather we'll see until next winter.

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Cheeznado

Cheeznado

Posted
Posted

Euro much much better than the GFS- like the UKMET has been all along. Very strong short wave bombs out over the southern Apps- this means some synoptic snow for northern/western NC- if these two verify, western NC gets hammered.

Cold here, not earthshaking but colder than the GFS, at least one day 30 or below. Thank goodness for this, hope is still alive.

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phil882

phil882

Posted
Posted

Euro much much better than the GFS- like the UKMET has been all along. Very strong short wave bombs out over the southern Apps- this means some synoptic snow for northern/western NC- if these two verify, western NC gets hammered.

Cold here, not earthshaking but colder than the GFS, at least one day 30 or below. Thank goodness for this, hope is still alive.

Lol did the Euro and the GFS just switch places at 0z tonight?

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nzucker

nzucker

Posted
Posted

Good point about the ridge, the GFS breaks it down faster than the Euro. The GFS has a day or so cold shot for you in Georgia. It keeps it around a bit longer for NC before warm advection takes over at 850 mb.

The cold shot doesn't last that long for the Southeast but it's going to be an intense one with -10C 850mb temperatures probably making it well past Atlanta into Southern Georgia and possibly the Florida Panhandle. Gusty winds should limit radiational cooling but I could still see much of northern Florida and Georgia/Alabama/SC getting into the teens with even some single digits popping up in the higher elevations. The next night would probably be low 20s/upper teens for much of the region as the airmass moderates but better radiational cooling ensues, still a hard freeze but not earth-shattering. It really just depends on how wrapped up the system is...you'll get brutally cold if more of the PV lobe phases in like the ECM runs and bombs the low to around 975mb. It'll be warmer if the initial energy runs out ahead of the storm like the GFS.

We've already had the coldest weather we'll see until next winter.

unsure.gif Huh? The 850mb -10C contour tonight is around Richmond, VA and we're still seeing widespread low 20s and upper teens in the South. You're going to get colder that following the storm...the -10C contour is guaranteed to get into Georgia if not Florida, it's a few days later in the season, ground temperatures will be colder and there will be some snow cover in the Appalachian upslope regions, etc.

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NCSNOW

NCSNOW

Posted
Posted

I noticed in the Euro thread Tombo said several frames were light to mod frozen precip for SE Ky, East TN and W NC on the Euro.

Heres the quote:

"hr 102 sub 988 low over dover del...850s run from raliegh to hagerstown to watertown...lgt to mod precip in w pa western nc, eastern ten, ky, and wv

Maybe Robert or Burger have access to better Euro information and can interput exactly what it means for our specific locations when they get on latter this morning.

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Itunis

Itunis

Posted
Posted

Euro much much better than the GFS- like the UKMET has been all along. Very strong short wave bombs out over the southern Apps- this means some synoptic snow for northern/western NC- if these two verify, western NC gets hammered.

Cold here, not earthshaking but colder than the GFS, at least one day 30 or below. Thank goodness for this, hope is still alive.

6Z GFS is a good bit colder than the 0Z at least, but not close to the ridiculous -18C 850s it was showing a day or so ago. I don't think it should come as a surprise that models are moderating a bit on the cold though. There will obviously be some more model waffling before this "event", but my money will always be on a trend toward climo. I still think FFC's call for 42 on Tuesday is a bit high though :sun:

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DaculaWeather

DaculaWeather

Posted
Posted

THE HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER

ncep_80.gif

CAMP SPRINGS, MD

PRELIMINARY EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION

PRELIMINARY EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSIONNWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD400 AM EST THU DEC 09 2010 VALID 12Z MON DEC 13 2010 - 12Z THU DEC 16 2010

OPERATIONAL MODELS AND ENSEMBLE MEANS CONTINUE TO EXPECT A VERY STRONG/AMPLIFIED WRN RIDGE-ERN TROF PATTERN DURING THE FIRST HALFOF THE MEDIUM RANGE PERIOD... WITH SOME 3-5 STANDARD DEVIATION ANOMALIES INDICATED WITH BOTH THE SRN PART OF THE ERN CONUS TROF AND ASSOC WITH THE STRONG RIDGE BUILDING OVER/NEAR GREENLAND. A TREND TOWARD FLATTER MEAN FLOW OVER THE CONUS IS FCST THRU MIDWEEK. THIS LATE PERIOD EVOLUTION IS REASONABLY WELL SUPPORTEDBY TELECONNECTIONS RELATIVE TO THE STRONG POSITIVE HGT ANOMALY CENTERS FCST OVER OR NEAR THE CNTRL-WRN ALEUTIANS AND GREENLAND.

