Potential December 12th-13th threat

[Lookout]

101212/0300Z  87  18007KT  38.8F           0:1| 0.0|| 0.0    0.000|| 0.00     0.00|| 0.00    0.00|| 0.00     0|  0|  0
101212/0600Z  90  18008KT  41.4F           0:1| 0.0|| 0.0    0.000|| 0.00     0.00|| 0.00    0.00|| 0.00     0|  0|  0
101212/0900Z  93  17011KT  44.2F  RAIN     0:1| 0.0|| 0.0    0.087|| 0.09     0.00|| 0.00    0.00|| 0.00     0|  0|100
101212/1200Z  96  21011KT  47.7F  RAIN     0:1| 0.0|| 0.0    0.406|| 0.49     0.00|| 0.00    0.00|| 0.00     0|  0|100
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
 Date/hour    FHr  Wind    SfcT   Ptype  SRat|Snow||TotSN    QPF ||TotQPF   Sleet||TotPL    FZRA||TotZR    S%| I%| L%
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
101212/1500Z  99  23010KT  49.1F    DZ     0:1| 0.0|| 0.0    0.106|| 0.60     0.00|| 0.00    0.00|| 0.00     0|  0|100
101212/1800Z 102  26010KT  49.5F    DZ     0:1| 0.0|| 0.0    0.012|| 0.61     0.00|| 0.00    0.00|| 0.00     0|  0|100
101212/2100Z 105  30011KT  45.9F  RAIN     0:1| 0.0|| 0.0    0.083|| 0.69     0.00|| 0.00    0.00|| 0.00     0|  0|100
101213/0000Z 108  30012KT  37.8F  RAIN     0:1| 0.0|| 0.0    0.012|| 0.70     0.00|| 0.00    0.00|| 0.00     0|  0|100
----------------------------------------------+----++-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+---
101213/0300Z 111  31015KT  34.3F  SNOW     0:1| 0.0|| 0.0    0.008|| 0.71     0.00|| 0.00    0.00|| 0.00    80|  0| 20
101213/0600Z 114  31015KT  29.1F           0:1| 0.0|| 0.0    0.000|| 0.71     0.00|| 0.00    0.00|| 0.00     0|  0|  0
101213/0900Z 117  31017KT  23.0F           0:1| 0.0|| 0.0    0.000|| 0.71     0.00|| 0.00    0.00|| 0.00     0|  0|  0
101213/1200Z 120  31014KT  19.8F           0:1| 0.0|| 0.0    0.000|| 0.00     0.00|| 0.00    0.00|| 0.00     0|  0|  0
----------------------------------------------+----++-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+---
101213/1500Z 123  32017KT  21.2F           0:1| 0.0|| 0.0    0.000|| 0.00     0.00|| 0.00    0.00|| 0.00     0|  0|  0
101213/1800Z 126  32020KT  23.9F           0:1| 0.0|| 0.0    0.000|| 0.00     0.00|| 0.00    0.00|| 0.00     0|  0|  0
101213/2100Z 129  32021KT  22.6F           0:1| 0.0|| 0.0    0.000|| 0.00     0.00|| 0.00    0.00|| 0.00     0|  0|  0
101214/0000Z 132  29011KT  21.2F           0:1| 0.0|| 0.0    0.000|| 0.00     0.00|| 0.00    0.00|| 0.00     0|  0|  0
----------------------------------------------+----++-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+---
101214/0300Z 135  29011KT  19.8F           0:1| 0.0|| 0.0    0.000|| 0.00     0.00|| 0.00    0.00|| 0.00     0|  0|  0
101214/0600Z 138  26008KT  17.8F           0:1| 0.0|| 0.0    0.000|| 0.00     0.00|| 0.00    0.00|| 0.00     0|  0|  0
101214/0900Z 141  26009KT  17.2F           0:1| 0.0|| 0.0    0.000|| 0.00     0.00|| 0.00    0.00|| 0.00     0|  0|  0
101214/1200Z 144  27007KT  16.3F           0:1| 0.0|| 0.0    0.000|| 0.00     0.00|| 0.00    0.00|| 0.00     0|  0|  0
----------------------------------------------+----++-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+---
101214/1500Z 147  29007KT  22.3F           0:1| 0.0|| 0.0    0.000|| 0.00     0.00|| 0.00    0.00|| 0.00     0|  0|  0
101214/1800Z 150  31007KT  30.0F           0:1| 0.0|| 0.0    0.000|| 0.00     0.00|| 0.00    0.00|| 0.00     0|  0|  0
101214/2100Z 153  32006KT  30.2F           0:1| 0.0|| 0.0    0.000|| 0.00     0.00|| 0.00    0.00|| 0.00     0|  0|  0
101215/0000Z 156  02005KT  22.8F           0:1| 0.0|| 0.0    0.000|| 0.00     0.00|| 0.00    0.00|| 0.00     0|  0|  0
----------------------------------------------+----++-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+---
101215/0300Z 159  05005KT  20.7F           0:1| 0.0|| 0.0    0.000|| 0.00     0.00|| 0.00    0.00|| 0.00     0|  0|  0
101215/0600Z 162  08003KT  22.5F           0:1| 0.0|| 0.0    0.000|| 0.00     0.00|| 0.00    0.00|| 0.00     0|  0|  0
101215/0900Z 165  VRB01KT  23.0F           0:1| 0.0|| 0.0    0.000|| 0.00     0.00|| 0.00    0.00|| 0.00     0|  0|  0
101215/1200Z 168  VRB00KT  23.7F           0:1| 0.0|| 0.0    0.000|| 0.00     0.00|| 0.00    0.00|| 0.00     0|  0|  0
----------------------------------------------+----++-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+---
101215/1500Z 171  VRB02KT  26.4F           0:1| 0.0|| 0.0    0.000|| 0.00     0.00|| 0.00    0.00|| 0.00     0|  0|  0
101215/1800Z 174  23003KT  32.2F           0:1| 0.0|| 0.0    0.000|| 0.00     0.00|| 0.00    0.00|| 0.00     0|  0|  0
101215/2100Z 177  22004KT  33.3F           0:1| 0.0|| 0.0    0.000|| 0.00     0.00|| 0.00    0.00|| 0.00     0|  0|  0
101216/0000Z 180  23005KT  25.3F           0:1| 0.0|| 0.0    0.000|| 0.00     0.00|| 0.00    0.00|| 0.00     0|  0|  0
======================================================================================================================

