Max Posted August 18, 2011 Share Posted August 18, 2011 MW shows it's south of 16... 15.5-15.7 But that is a couple hours old now! It could have easily gone up another couple tenths of a degree since then! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted August 18, 2011 Share Posted August 18, 2011 But that is a couple hours old now! It could have easily gone up another couple tenths of a degree since then! Or dissipated... but I doubt both...it hasn't changed much in 2 hours, visible loop pretty much confirms MW imagery. I at least provided evidence. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Max Posted August 18, 2011 Share Posted August 18, 2011 Or dissipated... but I doubt both...it hasn't changed much in 2 hours, visible loop pretty much confirms MW imagery. I at least provided evidence. True, but you know where all the evidence lies on the net, I am still learning where to get all this data. You have plenty of years of american wx and eastern wx experience! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
icebreaker5221 Posted August 18, 2011 Share Posted August 18, 2011 About as linear as it gets. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted August 18, 2011 Share Posted August 18, 2011 True, but you know where all the evidence lies on the net, I am still learning where to get all this data. You have plenty of years of american wx and eastern wx experience! What led you to affirm it had reformed north? There's no evidence of that. But that's ok, we can leave it at that, time will tell the tale... I certainly wish it had relocated Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Max Posted August 18, 2011 Share Posted August 18, 2011 No, not reform, just jump with the convection, or its just on the northern edge of the convection and we just don't know it, but maybe my eyes are playing tricks on my when watching the visible loop update! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted August 18, 2011 Share Posted August 18, 2011 About as linear as it gets. Xtrap wins again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted August 18, 2011 Share Posted August 18, 2011 No, not reform, just jump with the convection, or its just on the northern edge of the convection and we just don't know it, but maybe my eyes are playing tricks on my when watching the visible loop update! Visible loops tend to do that, you are probably looking at the mid levels turning, which is a bit north. All the latest microwave images confirm it's south of 16N, and if it's currently at or north of it, is because it reformed, which I don't think it did. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Max Posted August 18, 2011 Share Posted August 18, 2011 And WXMX, I would post evidence of the visible loop and put an L where I think the low is right now, but I'm not on my laptop, I'm on another computer where I can't post images! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isopycnic Posted August 18, 2011 Share Posted August 18, 2011 Xtrap wins again. this made me lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
New England Storm Posted August 18, 2011 Share Posted August 18, 2011 I wonder if would we get the TD upgrade soon. Could still be 48 hrs out at this point but, I would money on this getting an upgrade Before to long. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted August 19, 2011 Share Posted August 19, 2011 It looks like 93L has slowed just a bit this evening. Deep convection is still lacking, but another 12-18 hours over water in this part of the basin can offer a surprise or two re: strengthening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted August 19, 2011 Share Posted August 19, 2011 It looks like 93L has slowed just a bit this evening. Deep convection is still lacking, but another 12-18 hours over water in this part of the basin can offer a surprise or two re: strengthening. Tell me the truth now SteveO, the 18 Z GFS porn gave you a little wood, didn't it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted August 19, 2011 Share Posted August 19, 2011 Tell me the truth now SteveO, the 18 Z GFS porn gave you a little wood, didn't it. A rain cloud would be more exciting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted August 19, 2011 Share Posted August 19, 2011 A rain cloud would be more exciting. Cripes still 100? Sorry for the OT but have not paid any attention to Texas until today, wow 97 L coming across the Gulf would be a godsend, geez. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hurricaneman Posted August 19, 2011 Share Posted August 19, 2011 First advisory at 11 BEST TRACK: AL08, 154N 815W, 30kts, 1006mb, TD EIGHT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted August 19, 2011 Share Posted August 19, 2011 First advisory at 11 BEST TRACK: AL08, 154N 815W, 30kts, 1006mb, TD EIGHT Yep, MW shows it's about to crash with Gracias a Dios Cape. It lost some latitude these last few hours. Whatever Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted August 19, 2011 Share Posted August 19, 2011 Yep, MW shows it's about to crash with Gracias a Dios Cape. It lost some latitude these last few hours. Whatever What a stupid waste of time of a system. We've been tracking it for how many days? And the grand finale is a TD crashing into Nicaragua? How ridiculous is that? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted August 19, 2011 Share Posted August 19, 2011 What a stupid waste of time of a system. We've been tracking it for how many days? And the grand finale is a TD crashing into Nicaragua? How ridiculous is that? Remember this gem... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted August 19, 2011 Share Posted August 19, 2011 Cripes still 100? Sorry for the OT but have not paid any attention to Texas until today, wow 97 L coming across the Gulf would be a godsend, geez. 104º (40º Canadian) in Houston today, too bad 93L will come nowhere near and despite the odd 18Z GFS run, I think 97L is probably East and the drought goes on. For months. Maybe tropical season 2012. Trees already dying in Memorial Park. But I'm open if the models shift West on drought relief. About 30 inches below normal since Ike, I believe. Heat gets more impressive as we get to late April insolation levels and dropping. Close to half (or a bit more) of future TD 8 will come ashore, but I don't rule out recon finding 35 knots over open water North of the center tomorrow if they fly and use up the name Harvey. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted August 19, 2011 Share Posted August 19, 2011 Remember this gem... I don't want to chase a Hurricane Harvey. It sounds ridiculous. I'd be embarrassed to say it. It sounds like the name of a cheap Borscht Belt act. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted August 19, 2011 Author Share Posted August 19, 2011 I don't want to chase a Hurricane Harvey. It sounds ridiculous. I'd be embarrassed to say it. It sounds like the name of a cheap Borscht Belt act. Be glad 98L is looking so much more robust than 97L... with any luck, Harvey ends up meandering around the east ATL and we still end up with 97L getting named Irene. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted August 19, 2011 Share Posted August 19, 2011 Be glad 98L is looking so much more robust than 97L... with any luck, Harvey ends up meandering around the east ATL and we still end up with 97L getting named Irene. Good point. I haven't been following 98L, but that looks to to be fish, doesn't it? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted August 19, 2011 Share Posted August 19, 2011 Good point. I haven't been following 98L, but that looks to to be fish, doesn't it? Per 12Z Euro, yes. But the rare TS watches/warnings for the Cape Verdes if we're lucky? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted August 19, 2011 Author Share Posted August 19, 2011 Good point. I haven't been following 98L, but that looks to to be fish, doesn't it? That'd be my guess... it seems pretty far north already. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hm8 Posted August 19, 2011 Share Posted August 19, 2011 Remember this gem... reminds me of today's 18z run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cdawgga1 Posted August 19, 2011 Share Posted August 19, 2011 First advisory at 11 BEST TRACK: AL08, 154N 815W, 30kts, 1006mb, TD EIGHT New to all this. Where do you find the information before it comes out on the NHC public site? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted August 19, 2011 Share Posted August 19, 2011 New to all this. Where do you find the information before it comes out on the NHC public site? I go here... ftp://ftp.nhc.noaa.gov/atcf/tcweb/invest_RENUMBER_al932011_al082011.ren Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sleetfreak Posted August 19, 2011 Share Posted August 19, 2011 New to all this. Where do you find the information before it comes out on the NHC public site? http://my.sfwmd.gov/sfwmd/common/images/weather/chg.txt Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted August 19, 2011 Share Posted August 19, 2011 BULLETIN TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT ADVISORY NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082011 1100 PM EDT THU AUG 18 2011 ...TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS IN THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA... SUMMARY OF 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...15.4N 82.1W ABOUT 80 MI...125 KM ENE OF CABO GRACIAS A DIOS ON NIC/HON BORDER ABOUT 430 MI...690 KM ESE OF BELIZE CITY MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE GOVERNMENT OF GUATEMALA HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR THE COAST OF GUATEMALA. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * THE COAST OF GUATEMALA TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE ALONG THE NORTH COAST OF HONDURAS AND THE BAY ISLANDS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 TO 48 HOURS. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ AT 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 82.1 WEST. THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 12 MPH...19 KM/H...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. ON THIS TRACK...THE CENTER OF THE DEPRESSION SHOULD MOVE NEAR OR OVER THE NORTH COAST OF HONDURAS BY FRIDAY MORNING...AND APPROACH SOUTHERN BELIZE ON SATURDAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. THE DEPRESSION COULD STRENGTHEN INTO A TROPICAL STORM ON FRIDAY. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1006 MB...29.71 INCHES. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND...TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE NORTH COAST OF HONDURAS ON FRIDAY AND ON THE COAST OF GUATEMALA ON SATURDAY. RAINFALL...THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES ACROSS HONDURAS...GUATEMALA AND BELIZE WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 8 INCHES. THESE RAINS COULD PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES... ESPECIALLY OVER HIGHER TERRAIN. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...200 AM EDT. NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 AM EDT. $$ FORECASTER BLAKE/BROWN Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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