GaWx Posted August 12, 2011 Share Posted August 12, 2011 Against my better judgement....but WTH: a) Caribbean Cruiser/Gulf -15% Island hopper/Shredderola victim -15% c) FL/East Coast -20% d) Fish -50% Being that only about 17% of MDR storms (those that first become TD's E of 50W) have hit the U.S. (EC/FL/GC) since 1960, LEK is being rather bullish since he's going with 20% plus some portion of the Caribbean/Gulf 15%. If I just split in half and call it 7.5% (i.e., 50% chance that a Caribbean/Gulf storm would hit the U.S. GC and not either dissipate or go too far south....seems reasonable based on historical tracks), then I get 27.5% vs. the normal 17% chance...again, pretty bullish. This doesn't seem unreasonable to me based on the low latitude, model expectations of mainly W movement to the LA's, it being only mid-August (less chance for recurvature than, say, mid to late Sep.), no expectations of a H by 40W, it not being an El Nino now, -NAO streak ending, etc. Of course, it remains to be seen if it even becomes a TD by 50W to allow it to be put in the MDR category I use. Moreover, the odds being 27.5% would still mean a pretty strong bet against a U.S. hit from 93L. I'm maintaining my prediction of five MDR storms and one U.S. hit from those five this season. I'm actually going only 2/3 chance for that hit but that's pretty much a prediction of a hit. Maybe 93L will be the one?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted August 12, 2011 Share Posted August 12, 2011 By the way, the 0Z Euro does very little with 93L and does less than the 12Z euro and much less than recent gfs runs. So, will it ever become a TC? Edit: Despite not doing much before then, it finally forms a decent sfc low in the western Caribbean. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted August 12, 2011 Share Posted August 12, 2011 I haven't really changed my thoughts today. Still expecting a track through the Leeward Islands to the Greater Antilles. Cyclogenesis not until Wednesday-ish next week. Not really buying the 0z Euro solution unless it takes forever to develop. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
VAwxman Posted August 12, 2011 Share Posted August 12, 2011 I like the slow-to-get-going ideas that others have mentioned. Figure that odds favor either a fish storm or a track thru the Caribbean and a MX / western Gulf threat. Not to say the threat to the SE is zero, but I see it as a lower risk versus the other options. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doorman Posted August 12, 2011 Share Posted August 12, 2011 http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/# How long before we hear the "D" word??? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CUmet Posted August 12, 2011 Share Posted August 12, 2011 The easterly shear that's being diagnosed right now is at a pretty remarkable 35 kt. This may be aiding the entrainment of dry air into the pouch from the downshear-right quadrant as seen in the dividing streamline analysis...note the inward pointing storm-relative wind vectors at low-levels. The shear should slacken off in the next couple days, but 93L should take quite some time to develop...perhaps not until it approaches the Lesser Antilles. Given how slow the organization process has been and the strength of the ridging to the north, it's becoming pretty difficult to see how this misses the Lesser Antilles to the north. The reliable global model consensus right now is something through the Greater Antilles or a Caribbean cruiser. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted August 12, 2011 Share Posted August 12, 2011 I tend to agree this will not be an issue until beyond 55W. I also suspect this feature will maintain a Westerly track and will be a player down the road. We will see... SYNOPSIS 2011081200P15L … 93L11N, 24W700 hPa ECMWF: Large pouch moves westward for the entire five days; however, the pouch is not as strong as in previous runs. GFS: Distinct, strong pouch with a westward track. UKMET: Similar to GFS, with a slight but steady weakening during the five days .NOGAPS: Unlike yesterday, NOGAPS now depicts a pouch in the analysis, and 93L moves westward across the Atlantic, albeit with relatively low OW values. HWRF-GEN: (Not available) ECMWF -8.9 v700 120h GFS -8.6 v700 120h UKMET -8.9 v700 120h NOGAPS -8.0 v700 120h HWGEN ---- ---- ---h Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doorman Posted August 12, 2011 Share Posted August 12, 2011 So are we tracking a dissipating gyre here??? that's what we do???? http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/sat_products.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
VAwxman Posted August 12, 2011 Share Posted August 12, 2011 So are we tracking a dissipating gyre here??? that's what we do???? http://www.nrlmry.na...t_products.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted August 12, 2011 Share Posted August 12, 2011 I wouldn't necessarily call this dead or dying. First off, about three mets have popped in this morning to say they don't expect any significant development for days. Second, it still is exhibiting some mid level rotation and is slowly moving westward towards lower shear: While there is plently of dry air surrounding the invest now, which is likely limiting convection, that is generally forecast to slowly weaken over the coming days. By 72 hours, the 0z Euro shows the invest approaching 50W with no extremely dry air near the system and with very low wind shear around the system: The NHC is even more bullish about short term development than most in this thread. I really wouldn't worry about what it looks like right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doorman Posted August 12, 2011 Share Posted August 12, 2011 well I am not bullish on this.... let me put it that way Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted August 12, 2011 Share Posted August 12, 2011 well I am not bullish on this.... let me put it that way Dude, you need to start doing more than posting a satellite image and a one line nonsensical sentence. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsmwhrms Posted August 12, 2011 Share Posted August 12, 2011 Dude, you need to start doing more than posting a satellite image and a one line nonsensical sentence. Where's the "like" button? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doorman Posted August 12, 2011 Share Posted August 12, 2011 Dude, you need to start doing more than posting a satellite image and a one line nonsensical sentence. Sorry 19 I was told not to forecast till I receive my weenie tags the Sal is strong and is making inroads on this system the Shear is moderate enough to keep the convection knocked down thats all I got dm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted August 12, 2011 Share Posted August 12, 2011 the Sal is strong and is making inroads on this system the Shear is moderate enough to keep the convection knocked down That's cool. This is all you need to say. It's way better than your previous post. Feel free to ask questions, too. We're all here to help. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted August 12, 2011 Share Posted August 12, 2011 Sorry 19 I was told not to forecast till I receive my weenie tags the Sal is strong and is making inroads on this system the Shear is moderate enough to keep the convection knocked down thats all I got dm That doesn't mean that's the death of this. Things can change rather quickly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsmwhrms Posted August 12, 2011 Share Posted August 12, 2011 That doesn't mean that's the death of this. Things can change rather quickly. In fact, if you want this thing to make it farther west, it would be better for it to not develop too quickly. Systems that become well developed TS or hurricanes that far east tend to recurve more quickly than ones that get to the 50-60W area before they begin to develop. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectKing Posted August 12, 2011 Share Posted August 12, 2011 In fact, if you want this thing to make it farther west, it would be better for it to not develop too quickly. Systems that become well developed TS or hurricanes that far east tend to recurve more quickly than ones that get to the 50-60W area before they begin to develop. 12z GFS does exactly that....however, maybe too much so. Really, development just before the islands would be nice, or then you have to deal with the John Hope rule...and then you may just have a nice strung out wave in the C. Car. Still lots of model adjustments to come... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ivanhater Posted August 12, 2011 Share Posted August 12, 2011 Today's 12 Euro still on board...develops prior to the Islands. 120 hours Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted August 12, 2011 Share Posted August 12, 2011 Yep. The Euro likes the Caribbean...for now... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ivanhater Posted August 12, 2011 Share Posted August 12, 2011 Falls apart in the Caribbean Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted August 12, 2011 Share Posted August 12, 2011 GFDL as well. But heading more Northwestward at the end. Outer grid 500 mb heights on the GFDL show an escape path through the Bahamas. Maybe it'll close up before 93L could escape. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ivanhater Posted August 12, 2011 Share Posted August 12, 2011 Getting it's act back together and heading through the channel..and look, ridging off the east coast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted August 12, 2011 Share Posted August 12, 2011 The model guidance this afternoon is encouraging, with these straight-W lines. It's great to see these kinds of tracks mid-August-- which is exactly on schedule. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted August 12, 2011 Share Posted August 12, 2011 The model guidance this afternoon is encouraging, with these straight-W lines. It's great to see these kinds of tracks mid-August-- which is exactly on schedule. I'm concerned about intensity though. I think it's further west cause it's weaker or has no storm at all like the Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted August 12, 2011 Share Posted August 12, 2011 I'm concerned about intensity though. I think it's further west cause it's weaker or has no storm at all like the Euro. I hear ya, but getting even a weak impulse to the W Caribbean or Gulf is way more exciting to me than a hawt fish. We have the EPAC for look-but-don't-touch satellite porn. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted August 12, 2011 Share Posted August 12, 2011 I hear ya, but getting even a weak impulse to the W Caribbean or Gulf is way more exciting to me than a hawt fish. We have the EPAC for look-but-don't-touch satellite porn. I think my head will explode if there are too many more POS Tropical Storms that don't become hurricanes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
k*** Posted August 12, 2011 Share Posted August 12, 2011 I hear ya, but getting even a weak impulse to the W Caribbean or Gulf is way more exciting to me than a hawt fish. We have the EPAC for look-but-don't-touch satellite porn. Agreed. Let's keep it weak and west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Analog96 Posted August 12, 2011 Share Posted August 12, 2011 I hear ya, but getting even a weak impulse to the W Caribbean or Gulf is way more exciting to me than a hawt fish. We have the EPAC for look-but-don't-touch satellite porn. True. And you get that stupid rip current from a hurricane way offshore, which ruins an otherwise perfect beach day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted August 12, 2011 Share Posted August 12, 2011 Got to love the 18Z GFS. Cancun bound... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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