Itunis Posted December 8, 2010 Share Posted December 8, 2010 That is a mean solution based on the avg of the individual members, so take it with a grain or two of salt. Also, the precip is for the 6hr period leading up to the timestamp on the panel, and the 850 line is placement at that timestamp. So what you see can be deceiving in that regard. In order to have any sig chance of winter weather impacts, you would want to be at-least 100-200 miles NW of that LP center. Granted, the operational 850 track looks like ass, and would imply nothing as NC, and even VA are all south of the 850 low, but that could change if a solution like this were to verify... Yeah that would be almost all rain up to that point in most of GA, looking at the previous frame. The frame after that shows generally <.1" QPF over our area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NC_WX10 Posted December 8, 2010 Share Posted December 8, 2010 i know you all dont like IMBY questions but im trying to learn how to read the models and its coming along, but i would just like to know how its looking for the northern part of the triad right now for the storm this weekend? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scooter Posted December 8, 2010 Share Posted December 8, 2010 So, who are some of the mets you like to watch in your area? I'm just an observer more than anything on here because of all the info I get. I like to watch Matthew East on News 14, for obvious reasons and Van Denton on Fox 8. I like him because he likes to explain models and what is happening. He's why I started getting more involved in the models and how/why they work. This site has helped me exponentially, so thanks! Back to reading now...... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rduwx Posted December 8, 2010 Share Posted December 8, 2010 A little perspective from a TV Met here. First off, in having this conversation, remember that we as TV Mets are catering to people who are only casually watching. They watch us while doing their hair in the morning and feeding the kids in the evening. The majority are not avid weather board readers, weenies, or weather enthusiasts, but rather folks who want to know if they need the jacket or umbrella tomorrow, and how the weekend looks. Are most of us conservative? You bet!!! We simply can't say it's going to snow in 7 days unless we are DARN sure it's gonna happen. I think most of us see the trends in the models with certain events like this upcoming cold blast, however it's much easier on the viewers to hedge our way into it. It's not an excuse, nor is it an easy way out, just a delicate dance that involves relaying a complicated science to the average viewer. Not a slap against viewers or fellow mets, but hopefully a little insight into the process. On an actual weather related note, I have 30s in my 7 Day for Mon and Tue here in coastal SC. Thanks for the explanation Jaydog! Makes a lot of sense. We would love to get your input on future events this winter so don't be a stranger. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherNC Posted December 8, 2010 Share Posted December 8, 2010 A little perspective from a TV Met here. First off, in having this conversation, remember that we as TV Mets are catering to people who are only casually watching. They watch us while doing their hair in the morning and feeding the kids in the evening. The majority are not avid weather board readers, weenies, or weather enthusiasts, but rather folks who want to know if they need the jacket or umbrella tomorrow, and how the weekend looks. Are most of us conservative? You bet!!! We simply can't say it's going to snow in 7 days unless we are DARN sure it's gonna happen. I think most of us see the trends in the models with certain events like this upcoming cold blast, however it's much easier on the viewers to hedge our way into it. It's not an excuse, nor is it an easy way out, just a delicate dance that involves relaying a complicated science to the average viewer. Not a slap against viewers or fellow mets, but hopefully a little insight into the process. On an actual weather related note, I have 30s in my 7 Day for Mon and Tue here in coastal SC. I totally agree, and that is why sometimes there can be a discourse here between what the local stations, and even WFO's are saying, in relation to what we are seeing, as most of us are not the average viewer. We have seen events on the horizon, before words are mentioned elsewhere, however a lot of times they fizzle and we have the fortune of just brushing it off as another near miss. We have the luxury of analyzing every minuet trend and or detail that is of no consequence to the avg audience and that is great thing as they would not understand, nor really care because it does not immediately impact them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jaydog Posted December 8, 2010 Share Posted December 8, 2010 Perfectly stated! Some of the best Mets I know (right there in NC) are the most coservative on the air for these very reasons. Yes, there are some "flakes" in this business, but all of this is something to keep in mind while casting stones at your local TV Met...although most of us are used to it... I totally agree, and that is why sometimes there can be a discourse here between what the local stations, and even WFO's are saying, in relation to what we are seeing, as most of us are not the average viewer. We have seen events on the horizon, before words are mentioned elsewhere, however a lot of times they fizzle and we have the fortune of just brushing it off as another near miss. We have the luxury of analyzing every minuet trend and or detail that is of no consequence to the avg audience and that is great thing as they would not understand, nor really care because it does not immediately impact them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SBUWX23 Posted December 9, 2010 Share Posted December 9, 2010 Perfectly stated! Some of the best Mets I know (right there in NC) are the most coservative on the air for these very reasons. Yes, there