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TS Harvey


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Here is a n00b question. Do we understand why tropical systems seem to undergo diurnal max/min?

Unlike land, sea surface temperatures don't change (much) during the day/night. The atmosphere still radiates energy back to space once the sun goes down, however. As the atmosphere cools, but the sea surface stays constant temperature, the boundary layer naturally becomes more unstable. The opposite occurs during the day. The concept though is overused, imo. The amount of instability generated from the cooling of the atmosphere is rather small. I've only seen a few cases over the last few years in all of the worldwide basins where I would say diurnal max played a significant role in cyclogenesis.

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Unlike land, sea surface temperatures don't change (much) during the day/night. The atmosphere still radiates energy back to space once the sun goes down, however. As the atmosphere cools, but the sea surface stays constant temperature, the boundary layer naturally becomes more unstable. The opposite occurs during the day. The concept though is overused, imo. The amount of instability generated from the cooling of the atmosphere is rather small. I've only seen a few cases over the last few years in all of the worldwide basins where I would say diurnal max played a significant role in cyclogenesis.

Can you explain nocturnal core rain events? I've always guessed as outer thunderstorms weaken with loss of daytime heating, inflow into the remnant TC increases, and forced convergence forces the nocturnal rain event, but have never actually asked anyone.

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Can you explain nocturnal core rain events? I've always guessed as outer thunderstorms weaken with loss of daytime heating, inflow into the remnant TC increases, and forced convergence forces the nocturnal rain event, but have never actually asked anyone.

I've never actually heard the term before. Is it a tropical phenomenon?

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I've never actually heard the term before. Is it a tropical phenomenon?

It is usually associated with inland TCs. They dump heavier rain overnight over a fairly small area.

http://ksatbrokennews.wordpress.com/2010/06/10/the-flood-of-2010/

http://texashurricane.wordpress.com/2011/06/09/tropical-storm-allison-10-years-later/

I first heard the term after Allison...

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It looks like most of the models now crash this thing into NI/HN before it can get to BZ.

Indeed... except that most models are initialized around 15N, and it looks that it's just south of 16N.... and the Euro just scrapes the cape.

cSdB5.png

OTOH, convection is paltry

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Indeed... except that most models are initialized around 15N, and it looks that it's just south of 16N.... and the Euro just scrapes the cape.

cSdB5.png

OTOH, convection is paltry

This. Once again, the Euro is the more accurate. Another thing to keep in mind is that models will have trouble initializing this properly until recon can fix a closed center.

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Indeed... except that most models are initialized around 15N, and it looks that it's just south of 16N.... and the Euro just scrapes the cape.

Ah. OK.

OTOH, convection is paltry

That's putting it generously.

just hope it strengthens fast and pray that it gets dragged N of guidance

Yep. But I ain't holding my breath, let's just say that. <_<

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Josh you can do something fun. Here's a quick fantasy fun game for ya. Take different storms put them together to make the most strongest, most beautiful, most elegant storm that you ever want and make it landfall where the best place you would like to travel too.

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Josh you can do something fun. Here's a quick fantasy fun game for ya. Take different storms put them together to make the most strongest, most beautiful, most elegant storm that you ever want and make it landfall where the best place you would like to travel too.

Ha ha, I'm so pathetic I've already done that. :D I just need the real thing now!

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