Potential December 12th-13th threat

[SBUWX23]

There's litle to no doubt its going to get super cold....when does anyone in the media/NWS plan on forecasting it??? This is the serious kind of cold people have to plan for.

WRAL in Raleigh is forecasting a high of 30 on Tuesday. I would not be shocked if they lower temps after the runs today which continually hint at much colder air.

[Jon]

I don't follow the logic on their forecast for the Monday through Wednesday cold wave. Is this the new discussion? This current cold wave had 2 successive days of highs near freezing in the southern piedmont and 2 mornings of record lows, and some record low "max" temps as well. Not sure about the Raleigh area, but with this next cold outbreak forecasted on both models to be vastly colder than this one at all levels of the atmosphere, makes me wonder why they are going with warmer temperatures than what we just currently had? All guidance is pointing to Mon/Tues as being extremely cold statewide . I'd be surprised to see Raleigh get above 25 either Monday or Tuesday. (certainly no more than freezing) The nighttime lows will be a function of wind and dependent on radiation.

Yes I only quoted the new disco from 1:30pm of the AFD...I don't follow it either...we know temps will be well below what they're calling for. Mike Maze (for those of you who don't know, he's a MET with WRAL) has stated that highs should be in the 20's for Tues via Twitter. He said this in reply to me yesterday, "the GFS 1000-850 thickness would make me think we could see highs in the 20s next Tuesday!"

[Gastonwxman]

the 12z Euro is even further south with its closed lobe, so the anamolies are literally off the charts in the Southeast and Midatlantic. Tuesday the entire state of NC will likely be in the 20's for highs, except possibly ILM area, and of course the mountains with AVL not cracking 20. I'm going for AVL)17 HKY )20 GSO)19 RDU)21 CLT)24 on max temps. Nighttime lows aren't shown to be that extreme, or even colder than this outbreak because of the winds most likely. The wind chills are going to be pretty severe with such a tight gradient and vortex to our north, and with the surface high holding so far back, its a continuous drainage of cold air and wind Monday and Tuesday into Wednesday.

The zero at 850 clears all of Florida except Key West. Also, some sound effect snow in NC is possible.

Unbelievable cold for sure is in store by the way this sounds. If we end up experiencing temperatures not getting out of the low-mid 20s, this will make those low-mid 30s back in January look warm.

[FoothillsNC]

There's litle to no doubt its going to get super cold....when does anyone in the media/NWS plan on forecasting it??? This is the serious kind of cold people have to plan for.

it was hard explaining this a few days ago to some folks here, who had heard my forecast as of Thursday last week, and were making plans this week in Charlotte. Unfortunately the got a forecast of mid 40s from somewhere and banked on that . Ended up with a burst radiator yesterday morning down there. I feel confident enough at this point to alert some folks of the need to winterize, wrap your pipes , etc, during the upcoming thaw on Fri/Saturday. We'll probably have the lowest "max" temps since 1996 or 2000 come next Monday and Tuesday around here.

[BullCityWx]

WRAL in Raleigh is forecasting a high of 30 on Tuesday. I would not be shocked if they lower temps after the runs today which continually hint at much colder air.

The most realistic fxcast I've seen in the Charlotte market is 14's high of 33 on mon/tues. WBTV still has the high on Monday as being 38 but the only way that'll be reached is if it's a midnight temp.

[HWY316wx]

FFC pointing to the bitter cold in their disco from about 30 minutes ago...

BEHIND THE

FRONT...THE COLD AIR SURGES DOWN...POSSIBLY COULD SEE FALLING TEMPS

SUNDAY AFTERNOON WHICH WILL ALSO SWITCH THE RAIN OVER TO LIGHT SNOW

OVER PARTS OF WEST AND NORTHWEST GA. MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT LOOK

LIKE THEY WILL BE THE COLDEST OF THE SEASON...WINDS ON MONDAY COULD

PROVIDE FOR SOME PRETTY COLD WIND CHILL VALUES

[Marion_NC_WX]

The most realistic fxcast I've seen in the Charlotte market is 14's high of 33 on mon/tues. WBTV still has the high on Monday as being 38 but the only way that'll be reached is if it's a midnight temp.

