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TS Harvey


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Good call-- you correctly predicted the NHC's conservative take.

The Discussion mentions possible RI, but the probability of hurricane status (13%) seems way low to me.

Yeah I think the 40% from SHIPS is much more realistic than the NHC's 13% (40+25=cane!)

Also, now that we've hit the 8th named storm of the season, I'm glad to have a storm that finally....looks like a real tropical cyclone.

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OK, no more fighting. :) The point has been made-- let's get back to the cyclone.

I really do think it will become a 'cane. The symmetry, the outflow, the expanding outer bands, that red dot near the center on IR imagery-- it just looks good.

Unfortunately I have an ancient slow computer sometimes. I will endeavor not to clog up the thread. Harvey in the meantime rolls on getting stronger. IMO I think it may just make it to hurricane status just in time before landfall. CDO is getting much better every minute. Looking like a real TC now. I think we are going to be seeing really good TC's from here on out.

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Center is going to be very close to land, farther south than the advisory position, recon is down to 16.25N and winds are still 20 degrees.

The winds are also fairly light so far.

Yeah, looking at the IR imagery, it looks like the center has lost some latitude and is scraping very close.

Even if it dies, I'm just glad we have Harvey out of the way. :D

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