MEANINGFUL DETAIL DIFFS PERSIST WITH THE FCST EVOLUTION OFSIGNIFICANT LOW PRESSURE TRACKING INTO THE NORTHEAST BY MON-TUE. CONTINUING FROM THE LATTER STAGES OF THE SHORT RANGE PERIOD... THE GFS IS A FAST EXTREME WITH THIS SYSTEM SO ITS SOLN IS NOTCONSIDERED. REMAINING MODELS AND ENSEMBLE MEANS HAVE DISPLAYED ENOUGH RUN TO RUN DISCONTINUITY WITH PRECISE DETAILS OF MID LVL ENERGY TO FAVOR MAINTAINING A CONSENSUS/COMPROMISE SCENARIO THAT REDUCES CONTINUITY CHANGES AS MUCH AS POSSIBLE. THE MOST AGREEABLE CLUSTER OF SOLNS INDICATES THAT THE GFS/GEFS MEAN MAY BEA LITTLE TOO QUICK WITH THE EXPECTED FLATTENING TREND MID-LATE PERIOD SO PREFERENCE IS TO LEAN AWAY FROM THE GFS/GEFS MEAN. AS A RESULT EXPECT THE MID LVL LOW CROSSING THE NORTHEAST TO STAYSOMEWHAT FARTHER SWD THAN THE GFS/GEFS MEAN. THE STRONG RIDGE BUILDING OVER GREENLAND SHOULD ALSO LEAD TO A MORE SUPPRESSED SOLN.

MEANWHILE GUIDANCE STILL EXPECTS FLOW AROUND THE NERN PAC MEAN TROF TO PROGRESS INTO THE WRN CONUS DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE PERIOD... SUPPORTING A LEADING COLD FRONT. THE 00Z ECMWF COULD BECOME A LITTLE FAST WITH THE EWD PROGRESSION OF SHRTWV ENERGY BY DAY 7 THU BUT CANNOT BE FULLY EXCLUDED GIVEN THE EXPECTED TREND TOWARD FLATTER MEAN FLOW. THE GFS BECOMES SLOWER/MORE AMPLIFIED THAN CONSENSUS WITH ITS TROF BY NEXT THU.PREFERENCES WITH THE ERN CONUS SYSTEM AND THE TIMING OF EVOLUTION TOWARD FLATTER MEAN FLOW LEAD TO A FCST BLEND CONSISTING OF THE00Z/12Z ECMWF RUNS AND 12Z ECMWF MEAN WITH MORE EMPHASIS ON THE OPERATIONAL RUNS EARLY IN THE PERIOD AND THE ECMWF MEAN LATER IN THE PERIOD.

RAUSCH

Last Updated: 400 AM EST THU DEC 09 2010

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BullCityWx

BullCityWx

Posted
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Posted

Euro basically looks to give AVL and points west some light snow and maybe squeeze a flurries out for CLT and points west on Monday. To be honest it's nothing to write home about as even AVL doesn't get into the game until the bulk of the moisture is gone.

I dont know dude, this run is actually pretty good for us and would imply a light accumulating snow, almost a tenth falls after we changeover. Probably the best snow run we've had with this event.

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weatherheels

weatherheels

Posted
Posted

Euro is also pretty good for BNA...roughly .22 depending on how quick the changeover is.

Hey QC, do you have the qpf for around gso from the euro? Thanks in advance.

6z gfs also gives half of the piedmont pretty decent qpf while the 850's are below 0... just surface temps are about 10 degrees to warm. Still seems like a classic case of cold chasing moisture.