WLOS (Asheville) and in particular the Chief Met was very bullish on this current cold air setup once he got within 5 days. I would look for Jason to begin advertising next week's weather potential starting tonight. It does seem like they also put some stock into the latest GFS runs as well.

[Brian]

The i phone weather site has Atlanta on Monday for a high of 23, low 10...........I think yahoo does this forecasting, but usually it is pretty accurate,

[burgertime]

Come Friday they will start talking about it. Remember the audience for TV. They probably don't care unless it's 2 days away.

[DCMetroWinston]

Some early Monday snow for Winston-Salem?

http://www.meteor.iastate.edu/~ckarsten/bufkit/data/cobb_gfs/gfs3_kint.dat

[Itunis]

The i phone weather site has Atlanta on Monday for a high of 23, low 10...........I think yahoo does this forecasting, but usually it is pretty accurate,

A little extreme IMO, upper 20s would be a good bet for our area. The GFS is a bit warmer (but still fookin cold), but the Euro/Canadian both have 850s of -16C or lower for a period for Atlanta.

[GreensboroWx]

I never understand the TV station's and NWS reluctance to forecast what is pretty obvious. I'm not doubting RAH's forecasting ability but "conservative" is their middle name and always has been.

It's obvious this upcoming cold pattern is vastly colder than the current one. I've been shouting on the mountaintop to everyone who will listen about next week's cold AND WIND. The general public needs to take precautions now. Freezing daytime highs should easily reach the coastal plain of NC if not SC next Monday/Tuesday.

We do have some pretty good mets here in the Triad but all in all I never watch the TV weathercasts anymore. Honestly, I don't need to, but I used to watch to see how they compared to my thinking. Now, I simply don't have the desire.

Believe me, the best forecasts you will find are right here on these boards!

[packfan98]

I never understand the TV station's and NWS reluctance to forecast what is pretty obvious. I'm not doubting RAH's forecasting ability but "conservative" is their middle name and always has been.

It's obvious this upcoming cold pattern is vastly colder than the current one. I've been shouting on the mountaintop to everyone who will listen about next week's cold AND WIND. The general public needs to take precautions now. Freezing daytime highs should easily reach the coastal plain of NC if not SC next Monday/Tuesday.

We do have some pretty good mets here in the Triad but all in all I never watch the TV weathercasts anymore. Honestly, I don't need to, but I used to watch to see how they compared to my thinking. Now, I simply don't have the desire.

Believe me, the best forecasts you will find are right here on these boards!

I have to say that Van Denton on Fox8 and Austin Caviness on WXII12 are not afraid to talk about potential events that are over a week away. Van talks about patterns and even shows different models from time to time (GFS, NAM, EURO). He is a snow lover and a bit of a weenie like myself.

[dwagner88]

Hey GA posters, any of that precip hitting the ground? There's some pretty strong radar returns showing up from Auburn towards ATL. I'm assuming if anything falls it will be cold enough for snow. Probably virga, but maybe somebody will get a surprise.

[GreensboroWx]

Yeah, those were the two I was thinking of when I said "good mets." There are a couple of others who are simply mouthpieces of the NWS and totally useless. They shall remain nameless.

I have to say that Van Denton on Fox8 and Austin Caviness on WXII12 are not afraid to talk about potential events that are over a week away. Van talks about patterns and even shows different models from time to time (GFS, NAM, EURO). He is a snow lover and a bit of a weenie like myself.

[Cheeznado]

Regarding the NWS and their extended forecasting- it is pretty obvious that most offices put very little time and effort into the forecasts beyond 3-4 days- in most cases the will just blindly go with the GFS MOS.

Regarding this cold blast the models for north GA have backed off on the extreme cold, the 2M and 850 temps have risen on the GFS, and Euro (supported by the CMC) a few degrees from their extremes yesterday- no longer does either model have ATL near 510 thickness and -18 at 850. Now the GFS suggests a high in the mid- upper 20s here Monday and low 30s Tuesday with a low maybe not below 15 when yesterday it looked like 10 was a possibility. Still looks like flurries late Sunday-Monday morning.

