burgertime Posted December 9, 2010 Share Posted December 9, 2010 We need eyewalls map of cold chasing moisture cause that's what the NAM is painting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SBUWX23 Posted December 9, 2010 Share Posted December 9, 2010 At 72, still positively tilted it looks, but also looking to start the phase, two low pressures - one 1008 just west of Tennessee in Arkansas, the other 1008 in northeast Missouri. Its heading to the Ohio Valley... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted December 9, 2010 Share Posted December 9, 2010 0z NAM doesn't look good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxbrad Posted December 9, 2010 Share Posted December 9, 2010 I'm actually growing more concerned for a severe weather outbreak in the warm sector over the southeast right now. Much more that than any cosmetic flurries we see east of the mountains Monday morning. The shear is nuts late Sunday with the front. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted December 9, 2010 Share Posted December 9, 2010 Its heading to the Ohio Valley... Well at 72, it was like duh............of course it is, but at 66 it didn't look like it (to me). Of course this is why I am an amature weather fanatic, and not a met......... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SBUWX23 Posted December 9, 2010 Share Posted December 9, 2010 Not good for the SE or the east coast for that matter when the 850 mb low is this far north.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Marion_NC_WX Posted December 9, 2010 Share Posted December 9, 2010 The 18z data was very impressive in showing the front passage around 12z Sunday with temps in stead decline from that point until it bottoms out at 10 degrees Tuesday 12z. So in other words, Monday will fall from the mid teens when I wake up Monday morning to near single digits 24 hours later. http://wxweb.meteostar.com/sample/sample.shtml?text=KMRN Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted December 9, 2010 Share Posted December 9, 2010 Well per the NAM the good news is that atleast Sunday won't be a complete washout and it will be warm. We can hang our hats on that atleast.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tazaroo Posted December 9, 2010 Share Posted December 9, 2010 True, this run looks bad at the end but actually looked good up till 60. Who knows if the NAM if right in dropping the polar vortex in and pulling the shortwave North. It looked like up till that point it was headed East like the GFS or even south of its 18z solution. Of course it is risky to put too much in the NAM past 80 whether it show something good or bad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Czar Posted December 9, 2010 Share Posted December 9, 2010 Its risky to put too much in the nam at anytime. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted December 9, 2010 Share Posted December 9, 2010 We need eyewalls map of cold chasing moisture cause that's what the NAM is painting. this one? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAD_Wedge_NC Posted December 9, 2010 Share Posted December 9, 2010 Well per the NAM the good news is that atleast Sunday won't be a complete washout and it will be warm. We can hang our hats on that atleast.... The NAM is showing somewhat of a CAD signature at 12z Sunday just when the precip arrives. The 1320m 850-1000 thickness line is in western NC. I wouldn't call this warm. at least not at the surface. Looks like some insitu damming trying to develop. I am sure with that track, it will get scoured out before the front arrives. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SBUWX23 Posted December 9, 2010 Share Posted December 9, 2010 True, this run looks bad at the end but actually looked good up till 60. Who knows if the NAM if right in dropping the polar vortex in and pulling the shortwave North. It looked like up till that point it was headed East like the GFS or even south of its 18z solution. Of course it is risky to put too much in the NAM past 80 whether it show something good or bad. The issue is that the Euro is in the same line. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted December 9, 2010 Share Posted December 9, 2010 The issue is that the Euro is in the same line. I hate to admit it, but when a model lines up with the Euro this close to "game time".................you have to listen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
POWERSTROKE Posted December 9, 2010 Share Posted December 9, 2010 euro almost always right not all the time but mostly Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted December 9, 2010 Share Posted December 9, 2010 All hail the Euro...................................or so it appears. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted December 9, 2010 Share Posted December 9, 2010 GFS... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherNC Posted December 9, 2010 Share Posted December 9, 2010 0z GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rduwx Posted December 9, 2010 Share Posted December 9, 2010 euro almost always right not all the time but mostly Usually if the euro shows and apps runner or inland track you can take it to the bank and other models will soon follow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherfide Posted December 9, 2010 Share Posted December 9, 2010 Atlanta: "No snow for you!". Euro wins! Also, cold air is not nearly as bad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rduwx Posted December 9, 2010 Share Posted December 9, 2010 0z GFS Couldn't of said it better myself WeatherNC! Looks like the gfs finally caught on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cheeznado Posted December 9, 2010 Share Posted December 9, 2010 The GFS sucks all around- much less cold than the previous run and warmer than the Euro. We all laughed at the NWS and local mets but they not be so far off after all- high on the GFS mid 30s Monday, so 40s Tuesday may be possible here.. I really hope the Euro comes in colder than this..