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BullCityWx

BullCityWx

Posted
  • Author
Posted

Hey QC, do you have the qpf for around gso from the euro? Thanks in advance.

6z gfs also gives half of the piedmont pretty decent qpf while the 850's are below 0... just surface temps are about 10 degrees to warm. Still seems like a classic case of cold chasing moisture.

It looks pretty similair for most of the piedmont...around a tenth.

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BIG FROSTY

BIG FROSTY

Posted
Posted

I thought we suppose to be turning colder in the afternoon ? So any snow should be afternoon or evening ? Not in the morning ? And why not Saturday night when temp is coldest ?

SATURDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S. LIGHT AND

VARIABLE WINDS.

.SATURDAY NIGHT...CLOUDY. RAIN LIKELY...MAINLY AFTER MIDNIGHT.

LOWS IN THE MID 30S. CHANCE OF RAIN 70 PERCENT.

.SUNDAY...RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS LIKELY IN THE MORNING...THEN RAIN

SHOWERS LIKELY IN THE AFTERNOON. HIGHS IN THE MID 40S. CHANCE OF

PRECIPITATION 70 PERCENT.

.SUNDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY IN THE EVENING...THEN BECOMING

PARTLY CLOUDY. A CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS IN THE EVENING. COOLER

WITH LOWS IN THE MID 20S. CHANCE OF RAIN 50 PERCENT

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BIG FROSTY

BIG FROSTY

Posted
Posted

What is the next threat to start watching for those of us in the midlands of SC?

Here's a little bit from JB ----

next week and a new storm will travel further south and have a much more favorable surface map or a big snow event further south and east than this one.

but this pattern continues to evolve about as nice as you could ask for in a La Nina driven situation for the push abnormally far south of the snowcover line in the run up to the holidays. So maybe late next week ? :thumbsup:

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FLO

FLO

Posted
Posted

Here's a little bit from JB ----

next week and a new storm will travel further south and have a much more favorable surface map or a big snow event further south and east than this one.

but this pattern continues to evolve about as nice as you could ask for in a La Nina driven situation for the push abnormally far south of the snowcover line in the run up to the holidays. So maybe late next week ? :thumbsup:

Yeah I saw a chart for the 18th or something. That is way out though.

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FoothillsNC

FoothillsNC

Posted
Posted

the flow is going to be so extremely fast Sunday, the piedmont could see some flakes, I think the best shot would be the further north sections near the VA border, instead of around CLT. I wouldn't be surprised though on Monday to get some snowshowers making it east of the Apps in a few spots, probably won't happen though.

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tazaroo

tazaroo

Posted
Posted

The 6z GFS ensemble members do leave a glimmer of hope for some of us east of the apps for some snow flurries with maybe a coating if 2m temps cool down enough. Some of the actually look pretty good. n002 anyone? But I know better than to by into the cold catching up to the moisture thing even if briefly, this far off and relying on GFS with limited EURO support also.

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FoothillsNC

FoothillsNC

Posted
Posted

Funny how a few days ago this upcoming cold was going to bust what we had and currently have, but it looks warmer with every run. am I wrong? :axe:

It does look slightly warmer, esp. the further south and west you go. The vortex isn't going to set up where the Euro had it, also its in and out in a flash now. Much faster with the warm advection beginning Wednesday, on all models. The Pacific begins pushing eastward pretty quickly and the cold vortex gets shunted up under the east to west building ridge, which is going to be pretty far north. The overall neg. NAO ridging is so far up this allows the cold air to get in here and out of here much quicker than this current cold wave it appears. All models now have warm air aloft cruising in here late next week with some rain or drizzle. There's not much of a high to provide cold damming late week.

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DCMetroWinston

DCMetroWinston

Posted
Posted

the flow is going to be so extremely fast Sunday, the piedmont could see some flakes, I think the best shot would be the further north sections near the VA border, instead of around CLT. I wouldn't be surprised though on Monday to get some snowshowers making it east of the Apps in a few spots, probably won't happen though.

Perhaps the Triad will see a coating to a half inch of snow.

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