Pretty dadgum impressive

I wonder if the high winds the models are forecasting will actually materialize? Because it will be brutal to have 20 to 30mph winds in the low 20s during the day. The models have over estimated the wind a few times in recent weeks here so it will be interesting to see if there really is that windy on monday. I actually hope so just because of the rarity of having that cold of temp during the day with such low windchills.

[burgertime]

When it's painfully obvious, I don't understand it either. For example if there is very good model agreement on highs in the 20s a few days out, it doesn't make much sense to go 5 to 8 degrees warmer. And it takes all of about one minute to glance at all the model guidance and see they are showing temps in the 20s or 850mb temps of -15c. To me the excuse that they don't put much thought into the medium range doesn't make a lot of sense to me...because it doesn't take much thought to see it. And if it warms/changes, so what? You simply go along.

It just reeks of laziness, carelessness, and an attitude that they don't care. To me it's not a good message. I understand not having a lot of time to focus on the medium range but that's no real excuse to ignore the obvious imho.

I was just talking to Robert about this, I don't have any special insight but I think that most execs in the news feel it's safer to bust on temps 4 or 5 days away then it is to bust on them 2 days away. I will bet you anything that on Saturday or Sunday they will be blasting it from the mountain tops about how cold it's going to be. The vast majority of their viewership is not going to care, just the fact they are getting a day early is good enough for them. However if they were getting beat over the head with how cold it was days in advance and then it ended up not being that cold you can bet they would be talking about it around the water cooler that next morning. To me it makes sense if that is the reason. The bottom line in TV is keeping your viewers.

