PDIII Posted August 11, 2011 Share Posted August 11, 2011 I believe this is 93? That is awesome... 14 days away... but pretty awesome... which makes me wonder why does NOAA even publish the GFS out past 7-10 days if it is coined as "fantasy land" by the majority of people who look at the models? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted August 11, 2011 Share Posted August 11, 2011 That is awesome... 14 days away... but pretty awesome... which makes me wonder why does NOAA even publish the GFS out past 7-10 days if it is coined as "fantasy land" by the majority of people who look at the models? It is fantasy land but there's still some use in looking at general patterns. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
k*** Posted August 11, 2011 Share Posted August 11, 2011 I believe this is 93?<img src="http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/carib/gfs/18/images/gfs_ten_300m.gif" /> <img src="http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/carib/gfs/18/images/gfs_ten_312m.gif" /> Hugo redux but this time charleston gets the strongest eyeball winds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectKing Posted August 11, 2011 Share Posted August 11, 2011 It is fantasy land but there's still some use in looking at general patterns. Agree, and if you get a few runs like the 18z...you can at least "see" how it might be possible to have a US impact...and obviously it's about the general synoptic mid-latitude pattern....now the exact timing, any changes in amplitude, or missed amplifiable shortwaves are not dicernable this far out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted August 11, 2011 Share Posted August 11, 2011 Hugo redux but this time charleston gets the strongest eyeball winds. Troublemaker. Agree, and if you get a few runs like the 18z...you can at least "see" how it might be possible to have a US impact...and obviously it's about the general synoptic mid-latitude pattern....now the exact timing, any changes in amplitude, or missed amplifiable shortwaves are not dicernable this far out. Thoughts, please? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BethesdaWX Posted August 11, 2011 Share Posted August 11, 2011 Hugo redux but this time charleston gets the strongest eyeball winds. Using an Iphone? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted August 11, 2011 Share Posted August 11, 2011 Troublemaker. Thoughts, please? Phase change, Best so far, finally something real to watch if it develops. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted August 11, 2011 Share Posted August 11, 2011 Phase change, Best so far, finally something real to watch if it develops. Yeah, it does seem like this could be the first real red-meat cyclone to track this year-- simply because it's not a guaranteed 1) fish and/or 2) piece of crap. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectKing Posted August 12, 2011 Share Posted August 12, 2011 Troublemaker. Thoughts, please? Pretty much the standard response at this timeframe...models are pretty agreed upon that we will have TC genesis, conditions for the next 5 days would seem to indicate that conditions would be somewhat favorable for development, and models have shifted their long range consensus to the west...but this far out makes that shift only moderately valuable. And what happens with 92L is also of signficant importance (staying far enough out ahead to keep from it's trailing trough from imparting poleward tugs to 93L.) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted August 12, 2011 Share Posted August 12, 2011 Pretty much the standard response at this timeframe...models are pretty agreed upon that we will have TC genesis, conditions for the next 5 days would seem to indicate that conditions would be somewhat favorable for development, and models have shifted their long range consensus to the west...but this far out makes that shift only moderately valuable. And what happens with 92L is also of signficant importance (staying far enough out ahead to keep from it's downstream trough from imparting poleward tugs to 93L.) Gotcha. Probabilities, please: a) Caribbean Cruiser/Gulf b) Island hopper/Shredderola victim c) FL/East Coast d) Fish Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectKing Posted August 12, 2011 Share Posted August 12, 2011 Gotcha. Probabilities, please: Against my better judgement....but WTH: a) Caribbean Cruiser/Gulf -15% Island hopper/Shredderola victim -15% c) FL/East Coast -20% d) Fish -50% Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted August 12, 2011 Share Posted August 12, 2011 Against my better judgement....but WTH: a) Caribbean Cruiser/Gulf -15% Island hopper/Shredderola victim -15% c) FL/East Coast -20% d) Fish -50% Thanks. P.S. Admins, you guys should change the code so "b)" doesn't appear as a smiley. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted August 12, 2011 Share Posted August 12, 2011 Thanks. P.S. Admins, you guys should change the code so "b)" doesn't appear as a smiley. - Yes, that was a rather unfortunate code error but with funny results. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
toad strangler Posted August 12, 2011 Share Posted August 12, 2011 - Yes, that was a rather unfortunate code but with funny results. 1. 2. 3. 4. would do the trick, besides, I was more bugged out by -15% -15% -20% -50% as in all negative baby Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted August 12, 2011 Share Posted August 12, 2011 1. 2. 3. 4. would do the trick, besides, I was more bugged out by -15% -15% -20% -50% as in all negative baby Well, I guess the bright side is that LEK says there's a 50% chance of it not being a fish. And some past Shredderola/Cuba victims went on to hit the USA as very intense 'canes. It's not a death sentence. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectKing Posted August 12, 2011 Share Posted August 12, 2011 Well, I guess the bright side is that LEK says there's a 50% chance of it not being a fish. And some past Shredderola/Cuba victims went on to hit the USA as very intense 'canes. It's not a death sentence. Well, 2 days ago, the chances of fish certainly looked higher...so whatever trend at these time ranges that you can have value in, is in the favor for a chaseable storm..... ....Going on 1100 days without a LF'ing hurricane in the US.....quite amazing! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted August 12, 2011 Share Posted August 12, 2011 Well, 2 days ago, the chances of fish certainly looked higher...so whatever trend at these time ranges that you can have value in, is in the favor for a chaseable storm..... ....Going on 1100 days without a LF'ing hurricane in the US.....quite amazing! Well, rub it in, why don't you? