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TS Harvey


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Here's a 3-member ensemble, all valid at 14/12Z. The first image shows the result of excluding cloud ice processes.

[35643:kessler1.png]

[35644:wsm6.png]

[35645:bmj.png]

Looks reasonable. What's the difference between members 2 and 3? Also a physics tweak?

And what do you initialize off of, GFS?

Edit to add: In quoting your figures, I see that they're called wsm6 and bmj, so I see that those are microphysics tweaks ;)

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pretty decent for something that far east

Yeah, usually they sort of shrivel up and dry out as they splash into the ocean-- this one seemed to flare up right away, which I thought was interesting.

I chatted with Adam on the phone just now about this and 92L. He's going to post some thoughts early in the morning. Anxious to see where he feels this is going after he's had a chance to really sit down and look at things.

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Should be interesting to see how it battles the SAL over the coming days...the deepest reds are moving from NE to SW into position between 92L and 93L, despite the best efforts of 92L to provide a sacrificial cleansing. Hopefully it continues to stay low and its pouch stays intact.

post-22-0-53382500-1313032285.jpg

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Should be interesting to see how it battles the SAL over the coming days...the deepest reds are moving from NE to SW into position between 92L and 93L, despite the best efforts of 92L to provide a sacrificial cleansing. Hopefully it continues to stay low and its pouch stays intact.

92L appears to be assisting 93L in terms of moisture in two ways right now. First, and most obviously, 92L is moistening the atmosphere ahead of 93L through both convective and advective processes, and much of whatever SAL air 92L does absorb should fall out with precipitation. Secondly, cyclonically-induced southerly flow to the east of 92L is helping to advect the SAL air away from being ingested by 93L in the traditionally highly vulnerable northwest quadrant of the pouch.

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szmSC.jpg

93L is going to be mucked up by the SAL for a while. You can really see how little moisture there is when you look at the 700mb RH fields, especially in the ECMWF. But, on the bright side, if we can get the SAL to precipitate out by the time this thing gets to the islands, there's nothing else really precluding it from developing in 5-6 days. At that point, it's all about timing troughs to see if whatever forms can get to the East Coast. Because it is going to take longer for this to develop, it has a much better chance than 92L to get to the US.

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93L is going to be mucked up by the SAL for a while. You can really see how little moisture there is when you look at the 700mb RH fields, especially in the ECMWF. But, on the bright side, if we can get the SAL to precipitate out by the time this thing gets to the islands, there's nothing else really precluding it from developing in 5-6 days. At that point, it's all about timing troughs to see if whatever forms can get to the East Coast. Because it is going to take longer for this to develop, it has a much better chance than 92L to get to the US.

Can this one slip underneath and be a MX deal, or is this a USA-or-fish deal?

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I know I am going way out here, but if this thing ever does develop, I'm not buying the EC trough solutions on D10 that would fish this thing out to sea. It could still fish on its own, but I don't think the synoptic pattern will scream fish.

I noticed the ensembles (well at least euro ensembles) try to show a building ridge to its north around d10. Maybe if this thing is big enough and sniffs the westerlies it could recurve, but yeah you may be onto something.

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One thing I am encouraged about is this will not be a quick developing cyclone. Met Tech ran the guidance yesterday and that continues to be backed up by other models. RECON may not find anything but a td, if that, and that is if they even fly on Saturday evening...

post-32-0-42789400-1313065977.png

post-32-0-19102300-1313066352.png

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My early hunch is that this needs to get into the Caribbean to ever be a U.S. threat, and the faster it develops, the less likely that is. Ridge should be centered in the means in the south-central U.S. which I think leaves enough weakness near the East Coast / Southeast to keep that part of the U.S. protected. Obviously this comes with a fair amount of uncertainty though, as I can see the southern ridge trying to poke more north and east down the road... Just not sure it would be in time to allow this one to get to the states.

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Interesting that the GFS operational is farther north than the ensembles. The ensemble mean is around the Dominican Republic at the extended range. The 0Z run of the experimental FIM model has it over Cuba. Of course, we're talking 240 hours, so fantasy land, but I don't think recurve is cast in stone by any means, although still more likely than not given climatology.

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Come on, man. You can do better than posting fantasyland maps from the GFS.

I am not saying it's a sure thing, and I realize that it's the fantasy area of the GFS, but the NAO index is forecast to rise during that time frame, and the PNA is supposed to fall also which would suggest more of a ridge and a increased risk along the east coast.

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/pna/new.nao_index_ensm.html

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/pna/new.pna_index_ensm.html

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I am not saying it's a sure thing, and I realize that it's the fantasy area of the GFS, but the NAO index is forecast to rise during that time frame, and the PNA is supposed to fall also which would suggest more of a ridge and a increased risk along the east coast.

http://www.cpc.ncep....index_ensm.html

http://www.cpc.ncep....index_ensm.html

Actually the NAO is forecast to hit a peak in about 7 days and then start falling again, so it would not be on the rise in the time frame you posted about anyway. Now, maybe the NAO forecasts are wrong, but that's a different issue.

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