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TS Harvey


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RECON climbing out and maybe just enough to get Harvey...

Product: Air Force Vortex Message (URNT12 KNHC)

Transmitted: 19th day of the month at 14:17Z

Aircraft: Air Force Aircraft (Last 3 digits of the tail number are 302)

Tropical Depression: Number 8 (flight in the North Atlantic basin)

Mission Number: 3 seeall.png

Observation Number: 17

A. Time of Center Fix: 19th day of the month at 13:57:30Z

B. Center Fix Coordinates: 16°04'N 83°27'W (16.0667N 83.45W) viewmap.png

B. Center Fix Location: 262 miles (421 km) to the SSW (211°) from George Town, Cayman Islands (GBR).

C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: 1,459m (4,787ft) at 850mb

D. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind: 35kts (~ 40.3mph)

E. Location of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind: 17 nautical miles (20 statute miles) to the N (356°) of center fix

F. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 103° at 40kts (From the ESE at ~ 46.0mph)

G. Location of Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 42 nautical miles (48 statute miles) to the N (354°) of center fix

H. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 1005mb (29.68 inHg)

I. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 15°C (59°F) at a pressure alt. of 1,538m (5,046ft)

J. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 20°C (68°F) at a pressure alt. of 1,526m (5,007ft)

K. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 16°C (61°F)

K. Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not Available

L. Eye Character: Not Available

M. Eye Shape: Not Available

N. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Radar, Wind, Pressure and Temperature

N. Fix Level: 850mb

O. Navigation Fix Accuracy: 0.02 nautical miles

O. Meteorological Accuracy: 1 nautical mile

Remarks Section:

Maximum Flight Level Wind: 40kts (~ 46.0mph) in the north quadrant at 13:44:20Z

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RECON climbing out and maybe just enough to get Harvey...

Nope. Not enough...

BULLETIN

TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT ADVISORY NUMBER 3

NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082011

1100 AM EDT FRI AUG 19 2011

...HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT FINDS DEPRESSION JUST BELOW

TROPICAL-STORM STRENGTH...TROPICAL STORM WARNING ISSUED...

SUMMARY OF 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION

-----------------------------------------------

LOCATION...16.1N 83.7W

ABOUT 195 MI...310 KM E OF ISLA ROATAN HONDURAS

ABOUT 315 MI...505 KM ESE OF BELIZE CITY

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H

PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H

MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS

--------------------

CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF HONDURAS HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR

THE BAY ISLANDS OF HONDURAS.

THE GOVERNMENT OF BELIZE HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR THE

COAST OF BELIZE FROM DANGRIGA TOWN SOUTHWARD TO THE BELIZE/GUATEMALA

BORDER. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING WILL LIKELY BE ISSUED FOR THIS

AREA LATER TODAY.

THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR THE

SOUTHEASTERN COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM PUNTA GRUESA

SOUTHWARD TO CHETUMAL.

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Nope. Not enough...

Probably at 2 PM or 5 PM... this is getting much better organized. It will be interesting to see just how much it is able to strengthen before it makes landfall in Belize. In this area of the Caribbean, the nearby landmasses are not hostile at all to further strengthening... especially for a system as small as 08L.

I'm still going with a 50-60 KT landfall in central to north central Belize for now, though.

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Convection blowing up around the center, especially in the Srn half which was lacking before.

Yep... so we are looking at around 24 hours with this system over open waters under low shear, high total precipitable water (TPW), and very high sea surface temperatures (SSTs) with decent oceanic heat content (OHC). Since this is also a smaller than average sized system, you always have to be on guard for the potential of rapid intensification especially if the convection becomes more established into a CDO pattern. If that happens, we could see an intensification scheme similar to other recent systems that traversed this area (Karl and Richard of last year). I know I'll be closely watching this afternoon to see how the convection evolves, because if this starts forming an inner core, the current NHC forecast might be a tad on the conservative side.

29b1s0l.jpg

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Here are some interesting stats from the systems that struck Belize last year. Under favorable environments, both Karl and Richard were able to intensify 25 knots in 24 hours. Of particular interest is Richard which was very close to the same lat long as TD#8 when it began its episode of rapid intensification (16.0N 83.6W). TD#8 will likely take a track very similar to what Richard did back last year, but will be moving at a slightly faster rate, giving it about 6-12 hours less time than Richard had over open waters. Based purely on the analogs outlined here, its entirely reasonable to expect TD#8 to experience a similar rate of intensification given the current favorable conditions, which would put the max intensity at around 55 knots in 24 hours, which would be near landfall.

I think these systems are good analogs both because they were both smaller than average tropical cyclones, were under favorable atmospheric conditions, were located in the same general region while also taking similar tracks, and also started their episodes of intensification close to the current intensity as TD#8 (Weak Tropical Storms).

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We have harvey as of 2 PM!