Now as for severe events such as snow? Not really sure.

[burgertime]

Look at 21z, that would equate out to a wind chill of 6º....at FOUR O'CLOCK in the afternoon.

That would be some of the coldest I've ever been in around here. Didn't it get that cold after the big snowfall in 2000? IIRC the high temps were somewhere in the low 20's with a descent gust.

[BullCityWx]

That would be some of the coldest I've ever been in around here. Didn't it get that cold after the big snowfall in 2000? IIRC the high temps were somewhere in the low 20's with a descent gust.

It would be the coldest, I think, since 1/23/03.

[burgertime]

It would be the coldest, I think, since 1/23/03.

Maybe that's what I was thinking of and not 2000.

[Marion_NC_WX]

It would be the coldest, I think, since 1/23/03.

I remember that event very well...we dropped down to 5 degrees that next morning with nearly calm winds and snow cover.

[WeatherNC]

Found this snippet from the HPC's afternoon model diagnostic disco somewhat interesting...

...WAVE SHARPENING ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST LATE DAY 3...

PREFERENCE: COMPROMISE BETWEEN ECMWF AND UKMET

THE NAM AND GEM GLOBAL ARE SUPPRESSED COMPARED WITH THE OTHER

RECENT GUIDANCE...WITH THE UKMET THE MOST DEVELOPED WITH THIS

SYSTEM BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. THIS FEATURE IS CRITICAL TO

WHERE THE BAROCLINIC ZONE ENDS UP AHEAD OF THE MIDWEST SYSTEM.

WITH THE SPREAD IN SOLUTIONS...WILL RECOMMEND A COMPROMISE BETWEEN

THE EXTREMES...THE ECMWF AND UKMET.

The NAM puts down a general 1-2" for the Coastal Plain of NC on Saturday and the UKMET has also been bullish on this feature. Something to watch going forward as the location of the baroclinic zone along the EC, as well phasing energy from the PV in central Canada will have major influences on the eventual slp track... UKMET, as well as a couple other models, do not show nearly as much interaction with the energy in central Canada, as do the ECMWF and CMC. They also transfer the low east along this thermal gradient

[FoothillsNC]

It would be the coldest, I think, since 1/23/03.

thats what I was thinking for this cold air, but probably a little warmer. So far no model is going for -20 at 850 around here, but still. Without the big preceding snow. One thing about that 516dm core in Virginia, I vividly remember the winds here blowing the snow for a day or more. It was one wild windy day.

[IWC]

Burgertime, I always could not understand the reasoning of their safe forcasts,So I'm thinking you have a very good explanation for their reasoning. As for your snow I've seen SE board telling us snow in the AM and not a peep from the mets that it might even flurrie.

I was just talking to Robert about this, I don't have any special insight but I think that most execs in the news feel it's safer to bust on temps 4 or 5 days away then it is to bust on them 2 days away. I will bet you anything that on Saturday or Sunday they will be blasting it from the mountain tops about how cold it's going to be. The vast majority of their viewership is not going to care, just the fact they are getting a day early is good enough for them. However if they were getting beat over the head with how cold it was days in advance and then it ended up not being that cold you can bet they would be talking about it around the water cooler that next morning. To me it makes sense if that is the reason. The bottom line in TV is keeping your viewers.

Now as for severe events such as snow? Not really sure.

[burgertime]

18z GFS is going to look really good to people in AVL.

Haha and of course a few frames later all the cold air goes *POOF*...still though it looked like something frozen on the front end for them.

[Itunis]

When it's painfully obvious, I don't understand it either. For example if there is very good model agreement on highs in the 20s a few days out, it doesn't make much sense to go 5 to 8 degrees warmer. And it takes all of about one minute to glance at all the model guidance and see they are showing temps in the 20s or 850mb temps of -15c. To me the excuse that they don't put much thought into the medium range doesn't make a lot of sense to me...because it doesn't take much thought to see it. And if it warms/changes, so what? You simply go along.

It just reeks of laziness, carelessness, and an attitude that they don't care. To me it's not a good message. I understand not having a lot of time to focus on the medium range but that's no real excuse to ignore the obvious imho.

