gkrangers Posted August 20, 2011 Share Posted August 20, 2011 Will there be recon before landfall? ADT seems to like Harvey right now. UW - CIMSS ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE ADT-Version 8.1.3 Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm ----- Current Analysis ----- Date : 20 AUG 2011 Time : 141500 UTC Lat : 16:46:39 N Lon : 87:27:41 W CI# /Pressure/ Vmax 4.2 / 985.0mb/ 69.8kt Final T# Adj T# Raw T# 4.2 3.9 3.9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted August 20, 2011 Share Posted August 20, 2011 Will there be recon before landfall? ADT seems to like Harvey right now. UW - CIMSS ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE ADT-Version 8.1.3 Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm ----- Current Analysis ----- Date : 20 AUG 2011 Time : 141500 UTC Lat : 16:46:39 N Lon : 87:27:41 W CI# /Pressure/ Vmax 4.2 / 985.0mb/ 69.8kt Final T# Adj T# Raw T# 4.2 3.9 3.9 Recon has been flying for the last several hours. Thier obsevations indicate this is not at hurricane strength but just holding it's own at 50 knots. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectKing Posted August 20, 2011 Share Posted August 20, 2011 Without looking at any sounding data (just vis. sat.) there appears to be some modest NE shear in the NE quad. Along with the system drawing 3/4's of it's air from land sources, this will have a difficult time growing in size. However, with a central core in decent shape via micowave imagery, this still could get 5-10 mph increase before LF. I look for a quick, noticeable left turn of the SLP shortly after LF. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted August 20, 2011 Share Posted August 20, 2011 One obs had 63FL 61SFMR in moderate rain, but the rest of the obs had few 50 kts+ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted August 20, 2011 Share Posted August 20, 2011 My hat is off to the recon guys, this will be their fifth pass through the storm after traveling from Biloxi. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted August 20, 2011 Share Posted August 20, 2011 If only it had more time over water... /1st for 2011? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted August 20, 2011 Share Posted August 20, 2011 Last pass was the most impressive yet, 61kt SFMR obs with 6mm/hr rainfall rate. There have also been a couple of radar frames with a nearly closed eyewall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted August 20, 2011 Share Posted August 20, 2011 If only it had more time over water... /1st for 2011? You could argue Arlene was the 1st. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted August 20, 2011 Share Posted August 20, 2011 Based on radar, it looks like the center is very close to the shore near Dangriga. It did not pull together and, in fact, looks like it's lost some organization in the last couple of hours. The NHC was clever not to react to the deceiving IR imagery this morning. It sure had me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted August 20, 2011 Share Posted August 20, 2011 NHC nailed this, fantastic intensity forecast while many cried cane, great job! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted August 20, 2011 Share Posted August 20, 2011 NHC nailed this, fantastic intensity forecast while many cried cane, great job! the 11pm advisory had 65 knots at landfall. However, I think they did a good job not raising the intensity further when there was a large burst of deep convection this morning. I agree with LEK assessment that there was a modest bit of northeasterly shear that kept the inner core from getting better defined before landfall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
battlebrick Posted August 20, 2011 Share Posted August 20, 2011 LANDFALL BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM HARVEY INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 7A NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082011 100 PM CDT SAT AUG 20 2011 ...CENTER OF HARVEY MAKES LANDFALL NEAR DANGRIGA TOWN BELIZE... SUMMARY OF 100 PM CDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...17.0N 88.3W ABOUT 35 MI...55 KM S OF BELIZE CITY MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...21 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...998 MB...29.47 INCHES Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted August 20, 2011 Share Posted August 20, 2011 Based on radar, it looks like the center is very close to the shore near Dangriga. It did not pull together and, in fact, looks like it's lost some organization in the last couple of hours. Like I was sayin'... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted August 20, 2011 Share Posted August 20, 2011 Disappointing to not see it reach 65 kt, but I guess it's kind of cool that we're now up to a whopping 0/8 on hurricanes. And I'm glad Harvey has been used. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted August 20, 2011 Share Posted August 20, 2011 Like I was sayin'... Landfall will be around Dangriga in a couple of hours... it won't make it to a hurricane You were just a copycat... I even nailed landfall time Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