[buckeyefan1]

I never understand the TV station's and NWS reluctance to forecast what is pretty obvious. I'm not doubting RAH's forecasting ability but "conservative" is their middle name and always has been.

It's obvious this upcoming cold pattern is vastly colder than the current one. I've been shouting on the mountaintop to everyone who will listen about next week's cold AND WIND. The general public needs to take precautions now. Freezing daytime highs should easily reach the coastal plain of NC if not SC next Monday/Tuesday.

We do have some pretty good mets here in the Triad but all in all I never watch the TV weathercasts anymore. Honestly, I don't need to, but I used to watch to see how they compared to my thinking. Now, I simply don't have the desire.

Believe me, the best forecasts you will find are right here on these boards!

Agree Glad to see you received your red tag

[Brian]

Regarding the NWS and their extended forecasting- it is pretty obvious that most offices put very little time and effort into the forecasts beyond 3-4 days- in most cases the will just blindly go with the GFS MOS.

Regarding this cold blast the models for north GA have backed off on the extreme cold, the 2M and 850 temps have risen on the GFS, and Euro (supported by the CMC) a few degrees from their extremes yesterday- no longer does either model have ATL near 510 thickness and -18 at 850. Now the GFS suggests a high in the mid- upper 20s here Monday and low 30s Tuesday with a low maybe not below 15 when yesterday it looked like 10 was a possibility. Still looks like flurries late Sunday-Monday morning.

FFC has mid 30s and a pronounced warming trend on Tuesday...oh well.

[audioguy3107]

Hey GA posters, any of that precip hitting the ground? There's some pretty strong radar returns showing up from Auburn towards ATL. I'm assuming if anything falls it will be cold enough for snow. Probably virga, but maybe somebody will get a surprise.

Doubt it.........LaGrange's dewpoint is around 12........ultra dry.....anything that is falling is prob. virga like you said, but you never know, may see a flake or two.

[wxbrad]

I'm buying the cold temps for sure you'd be blind not see the pattern and learn from this past arctic outbreak. The models never handle arctic air very well at all. Speaking of models love them and they are a great tool but you must always remember one thing. Weather numerical modeling is called guidance for a reason, it's not a forecast. Let them guide your forecast not make it for you.

Words of wisdom as an experienced forecaster. :-)

[FoothillsNC]

Regarding the NWS and their extended forecasting- it is pretty obvious that most offices put very little time and effort into the forecasts beyond 3-4 days- in most cases the will just blindly go with the GFS MOS.

Regarding this cold blast the models for north GA have backed off on the extreme cold, the 2M and 850 temps have risen on the GFS, and Euro (supported by the CMC) a few degrees from their extremes yesterday- no longer does either model have ATL near 510 thickness and -18 at 850. Now the GFS suggests a high in the mid- upper 20s here Monday and low 30s Tuesday with a low maybe not below 15 when yesterday it looked like 10 was a possibility. Still looks like flurries late Sunday-Monday morning.

I think the Euro has waffled 100 to 200 miles with the core of the lowest heights, so that plays with things a little as you get away from the core, which is to still be expected at this range. All in all, I'm a littel surprised at its overall maintaining. My thought for this event is that the closer to the southwest side of the 510 or 516 height fields, the colder and windier things are. No matter which model, NC is nestled right in that location so I'm very confident that the cold here will materialize maybe even lower than the 2M temps shown on Euro since that model didn't handle this current wave as well as the GFS. Ironic that GFS is a smidge warmer, but for GA, I think considering all the factors, this will be colder for the whole state than the current outbreak. Unless both models are way off on that height core (which actually drops to near DC). The winds are going to be very high across GA, the Carolinas for 2 full days, so that may help with nighttime lows not going as low as we could, but maxes will still be 20's, even some teens in extreme NE Ga I think Tuesday . There will still be some waffles, but -16 or -14 is pretty cold anywhere around the Southeast and we dont get that every year.

