Jump to content
  • Member Statistics

    17,606
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    ArlyDude
    Newest Member
    ArlyDude
    Joined

TS Harvey


Recommended Posts

  • Replies 663
  • Created
  • Last Reply

Here is a n00b question. Do we understand why tropical systems seem to undergo diurnal max/min?

Unlike land, sea surface temperatures don't change (much) during the day/night. The atmosphere still radiates energy back to space once the sun goes down, however. As the atmosphere cools, but the sea surface stays constant temperature, the boundary layer naturally becomes more unstable. The opposite occurs during the day. The concept though is overused, imo. The amount of instability generated from the cooling of the atmosphere is rather small. I've only seen a few cases over the last few years in all of the worldwide basins where I would say diurnal max played a significant role in cyclogenesis.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Unlike land, sea surface temperatures don't change (much) during the day/night. The atmosphere still radiates energy back to space once the sun goes down, however. As the atmosphere cools, but the sea surface stays constant temperature, the boundary layer naturally becomes more unstable. The opposite occurs during the day. The concept though is overused, imo. The amount of instability generated from the cooling of the atmosphere is rather small. I've only seen a few cases over the last few years in all of the worldwide basins where I would say diurnal max played a significant role in cyclogenesis.

Can you explain nocturnal core rain events? I've always guessed as outer thunderstorms weaken with loss of daytime heating, inflow into the remnant TC increases, and forced convergence forces the nocturnal rain event, but have never actually asked anyone.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Can you explain nocturnal core rain events? I've always guessed as outer thunderstorms weaken with loss of daytime heating, inflow into the remnant TC increases, and forced convergence forces the nocturnal rain event, but have never actually asked anyone.

I've never actually heard the term before. Is it a tropical phenomenon?

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I've never actually heard the term before. Is it a tropical phenomenon?

It is usually associated with inland TCs. They dump heavier rain overnight over a fairly small area.

http://ksatbrokennews.wordpress.com/2010/06/10/the-flood-of-2010/

http://texashurricane.wordpress.com/2011/06/09/tropical-storm-allison-10-years-later/

I first heard the term after Allison...

Link to comment
Share on other sites

It looks like most of the models now crash this thing into NI/HN before it can get to BZ.

Indeed... except that most models are initialized around 15N, and it looks that it's just south of 16N.... and the Euro just scrapes the cape.

cSdB5.png

OTOH, convection is paltry

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Indeed... except that most models are initialized around 15N, and it looks that it's just south of 16N.... and the Euro just scrapes the cape.

cSdB5.png

OTOH, convection is paltry

This. Once again, the Euro is the more accurate. Another thing to keep in mind is that models will have trouble initializing this properly until recon can fix a closed center.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Indeed... except that most models are initialized around 15N, and it looks that it's just south of 16N.... and the Euro just scrapes the cape.

Ah. OK.

OTOH, convection is paltry

That's putting it generously.

just hope it strengthens fast and pray that it gets dragged N of guidance

Yep. But I ain't holding my breath, let's just say that. <_<

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Josh you can do something fun. Here's a quick fantasy fun game for ya. Take different storms put them together to make the most strongest, most beautiful, most elegant storm that you ever want and make it landfall where the best place you would like to travel too.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Josh you can do something fun. Here's a quick fantasy fun game for ya. Take different storms put them together to make the most strongest, most beautiful, most elegant storm that you ever want and make it landfall where the best place you would like to travel too.

Ha ha, I'm so pathetic I've already done that. :D I just need the real thing now!

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Archived

This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.

×
×
  • Create New...