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TS Harvey


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ASCAT is unimpressive, but visible looks really nice for an invest... it's probable the circulation hasn't closed at the surface, but it's quite evident in what appears to be the mid and mid/low levels... Fact is, that it's getting better organized, no doubt.

Edit: Phil won me this time with the brief analysis

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Its definitely better organized then yesterday and there is some evidence that a low level circulation is trying to form, on both visible and microwave.

Yesterday we get the consolidated convection, but no real circulation. Today we get the circulation but unconsolidated convection.

Tomorrow we get them both?

In either case she may be running out of time.

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ASCAT is unimpressive, but visible looks really nice for an invest... it's probable the circulation hasn't closed at the surface, but it's quite evident in what appears to be the mid and mid/low levels... Fact is, that it's getting better organized, no doubt.

Edit: Phil won me this time with the brief analysis

ASCAT hasn't always been the best this season. It showed Emily as an open wave several times while it was still in the East Caribbean while we also had recon observations showing west winds. Point is, winds on the southern half of the circulation are certainly not impressive due to the storm relative component canceling out the planetary moition. However, if you look at a storm relative loop, there is a very obvious circulation that looks to be becoming better defined.

Storm Relative Visible Loop

Edit: However, recon doesn't really show too much evidence for a circulation yet, looks like the circulation is still moving too fast.

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12Z Euro has what looks like future Harvey skirting the NE tip of Honduras then headed into Belize on a WNWly course.

Yep... seems like the system is gaining a bit of latitude today as well... small steps of progress.

Visible imagery shows a pretty well defined mid-level circulation, but when you loop it, you still are hard pressed to find any low level cloud elements moving eastward. I'm with CUmet that this is still 18-24 hours from genesis, but as long as it keeps up this presentation, its only a matter of time.

3328knt.jpg

Edit: one last thing... note that we don't see very many outflow boundaries with the current convection. This also shows evidence that dry air its not having a major impact on the inner core of this system and we should continue to see steady development before genesis.

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Yep... seems like the system is gaining a bit of latitude today as well... small steps of progress.

Visible imagery shows a pretty well defined mid-level circulation, but when you loop it, you still are hard pressed to find any low level cloud elements moving eastward. I'm with CUmet that this is still 18-24 hours from genesis, but as long as it keeps up this presentation, its only a matter of time.

24 hours seems like a good bet.... the recon plane tomorrow will either find a TC or it will be very close to it.

That's it-- I'm gettin' my ticket to BZE! :sun:

Haha good luck... you know, if I were you, I'd look interestingly on Chetumal (I know you have fond memories there... but besides that!)... that entire area between Monkey River Town and Chetumal, really, is quite the potential area for landfall.

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Edit: However, recon doesn't really show too much evidence for a circulation yet, looks like the circulation is still moving too fast.

There is little turning in the winds on the recon data, but my hypothesis is that they flew too far east and south. The storm's circulation appears to be quite small, so if you get too far from the storm-relative center (i.e. outside of the RMW in the storm-relative wind sense), the storm-relative circulation doesn't make much of a contribution to the total wind field. I suspect there would be more turning if they flew closer to the storm-relative center, which appears to be somewhere around 15.5/75.3.

I saw this issue in one of the earliest flights in Emily, where there was very little turning, but the center closed off not too long afterwards.

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There is little turning in the winds on the recon data, but my hypothesis is that they flew too far east and south. The storm's circulation appears to be quite small, so if you get too far from the storm-relative center (i.e. outside of the RMW in the storm-relative wind sense), the storm-relative circulation doesn't make much of a contribution to the total wind field. I suspect there would be more turning if they flew closer to the storm-relative center, which appears to be somewhere around 15.5/75.3.

I saw this issue in one of the earliest flights in Emily, where there was very little turning, but the center closed off not too long afterwards.

I was wondering about the flight path, too... I wasn't sure what they were aiming for.

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Haha good luck... you know, if I were you, I'd look interestingly on Chetumal (I know you have fond memories there... but besides that!)... that entire area between Monkey River Town and Chetumal, really, is quite the potential area for landfall.

In that case, BZE is the best destination, as Chetumal is just N of the BZ/MX, and border crossings are problematic.

But, yeah, I do have some memories wrapped up in Chetumal. :)

Slow and steady wins the race.

Yep! I'd like to think this will end up being the winning tortoise of tropical cyclones. It really has improved today.

There is little turning in the winds on the recon data, but my hypothesis is that they flew too far east and south. The storm's circulation appears to be quite small, so if you get too far from the storm-relative center (i.e. outside of the RMW in the storm-relative wind sense), the storm-relative circulation doesn't make much of a contribution to the total wind field. I suspect there would be more turning if they flew closer to the storm-relative center, which appears to be somewhere around 15.5/75.3.

Are they making another pass at it?

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Are they making another pass at it?

Presumably they will, but I'm not sure what they're aiming for. There's absolutely zero chance this is closed, but flying closer to the "center" would be useful in knowing how close this is to closing off.

(lol, I just used four different variations of the word "close" in that sentence)

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In that case, BZE is the best destination, as Chetumal is just N of the BZ/MX, and border crossings are problematic.

But, yeah, I do have some memories wrapped up in Chetumal. :)

Yep! I'd like to think this will end up being the winning tortoise of tropical cyclones. It really has improved today.

Are they making another pass at it?

Is there a link to the best site to follow recon as it happens?

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There is little turning in the winds on the recon data, but my hypothesis is that they flew too far east and south. The storm's circulation appears to be quite small, so if you get too far from the storm-relative center (i.e. outside of the RMW in the storm-relative wind sense), the storm-relative circulation doesn't make much of a contribution to the total wind field. I suspect there would be more turning if they flew closer to the storm-relative center, which appears to be somewhere around 15.5/75.3.

I saw this issue in one of the earliest flights in Emily, where there was very little turning, but the center closed off not too long afterwards.

Looks like they are heading straight north now to check out the suspected center.

I was wondering about the flight path, too... I wasn't sure what they were aiming for.

Yea they defiantly missed the "core" on that first pass, but there wasn't too much southerly flow either and the strongest winds were around 25-30 knots.

Are they making another pass at it?

Yep, but it doesn't look like they are finding any west winds atm.

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Looks like they are heading straight north now to check out the suspected center.

Yea they defiantly missed the "core" on that first pass, but there wasn't too much southerly flow either and the strongest winds were around 25-30 knots.

Yep, but it doesn't look like they are finding any west winds atm.

I'm guessing they saw something interesting on radar, so they decided to check it out. Probably some sort of mesovorticity.

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This disturbance seems to like the daytime hours more than the nighttime hours when it relates to making progress towards closing off a low. Hopefully tonight we see this thing really use the diurnal max tonight so we can get a named storm or a depression by morning tomorrow!

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