dan88 Posted August 19, 2011 Share Posted August 19, 2011 40kt with the 5pm advisory, center 16.5N 84.7W Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cdawgga1 Posted August 19, 2011 Share Posted August 19, 2011 There is a link somewhere there on how to decode the HDOBs on recon, and once you have that figured out, its is easy. http://www.ofcm.gov/...df/17-app_g.pdf Thanks for your help! I appreciate it! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
k*** Posted August 19, 2011 Share Posted August 19, 2011 why not just go to http://tropicalatlantic.com/recon/ and have it decoded for you? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted August 19, 2011 Share Posted August 19, 2011 40kt with the 5pm advisory, center 16.5N 84.7W Good call-- you correctly predicted the NHC's conservative take. The Discussion mentions possible RI, but the probability of hurricane status (13%) seems way low to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thewxmann Posted August 19, 2011 Share Posted August 19, 2011 NHC forecasting Harvey to reach 55kt before landfall in BZ. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cdawgga1 Posted August 19, 2011 Share Posted August 19, 2011 NHC forecasting Harvey to reach 55kt before landfall in BZ. New advisory...45 mph Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted August 19, 2011 Share Posted August 19, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted August 19, 2011 Share Posted August 19, 2011 New advisory...45 mph Someone already posted that a while ago (above). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted August 19, 2011 Share Posted August 19, 2011 I know I'm weenie-ing out on this one, but I think it's going to strengthen faster than the official forecast. The latest IR has a little red burst right near the center. On previous days, convection was really waning at this time: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dunkman Posted August 19, 2011 Share Posted August 19, 2011 Good call-- you correctly predicted the NHC's conservative take. The Discussion mentions possible RI, but the probability of hurricane status (13%) seems way low to me. Yeah I think the 40% from SHIPS is much more realistic than the NHC's 13% (40+25=cane!) Also, now that we've hit the 8th named storm of the season, I'm glad to have a storm that finally....looks like a real tropical cyclone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted August 19, 2011 Share Posted August 19, 2011 P.S. Look at that beautiful, arcing band way out over the Yucatan. Noice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted August 19, 2011 Share Posted August 19, 2011 Yeah I think the 40% from SHIPS is much more realistic than the NHC's 13% (40+25=cane!) Also, now that we've hit the 8th named storm of the season, I'm glad to have a storm that finally....looks like a real tropical cyclone. Totally. This is really the first one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
k*** Posted August 19, 2011 Share Posted August 19, 2011 coarse, but fairly provocative Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted August 19, 2011 Share Posted August 19, 2011 Hey, folks! Try to read what other people have posted before you post, so you don't post info and images that have already been posted. It'll keep the threads leaner and easier to read. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted August 19, 2011 Share Posted August 19, 2011 your posts are terrible. stop. No reason for hurtyhurtz. I just think if everyone considers a little more before they post, everything will be just fine. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TUweathermanDD Posted August 19, 2011 Share Posted August 19, 2011 your posts are terrible. stop. ha, you insist...what a joke cant you just be like josh and admire the fact that we have our first decent looking tropical system on hand that could become our first cane if RI probs are valid. Either way, just chill and be productive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted August 19, 2011 Share Posted August 19, 2011 OK, no more fighting. The point has been made-- let's get back to the cyclone. I really do think it will become a 'cane. The symmetry, the outflow, the expanding outer bands, that red dot near the center on IR imagery-- it just looks good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cdawgga1 Posted August 19, 2011 Share Posted August 19, 2011 OK, no more fighting. The point has been made-- let's get back to the cyclone. I really do think it will become a 'cane. The symmetry, the outflow, the expanding outer bands, that red dot near the center on IR imagery-- it just looks good. Unfortunately I have an ancient slow computer sometimes. I will endeavor not to clog up the thread. Harvey in the meantime rolls on getting stronger. IMO I think it may just make it to hurricane status just in time before landfall. CDO is getting much better every minute. Looking like a real TC now. I think we are going to be seeing really good TC's from here on out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted August 19, 2011 Share Posted August 19, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted August 19, 2011 Share Posted August 19, 2011 It shows enough though... I spy a ring developing at around 16.7N 84.5W Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
calamity Posted August 19, 2011 Share Posted August 19, 2011 Oh, hai, Harvey. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted August 19, 2011 Share Posted August 19, 2011 Oh, hai, Harvey. I always enjoy your loops Calamity Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
battlebrick Posted August 19, 2011 Share Posted August 19, 2011 plane at operational altitude. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gkrangers Posted August 19, 2011 Share Posted August 19, 2011 Oh, hai, Harvey. That plus the microwave image shows clear organization, at a good pace too. Bet recon finds a healthy TS over the next few hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
k*** Posted August 19, 2011 Share Posted August 19, 2011 Bet recon finds a healthy TS over the next few hours. bold call Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Riptide Posted August 19, 2011 Share Posted August 19, 2011 bold call Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted August 19, 2011 Share Posted August 19, 2011 Hmmm winds so far very weak on the northern flank... center also appears to be further south than expected from microwave. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ArtRosen Posted August 19, 2011 Share Posted August 19, 2011 8 tropical storms in a row without reaching hurricane status. What a record! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan88 Posted August 19, 2011 Share Posted August 19, 2011 Center is going to be very close to land, farther south than the advisory position, recon is down to 16.25N and winds are still 20 degrees. The winds are also fairly light so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted August 19, 2011 Share Posted August 19, 2011 Center is going to be very close to land, farther south than the advisory position, recon is down to 16.25N and winds are still 20 degrees. The winds are also fairly light so far. Yeah, looking at the IR imagery, it looks like the center has lost some latitude and is scraping very close. Even if it dies, I'm just glad we have Harvey out of the way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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