phil882 Posted August 20, 2011 Share Posted August 20, 2011 Kinda reminds me of the crazy hot tower than went up with Don. This go around though, we don't have any dry air that could be advected into the core, and the shear is much lower. Recon is also reporting convective banding on radar. All of these factors should allow Harvey to continue intensifying as long as it remains offshore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CUmet Posted August 20, 2011 Share Posted August 20, 2011 some kind of temporary convective wind? The estimated surface wind in "D" is only 43 kt. Max flight level was 52 kts. Although it is possible, it is extremely rare to have surface winds higher than the flight level winds. It's rare, but when they do occur, it's usually with 1) very convectively active TCs, and 2) small TCs. Harvey meets both criteria. I wouldn't be surprised at all if the surface winds were higher than FL winds in this case. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted August 20, 2011 Share Posted August 20, 2011 It's rare, but when they do occur, it's usually with 1) very convectively active TCs, and 2) small TCs. Harvey meets both criteria. I wouldn't be surprised at all if the surface winds were higher than FL winds in this case. why doesn't the estimate surface wind in the text match up with the 61 kt wind in the remark? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted August 20, 2011 Share Posted August 20, 2011 The hot tower looks like it's displaced a decent bit SE from the center. Definitely a sign of some intensification, but nothing crazy happening I don't think. Might pull the center closer to the coast too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CUmet Posted August 20, 2011 Share Posted August 20, 2011 why doesn't the estimate surface wind in the text match up with the 61 kt wind in the remark? I don't know. I'm not necessarily endorsing the 61 kt SFMR wind as legitimate, but overall the idea that the surface winds could be as strong or stronger than the FL winds in Harvey is plausible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan88 Posted August 20, 2011 Share Posted August 20, 2011 700mb center was fixed roughly at (minute format) 1608N, 8500W. 53kt at 700mb, very close to the center. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted August 20, 2011 Share Posted August 20, 2011 The hot tower looks like it's displaced a decent bit SE from the center. Definitely a sign of some intensification, but nothing crazy happening. Might pull the center closer to the coast too not really. it's fairly close if you look at MW and other data. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted August 20, 2011 Share Posted August 20, 2011 The hot tower looks like it's displaced a decent bit SE from the center. Definitely a sign of some intensification, but nothing crazy happening I don't think. Might pull the center closer to the coast too Latest fix was 16.1N 84.7W (or 85W in the latest, latest fix)... that put's it on the center of the coldest convection. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted August 20, 2011 Share Posted August 20, 2011 latest SSMIS pass Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted August 20, 2011 Share Posted August 20, 2011 Latest fix was 16.1N 84.7W (or 85W in the latest, latest fix)... that put's it on the center of the coldest convection. sweet. I was just looking at the ADT position (16.6N 85.3W). Guess I should probably look at recon data before posting again lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted August 20, 2011 Share Posted August 20, 2011 latest SSMIS pass Ok, it's going to town...it just needs to gain a bit of latitude. It's micro.... someone in Cali might be doing some second thoughts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan88 Posted August 20, 2011 Share Posted August 20, 2011 000 URNT12 KNHC 200156 VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL082011 A. 20/01:37:50Z B. 16 deg 09 min N 084 deg 59 min W C. 700 mb 3077 m D. 39 kt E. 264 deg 24 nm F. 013 deg 31 kt G. 266 deg 31 nm H. 997 mb I. 7 C / 3064 m J. 14 C / 3056 m K. NA / NA L. NA M. NA N. 12345 / 7 O. 0.02 / 1 nm P. AF308 0408A HARVEY OB 15 MAX OUTBOUND AND MAX FL WIND 53 KT NE QUAD 01:39:00Z GOOD SPIRAL BAND; NEARLY PINPOINTED FL CNTR MAX SFC WIND OUTBOUND 46 KTS, NE QUAD, 01:39:30Z FQT LTG IN CONVECTION NEAR FL CNTR Worth pointing out that the 997mb was with 32kt surface winds, so pressure should be around 994-995 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gkrangers Posted August 20, 2011 Share Posted August 20, 2011 latest SSMIS pass Hawt. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gkrangers Posted August 20, 2011 Share Posted August 20, 2011 000 URNT12 KNHC 200156 VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL082011 A. 20/01:37:50Z B. 16 deg 09 min N 084 deg 59 min W C. 700 mb 3077 m D. 39 kt E. 264 deg 24 nm F. 013 deg 31 kt G. 266 deg 31 nm H. 997 mb I. 7 C / 3064 m J. 14 C / 3056 m K. NA / NA L. NA M. NA N. 12345 / 7 O. 0.02 / 1 nm P. AF308 0408A HARVEY OB 15 MAX OUTBOUND AND MAX FL WIND 53 KT NE QUAD 01:39:00Z GOOD SPIRAL BAND; NEARLY PINPOINTED FL CNTR MAX SFC WIND OUTBOUND 46 KTS, NE QUAD, 01:39:30Z FQT LTG IN CONVECTION NEAR FL CNTR Worth pointing out that the 997mb was with 32kt surface winds, so pressure should be around 994-995 Temp gradient is excellent as well, though at 14C you can see this is still a developing core. Bombs away if it can stay off the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted August 20, 2011 Share Posted August 20, 2011 it looks pretty great now.. might not need much more time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted August 20, 2011 Share Posted August 20, 2011 latest SSMIS pass Oh wow nice banding for sure... In other news the center is ever so slightly moving further north of W over the last three passes. Even if it continues due west, its next landfall point will be somewhere on Belize. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted August 20, 2011 Share Posted August 20, 2011 harvey got dissed so much by josh it'll end up being an uber microcane.. karma Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted August 20, 2011 Share Posted August 20, 2011 Ok, it's going to town...it just needs to gain a bit of latitude. It's micro.... someone in Cali might be doing some second thoughts. harvey got dissed so much by josh it'll end up being an uber microcane.. karma Y'all just better hush up if ya know what's good for ya. Just sayin'. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted August 20, 2011 Share Posted August 20, 2011 This is from the last dropsonde they sent out.... I think the 48 knot surface wind would support raising the intensity to 50 knots at 11pm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cdawgga1 Posted August 20, 2011 Share Posted August 20, 2011 Outer bands are beginning to show up on Belize radar. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CUmet Posted August 20, 2011 Share Posted August 20, 2011 This is from the last dropsonde they sent out.... I think the 48 knot surface wind would support raising the intensity to 50 knots at 11pm. The splash location of this dropsonde was 12 km from the VDM center. The surface winds *could* actually be higher because the FL RMW has been around 8-10 km for the last couple passes, and the surface RMW should be a little smaller than that. It's also important to note that the 997 mb reading on the last vortex message was based on a dropsonde that had 32 kt winds at the surface, so the pressure is probably a few mb lower. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan88 Posted August 20, 2011 Share Posted August 20, 2011 50kt at 11pm, forecast for a 65kt landfall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted August 20, 2011 Share Posted August 20, 2011 Seems to be disagreement between NHC and the Belize government. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cdawgga1 Posted August 20, 2011 Share Posted August 20, 2011 50kt at 11pm, forecast for a 65kt landfall. So we may get our first hurricane just as it hits Belize according to NHC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cdawgga1 Posted August 20, 2011 Share Posted August 20, 2011 ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 994 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT. 50 KT....... 15NE 0SE 0SW 15NW. 34 KT....... 35NE 20SE 0SW 35NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 45NE 15SE 15SW 45NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.2N 85.2W AT 20/0300Z AT 20/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.1N 84.7W FORECAST VALID 20/1200Z 16.4N 86.6W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 50NE 25SE 25SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 21/0000Z 16.8N 88.5W...INLAND MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 0SE 0SW 15NW. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT... 70NE 40SE 40SW 70NW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted August 20, 2011 Share Posted August 20, 2011 Love these surprise little storms. If I were to look at it 12 hours ago I wouldda thought NEXXTTTT and now were looking at the best looking storm of the season so far and possibly our first hurricane. Niceee Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
metalicwx366 Posted August 20, 2011 Share Posted August 20, 2011 Minimal TS scraping the N coast of HN for two days. The end. LMAO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
battlebrick Posted August 20, 2011 Share Posted August 20, 2011 just needs the NW quadrant for a closed eyewall. holy crap. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted August 20, 2011 Share Posted August 20, 2011 The IR presentation has been uneven tonight-- however, it seems to be coiling nice and tight again and could be on the upswing. Those very cold cloud tops (greys) are apparently around the center. Very curious to hear what they say in the 4 am CDT package: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted August 20, 2011 Share Posted August 20, 2011 By the way, this is an exceedingly small system: the 34-kt radius is 35 nmi and the 50-kt radius is 15 nmi. A true micro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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