Srain Posted August 14, 2011 Share Posted August 14, 2011 I'm liking the W trend in the models, and I know weak = good right now if we want it to get W and not fish-- but now I'm getting a tad worried about the system holding together. The evening TWO reduces it to 0%-- barely a lemon anymore. Grrrr. It’s actually moving toward a more favorable area for development near 50-55W. It appears this area is where the overall environment will become conducive to start the TC genesis processes. Give it a couple of more days and I suspect things will look much different than tonight... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted August 14, 2011 Share Posted August 14, 2011 It’s actually moving toward a more favorable area for development near 50-55W. It appears this area is where the overall environment will become conducive to start the TC genesis processes. Give it a couple of more days and I suspect things will look much different than tonight... It looks strung out, but convection is already increasing. IR2 imagery suggests the vorticity is trailing the convection somewhat. Don't think its shear, just that the weak vort max (quite weak per CIMSS analysis) hasn't quite reached the area more favorable for convection. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CUmet Posted August 14, 2011 Share Posted August 14, 2011 I'm liking the W trend in the models, and I know weak = good right now if we want it to get W and not fish-- but now I'm getting a tad worried about the system holding together. The evening TWO reduces it to 0%-- barely a lemon anymore. Grrrr. Weaker is not good at this point. The window has closed as far as this being a fish. The real thing you should worry about is whether this crashes into Central America/Yucatan before it has a chance to really get itself going. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted August 14, 2011 Share Posted August 14, 2011 Weaker is not good at this point. The window has closed as far as this being a fish. The real thing you should worry about is whether this crashes into Central America/Yucatan before it has a chance to really get itself going. OK, gotcha. I didn't realize we'd escaped the fish threat. Cool. So what are your vague thoughts Re: this system's future? Do you think it's get going, and what do you envision in terms of general track-- C America, Yucatan, Gulf...? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CUmet Posted August 14, 2011 Share Posted August 14, 2011 OK, gotcha. I didn't realize we'd escaped the fish threat. Cool. So what are your vague thoughts Re: this system's future? Do you think it's get going, and what do you envision in terms of general track-- C America, Yucatan, Gulf...? The increase in convection tonight is a promising sign and shows that it isn't dead, but this is a long ways away from being a TD. I don't think this will undergo genesis until at least 70W, given its current poor organization. The conditions in the central and eastern Caribbean aren't super-favorable either...the low-level flow looks to be somewhat faster than the upper-level easterlies, resulting in moderate westerly shear. Given its shallow nature, I think this is a CA or Yucatan storm. Maybe it gets into the Gulf afterwards, but that's a long ways away and difficult to speculate on. Things aren't looking too good for you to be honest. The best you can hope for I think is that this convective flareup is what starts the TC genesis process, and this develops by the Lesser Antilles, giving it more time to intensify. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted August 14, 2011 Share Posted August 14, 2011 The increase in convection tonight is a promising sign and shows that it isn't dead, but this is a long ways away from being a TD. I don't think this will undergo genesis until at least 70W, given its current poor organization. The conditions in the central and eastern Caribbean aren't super-favorable either...the low-level flow looks to be somewhat faster than the upper-level easterlies, resulting in moderate westerly shear. Given its shallow nature, I think this is a CA or Yucatan storm. Maybe it gets into the Gulf afterwards, but that's a long ways away and difficult to speculate on. Things aren't looking too good for you to be honest. The best you can hope for I think is that this convective flareup is what starts the TC genesis process, and this develops by the Lesser Antilles, giving it more time to intensify. Wow, I feel like I just got bad news from the doctor. Well, I appreciate the honest prognosis. Thanks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kab2791 Posted August 14, 2011 Share Posted August 14, 2011 Looping the 00Z GFS 850 Vorticity depiction will feel like a terminal cancer diagnosis compared to the 12Z run. Wow, I feel like I just got bad news from the doctor. Well, I appreciate the honest prognosis. Thanks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kab2791 Posted August 14, 2011 Share Posted August 14, 2011 BEGINNHC_ATCF invest_DEACTIVATE_al932011.ren FSTDA R U 040 010 0000 201108140416 NONE NOTIFY=ATRP END Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted August 14, 2011 Share Posted August 14, 2011 I wonder if a barely detectable wave hitting C.A. was the last straw on pulling the plug on 93L. I knew the 0% lemon wasn't a good sign. