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TS Harvey


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I wouldn't be surprised to see this become a hurricane either, although the most likely scenario I think is that it falls just short. Keith (2000) did go from TD to hurricane in 24 hours, and there was Karl and Richard last year that Phil discussed.

If the IR imagery continues to show reds surrounding the center throughout the afternoon into the evening-- a big "if" given this system's very diurnally-driven pattern-- and if it doesn't speed up, I honestly would expect a 'cane. I'm no forecaster-- I don't get in that game-- but it would just seem a logical expectation given the cyclone's dimensions, location, and trending.

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To clarify, I don't think this becomes a Cat 2-- the analogies I meant are 1) track and 2) steady strengthening.

Oooh, I see... yeah that's definitely a likely solution at this time... and as mentioned, we certainly can't rule out a burst of rapid deepening.

If the IR imagery continues to show reds surrounding the center throughout the afternoon into the evening-- a big "if" given this system's very diurnally-driven pattern-- and if it doesn't speed up, I honestly would expect a 'cane. I'm no forecaster-- I don't get in that game-- but it would just seem a logical expectation given the cyclone's dimensions, location, and trending.

The diurnal max tonight is going to be quite interesting for sure!

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With 24 hours or more over water (at these temps) and seemingly decent UL conditions, anything really, is possible from an intensity standpoint....we can look at many, (in this general location), TC's that went apesheet in that time. Should be a fun Dmax.....

Edit: If it were to go through RI, look for the track to be on the northern edge of NHC's cone.

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zomg DMAX

In this case, though, it's an extremely relevant factor because 1) this particularly system has really pulsed and ebbed with the diurnal cycles and 2) the system finally seems to be getting its act together over a very favorable little area. I agree with DoctorHurricane that the dmax could bring some really interesting developments tonight.

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Now both the Euro and the GFS take Harvey to the BoC, but with a restrengthening ridge centered over TX it won't gain much latitude, if at all.... currently the ridge is a bit weak because of the trough in the EC, but it will move along and the ridge will start to restrengthen in around 24 hours... so if it's going to move more poleward it has to be now.

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UW - CIMSS

ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE

ADT-Version 8.1.3

Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----

Date : 19 AUG 2011 Time : 191500 UTC

Lat : 16:11:56 N Lon : 84:18:01 W

CI# /Pressure/ Vmax

3.4 / 995.5mb/ 53.0kt

Final T# Adj T# Raw T#

3.4 3.5 4.0

Center Temp : -67.9C Cloud Region Temp : -65.8C

Scene Type : UNIFORM CDO CLOUD REGION

Positioning Method : FORECAST INTERPOLATION

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Wow. That would be a healthy jump. But based on the current imagery, 55 kt wouldn't surprise me at all in the next advisory. The 5 pm EDT package will be interestin'.

It's really getting that coiled look:

post-19-0-03581700-1313785391.jpg

I'm really digging the expansion of the CDO that's taking place. Now all we need is a few more nice hot towers to pop up before recon gets there :D

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Wow. That would be a healthy jump. But based on the current imagery, 55 kt wouldn't surprise me at all in the next advisory. The 5 pm EDT package will be interestin'.

It's really getting that coiled look:

I doubt they will go crazy, probably go up to 40kt, but not too much more. It's more likely that they will be conservative until recon makes their fix.

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Yeah I have been to that site before many times but i don't see how someone determines an aircraft is on a runway or has just taken off. I guess I am still learning and missing something.

There is a link somewhere there on how to decode the HDOBs on recon, and once you have that figured out, its is easy.

http://www.ofcm.gov/nhop/11/pdf/17-app_g.pdf

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