[suzannah]

Hey GA posters, any of that precip hitting the ground? There's some pretty strong radar returns showing up from Auburn towards ATL. I'm assuming if anything falls it will be cold enough for snow. Probably virga, but maybe somebody will get a surprise.

Nope- looks good on radar, but that's about it. Dry and cold. Just drove in from Carrollton to Rome. Cloudy, but that's it for now.

[Lookout]

Hey GA posters, any of that precip hitting the ground? There's some pretty strong radar returns showing up from Auburn towards ATL. I'm assuming if anything falls it will be cold enough for snow. Probably virga, but maybe somebody will get a surprise.

See the southeast thread. There are a few in the core of the heaviest returns. By far most is not hitting the ground. Only those located under the heaviest returns for a little while will see a few and it's mainly going to be between atlanta and macon.

Nope- looks good on radar, but that's about it. Dry and cold. Just drove in from Carrollton to Rome. Cloudy, but that's it for now.

Classic virga storm for most for sure. But albany of all places reported snow earlier today.

That said, let's keep this thread focused on the upcoming system and not this one. To discuss anything about today, go to the southeast thread.

[BullCityWx]

101212/0300Z  87  18007KT  38.8F           0:1| 0.0|| 0.0    0.000|| 0.00     0.00|| 0.00    0.00|| 0.00     0|  0|  0
101212/0600Z  90  18008KT  41.4F           0:1| 0.0|| 0.0    0.000|| 0.00     0.00|| 0.00    0.00|| 0.00     0|  0|  0
101212/0900Z  93  17011KT  44.2F  RAIN     0:1| 0.0|| 0.0    0.087|| 0.09     0.00|| 0.00    0.00|| 0.00     0|  0|100
101212/1200Z  96  21011KT  47.7F  RAIN     0:1| 0.0|| 0.0    0.406|| 0.49     0.00|| 0.00    0.00|| 0.00     0|  0|100
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
 Date/hour    FHr  Wind    SfcT   Ptype  SRat|Snow||TotSN    QPF ||TotQPF   Sleet||TotPL    FZRA||TotZR    S%| I%| L%
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
101212/1500Z  99  23010KT  49.1F    DZ     0:1| 0.0|| 0.0    0.106|| 0.60     0.00|| 0.00    0.00|| 0.00     0|  0|100
101212/1800Z 102  26010KT  49.5F    DZ     0:1| 0.0|| 0.0    0.012|| 0.61     0.00|| 0.00    0.00|| 0.00     0|  0|100
101212/2100Z 105  30011KT  45.9F  RAIN     0:1| 0.0|| 0.0    0.083|| 0.69     0.00|| 0.00    0.00|| 0.00     0|  0|100
101213/0000Z 108  30012KT  37.8F  RAIN     0:1| 0.0|| 0.0    0.012|| 0.70     0.00|| 0.00    0.00|| 0.00     0|  0|100
----------------------------------------------+----++-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+---
101213/0300Z 111  31015KT  34.3F  SNOW     0:1| 0.0|| 0.0    0.008|| 0.71     0.00|| 0.00    0.00|| 0.00    80|  0| 20
101213/0600Z 114  31015KT  29.1F           0:1| 0.0|| 0.0    0.000|| 0.71     0.00|| 0.00    0.00|| 0.00     0|  0|  0
101213/0900Z 117  31017KT  23.0F           0:1| 0.0|| 0.0    0.000|| 0.71     0.00|| 0.00    0.00|| 0.00     0|  0|  0
101213/1200Z 120  31014KT  19.8F           0:1| 0.0|| 0.0    0.000|| 0.00     0.00|| 0.00    0.00|| 0.00     0|  0|  0
----------------------------------------------+----++-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+---
101213/1500Z 123  32017KT  21.2F           0:1| 0.0|| 0.0    0.000|| 0.00     0.00|| 0.00    0.00|| 0.00     0|  0|  0
