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I believe this is 93?

gfs_ten_300m.gif

gfs_ten_312m.gif

That is awesome... 14 days away... but pretty awesome... which makes me wonder why does NOAA even publish the GFS out past 7-10 days if it is coined as "fantasy land" by the majority of people who look at the models?

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That is awesome... 14 days away... but pretty awesome... which makes me wonder why does NOAA even publish the GFS out past 7-10 days if it is coined as "fantasy land" by the majority of people who look at the models?

It is fantasy land but there's still some use in looking at general patterns.

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It is fantasy land but there's still some use in looking at general patterns.

Agree, and if you get a few runs like the 18z...you can at least "see" how it might be possible to have a US impact...and obviously it's about the general synoptic mid-latitude pattern....now the exact timing, any changes in amplitude, or missed amplifiable shortwaves are not dicernable this far out.

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Hugo redux but this time charleston gets the strongest eyeball winds.

Troublemaker.

Agree, and if you get a few runs like the 18z...you can at least "see" how it might be possible to have a US impact...and obviously it's about the general synoptic mid-latitude pattern....now the exact timing, any changes in amplitude, or missed amplifiable shortwaves are not dicernable this far out.

Thoughts, please?

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Troublemaker.

Thoughts, please?

Pretty much the standard response at this timeframe...models are pretty agreed upon that we will have TC genesis, conditions for the next 5 days would seem to indicate that conditions would be somewhat favorable for development, and models have shifted their long range consensus to the west...but this far out makes that shift only moderately valuable. And what happens with 92L is also of signficant importance (staying far enough out ahead to keep from it's trailing trough from imparting poleward tugs to 93L.)

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Pretty much the standard response at this timeframe...models are pretty agreed upon that we will have TC genesis, conditions for the next 5 days would seem to indicate that conditions would be somewhat favorable for development, and models have shifted their long range consensus to the west...but this far out makes that shift only moderately valuable. And what happens with 92L is also of signficant importance (staying far enough out ahead to keep from it's downstream trough from imparting poleward tugs to 93L.)

Gotcha. Probabilities, please:

a) Caribbean Cruiser/Gulf

b) Island hopper/Shredderola victim

c) FL/East Coast

d) Fish

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1.

2.

3.

4.

would do the trick, besides, I was more bugged out by

-15%

-15%

-20%

-50%

as in all negative baby

Well, I guess the bright side is that LEK says there's a 50% chance of it not being a fish. And some past Shredderola/Cuba victims went on to hit the USA as very intense 'canes. It's not a death sentence.

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Well, I guess the bright side is that LEK says there's a 50% chance of it not being a fish. And some past Shredderola/Cuba victims went on to hit the USA as very intense 'canes. It's not a death sentence.

Well, 2 days ago, the chances of fish certainly looked higher...so whatever trend at these time ranges that you can have value in, is in the favor for a chaseable storm.....

....Going on 1100 days without a LF'ing hurricane in the US.....quite amazing!

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Does anyone know what the longest period the US has gone without a LF'ing hurricane? Would be an interesting stat!

Wiki!

Hurricane Alicia was the first hurricane to hit the United States mainland since Hurricane Allen in August 1980. The time between the two storms totaled three years and eight days (1,103 days), the longest gap between hurricanes striking the United States during recorded hurricane history. The time was the longest the Texas coast has gone without a hurricane landfall since a nearly four year hiatus in hurricanes occurred between September 1882 and June 1886.[

Timmy_and_the_Lords_of_the_Underworld.gif

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Does anyone know what the longest period the US has gone without a LF'ing hurricane? Would be an interesting stat!

Official records go back to 1851. The USA did not have a known hurricane landfall from 1862-1864, which is three consecutive seasons-- so if we don't get a hurricane this year, we'll tie that record.

There have been many instances of two seasons in a row with no 'cane landfall in the USA-- for example, 2000-2001, 1993-1994, 1981-1982, etc.

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Official records go back to 1851. The USA did not have a known hurricane landfall from 1862-1864, which is three consecutive seasons-- so if we don't get a hurricane this year, we'll tie that record.

There have been many instances of two seasons in a row with no 'cane landfall in the USA-- for example, 2000-2001, 1993-1994, 1981-1982, etc.

really interesting and hopefully nobody confuses this with being "overdue" anywhere. Tying a streak that last happened during the US Civil War would certainly be notable and reason for discussion. But, I am not getting ahead of myself.

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really interesting and hopefully nobody confuses this with being "overdue" anywhere. Tying a streak that last happened during the US Civil War would certainly be notable and reason for discussion. But, I am not getting ahead of myself.

Thanks.

The other record is how long the USA has gone without a major (Cat 3). The longest known streak is eight consecutive seasons: 1861-1868. If we don't get a major this year, we'll be up to six.

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Yeah, that's what I was looking at, thanks. :) I have a feeling the Alicia page in general might have some accuracy issues, so I'll take a little closer look sometime soon.

I read the Wiki on Alicia a few years back which is why I "knew" to go straight there to answer the question. Oops.

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Another lemon?

ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL

TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK

NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL

200 AM EDT FRI AUG 12 2011

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

1. A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CENTERED ABOUT 1000 MILES WEST OF

THE SOUTHERN CAPE VERDE ISLANDS IS MOVING WESTWARD AT NEAR 15 MPH.

THE ASSOCIATED SHOWER ACTIVITY REMAINS DISORGANIZED...AND SATELLITE

IMAGERY SUGGESTS THE SYSTEM MAY CURRENTLY BE ENCOUNTERING A DRIER

AND MORE STABLE AIR MASS. HOWEVER...ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE

EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT DURING THE NEXT

SEVERAL DAYS. THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...30 PERCENT...OF

BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

2. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED ABOUT 275 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF THE

SOUTHERN CAPE VERDE ISLANDS IS PRODUCING A LARGE AREA OF CLOUDINESS

AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED

TO GRADUALLY BECOME MORE CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT

SEVERAL DAYS AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AT 15 TO 20 MPH. THIS SYSTEM HAS

A MEDIUM CHANCE...40 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE

DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

3. SHOWER ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE ABOUT

250 MILES WEST-NORTHWEST OF BERMUDA HAS BECOME A LITTLE BETTER

ORGANIZED DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS. ADDITIONAL SLOW

DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO BEFORE THIS

DISTURBANCE MERGES WITH A FRONTAL SYSTEM. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW

CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE

NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES NORTHEASTWARD AT 15 TO 20 MPH.

4. AN AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER HAS FORMED IN ASSOCIATION WITH A BROAD

LOW PRESSURE AREA ABOUT 800 MILES NORTHEAST OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD

ISLANDS. SLOW DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF

DAYS AS THE LOW MOVES WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT ABOUT 10 MPH. THIS

SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL

CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE

NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$

FORECASTER BEVEN

NNNN

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