free_man Posted August 20, 2011 Share Posted August 20, 2011 Like I was sayin'... Right on. Good news; those piping hot ocean waters are a little less turned over. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted August 20, 2011 Share Posted August 20, 2011 You were just a copycat... I even nailed landfall time Looks like my forecast from yesterday will be 10 knots off on maximum intensity, nailed the landfall time, and .2 degrees too far north for landfall location. Overall, I'd say that's not too bad, a B forecast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted August 20, 2011 Share Posted August 20, 2011 You were just a copycat... I even nailed landfall time No. I wasn't making a forecast-- I was simply relaying what I saw on radar. Right on. Good news; those piping hot ocean waters are a little less turned over. Ah, yes-- another bit of silver lining to this. And I guess I'm also cool that it didn't get super-hawt, because I would have been consumed in a fiery rage if I had to watch Iris II from the sidelines. That would've been too much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted August 20, 2011 Share Posted August 20, 2011 Tornado spinning through a small village in Belize apparently? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted August 20, 2011 Share Posted August 20, 2011 Tornado spinning through a small village in Belize apparently? Wow, that is cool. It looked like a pretty decent one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted August 21, 2011 Share Posted August 21, 2011 Minor point but on the 03Z advisory, the NHC indicated the next advisory (with no intermediate advisory) would be at 09Z, but without any coastal warnings they did issue an intermediate advisory at 06Z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted August 21, 2011 Share Posted August 21, 2011 Interesting, it looks like Harvey might actually be able to scrape along the BOC for the next 12-18 hours. The NHC is not expecting much development from this, but at the very least it might keep it a depression for a while longer. The ECWMF has been all over this potential. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted August 21, 2011 Share Posted August 21, 2011 Interesting, it looks like Harvey might actually be able to scrape along the BOC for the next 12-18 hours. The NHC is not expecting much development from this, but at the very least it might keep it a depression for a while longer. The ECWMF has been all over this potential. The LLC will reemerge over the water, but will not have enough time or room to significantly develop. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan88 Posted August 21, 2011 Share Posted August 21, 2011 ...HARVEY EMERGES OVER THE SOUTHERN BAY OF CAMPECHE...TROPICAL STORM WARNING ISSUED FOR A PORTION OF THE SOUTHERN COAST OF MEXICO... FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 21/2100Z 18.6N 93.8W 25 KT 30 MPH 12H 22/0600Z 19.0N 95.4W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 22/1800Z 19.3N 97.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hm8 Posted August 21, 2011 Share Posted August 21, 2011 Forecasted to regain TS strength... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted August 21, 2011 Share Posted August 21, 2011 ...HARVEY EMERGES OVER THE SOUTHERN BAY OF CAMPECHE...TROPICAL STORM WARNING ISSUED FOR A PORTION OF THE SOUTHERN COAST OF MEXICO... FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 21/2100Z 18.6N 93.8W 25 KT 30 MPH 12H 22/0600Z 19.0N 95.4W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 22/1800Z 19.3N 97.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND Yep, looks like it has another 12 hours of life and could become a tropical storm again... ECWMF deserves a pat on the back for highlighting this threat the last couple of days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan88 Posted August 21, 2011 Share Posted August 21, 2011 With it getting it's feet wet, convection has really increased, increasing flooding concerns. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted August 21, 2011 Share Posted August 21, 2011 Even though you can never tell with Mexican radars, the radar signature from Alvarado isn't as impressive as the satellite signature would lead one to believe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted August 21, 2011 Share Posted August 21, 2011 Here is my map verification of TS Harvey... this was by far my best forecast of the year so far. While I was off 10 knots with regards to forecast wind intensity at landfall, I nearly nailed the track at landfall, and was well within the cone at all other time intervals. Now if only my Irene track could be as good Overall A- for forecast track because i was a touch too slow after landfall, and a B for forecast intensity. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted August 22, 2011 Share Posted August 22, 2011 58kt flight level winds, max thus far for the system, NW quad pretty sure you got the wrong thread Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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