are some "flakes" in this business, but all of this is something to keep in mind while casting stones at your local TV Met...although most of us are used to it... Agreed and if its anything like it is up in the NYC metro, most people only want to know the temperatures when and where, and if it will rain or snow. Thats it. Forecasting something 5-7 days out is not in the mind of the general public unless your planning something those days then maybe you take an interest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted December 9, 2010 Share Posted December 9, 2010 I bet this is true for most folks NYC or not. However, in a small town (like the one I live in) it always goes like this.... How are you doing today? What do you think about this weather? I work with the public and those questions get asked and talked about a lot. Me, when the met on TV puts up the 7 day forecast. Im looking at 5-7 Agreed and if its anything like it is up in the NYC metro, most people only want to know the temperatures when and where, and if it will rain or snow. Thats it. Forecasting something 5-7 days out is not in the mind of the general public unless your planning something those days then maybe you take an interest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DCMetroWinston Posted December 9, 2010 Share Posted December 9, 2010 IS Greg Fishel still considered one of the best tv mets on the East Coast? Back in the day he was. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RevDodd Posted December 9, 2010 Share Posted December 9, 2010 A little slower/lower would be a nice surprise. Still time for this type of trend i believe to continue although not likely. Somebody on here besides the upslopers is going to get some snow out of this! Give us two more days of movement like the last two and a LOT of folks would be pleasantly surprised! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SuperNET Posted December 9, 2010 Share Posted December 9, 2010 A little perspective from a TV Met here. First off, in having this conversation, remember that we as TV Mets are catering to people who are only casually watching. They watch us while doing their hair in the morning and feeding the kids in the evening. The majority are not avid weather board readers, weenies, or weather enthusiasts, but rather folks who want to know if they need the jacket or umbrella tomorrow, and how the weekend looks. Are most of us conservative? You bet!!! We simply can't say it's going to snow in 7 days unless we are DARN sure it's gonna happen. I think most of us see the trends in the models with certain events like this upcoming cold blast, however it's much easier on the viewers to hedge our way into it. It's not an excuse, nor is it an easy way out, just a delicate dance that involves relaying a complicated science to the average viewer. Not a slap against viewers or fellow mets, but hopefully a little insight into the process. On an actual weather related note, I have 30s in my 7 Day for Mon and Tue here in coastal SC. Nice post....Welcome aboard. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RevDodd Posted December 9, 2010 Share Posted December 9, 2010 IS Greg Fishel still considered one of the best tv mets on the East Coast? Back in the day he was. Greg is still very well-respected. He also has a good knack of explaining situations so folks can grasp what's happening (or going to happen). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
oconeexman Posted December 9, 2010 Share Posted December 9, 2010 Give us two more days of movement like the last two and a LOT of folks would be pleasantly surprised! Preach it REV! A ton of uncertainty right now, wild pattern, anything could happen. By fri/sat we should have more consensus with the models and get to use the NAM cause it'll be in it's range of 48hrs where it usually performs well. Been a long time since we had any backside snow showers, if it's gonna happen i'd say this is the crazy pattern to get it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted December 9, 2010 Share Posted December 9, 2010 Good grief. I get home from work thinking there will be some agreement w/ the various models. Nope. UKMET - south. 18z GFS - Whaaa? Euro - Dr. No. Canadian - similar to Euro. I read the thread back to this AM. Any sense of where this low pressure is going? My gut says, "Ohio," but that's not science. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherNC Posted December 9, 2010 Share Posted December 9, 2010 Good grief. I get home from work thinking there will be some agreement w/ the various models. Nope. UKMET - south. 18z GFS - Whaaa? Euro - Dr. No. Canadian - similar to Euro. I read the thread back to this AM. Any sense of where this low pressure is going? My gut says, "Ohio," but that's not science. 18z GFS members @ 96 & 102 hrs would argue for a "gut" check... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rosie Posted December 9, 2010 Share Posted December 9, 2010 A little perspective from a TV Met here. First off, in having this conversation, remember that we as TV Mets are catering to people who are only casually watching. They watch us while doing their hair in the morning and feeding the kids in the evening. The majority are not avid weather board readers, weenies, or weather enthusiasts, but rather folks who want to know if they need the jacket or umbrella tomorrow, and how the weekend looks. Are most of us conservative? You bet!!! We simply can't say it's going to snow in 7 days unless we are DARN sure it's gonna happen. I think most of us see the trends in the models with certain events like this upcoming cold blast, however it's much easier on the viewers to hedge our way into it. It's not an excuse, nor is it an easy way out, just a delicate dance that involves relaying a complicated science to the average viewer. Not a slap against viewers or fellow mets, but hopefully a little insight into the process. On an actual weather related note, I have 30s in my 7 Day for Mon and Tue here in coastal SC. Well said and thanks! