HurricaneJosh Posted August 19, 2011 Share Posted August 19, 2011 It's certainly not impossible... while I'm not ready to jump on a category 2 train, it does have a shot. To clarify, I don't think this becomes a Cat 2-- the analogies I meant are 1) track and 2) steady strengthening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted August 19, 2011 Share Posted August 19, 2011 I wouldn't be surprised to see this become a hurricane either, although the most likely scenario I think is that it falls just short. Keith (2000) did go from TD to hurricane in 24 hours, and there was Karl and Richard last year that Phil discussed. If the IR imagery continues to show reds surrounding the center throughout the afternoon into the evening-- a big "if" given this system's very diurnally-driven pattern-- and if it doesn't speed up, I honestly would expect a 'cane. I'm no forecaster-- I don't get in that game-- but it would just seem a logical expectation given the cyclone's dimensions, location, and trending. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PSUBlizzicane2007 Posted August 19, 2011 Share Posted August 19, 2011 To clarify, I don't think this becomes a Cat 2-- the analogies I meant are 1) track and 2) steady strengthening. Oooh, I see... yeah that's definitely a likely solution at this time... and as mentioned, we certainly can't rule out a burst of rapid deepening. If the IR imagery continues to show reds surrounding the center throughout the afternoon into the evening-- a big "if" given this system's very diurnally-driven pattern-- and if it doesn't speed up, I honestly would expect a 'cane. I'm no forecaster-- I don't get in that game-- but it would just seem a logical expectation given the cyclone's dimensions, location, and trending. The diurnal max tonight is going to be quite interesting for sure! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted August 19, 2011 Share Posted August 19, 2011 The diurnal max tonight is going to be quite interesting for sure! Oooooh yeah! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
k*** Posted August 19, 2011 Share Posted August 19, 2011 zomg DMAX Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PSUBlizzicane2007 Posted August 19, 2011 Share Posted August 19, 2011 zomg DMAX For some reason this post made me picture all of us getting up on horses on a coastline watching for the storm to explode overnight. Not sure why. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectKing Posted August 19, 2011 Share Posted August 19, 2011 With 24 hours or more over water (at these temps) and seemingly decent UL conditions, anything really, is possible from an intensity standpoint....we can look at many, (in this general location), TC's that went apesheet in that time. Should be a fun Dmax..... Edit: If it were to go through RI, look for the track to be on the northern edge of NHC's cone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted August 19, 2011 Share Posted August 19, 2011 zomg DMAX In this case, though, it's an extremely relevant factor because 1) this particularly system has really pulsed and ebbed with the diurnal cycles and 2) the system finally seems to be getting its act together over a very favorable little area. I agree with DoctorHurricane that the dmax could bring some really interesting developments tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
k*** Posted August 19, 2011 Share Posted August 19, 2011 I hate when this happens Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted August 19, 2011 Share Posted August 19, 2011 I hate when this happens Grrrrrr. So annoying. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PSUBlizzicane2007 Posted August 19, 2011 Share Posted August 19, 2011 I hate when this happens A little under half is better than nothing... some slight hints that an inner core could be well on its way to developing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scorpion Posted August 19, 2011 Share Posted August 19, 2011 This is going to be fun to watch.. I could see this hitting 85 kt Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted August 19, 2011 Share Posted August 19, 2011 Now both the Euro and the GFS take Harvey to the BoC, but with a restrengthening ridge centered over TX it won't gain much latitude, if at all.... currently the ridge is a bit weak because of the trough in the EC, but it will move along and the ridge will start to restrengthen in around 24 hours... so if it's going to move more poleward it has to be now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsmwhrms Posted August 19, 2011 Share Posted August 19, 2011 UW - CIMSS ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE ADT-Version 8.1.3 Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm ----- Current Analysis ----- Date : 19 AUG 2011 Time : 191500 UTC Lat : 16:11:56 N Lon : 84:18:01 W CI# /Pressure/ Vmax 3.4 / 995.5mb/ 53.0kt Final T# Adj T# Raw T# 3.4 3.5 4.0 Center Temp : -67.9C Cloud Region Temp : -65.8C Scene Type : UNIFORM CDO CLOUD REGION Positioning Method : FORECAST INTERPOLATION Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted August 19, 2011 Share Posted August 19, 2011 This is going to be fun to watch.. I could see this hitting 85 kt I thought you swore off the tropics this year. Recon is on the runway... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan88 Posted August 19, 2011 Share Posted August 19, 2011 Recon is in the air. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted August 19, 2011 Share Posted August 19, 2011 CI# /Pressure/ Vmax 3.4 / 995.5mb/ 53.0kt Wow. That would be a healthy jump. But based on the current imagery, 55 kt wouldn't surprise me at all in the next advisory. The 5 pm EDT package will be interestin'. It's really getting that coiled look: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cdawgga1 Posted August 19, 2011 Share Posted August 19, 2011 Recon is in the air. Where do you monitor the flight at? How do you know it's in the air? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PSUBlizzicane2007 Posted August 19, 2011 Share Posted August 19, 2011 Wow. That would be a healthy jump. But based on the current imagery, 55 kt wouldn't surprise me at all in the next advisory. The 5 pm EDT package will be interestin'. It's really getting that coiled look: I'm really digging the expansion of the CDO that's taking place. Now all we need is a few more nice hot towers to pop up before recon gets there Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PSUBlizzicane2007 Posted August 19, 2011 Share Posted August 19, 2011 Where do you monitor the flight at? How do you know it's in the air? Monitor: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/URNT15-USAF.shtml? Tutorial on how to read it: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/abouthdobs_2007.shtml and http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/hdobs_sample_2007.shtml Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted August 19, 2011 Share Posted August 19, 2011 Where do you monitor the flight at? How do you know it's in the air? NHC web site. One stop shopping... http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/reconlist.shtml Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted August 19, 2011 Share Posted August 19, 2011 Here is my discussion and forecast map for Tropical Storm Harvey... I have it getting to 70mph or 60 knots at landfall... very close to hurricane intensity. http://philstropical...n-the-atlantic/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cdawgga1 Posted August 19, 2011 Share Posted August 19, 2011 NHC web site. One stop shopping... http://www.nhc.noaa....reconlist.shtml Yeah I have been to that site before many times but i don't see how someone determines an aircraft is on a runway or has just taken off. I guess I am still learning and missing something. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan88 Posted August 19, 2011 Share Posted August 19, 2011 Wow. That would be a healthy jump. But based on the current imagery, 55 kt wouldn't surprise me at all in the next advisory. The 5 pm EDT package will be interestin'. It's really getting that coiled look: I doubt they will go crazy, probably go up to 40kt, but not too much more. It's more likely that they will be conservative until recon makes their fix. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PSUBlizzicane2007 Posted August 19, 2011 Share Posted August 19, 2011 Here is my discussion and forecast map for Tropical Storm Harvey... I have it getting to 70mph or 60 knots at landfall... very close to hurricane intensity. http://philstropical...n-the-atlantic/ We seem to be on the same page 100%. I know I said I was going to make maps... but... meh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted August 19, 2011 Share Posted August 19, 2011 I doubt they will go crazy, probably go up to 40kt, but not too much more. It's more likely that they will be conservative until recon makes their fix. Could be. But that is definitely not a 40-kt system right now. At least it doesn't look like one to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted August 19, 2011 Share Posted August 19, 2011 We seem to be on the same page 100%. I know I said I was going to make maps... but... meh. Pretty nice presentation on visible right now... it seems that the CDO is becoming established along with banding features to the NW. This thing is well on its way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted August 19, 2011 Share Posted August 19, 2011 It's turning into a really nice-looking system. What a surprise after the week-long schlockfest with this thing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PSUBlizzicane2007 Posted August 19, 2011 Share Posted August 19, 2011 It's turning into a really nice-looking system. What a surprise after the week-long schlockfest with this thing. You should have gone down to Belize! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted August 19, 2011 Share Posted August 19, 2011 Yeah I have been to that site before many times but i don't see how someone determines an aircraft is on a runway or has just taken off. I guess I am still learning and missing something. There is a link somewhere there on how to decode the HDOBs on recon, and once you have that figured out, its is easy. http://www.ofcm.gov/nhop/11/pdf/17-app_g.pdf Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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