Jump to content
  • Member Statistics

    17,586
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    LopezElliana
    Newest Member
    LopezElliana
    Joined

8.13-8.15 rain and storm event


Ian

Recommended Posts

  • Replies 562
  • Created
  • Last Reply

...MID AND SE ATLANTIC AREA THIS AFTERNOON... THE PRIMARY MIDLEVEL LOW WILL DRIFT EWD FROM OH TOWARD WRN PA/WV...WHILE EMBEDDED SPEED MAXIMA ROTATE SEWD/EWD FROM THE OH VALLEY TOWARD THE CAROLINAS. ASCENT WITH THESE FEATURES WILL SPREAD EWD FROM ERN KY/TN TO WRN VA AND THE WRN CAROLINAS THIS AFTERNOON. THIS WILL COINCIDE WITH SLOW EWD PROGRESS OF A LEE TROUGH ACROSS THE PIEDMONT AND JUST E OF THE BLUE RIDGE...WHERE CLOUD BREAKS WILL ALLOW SURFACE TEMPERATURES TO WARM INTO THE LOW 80S THIS AFTERNOON. MLCAPE IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO NEAR 1500 J/KG ALONG THE SURFACE TROUGH...AND 1500-2000 J/KG FARTHER E ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAINS WHERE BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS ARE WELL INTO THE 70S.

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP BY MID AFTERNOON NEAR OR JUST E OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN FROM WRN VA TO THE WRN CAROLINAS...AND STORMS WILL SUBSEQUENTLY SPREAD EWD/SEWD THROUGH THE AFTERNOON EVENING. THE PRIMARY CONCERN FOR THIS AREA WILL BE THE LINGERING CLOUDS AND THEIR IMPACT ON AFTERNOON INSTABILITY. HOWEVER...A GRADUAL INCREASE IN MIDLEVEL FLOW AND LOW-LEVEL DESTABILIZATION WILL PROMOTE A RISK FOR DAMAGING WINDS WITH THE STRONGER STORMS...AND PERHAPS SOME MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I see a good period of sun (sun and clouds) for a while... this will def help destabilize a bit more than I thought

Yep, clouds breaking up and full sunshine over Curtis Bay. (And the fishermen who took cover during the downpour, have returned to their spots on the bridge.)

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Not a meteorologist, but aren't troughs supposed to be accompanied by clouds? I've seen about 3 of them all day so far.

Forecast:

Hi: 77 °F

Cloudy. A chance of showers and thunderstorms late this morning...then showers and thunderstorms this afternoon. Some… more

Actual:

Sunny.

Hi: 88 F

I'm still waiting for the relief from the heat due last Thursday. Our coolest day so far has been 4 F above normal (Thursday). 89 F on Friday and yesterday, and headed to an easy 90+ today.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Not a meteorologist, but aren't troughs supposed to be accompanied by clouds? I've seen about 3 of them all day so far.

Forecast:

Hi: 77 °F

Cloudy. A chance of showers and thunderstorms late this morning...then showers and thunderstorms this afternoon. Some… more

Actual:

Sunny.

Hi: 88 F

I'm still waiting for the relief from the heat due last Thursday. Our coolest day so far has been 4 F above normal (Thursday). 89 F on Friday and yesterday, and headed to an easy 90+ today.

Mostly brown at my home in Boyce too with just a trace for the "huge rain event" .

Drive through Stephens City all the time on my way to WV and the story of 2 worlds.

The 277 area of Stephens City is brown and desperate for rain.

Plush green here in WV, it has been mostly sunny and sweet all day here with a high of 78.8.

Very little rain here with with this "event" (.35) clouding up now but unless things change in the next few hours this has been a horrific bust.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

1700 SPC meso

1500-2000 SBCAPE

~1000 MLCAPE

900 DCAPE along Apps

30-35 kts 0-6km shear

30 kts effective shear

LI -2 in NE MD to -5 in W/SW portion of LWX CWA

LL Lapse Rates 7 to 7.5 WEST of I-95

ML Lapse Rates -- You don't want to know (its terrible)

1800 SPC meso

1500-2000+ SBCAPE

~1500 MLCAPE

900 DCAPE along Apps to Blue Ridge

30-35 kts 0-6km shear

30-35 kts effective shear

LI -2/-3 in NE MD to -5/-6 in W/SW portion of LWX CWA

LL Lapse Rates 7 to 8 WEST of I-95

ML Lapse Rates -- 5.5 to 6 C/KM

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Very surprised to see the watch that far south and not closer.. didn't expect it to be imby but did expect to be somewhat near

Don't often get widespread severe once the trough is already overhead IMO. Want to see it push toward/into primed air. May get a pulse svr tho everything still kinda west for nearing late afternoon.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I disagree that this storm is a bust. Maybe in a widespread soaking sense but it still produced for some. JFK got all time daily rain. Of course that's no solace in winter so maybe not now either.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Archived

This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.

×
×
  • Create New...