Juliancolton Posted August 10, 2011 Share Posted August 10, 2011 BEGIN NHC_ATCF invest_al932011.invest Have at it. Looking like the best potential system so far this season. AL, 93, 2011081018, , BEST, 0, 97N, 157W, 20, 1010, DB, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1011, 150, 45, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, S, Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scorpion Posted August 10, 2011 Share Posted August 10, 2011 First plots WHXX01 KWBC 101909 CHGHUR TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 1909 UTC WED AUG 10 2011 DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS. PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION. ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL932011) 20110810 1800 UTC ...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS... 110810 1800 110811 0600 110811 1800 110812 0600 LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON BAMS 9.7N 15.7W 10.2N 18.7W 10.9N 21.7W 11.8N 24.7W BAMD 9.7N 15.7W 9.9N 18.8W 10.3N 21.8W 10.7N 24.4W BAMM 9.7N 15.7W 10.1N 18.7W 10.8N 21.9W 11.5N 24.9W LBAR 9.7N 15.7W 10.0N 18.7W 10.6N 22.2W 11.3N 25.7W SHIP 20KTS 23KTS 30KTS 39KTS DSHP 20KTS 23KTS 30KTS 39KTS ...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS... 110812 1800 110813 1800 110814 1800 110815 1800 LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON BAMS 12.5N 27.9W 12.5N 35.4W 10.9N 42.7W 10.0N 47.9W BAMD 11.2N 26.8W 12.3N 32.3W 14.0N 37.9W 16.1N 42.6W BAMM 12.2N 27.9W 12.9N 34.6W 13.0N 41.4W 13.7N 47.7W LBAR 12.0N 29.2W 13.0N 35.9W 12.7N 41.7W 12.8N 46.6W SHIP 49KTS 64KTS 73KTS 92KTS DSHP 49KTS 64KTS 73KTS 92KTS ...INITIAL CONDITIONS... LATCUR = 9.7N LONCUR = 15.7W DIRCUR = 275DEG SPDCUR = 11KT LATM12 = 9.4N LONM12 = 13.6W DIRM12 = 278DEG SPDM12 = 11KT LATM24 = 9.2N LONM24 = 11.1W WNDCUR = 20KT RMAXWD = 45NM WNDM12 = 20KT CENPRS = 1010MB OUTPRS = 1011MB OUTRAD = 150NM SDEPTH = S RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted August 10, 2011 Share Posted August 10, 2011 Have at it. Looking like the best potential system so far this season. Agreed. I'm going to watch this one. It's got a nice look and it's at a deep latitude-- and the models aren't suggesting an automatic recurve. I don't like the N bend in the tracks late in the period, but it doesn't look hopeless. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
k*** Posted August 10, 2011 Share Posted August 10, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scorpion Posted August 10, 2011 Share Posted August 10, 2011 At least the Euro seems to do something with it, even though it recurves Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted August 10, 2011 Author Share Posted August 10, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Riptide Posted August 10, 2011 Share Posted August 10, 2011 The beast from the east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Floydbuster Posted August 10, 2011 Share Posted August 10, 2011 Could be a race for which one becomes Franklin or Gert. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted August 10, 2011 Share Posted August 10, 2011 My guess is since that it is on the edge of the GOES satellite range, it could not be used for some of the RI predictors. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
calamity Posted August 10, 2011 Share Posted August 10, 2011 Yes, 93L is fairly nice and consolidated. Interesting times ahead. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CUmet Posted August 10, 2011 Share Posted August 10, 2011 I'm starting to think that 93L will actually become a TD/TS before 92L. It's frankly better organized, and the GFS is quite a bit more enthusiastic in the short term about 93L. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted August 10, 2011 Share Posted August 10, 2011 I'm starting to think that 93L will actually become a TD/TS before 92L. It's frankly better organized, and the GFS is quite a bit more enthusiastic in the short term about 93L. What are your initial thoughts Re: long-term track? Fish, island-hopper, or Caribbean Cruiser? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted August 10, 2011 Author Share Posted August 10, 2011 I'm starting to think that 93L will actually become a TD/TS before 92L. It's frankly better organized, and the GFS is quite a bit more enthusiastic in the short term about 93L. If 93L forms and becomes dominant (or 92L I guess), are they close enough that the stronger system will choke out the other one? It's hard to tell for me based on what limited sat. imagery I have access to. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CUmet Posted August 10, 2011 Share Posted August 10, 2011 What are your initial thoughts Re: long-term track? Fish, island-hopper, or Caribbean Cruiser? Based on the magnitude of ridging over the Central Atlantic over the next 4-5 days, this should stay relatively far south during that time. If it stays relatively weak, that may help some too. I would say that out of all the well-organized waves that occur this far east, this one has an above-average chance of impacting land. The uncertainty at this point is huge given that it hasn't developed yet and we're talking about the long-range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CUmet Posted August 10, 2011 Share Posted August 10, 2011 If 93L forms and becomes dominant (or 92L I guess), are they close enough that the stronger system will choke out the other one? It's hard to tell for me based on what limited sat. imagery I have access to. The distance between them is large enough for them to not detrimentally impact each other. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted August 10, 2011 Share Posted August 10, 2011 Based on the magnitude of ridging over the Central Atlantic over the next 4-5 days, this should stay relatively far south during that time. If it stays relatively weak, that may help some too. I would say that out of all the well-organized waves that occur this far east, this one has an above-average chance of impacting land. The uncertainty at this point is huge given that it hasn't developed yet and we're talking about the long-range. Gotcha-- thanks. That's all I was looking for-- just a broad hunch. Like you, I'm finding this more interesting than any other disturbance so far this season because of the combo of 1) appearance, 2) latitude, and 3) the early model runs, which don't scream fish. It's 10 August-- just when we should really start having interesting systems to track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted August 10, 2011 Share Posted August 10, 2011 This thread seems like it's going OT. Let's keep it on 93L. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted August 10, 2011 Share Posted August 10, 2011 18z gfs has 2 storms hitting the us at the same time which one are you going to chase josh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 10, 2011 Share Posted August 10, 2011 Looks like Rainstorm initialized the 18z GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycsnow Posted August 10, 2011 Share Posted August 10, 2011 Everyone whose hoping for a landfall along the EC you don't even need one to see some hurricane effects, rip currents, waves, costal flooding all this is dangerous and that's without a direct impact! So just cause it don't make landfall don't mean you can't experience some hurricane effects Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow_Miser Posted August 10, 2011 Share Posted August 10, 2011 I say cat 5 major east coast strike... and my analysis is: We are way overdue. As I learned from some experienced Mets, there is no such thing as "overdue" in meteorological terms, since in order to get a hurricane to hit the east coast, it is based off of the current weather patterns, and not how long a hurricane has hit the East Coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 10, 2011 Share Posted August 10, 2011 As I learned from some experienced Mets, there is no such thing as "overdue" in meteorological terms, since in order to get a hurricane to hit the east coast, it is based off of the current weather patterns, and not how long a hurricane has hit the East Coast. That word is so wrongly applied. Canes hit the coast in waves sometimes. One area can go years without a landfall, and then have 2-3 in one year. You can't just divide the number of landfall by years and say it's been 20 years and we are overdue. It doesn't work like that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycsnow Posted August 10, 2011 Share Posted August 10, 2011 Looks like Rainstorm initialized the 18z GFS. Lmao just saw it, one on each side of FL Btw can someone help I've been 5posted since the minute I signed up a year ago, who do I speak to on getting it removed ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PDIII Posted August 10, 2011 Share Posted August 10, 2011 just out of curiosity , where do you live ??? Well this is my last post here until I come up with something more on topic cause I am brand new to this and I didnt know the rules... I said something positive and upbeat with a little bit of optimism and I was called a troll (which I had to google) and then I kinda tried to justify what I was saying and explained that I wasnt trying to post "...junk posts" just to rile other users and cause dissent..." (thats the definition of troll returned in my google search). I live in Catonsville, MD (near Baltimore). Sorry everyone for my bad post Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
matthewweatherwatcher Posted August 10, 2011 Share Posted August 10, 2011 93L appears to be very well developed as of right now with a strong mid level circulation, and good outflow, so chances of developing appear to be good. Gfs, ecmwf forecast it to head westward under a strengthening azores ridge...The overall trend supports a fairly southward track near 10-13 north throughout the next 96-120 hours. I'd give it 70 percent chance at becoming a tropical cyclone over the next 48 hours, and believe if the low level easterly's don't slice through it like Emily, that it could strengthen into a fairly strong system. 92L should limit sal and dry air ahead of it, so that doesn't appear to be much of a problem and should help in its development into a tropical cyclone. I'd watch this as it could get across if the nao turns positive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted August 10, 2011 Share Posted August 10, 2011 Let's see if we can get back on track here. 18Z track looks something like a pm I shared with Josh on Sunday...fwiw... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted August 10, 2011 Share Posted August 10, 2011 I'm really like that straight-W vibe. Niceynice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunder Road Posted August 11, 2011 Share Posted August 11, 2011 Where do you find the tropical models for 93L? The Colorado State page I have bookmarked only shows 92L.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycsnow Posted August 11, 2011 Share Posted August 11, 2011 Where do you find the tropical models for 93L? The Colorado State page I have bookmarked only shows 92L.... Weather underground Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cory Posted August 11, 2011 Share Posted August 11, 2011 Here's a 3-member ensemble, all valid at 14/12Z. The first image shows the result of excluding cloud ice processes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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