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxeyeNH Posted August 12, 2011 Share Posted August 12, 2011 . ....Going on 1100 days without a LF'ing hurricane in the US.....quite amazing! Does anyone know what the longest period the US has gone without a LF'ing hurricane? Would be an interesting stat! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted August 12, 2011 Share Posted August 12, 2011 Does anyone know what the longest period the US has gone without a LF'ing hurricane? Would be an interesting stat! Wiki! Hurricane Alicia was the first hurricane to hit the United States mainland since Hurricane Allen in August 1980. The time between the two storms totaled three years and eight days (1,103 days), the longest gap between hurricanes striking the United States during recorded hurricane history. The time was the longest the Texas coast has gone without a hurricane landfall since a nearly four year hiatus in hurricanes occurred between September 1882 and June 1886.[ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted August 12, 2011 Share Posted August 12, 2011 Does anyone know what the longest period the US has gone without a LF'ing hurricane? Would be an interesting stat! Official records go back to 1851. The USA did not have a known hurricane landfall from 1862-1864, which is three consecutive seasons-- so if we don't get a hurricane this year, we'll tie that record. There have been many instances of two seasons in a row with no 'cane landfall in the USA-- for example, 2000-2001, 1993-1994, 1981-1982, etc. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted August 12, 2011 Share Posted August 12, 2011 Wiki! Actually, Wikipedia is not correct. See above. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
toad strangler Posted August 12, 2011 Share Posted August 12, 2011 Official records go back to 1851. The USA did not have a known hurricane landfall from 1862-1864, which is three consecutive seasons-- so if we don't get a hurricane this year, we'll tie that record. There have been many instances of two seasons in a row with no 'cane landfall in the USA-- for example, 2000-2001, 1993-1994, 1981-1982, etc. really interesting and hopefully nobody confuses this with being "overdue" anywhere. Tying a streak that last happened during the US Civil War would certainly be notable and reason for discussion. But, I am not getting ahead of myself. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted August 12, 2011 Share Posted August 12, 2011 really interesting and hopefully nobody confuses this with being "overdue" anywhere. Tying a streak that last happened during the US Civil War would certainly be notable and reason for discussion. But, I am not getting ahead of myself. Thanks. The other record is how long the USA has gone without a major (Cat 3). The longest known streak is eight consecutive seasons: 1861-1868. If we don't get a major this year, we'll be up to six. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted August 12, 2011 Share Posted August 12, 2011 Actually, Wikipedia is not correct. See above. I think there is a red tag on this forum with edit priviledges at Wiki. I shoud probably PM him on this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted August 12, 2011 Author Share Posted August 12, 2011 I think there is a red tag on this forum with edit priviledges at Wiki. I shoud probably PM him on this. I got rid of it... I'm an admin at wiki, but anybody can edit if they want to. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted August 12, 2011 Share Posted August 12, 2011 I got rid of it... I'm an admin at wiki, but anybody can edit if they want to. Cool. And if you need to cite sources, here it is, straight from the best-track dudes: http://www.aoml.noaa.gov/hrd/hurdat/All_U.S._Hurricanes.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted August 12, 2011 Author Share Posted August 12, 2011 Cool. And if you need to cite sources, here it is, straight from the best-track dudes: http://www.aoml.noaa...Hurricanes.html Yeah, that's what I was looking at, thanks. I have a feeling the Alicia page in general might have some accuracy issues, so I'll take a little closer look sometime soon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted August 12, 2011 Share Posted August 12, 2011 Yeah, that's what I was looking at, thanks. I have a feeling the Alicia page in general might have some accuracy issues, so I'll take a little closer look sometime soon. I read the Wiki on Alicia a few years back which is why I "knew" to go straight there to answer the question. Oops. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted August 12, 2011 Share Posted August 12, 2011 Still don't like the ridging Over TX and LA another thing that makes an EC landfall difficult. Edit here says it all Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurriplane Posted August 12, 2011 Share Posted August 12, 2011 Another lemon? ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 200 AM EDT FRI AUG 12 2011 FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO... 1. A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CENTERED ABOUT 1000 MILES WEST OF THE SOUTHERN CAPE VERDE ISLANDS IS MOVING WESTWARD AT NEAR 15 MPH. THE ASSOCIATED SHOWER ACTIVITY REMAINS DISORGANIZED...AND SATELLITE IMAGERY SUGGESTS THE SYSTEM MAY CURRENTLY BE ENCOUNTERING A DRIER AND MORE STABLE AIR MASS. HOWEVER...ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...30 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. 2. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED ABOUT 275 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHERN CAPE VERDE ISLANDS IS PRODUCING A LARGE AREA OF CLOUDINESS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY BECOME MORE CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AT 15 TO 20 MPH. THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...40 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. 3. SHOWER ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE ABOUT 250 MILES WEST-NORTHWEST OF BERMUDA HAS BECOME A LITTLE BETTER ORGANIZED DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS. ADDITIONAL SLOW DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO BEFORE THIS DISTURBANCE MERGES WITH A FRONTAL SYSTEM. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES NORTHEASTWARD AT 15 TO 20 MPH. 4. AN AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER HAS FORMED IN ASSOCIATION WITH A BROAD LOW PRESSURE AREA ABOUT 800 MILES NORTHEAST OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS. SLOW DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS THE LOW MOVES WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT ABOUT 10 MPH. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. $$ FORECASTER BEVEN NNNN Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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