At the same time you can't really expect forecasters to follow the models verbatim in extremely anomalous situations like these, and to a certain extent they should certainly be cautious about forecasting near record low temps. I do agree though that FFC is being a good bit too conservative, especially in regard to highs on Tuesday.

[burgertime]

Burgertime, I always could not understand the reasoning of their safe forcasts,So I'm thinking you have a very good explanation for their reasoning. As for your snow I've seen SE board telling us snow in the AM and not a peep from the mets that it might even flurrie.

Yep, now I just watch the weather on TV during snow events for the hilarity of it.

[WeatherNC]

18z GFS is going to look really good to people in AVL.

Haha and of course a few frames later all the cold air goes *POOF*...still though it looked like something frozen on the front end for them.

This run is a huge shift, and I can never remember the GFS and EC being this far apart within 96 hrs. The trough does not go neutral until FL, and at that time the northern stream energy is just about to phase in, which it never really does in time on this run, but it is close. Whereas, the 12z EC had this energy coming in over the Plains and strengthening the trough, and as a result, cutting the storm up the MS Valley. This looks like a big EC storm this run minus what appears to be a lack of QPF, which is probably not right given the strength... So much for a trend west with this run, and no where near a Lakes Cutter

A couple exerts from a few AFD's I have read today out west

WFO KDVN

OVERVIEW...MODEL INITIALIZATION AND VERIFICATION GOOD EXCEPT FOR HI-

RES ECMWF WHICH SUFFERS FROM LATENT HEAT RELEASE FEEDBACK ISSUES FOR

SATURDAY. ALL OTHER SOLUTIONS TRENDING FURTHER SOUTH WITH DEEP UPPER

TROUGH THIS WEEKEND TO LIMIT WEEKEND SNOW AMOUNTS. WELL BELOW TO

BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES INTO NEXT WEDNESDAY WITH SNOW COVERED AREAS

BELOW ZERO AT TIMES. USED A 60/40 BLEND OF 80KM NAM-WRF FORCING AND

GFS INTO SATURDAY. SATURDAY ON...USED A BLEND OF GFS/UKMET AND GEM-

NH.

WFO KSGF

THAT UPPER LEVEL WAVE WILL CONTINUE TO DIG AS WE GET INTO THE

SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT PERIOD. MODELS CONTINUE TO OFFER A

VARIETY OF SOLUTIONS. THE NAM WAS IGNORED AS IT WILL LIKELY

CONTINUE TO PLAY CATCH UP WITH THE GLOBAL MODELS THE NEXT FEW

RUNS. THE 12Z ECMWF WAS ALSO IGNORED FOR TWO REASONS. GIVEN THAT

THE LONG WAVE TROUGH AXIS RESIDES OVER THE EASTERN UNITED

STATES...IT IS TOO QUICK TO CLOSE OFF THE UPPER LEVEL LOW. IN

ADDITION...THE ECMWF SEEMS TO BE TOO QUICK TO STOP DIGGING THE LOW

GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF THE UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK ON THE WESTERN

FLANK OF THE DIGGING ENERGY. THE 12Z UKMET AND GFS APPEAR MUCH

MORE BELIEVABLE KEEPING THE WAVE PRETTY MUCH OPEN AND QUICKLY

PROGRESSING SOUTHEAST. THIS ENERGY WILL FINALLY BEGIN TO TAKE THE

TURN EAST AS IT ENCOUNTERS THAT LONG WAVE TROUGH AXIS BY SUNDAY.

WFO KBUF

IT APPEARS VERY LIKELY THAT A STRONG SURFACE LOW WILL

DEVELOP AS A DEEP AND INCREASINGLY NEGATIVE TILTED UPPER TROF ENTERS

APPROACHES THE EAST COAST. THE PART THE MODELS ARE STRUGGLING WITH

IS IF/WHEN/WHERE A COASTAL LOW WILL DEVELOP. STILL FEEL THAT FROM A

CLIMATOLOGICAL STANDPOINT...A COASTAL DEVELOPMENT IS FAVORED GIVEN

THE FAVORABLE BAROCLINIC ZONE ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD. WHILE NOT

TOO MUCH IS READ IN THE SPECIFICS...THE OPERATIONAL GFS APPEARS MUCH

MORE PLAUSIBLE THAN THE EUROPEAN/GGEM...AND IS MUCH MORE IN LINE

WITH OUR GOING FORECAST.

