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TS Harvey


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Center fix at 16.1N 84.6W... essentially due westward motion since this morning. looks like there are some uncontaminated SFMR values of around 40 knots though so it seems that the 40 knot current intensity is justified.

A great example of when going conservative on the advisory is the right move... Satellite was very deceiving earlier this afternoon. There is still time for this to strengthen, especially since it seems like its actually slowed down a little bit. However, it will need to get a little bit further away from land.

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Up to 51 knots on the SFMR....

Little flight level wind support though.

The 51 KT was flagged.

Yup, we definitely got a bit excited with the satellite presentation-- again... but strengthening of course is still certainly an option if (and it should be able to at some point) it can get away from the coastline.

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The 51 KT was flagged.

Yup, we definitely got a bit excited with the satellite presentation-- again... but strengthening of course is still certainly an option if (and it should be able to at some point) it can get away from the coastline.

Yep... the storm would have to move south of west in order to make an early landfall. It won't take much latitude to get most of the small circulation free from coastal effects.

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Pressure is down.

000

URNT12 KNHC 192343

VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL082011

A. 19/23:27:10Z

B. 16 deg 05 min N

084 deg 36 min W

C. 850 mb 1424 m

D. 31 kt

E. 304 deg 34 nm

F. 054 deg 30 kt

G. 328 deg 71 nm

H. 999 mb

I. 17 C / 1529 m

J. 20 C / 1526 m

K. NA / NA

L. NA

M. NA

N. 1345 / 08

O. 0.02 / 1 nm

P. AF308 0408A HARVEY OB 07

MAX OUTBOUND AND MAX FL WIND 34 KT E QUAD 23:28:00Z

MAX SFC WND OUTBOUND 51 KTS, 093/02 NM FM FL CNTR, E QUAD, 23:27:40Z

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Think they missed the 850mb center with the pass, going to the NW of it (went NE quad to NW quad to SW quad), however stronger flight level winds in the NE quad, up to 47kt. Switch to west winds still occurred around 16.1N

Edit, flight level winds up to 52kt on the north side of the center,

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998mb was with 22kt at the surface, so probably a tad lower.

000

URNT12 KNHC 200102

VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL082011

A. 20/00:40:10Z

B. 16 deg 06 min N

084 deg 46 min W

C. 850 mb 1413 m

D. 43 kt

E. 321 deg 6 nm

F. 100 deg 46 kt

G. 003 deg 11 nm

H. 998 mb

I. 16 C / 1528 m

J. 20 C / 1527 m

K. NA / NA

L. NA

M. NA

N. 12345 / 08

O. 0.02 / 1 nm

P. AF308 0408A HARVEY OB 11

MAX OUTBOUND AND MAX FL WIND 52 KT NW QUAD 00:41:40Z

MAX SFC WND OUTBOUND 61 KTS, 345/03 FM FL CNTR, NW QUAD, 00:41:10Z

GOOD BANDING WEST SIDE APPROX 30 NM FM FL CNTR

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Moving very slowly, but gaining some latitude, although with the slow translation speed, any gain is small. Recon is out, but there were some pretty interesting obs just north of the center... but everything was flagged, looks like there were some problems again with the instruments... anyway, it's clearly strengthening.