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAD_Wedge_NC Posted December 9, 2010 Share Posted December 9, 2010 18z GFS members @ 96 & 102 hrs would argue for a "gut" check... n005 would be good for western areas........... actually, N001, N004, and N005 aren't bad as a whole. I am really curious as to which model will fold their hand first. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted December 9, 2010 Share Posted December 9, 2010 I concur with your assessment n005 would be good for western areas........... actually, N001, N004, and N005 aren't bad as a whole. I am really curious as to which model will fold their hand first. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted December 9, 2010 Author Share Posted December 9, 2010 The euro is king...don't stray from it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SBUWX23 Posted December 9, 2010 Share Posted December 9, 2010 The euro is king...don't stray from it. Overall its been the most consistent. I know the disturbance in questions is not over our data network but we are in the ECMs good range and its data assimilation techniques are superior to the GFS. The GFS is very inconsistent. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Czar Posted December 9, 2010 Share Posted December 9, 2010 The euro and cmc failed at the beginning of last month when they both over phased and took the low thru central NC. The gfs said not so fast, and it was right. Maybe it can score another victory here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted December 9, 2010 Share Posted December 9, 2010 The euro is king...don't stray from it. While I don't doubt the Euro leads the way most of the time, I am inclined to give credence to all other guidance that's gone east today. The Euro didn't initialize well today (from what I hear). The GFS has been really consistent too with it's easterly track. Question is, is it playing to its own bias of being too progressive........Will be interested in seeing 0z, for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted December 9, 2010 Share Posted December 9, 2010 18z GFS members @ 96 & 102 hrs would argue for a "gut" check... Thanks for posting those. GFS / UKMET vs Euro / Canadian. I hate betting against the Euro - been burned too many times. However, I don't think the Euro was very good at forecasting in this area last winter. It also doesn't seem to model systems as well when there is a lot of cold on the table so to speak. Is it a warm bias on its part - don' know the answer to that. So, what does sensible weather say at this point? Would either camp's scenario work, or is there one that is improbable based on the "trajectory" of the low pressure? FWIW, the JMA is even north at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HWY316wx Posted December 9, 2010 Share Posted December 9, 2010 Let the model waffling begin.... its on ... its off... maybe... maybe not... Let us not forget the event is still "out there" so lets not totally fold our hand on this one. With the strong dynamics of the cold coming out of Canada, maybe the wrap around will at least give us a show if it won't give measurable snow. I still think this sucker goes the way of the Ohio Valley. Given how the GFS is starting to back down on the QPF and I noticed on some of the grids it is painting the low way up in Ohio / West Virginia. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxbrad Posted December 9, 2010 Share Posted December 9, 2010 Let the model waffling begin.... its on ... its off... maybe... maybe not... Let us not forget the event is still "out there" so lets not totally fold our hand on this one. With the strong dynamics of the cold coming out of Canada, maybe the wrap around will at least give us a show if it won't give measurable snow. I still think this sucker goes the way of the Ohio Valley. Given how the GFS is starting to back down on the QPF and I noticed on some of the grids it is painting the low way up in Ohio / West Virginia. Bingo, this has Ohio Valley written all over it. Unless the 700mb low and VV tracks over the Carolinas I'm not buying snow yet east of mountains. Hard to get snow east of the mountains will downsloping winds drying things out so the back side stuff is clutter in the models right now. The mountains will get absolutely hammered in the NWFS this could top last weekend by a few inches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rduwx Posted December 9, 2010 Share Posted December 9, 2010 The euro is king...don't stray from it. I agree, every year I start off saying I'm going to ride the euro train until it proves me wrong and every year the euro ends up being the most consistent. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted December 9, 2010 Share Posted December 9, 2010 0z NAM certainly doesn't look like it's going up to the OH valley at 66. low is down in north TX, trough still positively tilted heading toward the mississippi.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted December 9, 2010 Share Posted December 9, 2010 0z NAM certainly doesn't look like it's going up to the OH valley at 66. low is down in north TX, trough still positively tilted heading toward the mississippi.. NAM looks like it won't even be cold enough in Tn....and it looks like it's more north then the last run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SBUWX23 Posted December 9, 2010 Share Posted December 9, 2010 0z NAM certainly doesn't look like it's going up to the OH valley at 66. low is down in north TX, trough still positively tilted heading toward the mississippi.. The low is a more broad than the center you are seeing. You can actually see the inverted troughing all the way to the northern great plains, towards chicago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted December 9, 2010 Share Posted December 9, 2010 At 72, still positively tilted it looks, but also looking to start the phase, two low pressures - one 1008 just west of Tennessee in Arkansas, the other 1008 in northeast Missouri. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.