WinterWxLuvr Posted August 14, 2011 Share Posted August 14, 2011 I disagree that this storm is a bust. Maybe in a widespread soaking sense but it still produced for some. JFK got all time daily rain. Of course that's no solace in winter so maybe not now either. You're right. It's not. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
joeride Posted August 14, 2011 Share Posted August 14, 2011 This does remind me of winter, you look forward to a big event but it always seems to be other places than "IMBY" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted August 14, 2011 Author Share Posted August 14, 2011 You're right. It's not. Today definitely underproduced here. Always was a threat tho with the precip pattern the models had. Hopefully it's at least a sign it can still try to rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted August 14, 2011 Share Posted August 14, 2011 The HRRR (not so reliable, I know) didnt have the line here till 7pm... so just wait Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted August 14, 2011 Share Posted August 14, 2011 This does remind me of winter, you look forward to a big event but it always seems to be other places than "IMBY" And the models have a real knack for forecasting the big event to be here first and then backing away from it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted August 14, 2011 Share Posted August 14, 2011 Today definitely underproduced here. Always was a threat tho with the precip pattern the models had. Hopefully it's at least a sign it can still try to rain. Yeah. I'm guilty of being suckered on this one. The other night when the models (mainly NAM) had copious precip, I kept looking at the sim radar and never did see any widespread areas of precip, just lines. I though, well, the precip forecast must be from storms and that made me feel uneasy then. I brushed it offf, and tried to be confident in rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
joeride Posted August 14, 2011 Share Posted August 14, 2011 The orchards and farmers around here are hurt'n. We need some massive rains without wind. The late corn and hay crops aren't producing, we've been irrigating but that water is getting low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted August 14, 2011 Share Posted August 14, 2011 meh (5pm) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted August 14, 2011 Author Share Posted August 14, 2011 Yeah. I'm guilty of being suckered on this one. The other night when the models (mainly NAM) had copious precip, I kept looking at the sim radar and never did see any widespread areas of precip, just lines. I though, well, the precip forecast must be from storms and that made me feel uneasy then. I brushed it offf, and tried to be confident in rain. Part of it is never fully trusting QPF placement especially in convective-driven scenarios. It is still frustrating tho, especially as a pretend forecaster... If nothing else I wonder why we always get suckered in even if there is a pretty solid pattern around here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BethesdaWX Posted August 14, 2011 Share Posted August 14, 2011 86.4 with full sun, I just want some f**king rain. Heat index is 93 but it felt worse to me while mowing the lawn (first time since late June). Somehow weeds don't mind the drought. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BethesdaWX Posted August 14, 2011 Share Posted August 14, 2011 Some towers well to the SW now, can almost see them blooming. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted August 14, 2011 Author Share Posted August 14, 2011 I will say LWX hoisting a flood watch at 4am after the NAM came out was akin or worse than the WSW we got for the Boxing Day storm. Sometimes you gotta wonder at least a little. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mrs.J Posted August 14, 2011 Share Posted August 14, 2011 Just went out for a walk because I thought is was decent out. Nasty and sticky are the 2 words that come to mind. Temp says 90 on my station. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted August 14, 2011 Author Share Posted August 14, 2011 Some towers well to the SW now, can almost see them blooming. there's at least a hint of a low already transferred toward the coast. im still not sure why there is even much talk of svr etc up this way. there's a decent amount of shear but that doesnt matter much if you're missing other ingredients. atmos still juiced of course but i think anything will tend to be pulsers and we're heading out of peak heating soon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted August 14, 2011 Author Share Posted August 14, 2011 i've been getting continual very small popups over me but it's actually rained much of the last hour or so now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted August 14, 2011 Author Share Posted August 14, 2011 though looking outside the street is mainly dry under the trees so i guess it isnt raining much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted August 14, 2011 Share Posted August 14, 2011 Capital weather gang lost alot of credibility from normal people today Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted August 14, 2011 Share Posted August 14, 2011 LWX afternoon disco still says a few severe storm possible... damaging wind gusts main threat but isolated tornado cannot be ruled out this evening Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted August 14, 2011 Author Share Posted August 14, 2011 Capital weather gang lost alot of credibility from normal people today so that means you're still on board i guess Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted August 14, 2011 Share Posted August 14, 2011 MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1977 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0247 PM CDT SUN AUG 14 2011 AREAS AFFECTED...NRN VA...ERN WV PANHANDLE... AND NWRN MD INCLUDING PARTS OF MD PANHANDLE CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE VALID 141947Z - 142045Z A SVR TSTM WATCH MAY BE NEEDED FOR THE LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING TO THE NORTH OF WW 779 ACROSS PART OF NRN VA...ERN WV PANHANDLE... AND NWRN MD INCLUDING PART OF THE MD PANHANDLE. AT 1930Z...REGIONAL RADAR IMAGERY SHOWED A BROKEN LINE/CLUSTER OF STORMS MOVING EWD THROUGH CENTRAL/ERN WV...AND ADDITIONAL STORMS DEVELOPING WITHIN THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF FAR WRN VA TO SOUTH CENTRAL AND CENTRAL PA. DESPITE GENERALLY WEAK MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES...A CORRIDOR OF STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES /SFC-3 KM OF 7.5-8.5 C PER KM/ AND MODERATE INSTABILITY ALONG AND IN LEE OF THE APPALACHIANS ACROSS THE DISCUSSION AREA ARE SUPPORTING THIS CONVECTION. AN INCREASE IN SWLY MIDLEVEL WINDS /40-45 KT/ PER WSR-88D VAD AT STERLING VA IS RESULTING IN EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR OF 30-40 KT FROM NRN VA TO SRN PA SUGGESTING A GREATER POTENTIAL FOR STORMS TO ORGANIZE AS THEY DEVELOP AND OR MOVE IN LEE OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN. DEEP LAYER ASCENT ATTENDANT TO A MIDLEVEL IMPULSE LOCATED OVER CENTRAL PA...AND CORRIDOR OF ASCENT EXTENDING FROM WV TO NERN TN ATTENDANT TO THE UPPER OH VALLEY SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL EACH SUPPORT ADDITIONAL CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IN THE SHORT TERM. ..PETERS.. 