WFO KSLX

STILL A LOT OF MODEL UNCERTAINTY WITH THE

POSITION AND TRACK OF THE MAIN VORT MAX AND SFC LOW. FOR NOW

FOLLOWED THE GFS MODEL AS IT HAS BEEN THE MOST CONSISTENT. THIS

MODEL DOES NOT CLOSE OFF A 500 MB LOW BUT DOES DEEPEN A SFC/850 MB

LOW SE OF THE AREA. IT APPEARS THAT THE BETTER SNOW ACCUMULATION

MAY OCCUR FROM STL NEWD TOWARDS SPI SAT NGT AS THE STORM SYSTEM

INTENSIFIES AS IT MOVES E OF THE AREA. STRONG AND GUSTY NWLY SFC

WINDS BEHIND THE CDFNT WILL BRING MUCH COLDER AIR TO THE REGION

FOR SAT NGT AND SUN. THE SNOW SHOULD TAPER OFF TO FLURRIES SUN

MRNG...ALTHOUGH IF THE SLOWER...CLOSED OFF SOLUTION OF THE ECMWF

MODEL WERE TO VERIFY THE SNOW WOULD BE SLOWER TO END ACROSS IL.

Got to love them shoving all in on the Global while ignoring the most respected weather model on the planet!!!

[Lookout]

At the same time you can't really expect forecasters to follow the models verbatim in extremely anomalous situations like these, and to a certain extent they should certainly be cautious about forecasting near record low temps. I do agree though that FFC is being a good bit too conservative, especially in regard to highs on Tuesday.

If there is unanimous agreement among the models, I think you should expect them within a reasonable time period. (i'm talking about temps only, not winter storms btw) Highly anomalous or not, If there is good model agreement across the board, the odds strongly favor toward their solution. It's really that simple, so why go against the odds? If there are model disagreements, that's completely different and it's understandable if they side on the warmer side.

If there is total model agreement on the pattern/temp profile, it makes no logical sense to favor a warmer solution. Not only do the odds favor that being wrong, exactly what is the purpose of forecasting 36 instead of 30? Or 40 over 33? Why are forecasters more willing to bust on the warm side than the cold side? I've never understood it.

[burgertime]

This run is a huge shift, and I can never remember the GFS and EC being this far apart within 96 hrs. The trough does not go neutral until FL, and at that time the northern stream energy is just about to phase in, which it never really does in time on this run, but it is close. Whereas, the 12z EC had this energy coming in over the Plains and strengthening the trough, and as a result, cutting the storm up the MS Valley. This looks like a big EC storm this run minus what appears to be a lack of QPF, which is probably not right given the strength... So much for a trend west with this run, and no where near a Lakes Cutter

Of course the system 8 days away on the 18z GFS looks legit

[FLO]

In the defense of mets on tv, I have been reading this since last winter and I still dont understand. Can you imagine them explaining this stuff to a regular viewer who has never even looked at a site like this? I do think it is funny though. Thanks to this board, I was able to tell people we were going to get blasted by 7-8 inches of snow in Aiken last Feb. before the local guys were even calling for a few inches. Plus, down here, people hear flurries and the milk and bread is gone.

[Lookout]

I was just talking to Robert about this, I don't have any special insight but I think that most execs in the news feel it's safer to bust on temps 4 or 5 days away then it is to bust on them 2 days away. I will bet you anything that on Saturday or Sunday they will be blasting it from the mountain tops about how cold it's going to be. The vast majority of their viewership is not going to care, just the fact they are getting a day early is good enough for them. However if they were getting beat over the head with how cold it was days in advance and then it ended up not being that cold you can bet they would be talking about it around the water cooler that next morning. To me it makes sense if that is the reason. The bottom line in TV is keeping your viewers.

