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TS Harvey


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First plots

WHXX01 KWBC 101909

CHGHUR

TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE

NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL

1909 UTC WED AUG 10 2011

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.

PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE

AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL932011) 20110810 1800 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...

110810 1800 110811 0600 110811 1800 110812 0600

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON

BAMS 9.7N 15.7W 10.2N 18.7W 10.9N 21.7W 11.8N 24.7W

BAMD 9.7N 15.7W 9.9N 18.8W 10.3N 21.8W 10.7N 24.4W

BAMM 9.7N 15.7W 10.1N 18.7W 10.8N 21.9W 11.5N 24.9W

LBAR 9.7N 15.7W 10.0N 18.7W 10.6N 22.2W 11.3N 25.7W

SHIP 20KTS 23KTS 30KTS 39KTS

DSHP 20KTS 23KTS 30KTS 39KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...

110812 1800 110813 1800 110814 1800 110815 1800

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON

BAMS 12.5N 27.9W 12.5N 35.4W 10.9N 42.7W 10.0N 47.9W

BAMD 11.2N 26.8W 12.3N 32.3W 14.0N 37.9W 16.1N 42.6W

BAMM 12.2N 27.9W 12.9N 34.6W 13.0N 41.4W 13.7N 47.7W

LBAR 12.0N 29.2W 13.0N 35.9W 12.7N 41.7W 12.8N 46.6W

SHIP 49KTS 64KTS 73KTS 92KTS

DSHP 49KTS 64KTS 73KTS 92KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...

LATCUR = 9.7N LONCUR = 15.7W DIRCUR = 275DEG SPDCUR = 11KT

LATM12 = 9.4N LONM12 = 13.6W DIRM12 = 278DEG SPDM12 = 11KT

LATM24 = 9.2N LONM24 = 11.1W

WNDCUR = 20KT RMAXWD = 45NM WNDM12 = 20KT

CENPRS = 1010MB OUTPRS = 1011MB OUTRAD = 150NM SDEPTH = S

RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

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I'm starting to think that 93L will actually become a TD/TS before 92L. It's frankly better organized, and the GFS is quite a bit more enthusiastic in the short term about 93L.

If 93L forms and becomes dominant (or 92L I guess), are they close enough that the stronger system will choke out the other one? It's hard to tell for me based on what limited sat. imagery I have access to.

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What are your initial thoughts Re: long-term track? Fish, island-hopper, or Caribbean Cruiser?

Based on the magnitude of ridging over the Central Atlantic over the next 4-5 days, this should stay relatively far south during that time. If it stays relatively weak, that may help some too. I would say that out of all the well-organized waves that occur this far east, this one has an above-average chance of impacting land. The uncertainty at this point is huge given that it hasn't developed yet and we're talking about the long-range.

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If 93L forms and becomes dominant (or 92L I guess), are they close enough that the stronger system will choke out the other one? It's hard to tell for me based on what limited sat. imagery I have access to.

The distance between them is large enough for them to not detrimentally impact each other.

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Based on the magnitude of ridging over the Central Atlantic over the next 4-5 days, this should stay relatively far south during that time. If it stays relatively weak, that may help some too. I would say that out of all the well-organized waves that occur this far east, this one has an above-average chance of impacting land. The uncertainty at this point is huge given that it hasn't developed yet and we're talking about the long-range.

Gotcha-- thanks. That's all I was looking for-- just a broad hunch.

Like you, I'm finding this more interesting than any other disturbance so far this season because of the combo of 1) appearance, 2) latitude, and 3) the early model runs, which don't scream fish.

It's 10 August-- just when we should really start having interesting systems to track.

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Everyone whose hoping for a landfall along the EC you don't even need one to see some hurricane effects, rip currents, waves, costal flooding all this is dangerous and that's without a direct impact! So just cause it don't make landfall don't mean you can't experience some hurricane effects

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I say cat 5 major east coast strike... and my analysis is:

We are way overdue.

As I learned from some experienced Mets, there is no such thing as "overdue" in meteorological terms, since in order to get a hurricane to hit the east coast, it is based off of the current weather patterns, and not how long a hurricane has hit the East Coast.

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As I learned from some experienced Mets, there is no such thing as "overdue" in meteorological terms, since in order to get a hurricane to hit the east coast, it is based off of the current weather patterns, and not how long a hurricane has hit the East Coast.

That word is so wrongly applied. Canes hit the coast in waves sometimes. One area can go years without a landfall, and then have 2-3 in one year. You can't just divide the number of landfall by years and say it's been 20 years and we are overdue. It doesn't work like that.

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just out of curiosity , where do you live ???

Well this is my last post here until I come up with something more on topic cause I am brand new to this and I didnt know the rules... I said something positive and upbeat with a little bit of optimism and I was called a troll (which I had to google) and then I kinda tried to justify what I was saying and explained that I wasnt trying to post "...junk posts" just to rile other users and cause dissent..." (thats the definition of troll returned in my google search).

I live in Catonsville, MD (near Baltimore).

Sorry everyone for my bad post :(

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93L appears to be very well developed as of right now with a strong mid level circulation, and good outflow, so chances of developing appear to be good. Gfs, ecmwf forecast it to head westward under a strengthening azores ridge...The overall trend supports a fairly southward track near 10-13 north throughout the next 96-120 hours. I'd give it 70 percent chance at becoming a tropical cyclone over the next 48 hours, and believe if the low level easterly's don't slice through it like Emily, that it could strengthen into a fairly strong system. 92L should limit sal and dry air ahead of it, so that doesn't appear to be much of a problem and should help in its development into a tropical cyclone.

I'd watch this as it could get across if the nao turns positive.

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