Baroclinic Zone Posted August 15, 2011 Author Share Posted August 15, 2011 I think TAN has the most boring weather of any poster covered area, just brutal MEH. You should come on over and you'll see. It's the best boring weather you've ever seen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted August 15, 2011 Author Share Posted August 15, 2011 if you're into radiational cooling...TAN is where's it at lol And the occasional 30" blizzard. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted August 15, 2011 Share Posted August 15, 2011 if you're into radiational cooling...TAN is where's it at lol True, swamp maples turn there even before Petes You should come on over and you'll see. It's the best boring weather you've ever seen. Enroute Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattmfm Posted August 15, 2011 Share Posted August 15, 2011 So we'll be repeating this in 10 days but with the addition of 60kts winds? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted August 15, 2011 Share Posted August 15, 2011 So we'll be repeating this in 10 days but with the addition of 60kts winds? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted August 15, 2011 Share Posted August 15, 2011 Nice pivot point..Hvy hvy snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
New England Storm Posted August 15, 2011 Share Posted August 15, 2011 _ So we have a nor'easter like storm in August! Well It is not so rare, we had one last year on the 25th?. This years however we have some very heavy rain along the Low center near Long Island. RI may get to 3 inches of rain in spots. The same will go for the south cost of CT and parts of Mass by the end of the day. Big rains are on the way. Just think about this type of storm in January Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted August 15, 2011 Share Posted August 15, 2011 Nice pivot point..Hvy hvy snow Dry slot denied, swear I am watching last years radar. East Coast trough in the means, nice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted August 15, 2011 Share Posted August 15, 2011 Dry slot denied, swear I am watching last years radar. East Coast trough in the means, nice. We need that trough axis to shift west by hundreds of miles if we want a shot at a cane coming up here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted August 15, 2011 Share Posted August 15, 2011 We need that trough axis to shift west by hundreds of miles if we want a shot at a cane coming up here. I am rooting for it to stay right where it is, recurve city. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowNH Posted August 15, 2011 Share Posted August 15, 2011 Holy hell that radar really filled in.. it looks like a winter storm now almost.. Heavy floods incoming Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted August 15, 2011 Share Posted August 15, 2011 Starting to add some wind, raw feel now. 3.15 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jebman Posted August 15, 2011 Share Posted August 15, 2011 How often do you hear about a trowal structure up here in MID AUGUST? http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=BOX&product=AFD&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1&highlight=off 000FXUS61 KBOX 151542AFDBOXAREA FORECAST DISCUSSIONNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA1142 AM EDT MON AUG 15 2011.SYNOPSIS...LOW PRESSURE WILL DEEPEN OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST AND MOVENORTHEAST TODAY...BRINGING LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL TO MOST OFSOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN AROUNDMIDWEEK...THEN MOVES OFFSHORE TOWARD THE END OF THIS WORK WEEK.THIS SHOULD PERMIT THE RETURN OF MORE UNSETTLED WEATHER LATE THISWEEK INTO THIS WEEKEND.&&.