am19psu Posted August 18, 2011 Share Posted August 18, 2011 I took it into Belize as a weak TS this morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted August 18, 2011 Share Posted August 18, 2011 Good trends overnight, though at snail pace. At least it looks to have gained enough latitude to miss Ni/Hn (probably needs a couple of tenths to be sure, but overall it has been moving at ~275-280 the last 24 hours, which should be enough) ... It gained itself almost 1.5 days to try to intensify. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted August 18, 2011 Share Posted August 18, 2011 Looking at the vis loop, it looks like there's some weakly west low cloud elements to the south... it's almost/barely there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PSUBlizzicane2007 Posted August 18, 2011 Share Posted August 18, 2011 Good trends overnight, though at snail pace. At least it looks to have gained enough latitude to miss Ni/Hn (probably needs a couple of tenths to be sure, but overall it has been moving at ~275-280 the last 24 hours, which should be enough) ... It gained itself almost 1.5 days to try to intensify. Indeed, it's going to be quite close for today's reconnaissance mission.. but I think they will be able to find a decent enough circulation center for this to be classified. Right now, I'd go with a moderate to strong tropical storm into north-central Belize. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted August 18, 2011 Share Posted August 18, 2011 Indeed, it's going to be quite close for today's reconnaissance mission.. but I think they will be able to find a decent enough circulation center for this to be classified. Right now, I'd go with a moderate to strong tropical storm into north-central Belize. Same thought for me about track and intensity, but with the disclaimer that this is a small system in the NW Caribbean, it can go poof or go ape**** in a hurry Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PSUBlizzicane2007 Posted August 18, 2011 Share Posted August 18, 2011 Same thought for me about track and intensity, but with the disclaimer that this is a small system in the NW Caribbean, it can go poof or go ape**** in a hurry Maybe Josh will finally get his true microcane Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted August 18, 2011 Share Posted August 18, 2011 microwave also gives a hint that there is some sort of small llc currently under the convection. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted August 18, 2011 Share Posted August 18, 2011 This is definitely becoming better organized, and I think it's already a TD with a CDO with moderate convection and a main band in wrapped around the northern half. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scorpion Posted August 18, 2011 Share Posted August 18, 2011 Is it possible that being right off the coast could help it tighten up and intensify more than expected? I feel with such a small core it could ramp up quickly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
VAwxman Posted August 18, 2011 Share Posted August 18, 2011 Is it possible that being right off the coast could help it tighten up and intensify more than expected? I feel with such a small core it could ramp up quickly. As long as the whole core stays north of Honduras, which is possible since it is so small, then yeah it could ramp up fast. Like wxmx said above, with these really tiny ones, they can go nuts in a hurry or can fall apart in a hurry. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted August 18, 2011 Share Posted August 18, 2011 As long as the whole core stays north of Honduras, which is possible since it is so small, then yeah it could ramp up fast. Like wxmx said above, with these really tiny ones, they can go nuts in a hurry or can fall apart in a hurry. Perhaps a great example of this was Paula last year... the small circulation ramped up very quickly from a weak tropical storm to a Category 2 hurricane in about 12 hours starting near the Honduras coastline. Frictional convergence might have played a role in allowing the llc to become established in Paula's case, although beyond that period most of the RI that occurred could be attributed to very warm sea surface temperatures and the small inner core size. I should note thought that 93L doesn't have nearly the envelope that Paula did last year. Despite Paula's small size, its circulation was far more established than the circulation we are witnessing from 93L at this current time, and I wouldn't expect the same rapid development in the short term with this system, although it is likely at the threshold of a depression. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan88 Posted August 18, 2011 Share Posted August 18, 2011 Should be getting some info soon, Recon has dropped from cruise altitude. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan88 Posted August 18, 2011 Share Posted August 18, 2011 Not sure what is happening with recon. It got as far west as roughly 79.5W while descending to 850mb, turned around and now heading east and ascending to cruise attitude. They did find some SW winds around 700mb before leaving. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted August 18, 2011 Share Posted August 18, 2011 Bummer! Probably technical problems... so we are left to MW or ASCAT to try to clear if we have already a TD or not. ASCAT sweep for the 93L area will be up in < 1 hour and it looks like it will nail the whole circulation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan88 Posted August 18, 2011 Share Posted August 18, 2011 SHOWER ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED ABOUT 200 MILES EAST-NORTHEAST OF CAPE GRACIAS A DIOS NICARAGUA CONTINUES TO SHOW SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE UNIT AIRCRAFT SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE THE SYSTEM THIS AFTERNOON EXPERIENCED MECHANICAL PROBLEMS AND HAD TO RETURN TO BASE. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS REMAIN CONDUCIVE FOR A TROPICAL DEPRESSION TO FORM WITHIN THE NEXT DAY OR SO. THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH CHANCE...80 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES GENERALLY WESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH. INTERESTS ALONG THE COASTS OF HONDURAS...NICARAGUA...BELIZE...AND THE EASTERN YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS DISTURBANCE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted August 18, 2011 Share Posted August 18, 2011 Wow, I'm getting bored sh*tless with this one. It's like, form already. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted August 18, 2011 Share Posted August 18, 2011 Wow, I'm getting bored sh*tless with this one. It's like, form already. Imagine producing forecasts for it for the last 8 days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cheeznado Posted August 18, 2011 Share Posted August 18, 2011 12z CMC, East coast of Florida: Wrong thread Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PSUBlizzicane2007 Posted August 18, 2011 Share Posted August 18, 2011 Wow, I'm getting bored sh*tless with this one. It's like, form already. To be fair, it's on the cusp of forming... though I wonder if the NHC would upgrade it without the recon there to confirm it? I'd venture they'd be willing to do that, particularly in respect to it being close to land... but maybe not until 11 PM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PSUBlizzicane2007 Posted August 18, 2011 Share Posted August 18, 2011 12Z Euro has it deepening a bit before making landfall in what looks to be just north of central Belize. I'd say that's a fair forecast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted August 18, 2011 Share Posted August 18, 2011 Almost 3 hours old, vorticity is elongated, but the northern part has some weak wind that could be the start of absolute west wind (it's already from that direction relative to the storm) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
k*** Posted August 18, 2011 Share Posted August 18, 2011 It seems like recon is having a lot of trouble with mechanical difficulties this year...wonder if its coincidence or related to the recession. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PSUBlizzicane2007 Posted August 18, 2011 Share Posted August 18, 2011 It seems like recon is having a lot of trouble with mechanical difficulties this year...wonder if its coincidence or related to the recession. I was thinking the same thing, and I remember reading an article a little while back about how they had to cut funding to the program and were concerned about flying less missions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted August 18, 2011 Share Posted August 18, 2011 It seems like recon is having a lot of trouble with mechanical difficulties this year...wonder if its coincidence or related to the recession. there are significant rises in plane crashes related to economic downturns but thats a story for another day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted August 18, 2011 Share Posted August 18, 2011 Could have some work on the southern part, but it looks decent enough to upgrade it to a TD. Let's see if the NHC deems 93L worthy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted August 18, 2011 Share Posted August 18, 2011 LLC center is around 15.6N 81W and moving almost due west... hasn't cleared Honduras latitude yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Max Posted August 18, 2011 Share Posted August 18, 2011 Center looks to have jumped to 16N or a touch above 16N with the latest burst of convection! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted August 18, 2011 Share Posted August 18, 2011 Center looks to have jumped to 16N or a touch above 16N with the latest burst of convection! I think it is still South of 16ºN, based on the loop, although w/o recon, who really knows. It is closed at some level, I can see West to East cloud motion, but I don't see low cloud elements showing a West wind. Of course, if it is a small center, that could be hidden by the convection. Its judgement w/o recon, but assuming there won't be another plane tonight (no fresh HDOBs to suggest a flight is preparing to leave) in the interest of course of least regret, I might have upgraded to a TD so I could get warnings hoisted for Honduras. On the other side of that, even if the center makes landfall, it won't be all that strong a storm and I'm not sure what advisories would really accomplish. And a flight tomorrow allows time to warn BZ if it does clear CA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Max Posted August 18, 2011 Share Posted August 18, 2011 I think it is still South of 16ºN, based on the loop, although w/o recon, who really knows. It is closed at some level, I can see West to East cloud motion, but I don't see low cloud elements showing a West wind. Of course, if it is a small center, that could be hidden by the convection. Its judgement w/o recon, but assuming there won't be another plane tonight (no fresh HDOBs to suggest a flight is preparing to leave) in the interest of course of least regret, I might have upgraded to a TD so I could get warnings hoisted for Honduras. On the other side of that, even if the center makes landfall, it won't be all that strong a storm and I'm not sure what advisories would really accomplish. And a flight tomorrow allows time to warn BZ if it does clear CA. Very tough to say, but I think the center is like the size of Marco and unless we get recon in there, we won't know how strong this thing really is. I bet tonight it could take off the way its been organizing lately. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted August 18, 2011 Share Posted August 18, 2011 MW shows it's south of 16... 15.5-15.7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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