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TS Harvey


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Kinda reminds me of the crazy hot tower than went up with Don. This go around though, we don't have any dry air that could be advected into the core, and the shear is much lower. Recon is also reporting convective banding on radar. All of these factors should allow Harvey to continue intensifying as long as it remains offshore.

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some kind of temporary convective wind? The estimated surface wind in "D" is only 43 kt. Max flight level was 52 kts. Although it is possible, it is extremely rare to have surface winds higher than the flight level winds.

It's rare, but when they do occur, it's usually with 1) very convectively active TCs, and 2) small TCs. Harvey meets both criteria. I wouldn't be surprised at all if the surface winds were higher than FL winds in this case.

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It's rare, but when they do occur, it's usually with 1) very convectively active TCs, and 2) small TCs. Harvey meets both criteria. I wouldn't be surprised at all if the surface winds were higher than FL winds in this case.

why doesn't the estimate surface wind in the text match up with the 61 kt wind in the remark?

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why doesn't the estimate surface wind in the text match up with the 61 kt wind in the remark?

I don't know. I'm not necessarily endorsing the 61 kt SFMR wind as legitimate, but overall the idea that the surface winds could be as strong or stronger than the FL winds in Harvey is plausible.

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The hot tower looks like it's displaced a decent bit SE from the center. Definitely a sign of some intensification, but nothing crazy happening I don't think. Might pull the center closer to the coast too

Latest fix was 16.1N 84.7W (or 85W in the latest, latest fix)... that put's it on the center of the coldest convection.

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Latest fix was 16.1N 84.7W (or 85W in the latest, latest fix)... that put's it on the center of the coldest convection.

sweet. I was just looking at the ADT position (16.6N 85.3W). Guess I should probably look at recon data before posting again lol

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000

URNT12 KNHC 200156

VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL082011

A. 20/01:37:50Z

B. 16 deg 09 min N

084 deg 59 min W

C. 700 mb 3077 m

D. 39 kt

E. 264 deg 24 nm

F. 013 deg 31 kt

G. 266 deg 31 nm

H. 997 mb

I. 7 C / 3064 m

J. 14 C / 3056 m

K. NA / NA

L. NA

M. NA

N. 12345 / 7

O. 0.02 / 1 nm

P. AF308 0408A HARVEY OB 15

MAX OUTBOUND AND MAX FL WIND 53 KT NE QUAD 01:39:00Z

GOOD SPIRAL BAND; NEARLY PINPOINTED FL CNTR

MAX SFC WIND OUTBOUND 46 KTS, NE QUAD, 01:39:30Z

FQT LTG IN CONVECTION NEAR FL CNTR

Worth pointing out that the 997mb was with 32kt surface winds, so pressure should be around 994-995

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000

URNT12 KNHC 200156

VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL082011

A. 20/01:37:50Z

B. 16 deg 09 min N

084 deg 59 min W

C. 700 mb 3077 m

D. 39 kt

E. 264 deg 24 nm

F. 013 deg 31 kt

G. 266 deg 31 nm

H. 997 mb

I. 7 C / 3064 m

J. 14 C / 3056 m

K. NA / NA

L. NA

M. NA

N. 12345 / 7

O. 0.02 / 1 nm

P. AF308 0408A HARVEY OB 15

MAX OUTBOUND AND MAX FL WIND 53 KT NE QUAD 01:39:00Z

GOOD SPIRAL BAND; NEARLY PINPOINTED FL CNTR

MAX SFC WIND OUTBOUND 46 KTS, NE QUAD, 01:39:30Z

FQT LTG IN CONVECTION NEAR FL CNTR

Worth pointing out that the 997mb was with 32kt surface winds, so pressure should be around 994-995

Temp gradient is excellent as well, though at 14C you can see this is still a developing core. Bombs away if it can stay off the coast.

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zlu7hd.png

This is from the last dropsonde they sent out.... I think the 48 knot surface wind would support raising the intensity to 50 knots at 11pm.

The splash location of this dropsonde was 12 km from the VDM center. The surface winds *could* actually be higher because the FL RMW has been around 8-10 km for the last couple passes, and the surface RMW should be a little smaller than that.

It's also important to note that the 997 mb reading on the last vortex message was based on a dropsonde that had 32 kt winds at the surface, so the pressure is probably a few mb lower.

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ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 994 MB

MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT.

50 KT....... 15NE 0SE 0SW 15NW.

34 KT....... 35NE 20SE 0SW 35NW.

12 FT SEAS.. 45NE 15SE 15SW 45NW.

WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL

MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.2N 85.2W AT 20/0300Z

AT 20/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.1N 84.7W

FORECAST VALID 20/1200Z 16.4N 86.6W

MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.

50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW.

34 KT... 50NE 25SE 25SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/0000Z 16.8N 88.5W...INLAND

MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.

64 KT... 15NE 0SE 0SW 15NW.

50 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 30NW.

34 KT... 70NE 40SE 40SW 70NW.

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