Ed Lizard Posted August 15, 2011 Share Posted August 15, 2011 Tiny 1005ish TC goes into Belize Sat. evening 8/20. Josh, time to check on plane and hotel. Not to pat my own back, but back on the main Atlantic TC thread I posted a bunch of images from CIMSS and theorized 93L would come back and be the 8th named non-hurricane of the season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CUmet Posted August 15, 2011 Share Posted August 15, 2011 This is definitely getting better organized, and the conditions over the next few days are favorable. The vorticity off of CIMSS has increased markedly over the past 12 hours. I'd give a Wed-Fri time frame for genesis, and the overall chances of this developing are pretty high given its improved presentation. The latest ECMWF is pretty compelling, and it seems to have done well with short-term genesis events this year. If it manages to avoid Nicaragua/Honduras, this could get quite strong, but that remains to be seen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
icebreaker5221 Posted August 15, 2011 Share Posted August 15, 2011 This is definitely getting better organized, and the conditions over the next few days are favorable. The vorticity off of CIMSS has increased markedly over the past 12 hours. I'd give a Wed-Fri time frame for genesis, and the overall chances of this developing are pretty high given its improved presentation. The latest ECMWF is pretty compelling, and it seems to have done well with short-term genesis events this year. If it manages to avoid Nicaragua/Honduras, this could get quite strong, but that remains to be seen. Yeah, looks like the EC almost wants to pull a Karl, albeit much weaker. (CMC too). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted August 15, 2011 Share Posted August 15, 2011 Not to pat my own back, but back on the main Atlantic TC thread I posted a bunch of images from CIMSS and theorized 93L would come back and be the 8th named non-hurricane of the season. Nice job, Edward! The run then takes it into the Bay of Campeche followed by a hit in MX Mon. AM 8/22 as a 1007 TC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kab2791 Posted August 15, 2011 Share Posted August 15, 2011 Granted we have no closed LLC, but the 18Z SHIPS goes develop happy with 93L. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bryan Wood Posted August 15, 2011 Share Posted August 15, 2011 Granted we have no closed LLC, but the 18Z SHIPS goes develop happy with 93L. It's pretty aggressive for the next 48 hours considering the dry air in the mid and upper levels, but it's got the right idea with gradual strengthening. I'd take away about 30-35 MPH at hr 120 on the most recent run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted August 15, 2011 Share Posted August 15, 2011 Potentially Joshable based on statistical models... Oh please, I want the I-Cyclone U-Tubes and fun stories of Jorge and Josh and Gulf red snapper cooked mojo de ajo style... Fwiw, the 12Z Euro is a bit more impressed with 93L vs. earlier runs. Josh may like this run. We'll see what it does later in the run. Josh would probably be happy with Belize hit. Will it make it that far north? Tiny 1005ish TC goes into Belize Sat. evening 8/20. Josh, time to check on plane and hotel. Yeah, BZ is awesome. These latest tracks are near-perfect-- a smooth WNW heading straight to the Yucatan. Doesn't get better than that. It's almost a tease. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted August 15, 2011 Share Posted August 15, 2011 18Z... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harbourton Posted August 15, 2011 Share Posted August 15, 2011 18Z... Intensity models are also going towards a Cat3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Floydbuster Posted August 15, 2011 Share Posted August 15, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted August 15, 2011 Share Posted August 15, 2011 you like this to go big eh floyd? charley 2 ftw. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted August 15, 2011 Share Posted August 15, 2011 you like this to go big eh floyd? charley 2 ftw. lol. Guess this would be the next threat. Still not seeing where 93L goes. Probably TX/Mexico if it forms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Floydbuster Posted August 15, 2011 Share Posted August 15, 2011 you like this to go big eh floyd? charley 2 ftw. It won't happen. Maybe something for Mexico, but I don't see any signs of a circulation. That contrasts with Charley, which had a vigorous circulation from the start. The wave that left Africa has almost all models latched on to it become a significant tropical cyclone, which contrasts with 93L which only had some model support. This wave the GFS has a monster hurricane, although long term tracks vary from Mexico to New England. The EURO was showing this bombing out in the Bahamas with a clearly rebuilding ridge to it's east. Indeed, no way this system slams through the high like some models (18Z GFS) are showing. This wave off Africa has a decent shot to be a west-runner, IMO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted August 15, 2011 Share Posted August 15, 2011 oh my Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted August 15, 2011 Share Posted August 15, 2011 The 8 pm EDT TWO doesn't have anything new-- which isn't surprising, as the convection has fizzled a bit today. Curious to see what it does overnight. The dmax really helped last night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted August 16, 2011 Share Posted August 16, 2011 It's really dried out a bit this evening-- but let's see what happens overnight. Last night was good to it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted August 16, 2011 Share Posted August 16, 2011 The 8 pm EDT TWO doesn't have anything new-- which isn't surprising, as the convection has fizzled a bit today. Curious to see what it does overnight. The dmax really helped last night. There are a couple of things going for it right now. First, there are no obvious signs of shear now or in the near future. You can see the upper level outflow spreading out rapidly to the west ahead of 93l. The shear is also not likely to increase in the near future thanks to the low OLR phase of a weak, but noticeable kelvin wave which will tend to keep the low level easterly trade winds in check. Its important to note that while Emily did develop during the tail end of a