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...1130 AM UPDATE...WENT WITH A FLOOD WATCH FOR MUCH OF THE AREA WITH OUR HIGHCONFIDENCE FOR FLOODING TO OCCUR IS ACROSS NORTHEAST CT/ALL OF RI/CENTRAL-WESTERN MA AND INTO HILLSBORO CNTY OF NH. COMBINATION OFTROPICAL PLUME/WARM-MOIST CONVEYOR BELT INTERACTING WITH WEAKFRONTAL BOUNDARY AND UPSLOPE FLOW HAS ALREADY RESULTED IN 2-4INCHES OF RAIN SINCE ABOUT 5 AM ACROSS EASTERN CT/RI INTOWORCESTER CNTY. THE NEW 12Z NAM FOCUSES HEAVIEST RAINFALL ACROSSTHIS AREA AS WELL. 00Z ECMWF HAS THE SAME THEME AS WELL. SO FAIRLYCONFIDENCE FOR AN ADDITIONAL WIDESPREAD 1-2 INCH RAINFALL WITHLOCALLY 2-4 INCHES ACROSS EASTERN CT/WESTERN RI INTO WORCESTERCNTY AND NORTHEAST INTO HILLSBORO COUNTY NH GIVEN PROXIMITY TOSURFACE BOUNDARY AND UPSLOPE FLOW AGAINST WORCESTER HILLS ANDMONADNOCKS. THUS A LOW RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL ACROSS THIS AREAWITH A LOW PROB OF A FEW AREAS APPROACHING RAINFALL TOTALS OF 6-7INCHES! WILL BE MONITORING THIS CLOSELY FOR POSSIBLE UPGRADE TOWARNINGS LATER TODAY.THIS WILL ALSO YIELD WIDESPREAD URBAN/POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING INTHE BOSTON-PROVIDENCE AREA RESULTING IN A DIFFICULT LATE DAYCOMMUTE.AS FOR THE FLOOD WATCH DECIDED TO LEAVE OUT THE CT RVR VLY DUE TOSHADOWING EFFECT IN THE VALLEY.&&.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...TONIGHT...OUTCOMES ARE DEPENDENT ON HOW EFFECTIVELY THE SFC LOW PROPAGATESNEWD WITH THE ATTENDANT MEAN MID-LVL TROF. WILL CONTINUE WITH A 0ZGFS/ECMWF BLEND FOR THE PERIOD. BEST FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING ANDISENTROPIC ASCENT OF THE WARM MOIST CONVEYOR BELT SHOULD BE SHIFTEDNEWD WITH THE SFC LOW INTO THE GULF OF ME. SCTD SHOWERS ARE EXPECTEDTO LINGER TOWARDS THE REAR WITH THE MEAN MID-LVL TROF...WHERE ATROWAL STRUCTURE OF ISENTROPIC/ENHANCED ASCENT WILL BE COUPLED WITHA FAVORABLE DEFORMATION ZONE AND MID-LVL FRONTOGENESIS. WILL SEETHIS AREA ACROSS UPSTATE NY GRADUALLY DRIFT SEWD INTO THE WRN FCSTRGNS...WHILE THE ERN AREAS DRY OUT AS MID-LVL DRY AIR WRAPS AHEAD OFTHE MID-LVL TROF TOWARDS THE SFC LOW.ABUNDANCE OF MOISTURE WILL KEEP MINS MILD...BUT BY MORNING BACKEDN/NW FLOW MAY BRING SOME SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR SWD. UPPER 50S TO LOW60S ANTICIPATED. WINDS DIMINISHING ALONG THE E SHORELINE WITHEXITING SFC LOW.TUESDAY...TROWAL STRUCTURE COLLOCATED WITH THE BEST MID-LVL FRONTOGENESIS ANDDEFORMATION CONTINUE TO SLIDE SEWD AND EXTEND THRU MUCH OF NEWENGLAND. THE REMAINING MOISTURE ALONG WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED LIFTAND Q-VECT CONVERGENCE WILL RESULT IN CONTINUED SCTD SHOWERS...HAVEGONE WITH CHC POPS. WILL ALSO LIKELY SEE SOME LOW-MID LVL SUPPORTALONG AND AHEAD OF A SECONDARY COLD FRONT SINKING SEWD FROM THE ERNGRT LKS RGN TOWARDS EVNG. A SLIGHTLY MORE MILDER DAY WITH TEMPS INTHE LOW TO MID 70S.&&.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...HIGHLIGHTS... * SHOWERS TAPER OFF TUESDAY EVENING * DRY WEATHER EXPECTED FOR THE MIDDLE OF THIS WEEK * MORE UNSETTLED WEATHER POSSIBLE LATE THIS WEEK INTO THIS WEEKENDMODEL PREFERENCES AND OVERVIEW...15/00Z NAM CONTINUES TO BE A DEEP OUTLIER SOLUTION...ALTHOUGH NOTAS MUCH OF AN OUTLIER AS THE PAST FEW DAYS. PREFERENCE IS STILL FORA GFS/ECMWF BLEND THROUGH THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST. 00Z GFSBECOMES MORE PROGRESSIVE THAN THE ECMWF THURSDAY...AND CONTINUESTHAT TREND THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND. THINKING NOW IS THE GFS IS TOOPROGRESSIVE TO RETURN RAINFALL TO OUR REGION WITH A HIGH PRESSUREOVER THE NORTH ATLANTIC THURSDAY. IN THIS REGARD...WILL FAVOR THESLOWER ECMWF TIMING.DETAILS...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH WEAK REX BLOCK SETUP...RIDGING WILL DOMINATE ALOFT THROUGHTHE PERIOD WITH TIME MEAN JET REMAINING TO THE NORTH OF SOUTHERNNEW ENGLAND. AIRMASS APPEARS TO BE DRY WITH 850 MB TEMPERATURES INTHE +13C TO +15C RANGE. THIS SUGGESTS ANOTHER ROUND OF LOWER 80SWITH MID 80S IN WARMER REGIONS. RETURN FLOW BEGINS THURSDAY AS A HIGHPRESSURE MOVES OVER THE NORTH ATLANTIC. GFS STILL TRYING TOSUGGEST SOME CONVECTION DEVELOPING OVER THE WESTERN HALF OFSOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. SEE LITTLE IN THE WAY OF DYNAMIC FORCING...AND MORE IMPORTANTLY SUFFICIENT MOISTURE...SO WILL CONTINUE WITH ADRY FORECAST THROUGH MOST OF THURSDAY. CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE OUTTHE POSSIBILITY OF ISOLATED CONVECTION LATE IN THE DAY WEST OF THECT RIVER.FRIDAY INTO SUNDAY...00Z GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO FAVOR THE APPROACH OF A WARM FRONT LATETHIS WEEK. TIMING SI FAR FROM CERTAIN AT THIS POINT...SO HAVE ABROAD PERIOD OF RAINFALL CHANCES THURSDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. ATTHINKING THE GREATEST RISK FOR SHOWERS SHOULD BE FRIDAY INTOFRIDAY NIGHT...BUT THIS MAY CHANGE WITH FUTURE FORECASTS.