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Tiny 1005ish TC goes into Belize Sat. evening 8/20. Josh, time to check on plane and hotel. ;)

Not to pat my own back, but back on the main Atlantic TC thread I posted a bunch of images from CIMSS and theorized 93L would come back and be the 8th named non-hurricane of the season.

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This is definitely getting better organized, and the conditions over the next few days are favorable. The vorticity off of CIMSS has increased markedly over the past 12 hours. I'd give a Wed-Fri time frame for genesis, and the overall chances of this developing are pretty high given its improved presentation. The latest ECMWF is pretty compelling, and it seems to have done well with short-term genesis events this year. If it manages to avoid Nicaragua/Honduras, this could get quite strong, but that remains to be seen.

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This is definitely getting better organized, and the conditions over the next few days are favorable. The vorticity off of CIMSS has increased markedly over the past 12 hours. I'd give a Wed-Fri time frame for genesis, and the overall chances of this developing are pretty high given its improved presentation. The latest ECMWF is pretty compelling, and it seems to have done well with short-term genesis events this year. If it manages to avoid Nicaragua/Honduras, this could get quite strong, but that remains to be seen.

Yeah, looks like the EC almost wants to pull a Karl, albeit much weaker. (CMC too).

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Not to pat my own back, but back on the main Atlantic TC thread I posted a bunch of images from CIMSS and theorized 93L would come back and be the 8th named non-hurricane of the season.

Nice job, Edward! The run then takes it into the Bay of Campeche followed by a hit in MX Mon. AM 8/22 as a 1007 TC.

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Granted we have no closed LLC, but the 18Z SHIPS goes develop happy with 93L.

It's pretty aggressive for the next 48 hours considering the dry air in the mid and upper levels, but it's got the right idea with gradual strengthening. I'd take away about 30-35 MPH at hr 120 on the most recent run.

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Potentially Joshable based on statistical models...

:lol:

Oh please, I want the I-Cyclone U-Tubes and fun stories of Jorge and Josh and Gulf red snapper cooked mojo de ajo style...

:wub:

Fwiw, the 12Z Euro is a bit more impressed with 93L vs. earlier runs. Josh may like this run. We'll see what it does later in the run. Josh would probably be happy with Belize hit. Will it make it that far north?

Tiny 1005ish TC goes into Belize Sat. evening 8/20. Josh, time to check on plane and hotel. ;)

Yeah, BZ is awesome. These latest tracks are near-perfect-- a smooth WNW heading straight to the Yucatan. Doesn't get better than that. It's almost a tease.

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you like this to go big eh floyd? charley 2 ftw. :scooter:

It won't happen. Maybe something for Mexico, but I don't see any signs of a circulation. That contrasts with Charley, which had a vigorous circulation from the start.

The wave that left Africa has almost all models latched on to it become a significant tropical cyclone, which contrasts with 93L which only had some model support. This wave the GFS has a monster hurricane, although long term tracks vary from Mexico to New England. The EURO was showing this bombing out in the Bahamas with a clearly rebuilding ridge to it's east. Indeed, no way this system slams through the high like some models (18Z GFS) are showing. This wave off Africa has a decent shot to be a west-runner, IMO.

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The 8 pm EDT TWO doesn't have anything new-- which isn't surprising, as the convection has fizzled a bit today. Curious to see what it does overnight. The dmax really helped last night.

29bjyh4.png

There are a couple of things going for it right now. First, there are no obvious signs of shear now or in the near future. You can see the upper level outflow spreading out rapidly to the west ahead of 93l. The shear is also not likely to increase in the near future thanks to the low OLR phase of a weak, but noticeable kelvin wave which will tend to keep the low level easterly trade winds in check. Its important to note that while Emily did develop during the tail end of a kelvin wave (E on the plot above), it was immediately greeted by the subsident or high OLR phase of the wave which enhanced the low level easterlies, creating the shear over Emily when it was in the Caribbean for the better part of its lifetime.

Thus, when I see the decoupled appearance of the low and mid level vorticity centers on the 18z gfs from 93l, I find it pretty suspect and likely not correct because 93l is in the process of interacting with the convective enhancement phase of the kelvin wave (93L on the plot above) which should aid in lessening the low level easterlies, thus preventing the separation of the low and mid level centers unless there is more westerly upper level flow, which is not indicated from the gfs at this time.

Dry air may still be an issue, but under a lower shear regime, I don't think it will prevent development of 93l. The kelvin wave may also help with convective enhancement over the next couple of days before it moves fully eastward of the vicinity.

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There are a couple of things going for it right now. First, there are no obvious signs of shear now or in the near future. You can see the upper level outflow spreading out rapidly to the west ahead of 93l. The shear is also not likely to increase in the near future thanks to the low OLR phase of a weak, but noticeable kelvin wave which will tend to keep the low level easterly trade winds in check. Its important to note that while Emily did develop during the tail end of a kelvin wave (E on the plot above), it was immediately greeted by the subsident or high OLR phase of the wave which enhanced the low level easterlies, creating the shear over Emily when it was in the Caribbean for the better part of its lifetime.

Thus, when I see the decoupled appearance of the low and mid level vorticity centers on the 18z gfs from 93l, I find it pretty suspect and likely not correct because 93l is in the process of interacting with the convective enhancement phase of the kelvin wave (93L on the plot above) which should aid in lessening the low level easterlies, thus preventing the separation of the low and mid level centers unless there is more westerly upper level flow, which is not indicated from the gfs at this time.

Dry air may still be an issue, but under a lower shear regime, I don't think it will prevent development of 93l. The kelvin wave may also help with convective enhancement over the next couple of days before it moves fully eastward of the vicinity.

Cool-- glad to hear you see some positives here. We're needing some good news! :)

HWRF (though it has been horrible intensity wise this year) would like to invite Josh back to familar chase grounds!

Wow-- that is beyond hawt. Just perfect.

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Meh. Not even a hint of low level rotation on HI RES VIS imagery. Looks like nothing but a wave axis traveling W bound around 15kts. Maybe a chance that something tries to spin up past 70W, but probably too late to keep it from gaining much latitude, if any...

post-32-0-85194100-1313498026.jpg

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Meh. Not even a hint of low level rotation on HI RES VIS imagery. Looks like nothing but a wave axis traveling W bound around 15kts. Maybe a chance that something tries to spin up past 70W, but probably too late to keep it from gaining much latitude, if any...

Yeah this has a shot starting around Thursday probably, but by then even if it gets going I don't see how it won't be into the Yucatan or buried in Belize or something.

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Meh. Not even a hint of low level rotation on HI RES VIS imagery. Looks like nothing but a wave axis traveling W bound around 15kts. Maybe a chance that something tries to spin up past 70W, but probably too late to keep it from gaining much latitude, if any...

There was some, very slight hints of low level rotation well SE of the main blob of convection in the first vis shots this morning, but it looks like they have "reformed" closer to the convection...but very weakly so.

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