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TS Harvey


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Will there be recon before landfall?

ADT seems to like Harvey right now.

UW - CIMSS ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE ADT-Version 8.1.3 Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm ----- Current Analysis ----- Date : 20 AUG 2011 Time : 141500 UTC Lat : 16:46:39 N Lon : 87:27:41 W CI# /Pressure/ Vmax 4.2 / 985.0mb/ 69.8kt Final T# Adj T# Raw T# 4.2 3.9 3.9

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Will there be recon before landfall?

ADT seems to like Harvey right now.

UW - CIMSS ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE ADT-Version 8.1.3 Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm ----- Current Analysis ----- Date : 20 AUG 2011 Time : 141500 UTC Lat : 16:46:39 N Lon : 87:27:41 W CI# /Pressure/ Vmax 4.2 / 985.0mb/ 69.8kt Final T# Adj T# Raw T# 4.2 3.9 3.9

Recon has been flying for the last several hours. Thier obsevations indicate this is not at hurricane strength but just holding it's own at 50 knots.

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Without looking at any sounding data (just vis. sat.) there appears to be some modest NE shear in the NE quad. Along with the system drawing 3/4's of it's air from land sources, this will have a difficult time growing in size. However, with a central core in decent shape via micowave imagery, this still could get 5-10 mph increase before LF. I look for a quick, noticeable left turn of the SLP shortly after LF.

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NHC nailed this, fantastic intensity forecast while many cried cane, great job!

huh.gif the 11pm advisory had 65 knots at landfall.

However, I think they did a good job not raising the intensity further when there was a large burst of deep convection this morning. I agree with LEK assessment that there was a modest bit of northeasterly shear that kept the inner core from getting better defined before landfall.

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LANDFALL

BULLETIN

TROPICAL STORM HARVEY INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 7A

NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082011

100 PM CDT SAT AUG 20 2011

...CENTER OF HARVEY MAKES LANDFALL NEAR DANGRIGA TOWN BELIZE...

SUMMARY OF 100 PM CDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION

----------------------------------------------

LOCATION...17.0N 88.3W

ABOUT 35 MI...55 KM S OF BELIZE CITY

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H

PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...21 KM/H

MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...998 MB...29.47 INCHES

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You were just a copycat... I even nailed landfall time :P

No. I wasn't making a forecast-- I was simply relaying what I saw on radar.

Right on.

Good news; those piping hot ocean waters are a little less turned over.

Ah, yes-- another bit of silver lining to this.

And I guess I'm also cool that it didn't get super-hawt, because I would have been consumed in a fiery rage if I had to watch Iris II from the sidelines. That would've been too much.

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Interesting, it looks like Harvey might actually be able to scrape along the BOC for the next 12-18 hours. The NHC is not expecting much development from this, but at the very least it might keep it a depression for a while longer. The ECWMF has been all over this potential.

The LLC will reemerge over the water, but will not have enough time or room to significantly develop.

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...HARVEY EMERGES OVER THE SOUTHERN BAY OF CAMPECHE...TROPICAL STORM

WARNING ISSUED FOR A PORTION OF THE SOUTHERN COAST OF MEXICO...

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 21/2100Z 18.6N 93.8W 25 KT 30 MPH

12H 22/0600Z 19.0N 95.4W 35 KT 40 MPH

24H 22/1800Z 19.3N 97.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND

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...HARVEY EMERGES OVER THE SOUTHERN BAY OF CAMPECHE...TROPICAL STORM

WARNING ISSUED FOR A PORTION OF THE SOUTHERN COAST OF MEXICO...

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 21/2100Z 18.6N 93.8W 25 KT 30 MPH

12H 22/0600Z 19.0N 95.4W 35 KT 40 MPH

24H 22/1800Z 19.3N 97.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND

Yep, looks like it has another 12 hours of life and could become a tropical storm again... ECWMF deserves a pat on the back for highlighting this threat the last couple of days.

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Here is my map verification of TS Harvey... this was by far my best forecast of the year so far. While I was off 10 knots with regards to forecast wind intensity at landfall, I nearly nailed the track at landfall, and was well within the cone at all other time intervals. Now if only my Irene track could be as good weight_lift.gif

Overall A- for forecast track because i was a touch too slow after landfall, and a B for forecast intensity.

71o39c.png

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