&&.AVIATION /15Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS... LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT MODERATE...30 PERCENT TO 60 PERCENT HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT1040 AM...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAFS. IFR/MVFR CIGS ANTICIPATED BYEARLY AFTERNOON...ALTHOUGH TREND AT COASTAL SITES MAY BRINGCIGS/VSBYS TOO QUICKLY AND FURTHER AMENDMENTS MAY BE NEEDED TO DELAYONSET. HEAVIEST RAIN AND LOWEST CONDITIONS WILL BE FOCUSED W OFCOASTAL FRONT THROUGH MID AFTERNOON ACROSS RI...CENTRAL MA AND SW NH.HIGHER CONFIDENCE IN WIDESPREAD IFR/LIFR TONIGHT AND EARLY TUEMORNING BEFORE CONDITIONS SLOWLY IMPROVE.KBOS TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF. MAY BE TOO FAST IN LOWERING CONDITIONSAROUND 18Z AS HEAVIEST RAINFALL SHOULD REMAIN TO W OF TERMINAL.HOWEVER ONSHORE FLOW IS EXPECTED TO BRING AT LEAST LOWER CIGS INTOALL OF EASTERN MA.OUTLOOK...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...TUESDAY NIGHT...CLEARING TO VFR.WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR VFR WEDNESDAY. MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE FORVFR THURSDAY.FRIDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE VFR DOMINATES...BUT PERIODS OF MVFRARE POSSIBLE IN -SHRA/TSRA.&&.MARINE...HAVE HOISTED SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES FOR MUCH OF THE WATERS WITH THEANTICIPATION OF THE SFC LOW TRACKING OFFSHORE RESULTING IN INCREASEDSWELLS AND WAVES OVER 5 FEET...ALONG WITH E/NE WINDS IN EXCESS OF 25KTS INTO THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HRS. WINDS AND SEAS WILL DIMINISHTOWARDS TUESDAY MORNING ACROSS THE INNER WATERS...BUT EXPECTCONDITIONS ABOVE SMALL CRAFT THRESHOLDS TO REMAIN ACROSS THE OUTERWATERS INTO TUESDAY NIGHT.OUTLOOK...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL ALLOW WINDS AND SEAS TO REMAIN BELOW SMALLCRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA THROUGH THURSDAY. A WARM FRONT SHOULDAFFECT THE WATERS FRIDAY...BUT WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD STILL REMAINBELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS.&&.HYDROLOGY...SINCE 5 AM ALREADY RECEIVED NUMEROUS REPORTS OF 2-4 INCHES OFRAINFALL ACROSS EASTERN CT/RI INTO WORCESTER COUNTY. EXPECTING ANADDITIONAL 1-2 INCHES OF RAINFALL ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION WITHPOSSIBLY ANOTHER 2-4 INCHES OVER EASTERN CT/RI INTO WORCESTERCOUNTY AND NNE INTO SOUTHERN NH. THUS HAVE EXPANDED FLOOD WATCHESFOR THIS AREA AND EASTWARD TO BOSTON-PROVIDENCE AND SOUTHEAST TOTHE CAPE COD CANAL. THIS SHOULD YIELD AT LEAST WIDESPREAD SMALLSTREAM FLOODING/URBAN POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING. WILL HAVE TO MONITORCLOSELY FOR POSSIBLE UPGRADE TO FLOOD WARNINGS.CONTINUED CONFIDENCE IS LOW FOR MAIN STEM RIVER FLOODING DUE TOHIGH FLOOD GUIDANCE NUMBERS. THUS WIDESPREAD RIVER FLOODING NOTANTICIPATED.&&.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...CT...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 9 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR CTZ002>004.MA...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR MAZ004>007- 012>021-026. FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR MAZ002-008-009. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR MAZ023.NH...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NHZ012-015.RI...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR RIZ008. FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR RIZ001>007.MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ235-237. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ232>234. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ231-251. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ250. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ254-255. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ256.