k*** Posted August 11, 2011 Share Posted August 11, 2011 i'm fine with it staying weak until waaaayy late. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
icebreaker5221 Posted August 11, 2011 Share Posted August 11, 2011 Where do you find the tropical models for 93L? The Colorado State page I have bookmarked only shows 92L.... Weather underground This is better: http://moe.met.fsu.edu/~acevans/models/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
icebreaker5221 Posted August 11, 2011 Share Posted August 11, 2011 Here's a 3-member ensemble, all valid at 14/12Z. The first image shows the result of excluding cloud ice processes. [35643:kessler1.png] [35644:wsm6.png] [35645:bmj.png] Looks reasonable. What's the difference between members 2 and 3? Also a physics tweak? And what do you initialize off of, GFS? Edit to add: In quoting your figures, I see that they're called wsm6 and bmj, so I see that those are microphysics tweaks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
toad strangler Posted August 11, 2011 Share Posted August 11, 2011 I'm really like that straight-W vibe. Niceynice. E-gads, 93L is still shaking off zebras, lions, and giraffes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted August 11, 2011 Share Posted August 11, 2011 E-gads, 93L is still shaking off zebras, lions, and giraffes Ha ha, I guess it is kind of fresh off the continent. But it's been so slow, I guess we can't help looking to extreme-E reaches of the basin and beyond. P.S. I'm going to need to remember that for future use. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gump Posted August 11, 2011 Share Posted August 11, 2011 Where do you find the tropical models for 93L? The Colorado State page I have bookmarked only shows 92L.... Another one if interested. http://www.sfwmd.gov/portal/page/portal/xweb%20weather/hurricane%20model%20plots Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thewxmann Posted August 11, 2011 Share Posted August 11, 2011 Where do you find the tropical models for 93L? The Colorado State page I have bookmarked only shows 92L.... Did you try "Frame 2"? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Poimen Posted August 11, 2011 Share Posted August 11, 2011 Where do you find the tropical models for 93L? The Colorado State page I have bookmarked only shows 92L.... Tropical Models Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
toad strangler Posted August 11, 2011 Share Posted August 11, 2011 Ha ha, I guess it is kind of fresh off the continent. But it's been so slow, I guess we can't help looking to extreme-E reaches of the basin and beyond. P.S. I'm going to need to remember that for future use. and Cape Verde season is at hand Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
k*** Posted August 11, 2011 Share Posted August 11, 2011 pretty decent for something that far east Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted August 11, 2011 Share Posted August 11, 2011 pretty decent for something that far east Yeah, usually they sort of shrivel up and dry out as they splash into the ocean-- this one seemed to flare up right away, which I thought was interesting. I chatted with Adam on the phone just now about this and 92L. He's going to post some thoughts early in the morning. Anxious to see where he feels this is going after he's had a chance to really sit down and look at things. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
k*** Posted August 11, 2011 Share Posted August 11, 2011 Should be interesting to see how it battles the SAL over the coming days...the deepest reds are moving from NE to SW into position between 92L and 93L, despite the best efforts of 92L to provide a sacrificial cleansing. Hopefully it continues to stay low and its pouch stays intact. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
icebreaker5221 Posted August 11, 2011 Share Posted August 11, 2011 Should be interesting to see how it battles the SAL over the coming days...the deepest reds are moving from NE to SW into position between 92L and 93L, despite the best efforts of 92L to provide a sacrificial cleansing. Hopefully it continues to stay low and its pouch stays intact. 92L appears to be assisting 93L in terms of moisture in two ways right now. First, and most obviously, 92L is moistening the atmosphere ahead of 93L through both convective and advective processes, and much of whatever SAL air 92L does absorb should fall out with precipitation. Secondly, cyclonically-induced southerly flow to the east of 92L is helping to advect the SAL air away from being ingested by 93L in the traditionally highly vulnerable northwest quadrant of the pouch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted August 11, 2011 Share Posted August 11, 2011 93L is going to be mucked up by the SAL for a while. You can really see how little moisture there is when you look at the 700mb RH fields, especially in the ECMWF. But, on the bright side, if we can get the SAL to precipitate out by the time this thing gets to the islands, there's nothing else really precluding it from developing in 5-6 days. At that point, it's all about timing troughs to see if whatever forms can get to the East Coast. Because it is going to take longer for this to develop, it has a much better chance than 92L to get to the US. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted August 11, 2011 Share Posted August 11, 2011 93L is going to be mucked up by the SAL for a while. You can really see how little moisture there is when you look at the 700mb RH fields, especially in the ECMWF. But, on the bright side, if we can get the SAL to precipitate out by the time this thing gets to the islands, there's nothing else really precluding it from developing in 5-6 days. At that point, it's all about timing troughs to see if whatever forms can get to the East Coast. Because it is going to take longer for this to develop, it has a much better chance than 92L to get to the US. Can this one slip underneath and be a MX deal, or is this a USA-or-fish deal? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted August 11, 2011 Share Posted August 11, 2011 Can this one slip underneath and be a MX deal, or is this a USA-or-fish deal? I think the latter, at least for now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted August 11, 2011 Share Posted August 11, 2011 I think the latter, at least for now Oh, hey, rumor had it you would do deep thinking on 92L and 93L and give us a full run down this morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted August 11, 2011 Share Posted August 11, 2011 Oh, hey, rumor had it you would do deep thinking on 92L and 93L and give us a full run down this morning. I just laid out track and intensity forecasts for both. What else are you looking for? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted August 11, 2011 Share Posted August 11, 2011 I just laid out track and intensity forecasts for both. What else are you looking for? I must have missed it somehow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cypress Posted August 11, 2011 Share Posted August 11, 2011 Atlantic Marine Forecast graphics show a Low in the east Atlantic this morning they apparently forgot to add the area off of FL in their earlier version - oops ! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted August 11, 2011 Share Posted August 11, 2011 I know I am going way out here, but if this thing ever does develop, I'm not buying the EC trough solutions on D10 that would fish this thing out to sea. It could still fish on its own, but I don't think the synoptic pattern will scream fish. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 11, 2011 Share Posted August 11, 2011 I know I am going way out here, but if this thing ever does develop, I'm not buying the EC trough solutions on D10 that would fish this thing out to sea. It could still fish on its own, but I don't think the synoptic pattern will scream fish. I noticed the ensembles (well at least euro ensembles) try to show a building ridge to its north around d10. Maybe if this thing is big enough and sniffs the westerlies it could recurve, but yeah you may be onto something. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted August 11, 2011 Share Posted August 11, 2011 One thing I am encouraged about is this will not be a quick developing cyclone. Met Tech ran the guidance yesterday and that continues to be backed up by other models. RECON may not find anything but a td, if that, and that is if they even fly on Saturday evening... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
VAwxman Posted August 11, 2011 Share Posted August 11, 2011 My early hunch is that this needs to get into the Caribbean to ever be a U.S. threat, and the faster it develops, the less likely that is. Ridge should be centered in the means in the south-central U.S. which I think leaves enough weakness near the East Coast / Southeast to keep that part of the U.S. protected. Obviously this comes with a fair amount of uncertainty though, as I can see the southern ridge trying to poke more north and east down the road... Just not sure it would be in time to allow this one to get to the states. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MarkSC Posted August 11, 2011 Share Posted August 11, 2011 Interesting that the GFS operational is farther north than the ensembles. The ensemble mean is around the Dominican Republic at the extended range. The 0Z run of the experimental FIM model has it over Cuba. Of course, we're talking 240 hours, so fantasy land, but I don't think recurve is cast in stone by any means, although still more likely than not given climatology. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Metsfan Posted August 11, 2011 Share Posted August 11, 2011 The GFS is could be hinting at a tropical/extratropical storm impacting the US. 0Z GFS http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/gfs/00/images/gfs_slp_300l.gif 06 GFS http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/gfs/06/images/gfs_slp_276l.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted August 11, 2011 Share Posted August 11, 2011 The GFS is could be hinting at a tropical/extratropical storm impacting the US. Come on, man. You can do better than posting fantasyland maps from the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Metsfan Posted August 11, 2011 Share Posted August 11, 2011 Come on, man. You can do better than posting fantasyland maps from the GFS. I am not saying it's a sure thing, and I realize that it's the fantasy area of the GFS, but the NAO index is forecast to rise during that time frame, and the PNA is supposed to fall also which would suggest more of a ridge and a increased risk along the east coast. http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/pna/new.nao_index_ensm.html http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/pna/new.pna_index_ensm.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
VAwxman Posted August 11, 2011 Share Posted August 11, 2011 I am not saying it's a sure thing, and I realize that it's the fantasy area of the GFS, but the NAO index is forecast to rise during that time frame, and the PNA is supposed to fall also which would suggest more of a ridge and a increased risk along the east coast. http://www.cpc.ncep....index_ensm.html http://www.cpc.ncep....index_ensm.html Actually the NAO is forecast to hit a peak in about 7 days and then start falling again, so it would not be on the rise in the time frame you posted about anyway. Now, maybe the NAO forecasts are wrong, but that's a different issue. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted August 11, 2011 Share Posted August 11, 2011 Come on, man. You can do better than posting fantasyland maps from the GFS. I think that's 93L. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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