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted August 14, 2011 Share Posted August 14, 2011 They dropped it. No lemon. No nada. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted August 14, 2011 Share Posted August 14, 2011 They dropped it. No lemon. No nada. Nice nocturnal burst overnight with the former invest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted August 14, 2011 Share Posted August 14, 2011 Nice nocturnal burst overnight with the former invest. Lolz you're right. As soon as we declare it dead, it has a nice ball of convection. I believe that ball is ahead of the actual vorticity-- or whatever there is of any vorticity-- but it's still kind of interesting, I guess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted August 14, 2011 Share Posted August 14, 2011 Lolz you're right. As soon as we declare it dead, it has a nice ball of convection. I believe that ball is ahead of the actual vorticity-- or whatever there is of any vorticity-- but it's still kind of interesting, I guess. True, however would still be something to monitor through the day to see if it persists some. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted August 14, 2011 Share Posted August 14, 2011 Lolz you're right. As soon as we declare it dead, it has a nice ball of convection. I believe that ball is ahead of the actual vorticity-- or whatever there is of any vorticity-- but it's still kind of interesting, I guess. Yep. The wave axis is near 44-48W and still suggesting some weak mid level rotation. We'll need to wait until 50-55W for any actual development, if then. That said, as soon as the convective ball (disturbed area or leading area within the pouch) neared 50W, it did start to fire. We may not have seen the last of this feature just yet. The 'Carla Cradle' is yet to come. Remember Emily returned after deactivation as well. We will see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted August 14, 2011 Share Posted August 14, 2011 6Z GFS develops it some, (maybe a TD, not anything more) per 850 mb vorticity, but drives it due West into Central America. At the end of fantasy land, something moves North out of the Pacific into the Carla Cradle as Steve calls it and tries to develop... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eyewall2005 Posted August 15, 2011 Share Posted August 15, 2011 Apparently americanwx has been down for a while but anyway invest 93L as be reactivated as there has been some further convective bursts over night though theres doesn't appear to be much development were it counts for the time being. Rediculous ridge over texas should prevent much northward progression into the gulf. Both the european and gfs global models take this into central america which looks like a good forecast to me at this time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted August 15, 2011 Share Posted August 15, 2011 Potentially Joshable based on statistical models... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kab2791 Posted August 15, 2011 Share Posted August 15, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
icebreaker5221 Posted August 15, 2011 Share Posted August 15, 2011 Despite the very picturesque flare-up, looking at the water vapor I have a tough time believing this thing won't have serious dry air entrainment issues. That said, shear is very low right now, (but unfortunately will likely increase a bit overnight). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted August 15, 2011 Share Posted August 15, 2011 Despite the very picturesque flare-up, looking at the water vapor I have a tough time believing this thing won't have serious dry air entrainment issues. That said, shear is very low right now, (but unfortunately will likely increase a bit overnight). Yeah, shear won't be a deterrent... another perspective: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted August 15, 2011 Share Posted August 15, 2011 fwiw... SYNOPSIS 2011081500P15L … 93L 14N, 50W 700 hPa In both models, 93L is initially present only at 700 hPa and then is gradually depicted at lower levels. ECMWF: Slight intensification for two days, then weakening. Very tiny pouch at the end. As a matter of fact, beyond 84 hours, multiple potential pouches are