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TS Harvey


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Please let them just find an isolated 35-kt barb tomorrow so they can name this Harvey, we can be done with that name, and we can continue our cool loser streak! :thumbsup:

The I storms are always good.. especially in 2016.

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The large amount of convection to the north of TD#8 still might leave open the possibility for a center relocation further north. However, I think this was just a case of too little too late, as the storm still doesn't have much vertical depth with scattered convection continuing but nothing really consolidated like a CDO appearing.

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Looks like it's getting a little bit of dmax help-- which has been the rule with this system. Still looks like crap, but there's convection now, at least. Also, I'm wondering if all that energy to the N of the advisory center might drag or relocate it a little more N. Wishful thinking maybe. I just want this trash heap to hit 35 kt and get the nerd name it deserves!

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Looks like it's getting a little bit of dmax help-- which has been the rule with this system. Still looks like crap, but there's convection now, at least. Also, I'm wondering if all that energy to the N of the advisory center might drag or relocate it a little more N. Wishful thinking maybe. I just what this trash heap to hit 35 kt and get the nerd name it deserves!

Good timing weight_lift.gif

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Interesting-- despite our reads of the latest IR and MW imagery, the 5 am EDT package puts the center at 15.5N-- indicating not latitude gain since 2 am EDT.

Whatevz. I bet you recon finds the center further N this morning.

I wonder if the AMSRE microwave pass came in before the advisory was issued, but it certainly seems like the position is further north than that, around 16N 83W

2i9ovwx.jpg

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I wonder if the AMSRE microwave pass came in before the advisory was issued, but it certainly seems like the position is further north than that, around 16N 83W

Totally. Maybe it's not 16.0N, but based on that MW, I'd put it at 15.8N or .9N. I'll bet you're right-- that they completed the analysis and wrote up the advisory before seeing these latest images, because they clearly show a center much further-N than what the advisory indicates.

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Center (fixed from 850mb) is at roughly 16.0N, 83.3W, extrap pressure 1003.5mb.

From here, 270 degree motion would lead to a scrape of the coast, while 280 degree motion would keep it solidly in the water. It looks like it has avoided land for the time being, .4 north and .4 East of the advisory location

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Center location was significant enough for an update with no change in winds. With this giving it far more time over water not along the coast, I'd expect some decent size changes with the 11am advisory.

ZCZC MIATCUAT3 ALL

TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATE

NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082011

835 AM EDT FRI AUG 19 2011

...HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT FINDS THAT THE CENTER OF THE DEPRESSION

FARTHER TO THE NORTHEAST...

REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE

THAT THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT IS LOCATED ABOUT

35 MILES NORTHEAST OF THE POSITION IN THE 8 AM INTERMEDIATE

ADVISORY.

SUMMARY OF 835 AM EDT...1235 UTC...INFORMATION

----------------------------------------------

LOCATION...16.0N 83.3W

ABOUT 70 MI...110 KM N OF CABO GRACIAS A DIOS ON NIC/HON BORDER

ABOUT 345 MI...555 KM ESE OF BELIZE CITY

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H

PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...16 KM/H

MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES

$$

FORECASTER BEVEN

NNNN

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Product: Air Force Vortex Message (URNT12 KNHC)

Transmitted: 19th day of the month at 13:25Z

Aircraft: Air Force Aircraft (Last 3 digits of the tail number are 302)

Tropical Depression: Number 8 (flight in the North Atlantic basin)

Mission Number: 3 seeall.png

Observation Number: 13

A. Time of Center Fix: 19th day of the month at 13:07:10Z

B. Center Fix Coordinates: 16°03'N 83°23'W (16.05N 83.3833W) viewmap.png

B. Center Fix Location: 261 miles (419 km) to the SSW (210°) from George Town, Cayman Islands (GBR).

C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: 1,459m (4,787ft) at 850mb

D. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind: 30kts (~ 34.5mph)

E. Location of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind: 26 nautical miles (30 statute miles) to the WSW (255°) of center fix

F. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 350° at 28kts (From the N at ~ 32.2mph)

G. Location of Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 21 nautical miles (24 statute miles) to the WSW (255°) of center fix

H. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 1004mb (29.65 inHg)

I. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 17°C (63°F) at a pressure alt. of 1,523m (4,997ft)

J. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 20°C (68°F) at a pressure alt. of 1,522m (4,993ft)

K. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 17°C (63°F)

K. Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not Available

L. Eye Character: Not Available

M. Eye Shape: Not Available

N. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Radar, Wind, Pressure and Temperature

N. Fix Level: 850mb

O. Navigation Fix Accuracy: 0.02 nautical miles

O. Meteorological Accuracy: 1 nautical mile

Remarks Section:

Maximum Wind Outbound: 38kts (~ 43.7mph) in the northeast quadrant at 13:18:30Z

Maximum Flight Level Wind: 38kts (~ 43.7mph) in the northeast quadrant at 13:18:30Z

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Looking at the dropsondes, the system appears to be organizing. Last hour, the drop was released at the 850mb center, with 2kt winds at 850mb, and spashed with 17kt west winds. This pass, it was also dropped at the 850mb center, and the highest winds at any level were 6kt.

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