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAD_Wedge_NC Posted December 9, 2010 Share Posted December 9, 2010 Atlanta: "No snow for you!". Euro wins! Also, cold air is not nearly as bad. Wouldn't surprise me if the EURO showed a more east solution tonight. Although, I seriously doubt that it will. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted December 9, 2010 Author Share Posted December 9, 2010 The GFS sucks all around- much less cold than the previous run and warmer than the Euro. We all laughed at the NWS and local mets but they not be so far off after all- high on the GFS mid 30s Monday, so 40s Tuesday may be possible here.. I really hope the Euro comes in colder than this..... Still looks plenty cold here Date: 5 day AVN valid 0Z TUE 14 DEC 10 Station: 35.31,-81.23 Latitude: 35.31 Longitude: -81.23 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- LEV PRES HGHT TEMP DEWP RH DD WETB DIR SPD THETA THE-V THE-W THE-E W mb m C C % C C deg knt K K K K g/kg ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 0 1000 147 SFC 986 254 -6.1 -14.9 50 8.8 -8.2 295 6 268.1 268.3 265.7 271.5 1.22 2 950 548 -7.4 -15.7 52 8.3 -9.4 305 16 269.6 269.8 266.7 273.0 1.18 3 900 966 -11.5 -16.2 68 4.7 -12.5 308 22 269.7 269.9 266.7 273.1 1.20 4 850 1401 -15.3 -18.1 80 2.7 -15.9 314 34 270.1 270.3 266.8 273.2 1.08 5 800 1857 -16.5 -25.1 47 8.6 -17.9 321 47 273.5 273.6 268.2 275.3 0.62 6 750 2343 -15.2 -36.9 14 21.6 -17.9 322 50 280.0 280.1 271.6 280.7 0.22 7 700 2863 -16.4 -41.6 9 25.1 -19.2 319 52 284.3 284.3 273.9 284.8 0.14 8 650 3417 -19.2 -40.8 13 21.6 -21.5 315 55 287.2 287.3 275.5 287.8 0.17 9 600 4008 -22.8 -40.3 19 17.5 -24.6 312 57 289.7 289.7 276.8 290.4 0.19 10 550 4640 -26.9 -42.6 21 15.8 -28.2 310 60 292.2 292.3 278.0 292.8 0.16 11 500 5321 -31.0 -47.1 19 16.1 -32.0 308 63 295.3 295.3 279.4 295.7 0.11 12 450 6063 -34.0 -51.9 15 18.0 -34.9 307 71 300.5 300.6 281.7 300.8 0.07 13 400 6883 -36.7 -56.2 11 19.5 -37.5 308 85 307.3 307.4 284.4 307.5 0.05 14 350 7801 -40.0 -59.2 11 19.2 -40.8 310 101 314.8 314.8 287.1 314.9 0.04 15 300 8844 -44.2 -61.4 13 17.2 -44.7 312 111 323.0 323.0 289.7 323.1 0.03 16 250 10050 -49.8 -64.4 16 14.6 -50.1 310 109 332.1 332.1 292.3 332.2 0.03 17 200 11493 -54.1 -67.6 18 13.5 -54.4 305 105 347.1 347.1 296.0 347.2 0.02 18 150 13322 -57.7 -70.6 18 12.9 -57.9 299 95 370.7 370.7 300.7 370.8 0.02 19 100 15895 -52.8 -81.8 2 29.0 -53.5 295 77 425.7 425.7 308.4 425.8 0.00 TRP 0 WND 0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherNC Posted December 9, 2010 Share Posted December 9, 2010 0z UKMET has the slp reflection in IL at 72hrs, so that about wraps things up folks... Hopefully a modified cold shot on the backside, as even though I am one for extremes, my gas bill this month is going to be one for the ages since the wife has the thermostat set on a nice toasty 78 currently, and that will likely continue till March or April barring a torch! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted December 9, 2010 Author Share Posted December 9, 2010 Although I do see what cheeznado is alluding to...850's are half as cold at KATL at 0z Tuesday as they were at 12z. One thing to note though, it seems like the 12z runs have consistently been colder than the 0z runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SBUWX23 Posted December 9, 2010 Share Posted December 9, 2010 Well could it be because the GFS isnt wrapping the system up as much in time to advect the colder air down like the Euro does? I mean the GFS looks like a mess with the surface reflection with little QPF so gotta wonder if thats why the cold doesnt come down as far... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cheeznado Posted December 9, 2010 Share Posted December 9, 2010 Well could it be because the GFS isnt wrapping the system up as much in time to advect the colder air down like the Euro does? I mean the GFS looks like a mess with the surface reflection with little QPF so gotta wonder if thats why the cold doesnt come down as far... The culprit if this warmer trend verifies is the &%$@#%&% La Nina- the strong Pacific jet knocks the EPAC/western NOAM ridge down too quickly- the really good cold outbreaks have much more ridge amplification than what is progged with this set-up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SBUWX23 Posted December 9, 2010 Share Posted December 9, 2010 The culprit if this warmer trend verifies is the &%$@#%&% La Nina- the strong Pacific jet knocks the EPAC/western NOAM ridge down too quickly- the really good cold outbreaks have much more ridge amplification than what is progged with this set-up. Good point about the ridge, the GFS breaks it down faster than the Euro. The GFS has a day or so cold shot for you in Georgia. It keeps it around a bit longer for NC before warm advection takes over at 850 mb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheVille Posted December 9, 2010 Share Posted December 9, 2010 Good point about the ridge, the GFS breaks it down faster than the Euro. The GFS has a day or so cold shot for you in Georgia. It keeps it around a bit longer for NC before warm advection takes over at 850 mb. This system makes me :'( Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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