Juliancolton Posted August 17, 2011 Author Share Posted August 17, 2011 Here is a n00b question. Do we understand why tropical systems seem to undergo diurnal max/min? Diurnal convective cycles aren't limited to TCs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted August 17, 2011 Share Posted August 17, 2011 Here is a n00b question. Do we understand why tropical systems seem to undergo diurnal max/min? It has to do with the air temperature falling below the water temperature at night I believe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
metagraphica Posted August 17, 2011 Share Posted August 17, 2011 Looks like a TD to me...the low level clouds moving east that were missing before sure do look like they are there now. Rotation has tightened up. Outflow showing nicely to the north-west as well. Nice burst of convection near the supposed center. http://www.ssd.noaa....1/loop-vis.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted August 17, 2011 Share Posted August 17, 2011 Here is a n00b question. Do we understand why tropical systems seem to undergo diurnal max/min? Unlike land, sea surface temperatures don't change (much) during the day/night. The atmosphere still radiates energy back to space once the sun goes down, however. As the atmosphere cools, but the sea surface stays constant temperature, the boundary layer naturally becomes more unstable. The opposite occurs during the day. The concept though is overused, imo. The amount of instability generated from the cooling of the atmosphere is rather small. I've only seen a few cases over the last few years in all of the worldwide basins where I would say diurnal max played a significant role in cyclogenesis. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Max Posted August 17, 2011 Share Posted August 17, 2011 I'm hoping somehow this looks real good at 11pm tonight just so we can initiate some forecast points to this thing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hurricaneman Posted August 17, 2011 Share Posted August 17, 2011 The microwave of this system is pretty interesting, seems like the beginnings of a possible surface feature Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted August 17, 2011 Share Posted August 17, 2011 Unlike land, sea surface temperatures don't change (much) during the day/night. The atmosphere still radiates energy back to space once the sun goes down, however. As the atmosphere cools, but the sea surface stays constant temperature, the boundary layer naturally becomes more unstable. The opposite occurs during the day. The concept though is overused, imo. The amount of instability generated from the cooling of the atmosphere is rather small. I've only seen a few cases over the last few years in all of the worldwide basins where I would say diurnal max played a significant role in cyclogenesis. Can you explain nocturnal core rain events? I've always guessed as outer thunderstorms weaken with loss of daytime heating, inflow into the remnant TC increases, and forced convergence forces the nocturnal rain event, but have never actually asked anyone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted August 17, 2011 Share Posted August 17, 2011 Can you explain nocturnal core rain events? I've always guessed as outer thunderstorms weaken with loss of daytime heating, inflow into the remnant TC increases, and forced convergence forces the nocturnal rain event, but have never actually asked anyone. I've never actually heard the term before. Is it a tropical phenomenon? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jcwxguy Posted August 17, 2011 Share Posted August 17, 2011 Looking better by the hour Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted August 17, 2011 Share Posted August 17, 2011 Turning is vigorous, probably mid to mid low levels, but not at the surface, but it's probably very close to it. Now we just need a CDO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxeyeNH Posted August 17, 2011 Share Posted August 17, 2011 Yes, definately getting its act together. I would think this has a much better than 40% chance of developing now. Nice towers going up in the center and looping the vis the past 2 hours I definately see rotation begining. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted August 17, 2011 Share Posted August 17, 2011 I've never actually heard the term before. Is it a tropical phenomenon? It is usually associated with inland TCs. They dump heavier rain overnight over a fairly small area. http://ksatbrokennews.wordpress.com/2010/06/10/the-flood-of-2010/ http://texashurricane.wordpress.com/2011/06/09/tropical-storm-allison-10-years-later/ I first heard the term after Allison... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted August 17, 2011 Share Posted August 17, 2011 It looks like most of the models now crash this thing into NI/HN before it can get to BZ. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted August 17, 2011 Share Posted August 17, 2011 It looks like most of the models now crash this thing into NI/HN before it can get to BZ. Indeed... except that most models are initialized around 15N, and it looks that it's just south of 16N.... and the Euro just scrapes the cape. OTOH, convection is paltry Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted August 17, 2011 Share Posted August 17, 2011 Looking better by the hour you cant just put an L on a cloud and call it better Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PSUBlizzicane2007 Posted August 17, 2011 Share Posted August 17, 2011 Indeed... except that most models are initialized around 15N, and it looks that it's just south of 16N.... and the Euro just scrapes the cape. OTOH, convection is paltry This. Once again, the Euro is the more accurate. Another thing to keep in mind is that models will have trouble initializing this properly until recon can fix a closed center. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectKing Posted August 17, 2011 Share Posted August 17, 2011 Cherry.... with a lemon (20%) for our last 3 day model-cane...... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted August 17, 2011 Share Posted August 17, 2011 Cherry.... with a lemon (20% 10%) for our last 3 day model-cane...... FTFY Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectKing Posted August 18, 2011 Share Posted August 18, 2011 FTFY Thanks....not sure what happened....I know the graphic was put up by the NHC within a few seconds of my seeing it (because I checked it, then surfed the site for a couple seconds, then checked it again, and it changed) and swore it was 20%......but 10% it is......NBD in the scheme of things. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
k*** Posted August 18, 2011 Share Posted August 18, 2011 It looks like most of the models now crash this thing into NI/HN before it can get to BZ. just hope it strengthens fast and pray that it gets dragged N of guidance Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted August 18, 2011 Share Posted August 18, 2011 just hope it strengthens fast and pray that it gets dragged N of guidance A good diurnal max tonight would do wonders for this prospect. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted August 18, 2011 Share Posted August 18, 2011 The most dried-out looking cherry in history! Ugh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted August 18, 2011 Share Posted August 18, 2011 The most dried-out looking cherry in history! Ugh. Careful of what you wish for josh... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted August 18, 2011 Share Posted August 18, 2011 The most dried-out looking cherry in history! Ugh. Not as bad as landfalling Don though, so at least we have that going for it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted August 18, 2011 Share Posted August 18, 2011 Indeed... except that most models are initialized around 15N, and it looks that it's just south of 16N.... and the Euro just scrapes the cape. Ah. OK. OTOH, convection is paltry That's putting it generously. just hope it strengthens fast and pray that it gets dragged N of guidance Yep. But I ain't holding my breath, let's just say that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted August 18, 2011 Share Posted August 18, 2011 Careful of what you wish for josh... Not as bad as landfalling Don though, so at least we have that going for it. Don't even mention that deadbeat. Don has actually topped Fay on my list of most-reviled cyclone names. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Max Posted August 18, 2011 Share Posted August 18, 2011 Josh you can do something fun. Here's a quick fantasy fun game for ya. Take different storms put them together to make the most strongest, most beautiful, most elegant storm that you ever want and make it landfall where the best place you would like to travel too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted August 18, 2011 Share Posted August 18, 2011 Don't even mention that deadbeat. Don has actually topped Fay on my list of most-reviled cyclone names. Yeah D** was worse than F**. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted August 18, 2011 Share Posted August 18, 2011 Josh you can do something fun. Here's a quick fantasy fun game for ya. Take different storms put them together to make the most strongest, most beautiful, most elegant storm that you ever want and make it landfall where the best place you would like to travel too. Ha ha, I'm so pathetic I've already done that. I just need the real thing now! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted August 18, 2011 Share Posted August 18, 2011 I look at the WV imagery, and the environment looks a little dry-- but I've seen much worse. Why is this thing so bald?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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