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Product: Air Force Vortex Message (URNT12 KNHC)
Transmitted: 20th day of the month at 01:02Z
Aircraft: Air Force Aircraft (Last 3 digits of the tail number are 308)
Storm Number & Year: 08L in 2011
Storm Name: Harvey (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 4
Observation Number: 11
A. Time of Center Fix: 20th day of the month at 0:40:10Z
B. Center Fix Coordinates: 16°06'N 84°46'W (16.1N 84.7667W)
B. Center Fix Location: 246 miles (396 km) to the ESE (113°) from Belize City, Belize.
C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: 1,413m (4,636ft) at 850mb
D. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind: 43kts (~ 49.5mph)
E. Location of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind: 6 nautical miles (7 statute miles) to the NW (321°) of center fix
F. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 100° at 46kts (From the E at ~ 52.9mph)
G. Location of Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 11 nautical miles (13 statute miles) to the N (3°) of center fix
H. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 998mb (29.47 inHg)
I. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 16°C (61°F) at a pressure alt. of 1,528m (5,013ft)
J. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 20°C (68°F) at a pressure alt. of 1,527m (5,010ft)
K. Dewpoint Temp & Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not Available
L. Eye Character: Not Available
M. Eye Shape: Not Available
N. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Radar, Wind, Pressure and Temperature
N. Fix Levels (sfc and flt lvl centers are within 5nm of each other): Surface and 850mb
O. Navigation Fix Accuracy: 0.02 nautical miles
O. Meteorological Accuracy: 1 nautical mile
Remarks Section - Remarks That Were Decoded...
Maximum Wind Outbound: 52kts (~ 59.8mph) in the northwest quadrant at 0:41:40Z
Maximum Flight Level Wind: 52kts (~ 59.8mph) in the northwest quadrant at 0:41:40Z
Maximum Surface (likely estimated by SFMR) Wind Outbound: 61kts (~ 70.2mph) in the quadrant at 3:45
Remarks Section - Additional Remarks...
[b]MAX SFC WND OUTBOUND 61 KTS, 345/03 FM FL CNTR, NW QUAD, 00:41:10Z
GOOD BANDING WEST SIDE APPROX 30 NM FM FL CNTR[/b]

Looks like the 61kts SFMR was valid... but not sure if representative (the code tag is broken again).

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some kind of temporary convective wind? The estimated surface wind in "D" is only 43 kt. Max flight level was 52 kts. Although it is possible, it is extremely rare to have surface winds higher than the flight level winds.

Agreed. That's why I said valid but probably not representative, and also at the time there was a huge tower blooming...but it's in an upward trend, it seems

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some kind of temporary convective wind? The estimated surface wind in "D" is only 43 kt. Max flight level was 52 kts. Although it is possible, it is extremely rare to have surface winds higher than the flight level winds.

Set of observations with the 61kt surface estimate, seems going off this, it was just outside of very heavy convection (43 mm/hr), however the observation itself was not in particularly heavy convection

004030 1607N 08446W 8454 01450 //// +148 //// 125030 040 049 043 05

004100 1609N 08447W 8409 01508 //// +193 //// 096044 046 061 011 05

004130 1610N 08448W 8428 01497 //// +197 //// 086050 052 054 006 05

004200 1611N 08450W 8430 01511 //// +192 //// 086048 049 044 000 05

004230 1613N 08451W 8429 01513 //// +187 //// 080046 047 046 000 05

004300 1614N 08453W 8430 01518 //// +181 //// 086044 046 042 001 05

004330 1615N 08454W 8427 01525 //// +185 //// 085043 043 042 001 05

004400 1616N 08455W 8431 01525 //// +189 //// 082046 047 040 000 05

004430 1618N 08457W 8421 01537 //// +185 //// 084048 049 039 000 05

004500 1619N 08458W 8434 01525 //// +181 //// 087048 049 033 000 05

004530 1620N 08500W 8425 01539 //// +183 //// 089044 045 033 001 05

004600 1622N 08501W 8435 01533 //// +186 //// 090040 042 031 001 05

004630 1623N 08502W 8425 01542 //// +183 //// 091038 039 032 001 01

004700 1624N 08504W 8294 01675 //// +171 //// 086038 040 /// /// 05

004730 1626N 08505W 8032 01951 //// +158 //// 080041 042 /// /// 05

004800 1627N 08506W 7765 02242 //// +144 //// 075037 038 /// /// 05

004830 1628N 08507W 7495 02527 //// +128 //// 073035 036 /// /// 05

004900 1630N 08508W 7214 02851 //// +108 //// 069034 034 /// /// 05

004930 1631N 08510W 6984 03128 //// +090 //// 067034 034 027 002 05

005000 1633N 08511W 6969 03151 //// +093 //// 066034 035 029 002 05

Otherwise though, getting another pass soon, though from 700mb this time. Guess they want to see how well the system is stacked.

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