08/14/2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
smokeybandit Posted August 14, 2011 Share Posted August 14, 2011 These little storms are adding up...my sump pump just came on for the first time since May. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sparky Posted August 14, 2011 Share Posted August 14, 2011 I actually have rather green grass all over despite the dry, hot July. The first half of August has given just enough in several episodes to green up everything. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted August 14, 2011 Share Posted August 14, 2011 Part of it is never fully trusting QPF placement especially in convective-driven scenarios. It is still frustrating tho, especially as a pretend forecaster... If nothing else I wonder why we always get suckered in even if there is a pretty solid pattern around here. We really need a full-out dynamically-organized system in order to get the widespread high QPFs around here it seems... the UL vort disorganization, weak LL winds and meh ML lapse rates definitely need better synoptic support to get us organized storms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted August 14, 2011 Share Posted August 14, 2011 Left South Jersey at 69* and heavy rain with thunder about four hours ago, and drove through some serious downpours on the way down. Got home and it's nearly 90* and humid with fairly dry ground all around. Hoping for a little bit of something this afternoon... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC_WX Posted August 14, 2011 Share Posted August 14, 2011 meh (5pm) That map is fantasy. Rarely has VA seen widespread radar saturation like that all summer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted August 14, 2011 Author Share Posted August 14, 2011 We really need a full-out dynamically-organized system in order to get the widespread high QPFs around here it seems... the UL vort disorganization, weak LL winds and meh ML lapse rates definitely need better synoptic support to get us organized storms. Yeah, that's probably true. The northern stream is almost always a problem around here as well. Still more interesting weather than we've had in a while I guess, and it's not yet over so can't fully judge (at least sans the time constraint forecasts). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted August 14, 2011 Share Posted August 14, 2011 Decent cell building N of Franklin, WV Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted August 14, 2011 Share Posted August 14, 2011 Yeah, that's probably true. The northern stream is almost always a problem around here as well. Still more interesting weather than we've had in a while I guess, and it's not yet over so can't fully judge (at least sans the time constraint forecasts). Always a valid point. I have been watching the few showers in and around the beltway... hoping some bigger stuff gets going in the next hour or two. 20z SPC update translated the 30% wind probs further west over the mountains and took it out in the eastern areas... still looking like a bullish forecast overall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mrs.J Posted August 14, 2011 Share Posted August 14, 2011 MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1977 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0247 PM CDT SUN AUG 14 2011 AREAS AFFECTED...NRN VA...ERN WV PANHANDLE... AND NWRN MD INCLUDING PARTS OF MD PANHANDLE CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE VALID 141947Z - 142045Z A SVR TSTM WATCH MAY BE NEEDED FOR THE LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING TO THE NORTH OF WW 779 ACROSS PART OF NRN VA...ERN WV PANHANDLE... AND NWRN MD INCLUDING PART OF THE MD PANHANDLE. AT 1930Z...REGIONAL RADAR IMAGERY SHOWED A BROKEN LINE/CLUSTER OF STORMS MOVING EWD THROUGH CENTRAL/ERN WV...AND ADDITIONAL STORMS DEVELOPING WITHIN THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF FAR WRN VA TO SOUTH CENTRAL AND CENTRAL PA. DESPITE GENERALLY WEAK MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES...A CORRIDOR OF STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES /SFC-3 KM OF 7.5-8.5 C PER KM/ AND MODERATE INSTABILITY ALONG AND IN LEE OF THE APPALACHIANS ACROSS THE DISCUSSION AREA ARE SUPPORTING THIS CONVECTION. AN INCREASE IN SWLY MIDLEVEL WINDS /40-45 KT/ PER WSR-88D VAD AT STERLING VA IS RESULTING IN EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR OF 30-40 KT FROM NRN VA TO SRN PA SUGGESTING A GREATER POTENTIAL FOR STORMS TO ORGANIZE AS THEY DEVELOP AND OR MOVE IN LEE OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN. DEEP LAYER ASCENT ATTENDANT TO A MIDLEVEL IMPULSE LOCATED OVER CENTRAL PA...AND CORRIDOR OF ASCENT EXTENDING FROM WV TO NERN TN ATTENDANT TO THE UPPER OH VALLEY SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL EACH SUPPORT ADDITIONAL CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IN THE SHORT TERM. ..PETERS.. 08/14/2011 Hummm my neck of the woods... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted August 14, 2011 Author Share Posted August 14, 2011 Always a valid point. I have been watching the few showers in and around the beltway... hoping some bigger stuff gets going in the next hour or two. 20z SPC update translated the 30% wind probs further west over the mountains and took it out in the eastern areas... still looking like a bullish forecast overall. radar looks ok for more rain at least but the shadow livith on the 18z nam Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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