depicted, with a tiny pouch with higher OW values being a bit north of the large OW max that was probably the original pouch; hence the slight northward shift. (In retrospect, maybe I should have continued tracking the larger, southern OW max into Nicaragua.) Again, these are tiny features that other models may even depict! GFS: Small, temporary intensification at 48 hours when 93L "merges" with the environmental circulation on the Venezuelan coast. UKMET: (Not available) NOGAPS: (Not examined) HWRF-GEN: (Data only to 84 hours) OUTLIER! Steady intensification into what appears to be a tropical storm. ECMWF -9.2 v700 120h GFS -9.1 v700 120h UKMET ---- ---- ---h NOGAPS ---- ---- ---h HWGEN -8.2 v700 84h+ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted August 15, 2011 Share Posted August 15, 2011 Oh please, I want the I-Cyclone U-Tubes and fun stories of Jorge and Josh and Gulf red snapper cooked mojo de ajo style... 000 NOUS42 KNHC 151500 WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL. 1100 AM EDT MON 15 AUGUST 2011 SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD) VALID 16/1100Z TO 17/1100Z AUGUST 2011 TCPOD NUMBER.....11-076 I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS 1. SUSPECT AREA (SOUTH OF PUERTO RICO) FLIGHT ONE -- TEAL 70 A. 16/1800Z B. AFXXX 01FFA INVEST C. 16/1700Z D. 15.0N 65.0W E. 16/1730Z TO 16/2130Z F. SFC TO 10,000 FT 2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY: BEGIN 12-HRLY FIXES AT 17/1200Z IF SYSTEM DEVELOPS. 3. REMARK: TASKING FOR SUSPECT AREA SOUTHEAST OF BERMUDA FOR 15/1800Z AND 16/0600Z CANCELED BY NHC AT 15/1100Z. II. PACIFIC REQUIREMENTS 1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS. 2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK.....NEGATIVE. JWP EDIT TO ADD Adam will 5 post me if I post a picture, but NAM is moderately enthusiastic and extrapolates to Belize or the Yucatan... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow_Miser Posted August 15, 2011 Share Posted August 15, 2011 It looks like 93L has more 850 mb Vorticy associated with it than the previous update. A sign that it might be trying to get a spin going. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brent Posted August 15, 2011 Share Posted August 15, 2011 Big change from earlier at 2 A VIGOROUS TROPICAL WAVE IS PRODUCING A LARGE AREA OF CLOUDINESS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE LESSER ANTILLES AND ADJACENT WATERS OF THE ATLANTIC AND CARIBBEAN SEA. THERE ARE NO SIGNS OF A SURFACE CIRCULATION AND PRESSURES ARE NOT FALLING SIGNIFICANTLY WITH THIS DISTURBANCE. HOWEVER...ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE MARGINALLY FAVORABLE FOR SOME DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THIS LARGE DISTURBANCE WILL BRING BRIEF PERIODS OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS TO PORTIONS OF THE LESSER ANTILLES TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AT 15 TO 20 MPH. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted August 15, 2011 Share Posted August 15, 2011 Fwiw, the 12Z Euro is a bit more impressed with 93L vs. earlier runs. Josh may like this run. We'll see what it does later in the run. Josh would probably be happy with Belize hit. Will it make it that far north? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
VAwxman Posted August 15, 2011 Share Posted August 15, 2011 I still have a feeling this ultimately develops, but maybe I'm wrong. Shear pattern looks okay but has that drier air in the way. If it does develop it's probably a Central America / Yucatan problem and not the U.S. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted August 15, 2011 Share Posted August 15, 2011 I still have a feeling this ultimately develops, but maybe I'm wrong. Shear pattern looks okay but has that drier air in the way. If it does develop it's probably a Central America / Yucatan problem and not the U.S. You thinking Fri-Sat in the Western Caribbean or earlier than that? That was my best effort this morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
VAwxman Posted August 15, 2011 Share Posted August 15, 2011 You thinking Fri-Sat in the Western Caribbean or earlier than that? That was my best effort this morning. I'd leave the door open starting Thursday. Then see how far south it gets buried. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted August 15, 2011 Share Posted August 15, 2011 Tiny 1005ish TC goes into Belize Sat. evening 8/20. Josh, time to check on plane and hotel. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kab2791 Posted August 15, 2011 Share Posted August 15, 2011 18Z analysis show remarkedly improved vorticity at 850, 700, 500 levels: 850mb 700mb 500mb Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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