HurricaneJosh Posted August 12, 2011 Share Posted August 12, 2011 Lookin' good. Very encouraged by these trends. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
k*** Posted August 12, 2011 Share Posted August 12, 2011 Hispaniola will protect us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted August 13, 2011 Share Posted August 13, 2011 SAL will do it's dirty work in the short term, but this system definately has legs. I don't have much to add from what Adam said earlier, but as most have noted, this is the system to watch for the long term. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadotony Posted August 13, 2011 Share Posted August 13, 2011 It looks like NHC has finally taken the JWDM out of the BETA phase... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cory Posted August 13, 2011 Share Posted August 13, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted August 13, 2011 Share Posted August 13, 2011 Hopefully I have the right one... but 00z GFS takes 93L on a cruise to N MX... which would jive somewhat with the EURO's ideas Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted August 13, 2011 Share Posted August 13, 2011 New GFS beyond resolution chop is wonderful and happy, landfall just South of the Border with rain to Houston, but a Caribbean cruiser up to truncation. Almost Gilbertish vibes on the track, really can't judge intensity on the GFS, although it seems healthy.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WishingForWarmWeather Posted August 13, 2011 Share Posted August 13, 2011 Well, my very modest observations are as follows: 93L looked absolutely gorgeous when it came off of Africa, and people became very excited with it. I think that may be why everyone is getting all butthurt that it's "dying" (their words, not mine) but what is most important to remember is that this once beautiful low is battling very dry air and terrible shear. HOWEVER, this was expected and was NOT a surprise, so I'm not quite sure why some people are acting as though it was not forecasted to do that. This low will be trackable for many days, and I have a good feeling that if it stays on it's westerly path that it will enter areas of very favorable conditions to intensify. Now, perhaps it won't turn into some monster, but I believe it certainly will be very moderate! I think there is enough fuel, enough relaxed shear and enough moist air in the general vicinity of the Leeward Islands/Puerto Rico area to be able to get perhaps to a Cat 1 strength. Farther than that, I don't know that I have much to say. Any comments would be appreciated-- agree, disagree, banter, yell, scream, cry. Whatever it is, make sure I can learn from it, that's all I ask. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted August 13, 2011 Share Posted August 13, 2011 New GFS beyond resolution chop is wonderful and happy, landfall just South of the Border with rain to Houston, but a Caribbean cruiser up to truncation. Almost Gilbertish vibes on the track, really can't judge intensity on the GFS, although it seems healthy.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scott747 Posted August 13, 2011 Share Posted August 13, 2011 There is another storm from 1980 that aligns nicely with our current heat wave. Off by just a few weeks.... http://www.caller.com/news/2011/aug/10/hurricane-allen-put-end-texas-heat-wave-1980/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WishingForWarmWeather Posted August 13, 2011 Share Posted August 13, 2011 Hello, Josh. I've followed you for quite some time now. I truly hope you get an interesting storm to chase this year. <3 Good luck! Here's hoping it's in Texas, they (and my mom) sure do need it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted August 13, 2011 Share Posted August 13, 2011 Some morning WFO snips: San Juan: THIS DRY AIR WILL BE IMMEDIATELY FOLLOW BY THE LEADING EDGE OF A SURFACE LOW...WHICH CURRENTLY IS LOCATED ACROSS THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC MIDWAY BETWEEN AFRICA AND THE LESSER ANTILLES. THIS AREA IS CURRENTLY DISORGANIZED. HOWEVER...CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE FAVORABLE FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT. MOST COMPUTER MODELS AGREED IN A WESTERLY TRACK DURING THE NEXT 72 HOURS...APPROACHING THE LESSER ANTILLES BY TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY MORNING. AT THIS TIME...GFS COMPUTER MODEL INDICATED A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT ALL LEVEL OF THE ATMOSPHERE WILL MOVE IN TANDEM WITH THE LOW AT THE SURFACE...WHICH WILL MAINTAIN THE SYSTEM IN A WESTWARD TRACK FOR THE NEXT THREE DAYS. AFTER DAY THREE...THE GFS DEVELOPS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH JUST NORTHEAST OF THE LOW...PRODUCING A WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE AT UPPER LEVELS. HOWEVER...THE GFS IS INITIALIZING A WEAK SYSTEM. IF THIS VERIFIES..THEN THE LOW WILL PASS MAINLY SOUTH OF THE LOCAL AREA. DUE TO ITS CURRENT POSITION...WILL CONTINUE TO CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM. Key West: MODEL AGREEMENT IS QUITE DIFFERENT AS THE GFS PRODUCES ANOTHER TROPICAL SYSTEM IN THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN THURSDAY AND DRIVES IT TOWARD JAMAICA FRIDAY...WHILE THE ECMWF PRODUCES AN OPEN WAVE NEAR THE SAME LOCATION. THE PAST DAY OF RUNS HAVE PRODUCED SIMILAR