Now as for severe events such as snow? Not really sure.

The thing is, from a personal pride standpoint, I would not want to bust on temps 4 or 5 days away, regardless of whether or not the viewership cares. I would want to be as accurate as possible and I would think most others would too. But it's clear some don't.

As for medium range forecasts, I do think a fair amount of people pay attention to the forecasts at days 4 and 5 more than some might think.

But on this idea busting on temps...I have never understood why it's worse if a forecast busts for being too cold than for being too warm. If you forecast 36 and then there is an icestorm that catches everyone off guard, how in the hell is that better than forecasting 30 and freezing rain and it ends up being 34 and rain and no harm to anyone? Forecasting a rain event and it ends up being an icestorm/snowstorm is worse than forecasting one and it ends up being rain on a multitude of levels and from the aspect of how people's lives are effected. Yet for some bizarre reason, people will b**ch more if the winter storm doesn't happen.

[NEGa]

But on this idea busting on temps...I have never understood why it's worse if a forecast busts for being too cold than for being too warm. If you forecast 36 and then there is an icestorm that catches everyone off guard, how in the hell is that better than forecasting 30 and freezing rain and it ends up being 34 and rain and no harm to anyone? Forecasting a rain event and it ends up being an icestorm/snowstorm is worse than forecasting one and it ends up being rain on a multitude of levels and from the aspect of how people's lives are effected. Yet for some bizarre reason, people will b**ch more if the winter storm doesn't happen.

Dec 05 comes to mind. A day out people there were screaming major ice storm for the area but the news forecast was rain and 40s. Turned into the worst ice storm here in 60 years from what people said and the warnings didn't go out until the event was starting and the warnings kept expanding sw

Jan 04 was another one. Nws has 60s on Sunday as late as that Thursday, people on the boards were talking ice storm and we got one, although the official forecasted didn't pick it up again until the last minute

As for the complaints when storm doesn't hit, well that kills our snow day

[WhiteoutWX]

WeatherNC, its interesting all of those WFOs (mostly midwest/NE) are going with the GFS, while the southern ones are going more with the Euro.

Here is part of the afternoon GSP discussion

...THE MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE APPEARS TO BE

COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE EVOLUTION OF A BLOCKBUSTER LOW

PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT WILL TAKE SHAPE OVER THE PLAINS/MS VALLEY LATE

SATURDAY AND EARLY SUNDAY TO THE NORTHEAST ON MONDAY. WE HAVE BEEN

EXPECTING AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE TO AFFECT THE WESTERN CAROLINAS

STARTING SATURDAY NIGHT BUT THERE REMAINS UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE

TRACK OF THE LOW. THE LATEST GUIDANCE GOES MORE ALONG THE LINES OF

THE ECMWF IN KEEPING THE SURFACE LOW OVER THE OH VALLEY...

Not really sure what guidance they are referring to here, as they left that out...

Defiantely alot of disagreement both on the models as well as the various forecasting offices.

18z GFS defiantely looks screwey though. Doesnt look like it knows where ot focus development.

For sure alot more to change with this storm. My gut tells me that the Euro will be right, based on lack of blocking by the time the storm is taking shape, however the reluctance of the GFS and Ukie to budge is interesting.

[FoothillsNC]

If there is unanimous agreement among the models, I think you should expect them within a reasonable time period. Highly anomalous or not, If there is good model agreement across the board, the odds strongly favor toward their solution. It's really that simple, so why go against the odds? If there are model disagreements, that's completely different and it's understandable if they side on the warmer side.

If there is total model agreement on the pattern/temp profile, it makes no logical sense to favor a warmer solution. Not only do the odds favor that being wrong, exactly what is the purpose of forecasting 36 instead of 30? Or 40 over 33? Why are forecasters more willing to bust on the warm side than the cold side? I've never understood it.

this happens here every Winter. There's a few forecasters which I think are really good, but most fall into the bolded part above. The upstate SC stations are really known for it. I've never seen them bust low, its usually around 10 degrees or more especially at days 5 and beyond, and is proportional to the severity of the cold event. Its not just the CAD events, which notoriously take down almost every forecaster except a few, but even in non precip events, like the upcoming (and just past) wave.

