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TS Harvey


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Good trends overnight, though at snail pace. At least it looks to have gained enough latitude to miss Ni/Hn (probably needs a couple of tenths to be sure, but overall it has been moving at ~275-280 the last 24 hours, which should be enough) ... It gained itself almost 1.5 days to try to intensify.

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Good trends overnight, though at snail pace. At least it looks to have gained enough latitude to miss Ni/Hn (probably needs a couple of tenths to be sure, but overall it has been moving at ~275-280 the last 24 hours, which should be enough) ... It gained itself almost 1.5 days to try to intensify.

Indeed, it's going to be quite close for today's reconnaissance mission.. but I think they will be able to find a decent enough circulation center for this to be classified.

Right now, I'd go with a moderate to strong tropical storm into north-central Belize.

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Indeed, it's going to be quite close for today's reconnaissance mission.. but I think they will be able to find a decent enough circulation center for this to be classified.

Right now, I'd go with a moderate to strong tropical storm into north-central Belize.

Same thought for me about track and intensity, but with the disclaimer that this is a small system in the NW Caribbean, it can go poof or go ape**** in a hurry

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Is it possible that being right off the coast could help it tighten up and intensify more than expected? I feel with such a small core it could ramp up quickly.

As long as the whole core stays north of Honduras, which is possible since it is so small, then yeah it could ramp up fast. Like wxmx said above, with these really tiny ones, they can go nuts in a hurry or can fall apart in a hurry.

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As long as the whole core stays north of Honduras, which is possible since it is so small, then yeah it could ramp up fast. Like wxmx said above, with these really tiny ones, they can go nuts in a hurry or can fall apart in a hurry.

Perhaps a great example of this was Paula last year... the small circulation ramped up very quickly from a weak tropical storm to a Category 2 hurricane in about 12 hours starting near the Honduras coastline. Frictional convergence might have played a role in allowing the llc to become established in Paula's case, although beyond that period most of the RI that occurred could be attributed to very warm sea surface temperatures and the small inner core size.

I should note thought that 93L doesn't have nearly the envelope that Paula did last year. Despite Paula's small size, its circulation was far more established than the circulation we are witnessing from 93L at this current time, and I wouldn't expect the same rapid development in the short term with this system, although it is likely at the threshold of a depression.

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SHOWER ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED ABOUT 200

MILES EAST-NORTHEAST OF CAPE GRACIAS A DIOS NICARAGUA CONTINUES TO

SHOW SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE UNIT AIRCRAFT

SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE THE SYSTEM THIS AFTERNOON EXPERIENCED

MECHANICAL PROBLEMS AND HAD TO RETURN TO BASE. ENVIRONMENTAL

CONDITIONS REMAIN CONDUCIVE FOR A TROPICAL DEPRESSION TO FORM

WITHIN THE NEXT DAY OR SO. THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH CHANCE...80

PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS

AS IT MOVES GENERALLY WESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH. INTERESTS ALONG THE

COASTS OF HONDURAS...NICARAGUA...BELIZE...AND THE EASTERN YUCATAN

PENINSULA OF MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS

DISTURBANCE.

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Wow, I'm getting bored sh*tless with this one. It's like, form already.

To be fair, it's on the cusp of forming... though I wonder if the NHC would upgrade it without the recon there to confirm it? I'd venture they'd be willing to do that, particularly in respect to it being close to land... but maybe not until 11 PM.

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It seems like recon is having a lot of trouble with mechanical difficulties this year...wonder if its coincidence or related to the recession.

I was thinking the same thing, and I remember reading an article a little while back about how they had to cut funding to the program and were concerned about flying less missions.

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Center looks to have jumped to 16N or a touch above 16N with the latest burst of convection!

I think it is still South of 16ºN, based on the loop, although w/o recon, who really knows. It is closed at some level, I can see West to East cloud motion, but I don't see low cloud elements showing a West wind. Of course, if it is a small center, that could be hidden by the convection.

Its judgement w/o recon, but assuming there won't be another plane tonight (no fresh HDOBs to suggest a flight is preparing to leave) in the interest of course of least regret, I might have upgraded to a TD so I could get warnings hoisted for Honduras. On the other side of that, even if the center makes landfall, it won't be all that strong a storm and I'm not sure what advisories would really accomplish. And a flight tomorrow allows time to warn BZ if it does clear CA.

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I think it is still South of 16ºN, based on the loop, although w/o recon, who really knows. It is closed at some level, I can see West to East cloud motion, but I don't see low cloud elements showing a West wind. Of course, if it is a small center, that could be hidden by the convection.

Its judgement w/o recon, but assuming there won't be another plane tonight (no fresh HDOBs to suggest a flight is preparing to leave) in the interest of course of least regret, I might have upgraded to a TD so I could get warnings hoisted for Honduras. On the other side of that, even if the center makes landfall, it won't be all that strong a storm and I'm not sure what advisories would really accomplish. And a flight tomorrow allows time to warn BZ if it does clear CA.

Very tough to say, but I think the center is like the size of Marco and unless we get recon in there, we won't know how strong this thing really is. I bet tonight it could take off the way its been organizing lately.

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