BULLETIN

TROPICAL STORM HARVEY INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 3A

NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082011

200 PM EDT FRI AUG 19 2011

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT BECOMES TROPICAL STORM

HARVEY...TROPICAL STORM WARNING ISSUED FOR BELIZE...

SUMMARY OF 200 PM EDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION

----------------------------------------------

LOCATION...16.3N 84.2W

ABOUT 155 MI...250 KM E OF ISLA ROATAN HONDURAS

ABOUT 285 MI...460 KM ESE OF BELIZE CITY

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H

PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H

MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES

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WTNT33 KNHC 191751TCPAT3BULLETINTROPICAL STORM HARVEY INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 3ANWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082011200 PM EDT FRI AUG 19 2011...TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT BECOMES TROPICAL STORMHARVEY...TROPICAL STORM WARNING ISSUED FOR BELIZE...SUMMARY OF 200 PM EDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION----------------------------------------------LOCATION...16.3N 84.2WABOUT 155 MI...250 KM E OF ISLA ROATAN HONDURASABOUT 285 MI...460 KM ESE OF BELIZE CITYMAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/HPRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/HMINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHESWATCHES AND WARNINGS--------------------CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...THE GOVERNMENT OF BELIZE HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THECOAST OF BELIZE.SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...* THE BAY ISLANDS OF HONDURAS* THE COAST OF BELIZE.A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...* THE COAST OF HONDURAS* THE COAST OF GUATEMALA* THE SOUTHEASTERN COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM PUNTA GRUESASOUTHWARD TO CHETUMALA TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS AREEXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS AREPOSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE AT ANY TIME WITHIN THENEXT 48 HOURS.FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITORPRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK------------------------------AT 200 PM EDT...1800 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM HARVEYWAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 84.2 WEST. HARVEYIS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 10 MPH...17 KM/H. A GENERALWESTWARD TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED DURINGTHE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OFHARVEY WILL PASS NEAR THE BAY ISLANDS OF HONDURAS TONIGHT ANDMOVE ACROSS THE COAST OF BELIZE SATURDAY OR SATURDAY NIGHT.MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 40 MPH...65 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST BEFORE THECENTER OF HARVEY REACHES BELIZE.THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1005 MB...29.68 INCHES.HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND----------------------WIND...TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE BAY ISLANDSOF HONDURAS TONIGHT...AND OVER THE COAST OF BELIZE SATURDAY ORSATURDAY NIGHT. TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THENORTHERN COAST OF HONDURAS TODAY AND TONIGHT...ALONG THE NORTHERNCOAST OF GUATEMALA ON SATURDAY...AND ALONG THE SOUTHEASTERN COASTOF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO SATURDAY OR SATURDAY NIGHT.RAINFALL...HARVEY IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALLACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES ACROSS HONDURAS...GUATEMALA...ANDBELIZE...WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 8 INCHES. THESERAINS COULD PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES...ESPECIALLY OVER HIGHER TERRAIN.NEXT ADVISORY-------------NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 PM EDT.

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MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 40 MPH...65 KM/H... WITH HIGHER GUSTS. ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST BEFORE THE CENTER OF HARVEY REACHES BELIZE.

I know I'm going out on a limb, but based on the standard wording for advisories, this doesn't sound like a phrase they would use if they only expect the storm to increase by another 5 knots.

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THe system is looking weirdly hawt all of a sudden, with reds surrounding the center. I think this can make a run at 65 kt-- I would not be surprised at all now.

Phil882's comments (above) Re: Karl and Richard are highly relevant-- in fact, I'm getting a very weird Richard deja vu from this:

post-19-0-98877300-1313781650.jpg

Agree. I would not at all be surprised to see this become our first hurricane of the season at this point. Considering how many similarly sized systems have rapidly intensified in this area with equally good upper level conditions, it is difficult to discount it.

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Agree. I would not at all be surprised to see this become our first hurricane of the season at this point. Considering how many similarly sized systems have rapidly intensified in this area with equally good upper level conditions, it is difficult to discount it.

Yep. It's tiny-- a true micro-- in the most high-octane patch of real estate in the entire basin.

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Yep. It's tiny-- a true micro-- in the most high-octane patch of real estate in the entire basin.

Note... I'm not using this as an analog by any means... but Hurricane Keith in 2000 was probably one of the more fun ones to track in this area due to its unexpected strengthening. Of course, unlike Harvey, Keith was moving at a snail's pace.

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Note... I'm not using this as an analog by any means... but Hurricane Keith in 2000 was probably one of the more fun ones to track in this area due to its unexpected strengthening. Of course, unlike Harvey, Keith was moving at a snail's pace.

I think Richard 2010 could end up being a great analogy here, with possibly identical tracks-- just N-of-W motion-- and steady, slow strengthening to landfall in BZ.

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I wouldn't be surprised to see this become a hurricane either, although the most likely scenario I think is that it falls just short. Keith (2000) did go from TD to hurricane in 24 hours, and there was Karl and Richard last year that Phil discussed.

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