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TS Harvey


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Against my better judgement....but WTH:

a) Caribbean Cruiser/Gulf -15%

B) Island hopper/Shredderola victim -15%

c) FL/East Coast -20%

d) Fish -50%

Being that only about 17% of MDR storms (those that first become TD's E of 50W) have hit the U.S. (EC/FL/GC) since 1960, LEK is being rather bullish since he's going with 20% plus some portion of the Caribbean/Gulf 15%. If I just split in half and call it 7.5% (i.e., 50% chance that a Caribbean/Gulf storm would hit the U.S. GC and not either dissipate or go too far south....seems reasonable based on historical tracks), then I get 27.5% vs. the normal 17% chance...again, pretty bullish. This doesn't seem unreasonable to me based on the low latitude, model expectations of mainly W movement to the LA's, it being only mid-August (less chance for recurvature than, say, mid to late Sep.), no expectations of a H by 40W, it not being an El Nino now, -NAO streak ending, etc. Of course, it remains to be seen if it even becomes a TD by 50W to allow it to be put in the MDR category I use. Moreover, the odds being 27.5% would still mean a pretty strong bet against a U.S. hit from 93L.

I'm maintaining my prediction of five MDR storms and one U.S. hit from those five this season. I'm actually going only 2/3 chance for that hit but that's pretty much a prediction of a hit. Maybe 93L will be the one??

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By the way, the 0Z Euro does very little with 93L and does less than the 12Z euro and much less than recent gfs runs. So, will it ever become a TC?

Edit: Despite not doing much before then, it finally forms a decent sfc low in the western Caribbean.

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I like the slow-to-get-going ideas that others have mentioned. Figure that odds favor either a fish storm or a track thru the Caribbean and a MX / western Gulf threat. Not to say the threat to the SE is zero, but I see it as a lower risk versus the other options.

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The easterly shear that's being diagnosed right now is at a pretty remarkable 35 kt. This may be aiding the entrainment of dry air into the pouch from the downshear-right quadrant as seen in the dividing streamline analysis...note the inward pointing storm-relative wind vectors at low-levels. The shear should slacken off in the next couple days, but 93L should take quite some time to develop...perhaps not until it approaches the Lesser Antilles.

Given how slow the organization process has been and the strength of the ridging to the north, it's becoming pretty difficult to see how this misses the Lesser Antilles to the north. The reliable global model consensus right now is something through the Greater Antilles or a Caribbean cruiser.

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I tend to agree this will not be an issue until beyond 55W. I also suspect this feature will maintain a Westerly track and will be a player down the road. We will see...

SYNOPSIS

2011081200P15L … 93L11N, 24W700 hPa

ECMWF: Large pouch moves westward for the entire five days; however, the pouch is not as strong as in previous runs.

GFS: Distinct, strong pouch with a westward track.

UKMET: Similar to GFS, with a slight but steady weakening during the five days

.NOGAPS: Unlike yesterday, NOGAPS now depicts a pouch in the analysis, and 93L moves westward across the Atlantic, albeit with relatively low OW values.

HWRF-GEN: (Not available)

ECMWF -8.9 v700 120h

GFS -8.6 v700 120h

UKMET -8.9 v700 120h

NOGAPS -8.0 v700 120h

HWGEN ---- ---- ---h

post-32-0-93353500-1313162782.png

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I wouldn't necessarily call this dead or dying. First off, about three mets have popped in this morning to say they don't expect any significant development for days. Second, it still is exhibiting some mid level rotation and is slowly moving westward towards lower shear:

post-525-0-49669700-1313164665.gif

While there is plently of dry air surrounding the invest now, which is likely limiting convection, that is generally forecast to slowly weaken over the coming days. By 72 hours, the 0z Euro shows the invest approaching 50W with no extremely dry air near the system and with very low wind shear around the system:

post-525-0-53894600-1313164937.gif

The NHC is even more bullish about short term development than most in this thread. I really wouldn't worry about what it looks like right now.

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Dude, you need to start doing more than posting a satellite image and a one line nonsensical sentence.

Sorry 19

I was told not to forecast till I receive my weenie tagsarrowheadsmiley.png

the Sal is strong and is making inroads on this system

the Shear is moderate enough to keep the convection knocked down

thats all I got

dm

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Sorry 19

I was told not to forecast till I receive my weenie tagsarrowheadsmiley.png

the Sal is strong and is making inroads on this system

the Shear is moderate enough to keep the convection knocked down

thats all I got

dm

That doesn't mean that's the death of this. Things can change rather quickly.

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That doesn't mean that's the death of this. Things can change rather quickly.

In fact, if you want this thing to make it farther west, it would be better for it to not develop too quickly. Systems that become well developed TS or hurricanes that far east tend to recurve more quickly than ones that get to the 50-60W area before they begin to develop.

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In fact, if you want this thing to make it farther west, it would be better for it to not develop too quickly. Systems that become well developed TS or hurricanes that far east tend to recurve more quickly than ones that get to the 50-60W area before they begin to develop.

12z GFS does exactly that....however, maybe too much so.

Really, development just before the islands would be nice, or then you have to deal with the John Hope rule...and then you may just have a nice strung out wave in the C. Car. Still lots of model adjustments to come...

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The model guidance this afternoon is encouraging, with these straight-W lines. It's great to see these kinds of tracks mid-August-- which is exactly on schedule.

I'm concerned about intensity though. I think it's further west cause it's weaker or has no storm at all like the Euro.

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I hear ya, but getting even a weak impulse to the W Caribbean or Gulf is way more exciting to me than a hawt fish. We have the EPAC for look-but-don't-touch satellite porn.

I think my head will explode if there are too many more POS Tropical Storms that don't become hurricanes.

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I hear ya, but getting even a weak impulse to the W Caribbean or Gulf is way more exciting to me than a hawt fish. We have the EPAC for look-but-don't-touch satellite porn.

True. And you get that stupid rip current from a hurricane way offshore, which ruins an otherwise perfect beach day.

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