kelvin wave (E on the plot above), it was immediately greeted by the subsident or high OLR phase of the wave which enhanced the low level easterlies, creating the shear over Emily when it was in the Caribbean for the better part of its lifetime. Thus, when I see the decoupled appearance of the low and mid level vorticity centers on the 18z gfs from 93l, I find it pretty suspect and likely not correct because 93l is in the process of interacting with the convective enhancement phase of the kelvin wave (93L on the plot above) which should aid in lessening the low level easterlies, thus preventing the separation of the low and mid level centers unless there is more westerly upper level flow, which is not indicated from the gfs at this time. Dry air may still be an issue, but under a lower shear regime, I don't think it will prevent development of 93l. The kelvin wave may also help with convective enhancement over the next couple of days before it moves fully eastward of the vicinity. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectKing Posted August 16, 2011 Share Posted August 16, 2011 HWRF (though it has been horrible intensity wise this year) would like to invite Josh back to familar chase grounds! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted August 16, 2011 Share Posted August 16, 2011 There are a couple of things going for it right now. First, there are no obvious signs of shear now or in the near future. You can see the upper level outflow spreading out rapidly to the west ahead of 93l. The shear is also not likely to increase in the near future thanks to the low OLR phase of a weak, but noticeable kelvin wave which will tend to keep the low level easterly trade winds in check. Its important to note that while Emily did develop during the tail end of a kelvin wave (E on the plot above), it was immediately greeted by the subsident or high OLR phase of the wave which enhanced the low level easterlies, creating the shear over Emily when it was in the Caribbean for the better part of its lifetime. Thus, when I see the decoupled appearance of the low and mid level vorticity centers on the 18z gfs from 93l, I find it pretty suspect and likely not correct because 93l is in the process of interacting with the convective enhancement phase of the kelvin wave (93L on the plot above) which should aid in lessening the low level easterlies, thus preventing the separation of the low and mid level centers unless there is more westerly upper level flow, which is not indicated from the gfs at this time. Dry air may still be an issue, but under a lower shear regime, I don't think it will prevent development of 93l. The kelvin wave may also help with convective enhancement over the next couple of days before it moves fully eastward of the vicinity. Cool-- glad to hear you see some positives here. We're needing some good news! HWRF (though it has been horrible intensity wise this year) would like to invite Josh back to familar chase grounds! Wow-- that is beyond hawt. Just perfect. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kab2791 Posted August 16, 2011 Share Posted August 16, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Floydbuster Posted August 16, 2011 Share Posted August 16, 2011 This thing is more parched than a downy dryer sheet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted August 16, 2011 Share Posted August 16, 2011 The latest (2 am EDT) TWO notes the lack of convection and suggests development won't happen until it reaches the W Caribbean in a few days. Despite that, I notice a slight increase in the convection ins the last hour or two. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted August 16, 2011 Share Posted August 16, 2011 0z Euro is a bit north and stronger before the Yucatan landfall... I would still like some more latitude gain. Also, the Euro shows significant organization for the next 6 hours, let's see what it looks like in the morning Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted August 16, 2011 Share Posted August 16, 2011 0z Euro is a bit north and stronger before the Yucatan landfall... I would still like some more latitude gain. Also, the Euro shows significant organization for the next 6 hours, let's see what it looks like in the morning Hmmm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
VAwxman Posted August 16, 2011 Share Posted August 16, 2011 Hmmm. 6z HWRF pretty pornographic too. although it misses the Yucatan to the north (a track that I find unlikely, but hey it's cool to look at). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted August 16, 2011 Share Posted August 16, 2011 Meh. Not even a hint of low level rotation on HI RES VIS imagery. Looks like nothing but a wave axis traveling W bound around 15kts. Maybe a chance that something tries to spin up past 70W, but probably too late to keep it from gaining much latitude, if any... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
VAwxman Posted August 16, 2011 Share Posted August 16, 2011 Meh. Not even a hint of low level rotation on HI RES VIS imagery. Looks like nothing but a wave axis traveling W bound around 15kts. Maybe a chance that something tries to spin up past 70W, but probably too late to keep it from gaining much latitude, if any... Yeah this has a shot starting around Thursday probably, but by then even if it gets going I don't see how it won't be into the Yucatan or buried in Belize or something. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted August 16, 2011 Share Posted August 16, 2011 Home made NASA visible close-up Lots of storms, but nothing looking very organized. I predict invest flight cancelled. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted August 16, 2011 Share Posted August 16, 2011 Meh. Not even a hint of low level rotation on HI RES VIS imagery. Looks like nothing but a wave axis traveling W bound around 15kts. Maybe a chance that something tries to spin up past 70W, but probably too late to keep it from gaining much latitude, if any... There was some, very slight hints of low level rotation well SE of the main blob of convection in the first vis shots this morning, but it looks like they have "reformed" closer to the convection...but very weakly so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted August 16, 2011 Share Posted August 16, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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