101213/1800Z 126  32020KT  23.9F           0:1| 0.0|| 0.0    0.000|| 0.00     0.00|| 0.00    0.00|| 0.00     0|  0|  0
101213/2100Z 129  32021KT  22.6F           0:1| 0.0|| 0.0    0.000|| 0.00     0.00|| 0.00    0.00|| 0.00     0|  0|  0
101214/0000Z 132  29011KT  21.2F           0:1| 0.0|| 0.0    0.000|| 0.00     0.00|| 0.00    0.00|| 0.00     0|  0|  0
----------------------------------------------+----++-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+---
101214/0300Z 135  29011KT  19.8F           0:1| 0.0|| 0.0    0.000|| 0.00     0.00|| 0.00    0.00|| 0.00     0|  0|  0
101214/0600Z 138  26008KT  17.8F           0:1| 0.0|| 0.0    0.000|| 0.00     0.00|| 0.00    0.00|| 0.00     0|  0|  0
101214/0900Z 141  26009KT  17.2F           0:1| 0.0|| 0.0    0.000|| 0.00     0.00|| 0.00    0.00|| 0.00     0|  0|  0
101214/1200Z 144  27007KT  16.3F           0:1| 0.0|| 0.0    0.000|| 0.00     0.00|| 0.00    0.00|| 0.00     0|  0|  0
----------------------------------------------+----++-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+---
101214/1500Z 147  29007KT  22.3F           0:1| 0.0|| 0.0    0.000|| 0.00     0.00|| 0.00    0.00|| 0.00     0|  0|  0
101214/1800Z 150  31007KT  30.0F           0:1| 0.0|| 0.0    0.000|| 0.00     0.00|| 0.00    0.00|| 0.00     0|  0|  0
101214/2100Z 153  32006KT  30.2F           0:1| 0.0|| 0.0    0.000|| 0.00     0.00|| 0.00    0.00|| 0.00     0|  0|  0
101215/0000Z 156  02005KT  22.8F           0:1| 0.0|| 0.0    0.000|| 0.00     0.00|| 0.00    0.00|| 0.00     0|  0|  0
----------------------------------------------+----++-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+---
101215/0300Z 159  05005KT  20.7F           0:1| 0.0|| 0.0    0.000|| 0.00     0.00|| 0.00    0.00|| 0.00     0|  0|  0
101215/0600Z 162  08003KT  22.5F           0:1| 0.0|| 0.0    0.000|| 0.00     0.00|| 0.00    0.00|| 0.00     0|  0|  0
101215/0900Z 165  VRB01KT  23.0F           0:1| 0.0|| 0.0    0.000|| 0.00     0.00|| 0.00    0.00|| 0.00     0|  0|  0
101215/1200Z 168  VRB00KT  23.7F           0:1| 0.0|| 0.0    0.000|| 0.00     0.00|| 0.00    0.00|| 0.00     0|  0|  0
----------------------------------------------+----++-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+---
101215/1500Z 171  VRB02KT  26.4F           0:1| 0.0|| 0.0    0.000|| 0.00     0.00|| 0.00    0.00|| 0.00     0|  0|  0
101215/1800Z 174  23003KT  32.2F           0:1| 0.0|| 0.0    0.000|| 0.00     0.00|| 0.00    0.00|| 0.00     0|  0|  0
101215/2100Z 177  22004KT  33.3F           0:1| 0.0|| 0.0    0.000|| 0.00     0.00|| 0.00    0.00|| 0.00     0|  0|  0
101216/0000Z 180  23005KT  25.3F           0:1| 0.0|| 0.0    0.000|| 0.00     0.00|| 0.00    0.00|| 0.00     0|  0|  0
======================================================================================================================

Pretty dadgum impressive

[burgertime]

Know it's trusting the NAM at 84 but it's slower with our system on Sunday then the 12z GFS and it looks a little bit south...not making much of a difference though.

[burgertime]

Pretty dadgum impressive

19 degrees at 12z

[Cheeznado]

FFC has mid 30s and a pronounced warming trend on Tuesday...oh well.

Sunday Night: A slight chance of snow. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 25. Chance of precipitation is 20%.

Monday: Mostly sunny and windy, with a high near 34.