LOCATIONS FOR THE SYSTEM SO THE ONLY PROBLEM WILL BE STRENGTH. WILL BE CONSERVATIVE WITH THE FORECAST DUE TO THE GFS CONSISTENTLY OVER INTENSIFYING SYSTEMS THIS YEAR SO FAR...AND WE ARE STILL 7 DAYS OUT. WILL KEEP VIGIL ON THE TROPICS AS USUAL AND UPDATE THE FORECAST AS NEEDED. New Orleans: AS WE APPROACH THE END OF NEXT WEEK...ANOTHER DEEP UPPER TROUGH WILL BE SLOW TO MOVE OVER THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE COUNTRY AS THE BERMUDA RIDGE BUILDS BACK TO THE WEST INTO THE SE CONUS. THE STRONG TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC ROUGHLY ALONG 35W WILL HAVE TRAVERSED THE ATLANTIC AND MOST OF THE CARIBBEAN BY THE END OF THE WEEK. THIS WILL BE A SYSTEM THAT SHOULD CATCH A GOOD BIT OF ATTENTION OVER THIS NEXT WEEK. IT SHOULD ENTER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN BY NEXT WEEKEND. Brownsville: PEERING OUTSIDE OF THE 7 DAY FORECAST PERIOD...BOTH GFS AND THE ECMWF ADVERTISE A TROPICAL SYSTEM ENTERING THE GULF SOMEWHERE NEAR OR JUST NORTH OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA ONE WEEK FROM MONDAY. LOTS OF TIME AND REAL ESTATE TO OVERCOME...BUT WORTH MONITORING. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted August 13, 2011 Share Posted August 13, 2011 Invest 93 looks promising from the models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted August 13, 2011 Share Posted August 13, 2011 Especially when giving less attention to the statistical and climatology models. Using SHIPS as guidance, and not a verbatim forecast, no appreciable increase in strength/organization is likely today. It appears some of the Euro ensembles are more enthusiastic about 93L near the Yucatan than the operational. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Big O Posted August 13, 2011 Share Posted August 13, 2011 Especially when giving less attention to the statistical and climatology models. Using SHIPS as guidance, and not a verbatim forecast, no appreciable increase in strength/organization is likely today. It appears some of the Euro ensembles are more enthusiastic about 93L near the Yucatan than the operational. Link please. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted August 13, 2011 Share Posted August 13, 2011 I took 93L through the Caribbean today with a moderate chance to develop east of the Lesser Antilles by Wednesday. If it doesn't develop then, I'm not expecting it to find favorable conditions until it gets into the Western Caribbean next weekend. Of course, there are worse places for systems to develop. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted August 13, 2011 Share Posted August 13, 2011 While it appears no 12Z forecast track guidance will be issued for 93L, the pouch does remain intact and will need to be monitored as it continues W bound toward the Caribbean Islands... SYNOPSIS 2011081300 P15L … 93L 12N, 33W 700 hPa ECMWF: Large, easily tracked pouch with steady but only slight intensification. GFS: Distinct, strong pouch with a westward track. After slight weakening on Day 1, gradual intensification as it eventually moves into the Caribbean. UKMET: (Not available) NOGAPS: Moves westward with steady OW values. HWRF-GEN: Similar to GFS. ECMWF -8.9 v700 & TPW 120h GFS -9.8 v700 120h UKMET ---- ---- ---h NOGAPS -6.7 v700 & RH 120h HWGEN -8.8 v700 120h Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted August 13, 2011 Share Posted August 13, 2011 The 12Z FS suggests 93L will continue zipping along W bound around 15+ kts through the Caribbean until next Thursday. While some strengthening is suggested E of the Islands, significant increase in vortisity (both in the 850 and 500mb level) does not occur until the Central Caribbean when the forward motions slows dramatically. I continue to believe this will be a player and it should make for some very interesting conversations next week... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted August 13, 2011 Share Posted August 13, 2011 Slowing low level flow is associated with surface convergence, and if the usual Westerlies are present, a decrease in shear. It is why the Western Caribbean is generally more favorable than the Eastern Caribbean. I'm excited just at the chance for a rainmaker that will help at least some of Texas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ivanhater Posted August 13, 2011 Share Posted August 13, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hurricaneman Posted August 13, 2011 Share Posted August 13, 2011 If the gfs 12z happens, Texas would get that needed rain but at what cost Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bkviking Posted August 13, 2011 Share Posted August 13, 2011 If the gfs 12z happens, Texas would get that needed rain but at what cost They're Texans--they'll leave the union if they have to. But big or small they NEED a big rainmaker. I'm disgusted with rain up in NE here lately so I hope Texas takes the baton. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted August 13, 2011 Share Posted August 13, 2011 The 12Z Euro suggests 93L will clip along W bound until landfall along the Nicaragua/Honduras Coast. That model also suggests some modest strengthening near hour 144 until landfall... