stormtracker Posted December 6, 2010 Share Posted December 6, 2010 Again, we ask that folks keep it to model analysis. Despite what you may hear/see, this is the place to put all model threads. We ask all regions to cooperate and for the most part, all but one has. Thanks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted December 6, 2010 Author Share Posted December 6, 2010 We were going to have DT on the radio tonight to do the GFS play by play. If things continue to look interesting, we'll try to get him on for tomorrow's runs. Watch this or other model threads here for the announcement. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Midlo Snow Maker Posted December 6, 2010 Share Posted December 6, 2010 DT is in the chat right now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted December 6, 2010 Author Share Posted December 6, 2010 Looks like some radical differences vs 18z. So far, at 126 this looks like its gonna come west...s/w is stronger out west Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
icebreaker5221 Posted December 6, 2010 Share Posted December 6, 2010 Regardless of where this thing goes, the shortwave is a heck of a lot stronger at 150/ Unfortunately it looks west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Midlo Snow Maker Posted December 6, 2010 Share Posted December 6, 2010 ugly Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Huffwx Posted December 6, 2010 Share Posted December 6, 2010 Its west--and I'm not shocked. NAO spikes to near neutral, Path to near Erie--secondary forms near ACY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted December 6, 2010 Author Share Posted December 6, 2010 Per earthlight, its ugly at 162 for most us. Euro-esque. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Huffwx Posted December 6, 2010 Share Posted December 6, 2010 Per earthlight, its ugly at 162 for most us. Euro-esque. Primary moves along the KY TN line--- Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 6, 2010 Share Posted December 6, 2010 the GFS only beats the Euro when the EURO shows snow but the GFS dosent, When the GFS shows snow and the EURO dosent, the EURO always win. this reminds me of the Last god forsaken La Nina...Cold...Dry...storm...starts off mixed and it becomes a rainstorm...then cold and dry again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 6, 2010 Share Posted December 6, 2010 the GFS only beats the Euro when the EURO shows snow but the GFS dosent, When the GFS shows snow and the EURO dosent, the EURO always win. this reminds me of the Last god forsaken La Nina...Cold...Dry...storm...starts off mixed and it becomes a rainstorm...then cold and dry again. its a week away give it time Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jhamps10 Posted December 6, 2010 Share Posted December 6, 2010 Again, we ask that folks keep it to model analysis. Despite what you may hear/see, this is the place to put all model threads. We ask all regions to cooperate and for the most part, all but one has. Thanks. Just to check, that all but one wouldn't be the Central/western folks would it. if it's not us you don't have to tell who it is, just wanting to see if we're the one not cooperating... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cyclonicjunkie Posted December 6, 2010 Share Posted December 6, 2010 Great App Storm of 1950 FTW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Midlo Snow Maker Posted December 6, 2010 Share Posted December 6, 2010 wayyyyy west Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 6, 2010 Share Posted December 6, 2010 168 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 6, 2010 Share Posted December 6, 2010 168 Way east of the previous gems Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dr No Posted December 6, 2010 Share Posted December 6, 2010 Based on tonights GFS/GGEM run... I'd love to be in State College. Quite a sleet event just west of 95. One thing this will have is some dry air wedge down with dual axis HP to the N/NW. Reminds me a bit of how the VD storm set up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jcwxguy Posted December 6, 2010 Share Posted December 6, 2010 00z gfs looked good for me Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winter_warlock Posted December 6, 2010 Share Posted December 6, 2010 Based on tonights GFS/GGEM run... I'd love to be in State College. Quite a sleet event just west of 95. One thing this will have is some dry air wedge down with dual axis HP to the N/NW. Reminds me a bit of how the VD storm set up. i think even state college will be too warm, this ones for the mountains and western NEWENGLAND, Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dalfy Posted December 6, 2010 Share Posted December 6, 2010 FYI 06z GFS brings it back east.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted December 6, 2010 Share Posted December 6, 2010 FYI 06z GFS brings it back east.. GFS's bias to transition to the coast too early is still in play, though it should get there eventually as the Neg tilt occurs. Overall a better run than 00z but again its 06z I wouldn't hold much weight to it.Though if that piece dropping in on its backside can phase with it quicker it will be more left. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted December 6, 2010 Share Posted December 6, 2010 The 00z UKMET at 144 hours has a 999mb low just west of Bowling Green Kentucky with pretty sharp but slightly positively tilted 500mb trough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted December 6, 2010 Share Posted December 6, 2010 http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/ECMWF0.5_0z/ecmwfloop.html#picture Fascinating storm around NYC, Euro looks to be rain to snow, heavy for a while, them maybe back to rain. Down in Florida, 850 mb freezing line covers most of the state for two nights, not sure if the winds would let up enough for a freeze. 850 mb winds stay up, but would they decouple some at night? Past experience as a child, the Atlantic means few all snow events pre-Christmas on Long Island, but the Upstate might have a fun weekend and maybe a school day Monday... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ender Posted December 6, 2010 Share Posted December 6, 2010 Great App Storm of 1950 FTW Oh look, an analog date! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
okie333 Posted December 6, 2010 Share Posted December 6, 2010 OMG mega west-based -NAO on the 0z ECMWF operational and the 0z ECMWF ensembles (frankly the ensemble version is more impressive given that it's a day-10 ensemble). Allan just changed the graph due to the recently observed low values... and the operational ECM shows it going off that chart too (old chart was down to -300, new chart is down to -500)! Now if only that would retrograde into a -AO... many GFS ensemble members show it doing just that near day 12, bringing the AO off the charts (which ironically were changed last December due to a similar situation). EPO looks to be going negative or at least neutral at the same time as per many GFS ensemble members as well. Very cold Christmas for most of the nation if this verifies. 2010120600z ECMWF RUN NAO Values NAO value for forecast hour 000: -386.759613 NAO value for forecast hour 024: -350.864563 NAO value for forecast hour 048: -290.821655 NAO value for forecast hour 072: -210.884033 NAO value for forecast hour 096: -159.014374 NAO value for forecast hour 120: -182.175781 NAO value for forecast hour 144: -252.48848 NAO value for forecast hour 168: -273.989014 NAO value for forecast hour 192: -325.280212 NAO value for forecast hour 216: -488.048828 NAO value for forecast hour 240: -652.929443 NAO value for Day 1-5: -238.752075 NAO value for Day 6-10: -398.54718 2010120600z ECMWF Ensemble RUN NAO Values NAO value for forecast hour 000: -386.667694 NAO value for forecast hour 024: -357.772583 NAO value for forecast hour 048: -294.455719 NAO value for forecast hour 072: -215.98616 NAO value for forecast hour 096: -182.45549 NAO value for forecast hour 120: -185.387573 NAO value for forecast hour 144: -224.041718 NAO value for forecast hour 168: -219.424316 NAO value for forecast hour 192: -241.598785 NAO value for forecast hour 216: -325.742065 NAO value for forecast hour 240: -413.862976 NAO value for Day 1-5: -247.211502 NAO value for Day 6-10: -284.93396 ECMWF Operational: ECMWF Ensemble: GFS Ensemble AO: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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