Srain Posted August 17, 2011 Share Posted August 17, 2011 that's a giant eye there Way too big and trekking along @ 15+ kts isn't helping either. It also appears to not be vertically stacked as well. Maybe near Honduras it will get its act together. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted August 17, 2011 Share Posted August 17, 2011 HDOB 1 on the invest is in from the airport at 17.4ºN and 64.5ºW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted August 17, 2011 Share Posted August 17, 2011 Don't know exactly how to describe it on my home made NASA floater, but the Southern curved band appears to have barfed an outflow that is filling the "eye". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted August 17, 2011 Share Posted August 17, 2011 Its definitely better organized then yesterday and there is some evidence that a low level circulation is trying to form, on both visible and microwave. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted August 17, 2011 Share Posted August 17, 2011 ASCAT is unimpressive, but visible looks really nice for an invest... it's probable the circulation hasn't closed at the surface, but it's quite evident in what appears to be the mid and mid/low levels... Fact is, that it's getting better organized, no doubt. Edit: Phil won me this time with the brief analysis Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
icebreaker5221 Posted August 17, 2011 Share Posted August 17, 2011 Its definitely better organized then yesterday and there is some evidence that a low level circulation is trying to form, on both visible and microwave. Yesterday we get the consolidated convection, but no real circulation. Today we get the circulation but unconsolidated convection. Tomorrow we get them both? In either case she may be running out of time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CUmet Posted August 17, 2011 Share Posted August 17, 2011 This is getting pretty close. I think this will close off a center by sometime tomorrow, perhaps tomorrow morning. It may not clear Honduras though, in which case a weak TS is most likely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted August 17, 2011 Share Posted August 17, 2011 If the early HDOBs are close, this has some serious issues with dry air... 172630 1447N 07410W 9769 00322 0138 +230 -078 132015 015 /// /// 03 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted August 17, 2011 Share Posted August 17, 2011 lame-o-cane #8? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted August 17, 2011 Share Posted August 17, 2011 ASCAT is unimpressive, but visible looks really nice for an invest... it's probable the circulation hasn't closed at the surface, but it's quite evident in what appears to be the mid and mid/low levels... Fact is, that it's getting better organized, no doubt. Edit: Phil won me this time with the brief analysis ASCAT hasn't always been the best this season. It showed Emily as an open wave several times while it was still in the East Caribbean while we also had recon observations showing west winds. Point is, winds on the southern half of the circulation are certainly not impressive due to the storm relative component canceling out the planetary moition. However, if you look at a storm relative loop, there is a very obvious circulation that looks to be becoming better defined. Storm Relative Visible Loop Edit: However, recon doesn't really show too much evidence for a circulation yet, looks like the circulation is still moving too fast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted August 17, 2011 Share Posted August 17, 2011 If the early HDOBs are close, this has some serious issues with dry air... 172630 1447N 07410W 9769 00322 0138 +230 -078 132015 015 /// /// 03 Kingston and Sto. Domingo 12Z soundings wouldn't seem to support negative dewpoints. Not sure what the deal is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jcwxguy Posted August 17, 2011 Share Posted August 17, 2011 up to 40% now with the 2pm update Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted August 17, 2011 Share Posted August 17, 2011 Progress! At a snail's pace-- but progress! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PSUBlizzicane2007 Posted August 17, 2011 Share Posted August 17, 2011 12Z Euro has what looks like future Harvey skirting the NE tip of Honduras then headed into Belize on a WNWly course. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted August 17, 2011 Share Posted August 17, 2011 12Z Euro has what looks like future Harvey skirting the NE tip of Honduras then headed into Belize on a WNWly course. Yep... seems like the system is gaining a bit of latitude today as well... small steps of progress. Visible imagery shows a pretty well defined mid-level circulation, but when you loop it, you still are hard pressed to find any low level cloud elements moving eastward. I'm with CUmet that this is still 18-24 hours from genesis, but as long as it keeps up this presentation, its only a matter of time. Edit: one last thing... note that we don't see very many outflow boundaries with the current convection. This also shows evidence that dry air its not having a major impact on the inner core of this system and we should continue to see steady development before genesis. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted August 17, 2011 Share Posted August 17, 2011 That's it-- I'm gettin' my ticket to BZE! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PSUBlizzicane2007 Posted August 17, 2011 Share Posted August 17, 2011 Yep... seems like the system is gaining a bit of latitude today as well... small steps of progress. Visible imagery shows a pretty well defined mid-level circulation, but when you loop it, you still are hard pressed to find any low level cloud elements moving eastward. I'm with CUmet that this is still 18-24 hours from genesis, but as long as it keeps up this presentation, its only a matter of time. 24 hours seems like a good bet.... the recon plane tomorrow will either find a TC or it will be very close to it. That's it-- I'm gettin' my ticket to BZE! Haha good luck... you know, if I were you, I'd look interestingly on Chetumal (I know you have fond memories there... but besides that!)... that entire area between Monkey River Town and Chetumal, really, is quite the potential area for landfall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadotony Posted August 17, 2011 Share Posted August 17, 2011 Progress! At a snail's pace-- but progress! Slow and steady wins the race. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CUmet Posted August 17, 2011 Share Posted August 17, 2011 Edit: However, recon doesn't really show too much evidence for a circulation yet, looks like the circulation is still moving too fast. There is little turning in the winds on the recon data, but my hypothesis is that they flew too far east and south. The storm's circulation appears to be quite small, so if you get too far from the storm-relative center (i.e. outside of the RMW in the storm-relative wind sense), the storm-relative circulation doesn't make much of a contribution to the total wind field. I suspect there would be more turning if they flew closer to the storm-relative center, which appears to be somewhere around 15.5/75.3. I saw this issue in one of the earliest flights in Emily, where there was very little turning, but the center closed off not too long afterwards. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted August 17, 2011 Share Posted August 17, 2011 There is little turning in the winds on the recon data, but my hypothesis is that they flew too far east and south. The storm's circulation appears to be quite small, so if you get too far from the storm-relative center (i.e. outside of the RMW in the storm-relative wind sense), the storm-relative circulation doesn't make much of a contribution to the total wind field. I suspect there would be more turning if they flew closer to the storm-relative center, which appears to be somewhere around 15.5/75.3. I saw this issue in one of the earliest flights in Emily, where there was very little turning, but the center closed off not too long afterwards. I was wondering about the flight path, too... I wasn't sure what they were aiming for. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted August 17, 2011 Share Posted August 17, 2011 Haha good luck... you know, if I were you, I'd look interestingly on Chetumal (I know you have fond memories there... but besides that!)... that entire area between Monkey River Town and Chetumal, really, is quite the potential area for landfall. In that case, BZE is the best destination, as Chetumal is just N of the BZ/MX, and border crossings are problematic. But, yeah, I do have some memories wrapped up in Chetumal. Slow and steady wins the race. Yep! I'd like to think this will end up being the winning tortoise of tropical cyclones. It really has improved today. There is little turning in the winds on the recon data, but my hypothesis is that they flew too far east and south. The storm's circulation appears to be quite small, so if you get too far from the storm-relative center (i.e. outside of the RMW in the storm-relative wind sense), the storm-relative circulation doesn't make much of a contribution to the total wind field. I suspect there would be more turning if they flew closer to the storm-relative center, which appears to be somewhere around 15.5/75.3. Are they making another pass at it? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CUmet Posted August 17, 2011 Share Posted August 17, 2011 Are they making another pass at it? Presumably they will, but I'm not sure what they're aiming for. There's absolutely zero chance this is closed, but flying closer to the "center" would be useful in knowing how close this is to closing off. (lol, I just used four different variations of the word "close" in that sentence) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cdawgga1 Posted August 17, 2011 Share Posted August 17, 2011 In that case, BZE is the best destination, as Chetumal is just N of the BZ/MX, and border crossings are problematic. But, yeah, I do have some memories wrapped up in Chetumal. Yep! I'd like to think this will end up being the winning tortoise of tropical cyclones. It really has improved today. Are they making another pass at it? Is there a link to the best site to follow recon as it happens? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted August 17, 2011 Share Posted August 17, 2011 There is little turning in the winds on the recon data, but my hypothesis is that they flew too far east and south. The storm's circulation appears to be quite small, so if you get too far from the storm-relative center (i.e. outside of the RMW in the storm-relative wind sense), the storm-relative circulation doesn't make much of a contribution to the total wind field. I suspect there would be more turning if they flew closer to the storm-relative center, which appears to be somewhere around 15.5/75.3. I saw this issue in one of the earliest flights in Emily, where there was very little turning, but the center closed off not too long afterwards. Looks like they are heading straight north now to check out the suspected center. I was wondering about the flight path, too... I wasn't sure what they were aiming for. Yea they defiantly missed the "core" on that first pass, but there wasn't too much southerly flow either and the strongest winds were around 25-30 knots. Are they making another pass at it? Yep, but it doesn't look like they are finding any west winds atm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PSUBlizzicane2007 Posted August 17, 2011 Share Posted August 17, 2011 Looks like they are heading straight north now to check out the suspected center. Yea they defiantly missed the "core" on that first pass, but there wasn't too much southerly flow either and the strongest winds were around 25-30 knots. Yep, but it doesn't look like they are finding any west winds atm. I'm guessing they saw something interesting on radar, so they decided to check it out. Probably some sort of mesovorticity. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted August 17, 2011 Share Posted August 17, 2011 Is there a link to the best site to follow recon as it happens? If you have google earth, I'd recommend downloading the Live Reconnaissance kmz file in Google Earth Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted August 17, 2011 Share Posted August 17, 2011 Is there a link to the best site to follow recon as it happens? Also, you can use this: http://tropicalatlantic.com/recon/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Max Posted August 17, 2011 Share Posted August 17, 2011 This disturbance seems to like the daytime hours more than the nighttime hours when it relates to making progress towards closing off a low. Hopefully tonight we see this thing really use the diurnal max tonight so we can get a named storm or a depression by morning tomorrow! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wannabehippie Posted August 17, 2011 Share Posted August 17, 2011 Here is a n00b question. Do we understand why tropical systems seem to undergo diurnal max/min? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted August 17, 2011 Share Posted August 17, 2011 Looks like some circulation to me. Maybe high probe at 8 pm? http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/flash-vis.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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