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted August 13, 2011 Share Posted August 13, 2011 Looking pretty lame on satellite, but still has a decent (not great, but decent) appearance on the CIMSS TPW loop. HPC disco NO CHANGES TO AFTN FINALS FROM EARLIER PRELIMS. LATEST GFSTRENDING TOWARDS THE ENS MEANS USED PREVIOUSLY OF GFS/ECMWF AND NAEFS. ONLY ADDITIONAL FEATURE ADDED IS TROPICAL DEPICTION OF AL93 ENTERING THE CARRIBEAN WITH SEVERAL MODELS INTENSIFYING THE SYSTEM LATE PERIOD AND BEYOND AS IT ENCOUNTERS A MORE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT. SEE NHC/TPC DISCUSSIONS AND OUTLOOKS. RAUSCH/ROSENSTEIN Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted August 13, 2011 Share Posted August 13, 2011 Hello, Josh. I've followed you for quite some time now. I truly hope you get an interesting storm to chase this year. <3 Good luck! Here's hoping it's in Texas, they (and my mom) sure do need it. Oh, hey! How's it going? Thanks for your well wishes. Nice to meet you, and welcome aboard. Some morning WFO snips: Awesome, Steve-- thanks for compiling those. It was great to see this overview of viewpoints in one place. I took 93L through the Caribbean today with a moderate chance to develop east of the Lesser Antilles by Wednesday. If it doesn't develop then, I'm not expecting it to find favorable conditions until it gets into the Western Caribbean next weekend. Of course, there are worse places for systems to develop. Noice. The 12Z FS suggests 93L will continue zipping along W bound around 15+ kts through the Caribbean until next Thursday. While some strengthening is suggested E of the Islands, significant increase in vortisity (both in the 850 and 500mb level) does not occur until the Central Caribbean when the forward motions slows dramatically. I continue to believe this will be a player and it should make for some very interesting conversations next week... That frame is hawt-- with a deep cyclone in the C Caribbean. Haven't seen that in a few years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted August 13, 2011 Share Posted August 13, 2011 If the gfs 12z happens, Texas would get that needed rain but at what cost There are only 4 significant metro areas on the Texas coast that I can think of, BPT, HOU, CRP and BRO. Unless it is a Carla style mega-storm, it would have to hit within about 100 miles with the RF quad to do significant damage. Bret in 1999 was a Cat 4 that weakened to a Cat 4, and hit between BRO and CRP with no major population affects, except for the evacuations. I'm not saying people in smaller coastal communities like Rockport or Palacios don't count, but unlike much of the Atlantic Coast, there are places in Texas even a significant storm can hit without too much damage. As far as significant storms, in such a drought year in Northern Mexico and Texas, what would be fairly insignificant shear for a big storm approaching Florida could act to introduce dry air to an identical system approaching Texas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted August 13, 2011 Share Posted August 13, 2011 As far as significant storms, in such a drought year in Northern Mexico and Texas, what would be fairly insignificant shear for a big storm approaching Florida could act to introduce dry air to an identical system approaching Texas. Just to be clear, TX was in a drought situation in the summer of 2008, although not as severe. A well developed vertically stacked cyclone with an intact inner core would lend to less fluctuation of some continental dry air intrusion. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quixotic1 Posted August 13, 2011 Share Posted August 13, 2011 There are only 4 significant metro areas on the Texas coast that I can think of, BPT, HOU, CRP and BRO. Unless it is a Carla style mega-storm, it would have to hit within about 100 miles with the RF quad to do significant damage. Bret in 1999 was a Cat 4 that weakened to a Cat 4, and hit between BRO and CRP with no major population affects, except for the evacuations. I'm not saying people in smaller coastal communities like Rockport or Palacios don't count, but unlike much of the Atlantic Coast, there are places in Texas even a significant storm can hit without too much damage. As far as significant storms, in such a drought year in Northern Mexico and Texas, what would be fairly insignificant shear for a big storm approaching Florida could act to introduce dry air to an identical system approaching Texas. I agree. With the exception of Galveston, I think most of the Texas coast is either sparsely populated enough to where it doesn't matter, or the major metro areas are far enough inland to not get the worst. The only caveat I would add would be a system like Allison in 2001 or Charley in 1998 when they stalled out and dumped inland. That said, I'd take that rain right now. I wouldn't even think about it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Marion_NC_WX Posted August 14, 2011 Share Posted August 14, 2011 18z GFS follows suit of the 12z EURO taking 93L due west into Central America... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted August 14, 2011 Share Posted August 14, 2011 I'm liking the W trend in the models, and I know weak = good right now if we want it to get W and not fish-- but now I'm getting a tad worried about the system holding together. The evening TWO reduces it to 0%-- barely a lemon anymore. Grrrr. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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