Monday Night: Mostly clear, with a low around 19.

Tuesday: Sunny, with a high near 43.

KPDK GFSX MOS GUIDANCE 12/08/2010 1200 UTC

FHR 24 36| 48 60| 72 84| 96 108|120 132|144 156|168 180|192

THU 09| FRI 10| SAT 11| SUN 12| MON 13| TUE 14| WED 15|THU CLIMO

N/X 21 46| 23 51| 30 58| 43 46| 26 36| 19 43| 29 47| 34 33 55

TMP 22 37| 25 42| 33 51| 46 38| 27 28| 21 35| 32 40| 36

DPT 9 13| 14 23| 24 37| 37 28| 17 7| 10 13| 20 28| 29

WND 4 5| 1 4| 1 7| 13 21| 18 18| 12 8| 7 8| 7

P12 2 1| 2 7| 9 28| 69 46| 13 2| 1 0| 0 30| 19999999

P24 2| 7| 33| 76| 18| 1| 30| 999

Q12 0 0| 0 0| 0 0| 3 1| 0 0| 0 0| |

Q24 0| 0| 0| 4| 0| 0| |

T12 0 1| 1 1| 1 2| 9 4| 3 2| 1 2| 2 3| 3

T24 | 1 | 1 | 12 | 5 | 6 | 3 | 4

PZP 3 3| 7 6| 4 3| 2 3| 4 5| 6 7| 14 16| 5

PSN 92 66| 37 6| 25 0| 0 14| 53 68| 54 49| 36 4| 17

PRS 0 0| 0 0| 0 2| 1 23| 14 2| 2 5| 5 12| 1

TYP S S| R R| R R| R R| S S| S S| S Z| R

SNW 0| 0| 0| 0| 0| 0| |

I rest my case- why even have a human forecaster?

[BullCityWx]

19 degrees at 12z

Look at 21z, that would equate out to a wind chill of 6º....at FOUR O'CLOCK in the afternoon.

[Lookout]

I never understand the TV station's and NWS reluctance to forecast what is pretty obvious. I'm not doubting RAH's forecasting ability but "conservative" is their middle name and always has been.

It's obvious this upcoming cold pattern is vastly colder than the current one. I've been shouting on the mountaintop to everyone who will listen about next week's cold AND WIND. The general public needs to take precautions now. Freezing daytime highs should easily reach the coastal plain of NC if not SC next Monday/Tuesday.

We do have some pretty good mets here in the Triad but all in all I never watch the TV weathercasts anymore. Honestly, I don't need to, but I used to watch to see how they compared to my thinking. Now, I simply don't have the desire.

Believe me, the best forecasts you will find are right here on these boards!

When it's painfully obvious, I don't understand it either. For example if there is very good model agreement on highs in the 20s a few days out, it doesn't make much sense to go 5 to 8 degrees warmer. And it takes all of about one minute to glance at all the model guidance and see they are showing temps in the 20s or 850mb temps of -15c. To me the excuse that they don't put much thought into the medium range doesn't make a lot of sense to me...because it doesn't take much thought to see it. And if it warms/changes, so what? You simply go along.

It just reeks of laziness, carelessness, and an attitude that they don't care. To me it's not a good message. I understand not having a lot of time to focus on the medium range but that's no real excuse to ignore the obvious imho.

[kanc2001]

When it's painfully obvious, I don't understand it either. For example if there is very good model agreement on highs in the 20s a few days out, it doesn't make much sense to go 5 to 8 degrees warmer. And it takes all of about one minute to glance at all the model guidance and see they are showing temps in the 20s or 850mb temps of -15c. To me the excuse that they don't put much thought into the medium range doesn't make a lot of sense to me...because it doesn't take much thought to see it. And if it warms/changes, so what? You simply go along.

It just reeks of laziness, carelessness, and an attitude that they don't care. To me it's not a good message. I understand not having a lot of time to focus on the medium range but that's no real excuse to ignore the obvious imho.

well if they start warm and bust cold, no one notices but wx geeks anyway. the average public doesn't look this far in advance like us anyway.