&&$$SYNOPSIS...BELK/SIPPRELLNEAR TERM...NOCERA - UPDATED 1139 AMSHORT TERM...SIPPRELLLONG TERM...BELKAVIATION...BELK/SIPPRELLMARINE...BELK/SIPPRELLHYDROLOGY...NOCERA - UPDATED 1139 AM ----------------------- Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted August 15, 2011 Author Share Posted August 15, 2011 Jeb Scooter mentioned a trowal the other day when looking at the models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ski MRG Posted August 15, 2011 Share Posted August 15, 2011 62/61, rain and more rain. I've been to 10 different stores trying to locate an air conditioner to get some relief from this unrelenting heat but there seem to be none left. Evidently this prolonged heat wave has caused a run on even fans. Gotta hand it to Kevin on this one. I thought he was full of sh*t when he said 70's and humid would be unbearable but here it is in the 60's and I can't seem to cool down. Wow, epic torch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ski MRG Posted August 15, 2011 Share Posted August 15, 2011 True, swamp maples turn there even before Petes Enroute Our swamp Maples have already turned.lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted August 15, 2011 Share Posted August 15, 2011 This is precisely the set up to bury us. Dry slots rotating east of most areas (sorry ACK) and a wall of snow marching in from the south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted August 15, 2011 Share Posted August 15, 2011 This is precisely the set up to bury us. Dry slots rotating east of most areas (sorry ACK) and a wall of snow marching in from the south. The plows might not be able to keep up! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted August 15, 2011 Share Posted August 15, 2011 I put lotion on my swampazz, so I don't stick to the leather couch. What in the sam hell? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted August 15, 2011 Share Posted August 15, 2011 What in the sam hell? Look at the dry slot with your name on it heading directly to Mt Tolland! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted August 15, 2011 Author Share Posted August 15, 2011 Playing catch up right now. Closing in on 1". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted August 15, 2011 Share Posted August 15, 2011 coming down in buckets now and doesnt even show much on radar Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted August 15, 2011 Share Posted August 15, 2011 Look at the dry slot with your name on it heading directly to Mt Tolland! ??? heaviest slug of precip heading that way now..with more redeveloping to the SE heading NW..I'm in the pivot point.. feet and feet of snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted August 15, 2011 Share Posted August 15, 2011 ??? heaviest slug of precip heading that way now..with more redeveloping to the SE heading NW..I'm in the pivot point.. feet and feet of sleet FYP Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted August 15, 2011 Share Posted August 15, 2011 Radar looks great but the snow growth blows.....getting frustrated... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted August 15, 2011 Share Posted August 15, 2011 Radar looks great but the snow growth blows.....getting frustrated... this would be rain in the winter too lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted August 15, 2011 Share Posted August 15, 2011 Sun almost out here. Dryslot? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted August 15, 2011 Share Posted August 15, 2011 this would be rain in the winter too lol You haven't lived here long enough to know the microclimate zones. IOW...you're wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted August 15, 2011 Share Posted August 15, 2011 You haven't lived here long enough to know the microclimate zones. IOW...you're wrong. It would depend on the antecedent airmass in the winter whether we'd get a lot of snow out of a system like this. The 850 low tracks between SE MA and ORH on most guidance so that is not favorable for all snow in eastern areas, but if the air mass started off cold, then it would probably be a lot of snow changing to sleet/ZR. If the air mass was more marginal, it would probably be mostly rain in eastern areas and a huge ice storm over the interior. Sfc low tracking over the Cape or SE MA would ensure some type of frozen over interior unless the airmass was brutally above climo for winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted August 15, 2011 Share Posted August 15, 2011 ??? heaviest slug of precip heading that way now..with more redeveloping to the SE heading NW..I'm in the pivot point.. feet and feet of snow Your radar delusions occur regardless of season apparently Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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