[Blue_Ridge_Escarpment]

For next week from NWS:

Monday: Mostly sunny and breezy, with a high near 32.

Monday Night: Partly cloudy, with a low around 7.

Tuesday: Sunny, with a high near 36.

Tuesday Night: Mostly clear, with a low around 10.

Monday night--Brrrrrrr!

[weatherheels]

So far it looks like the local mets are going with mid 30's for the highs here next week. TWC seems to be more in line with what the models are showing forecasting a high of 26 Monday, and 28 Tuesday. The local mets are gonna bust on the high side 9/10 times during winter when talking 5-7 day forecasts, it seems.

[WeatherNC]

18z GFS ens mean, parts of TN would likely get crushed with a track similar to this, as would SW VA and NW NC... From what I am hearing, there is a sig amount of spread in the members, and likely some porn on a few once they come out on Allan's site... Just hoping this one is chase-able for 12" plus somewhere within about 5 hours, as I am starting to get that itch!

[HKY18]

18z GFS ens mean, parts of TN would likely get crushed with a track similar to this, as would SW VA and NW NC... From what I am hearing, there is a sig amount of spread in the members, and likely some porn on a few once they come out on Allan's site... Just hoping this one is chase-able for 12" plus somewhere within about 5 hours, as I am starting to get that itch!

yeah with that kinda of track it would be close here in the northern foothills.

[DaculaWeather]

That looks like it would be pretty good for us too.

[CAD_Wedge_NC]

The thing that gets me the most......(and I talk about it each year) is the weird day to night temperature ranges the local media puts in their extended forecasts for winter weather events. I have seen forecasts of snow at night changing to rain during the day and back to snow that night due to the time of day......and it never happens that way. Yet each winter the same thing will be in the forecast several times. As far as CAO's, you will never see the media jumping on a extreme event this far out. They will always go middle of the road right up until they are forced to stray from climo.

[Jaydog]

A little perspective from a TV Met here. First off, in having this conversation, remember that we as TV Mets are catering to people who are only casually watching. They watch us while doing their hair in the morning and feeding the kids in the evening. The majority are not avid weather board readers, weenies, or weather enthusiasts, but rather folks who want to know if they need the jacket or umbrella tomorrow, and how the weekend looks. Are most of us conservative? You bet!!! We simply can't say it's going to snow in 7 days unless we are DARN sure it's gonna happen. I think most of us see the trends in the models with certain events like this upcoming cold blast, however it's much easier on the viewers to hedge our way into it. It's not an excuse, nor is it an easy way out, just a delicate dance that involves relaying a complicated science to the average viewer.

Not a slap against viewers or fellow mets, but hopefully a little insight into the process.

On an actual weather related note, I have 30s in my 7 Day for Mon and Tue here in coastal SC.

[WeatherNC]

That looks like it would be pretty good for us too.

That is a mean solution based on the avg of the individual members, so take it with a grain or two of salt. Also, the precip is for the 6hr period leading up to the timestamp on the panel, and the 850 line is placement at that timestamp. So what you see can be deceiving in that regard. In order to have any sig chance of winter weather impacts, you would want to be at-least 100-200 miles NW of that LP center. Granted, the operational 850 track looks like ass, and would imply nothing as NC, and even VA are all south of the 850 low, but that could change if a solution like this were to verify...

[oconeexman]

A little slower/lower would be a nice surprise. Still time for this type of trend i believe to continue although not likely. Somebody on here besides the upslopers is going to get some snow out of this!

[tnweathernut]

12z ukie FTW.........................while I don't think we can discount the mighty Euro, it certainly appears most guidance has gone away from this solution to the great lakes (except the GGEM). I think the 0z runs tonight will be really fun to watch unfold. I am starting to think someone in Kentucky might get raked with this one.