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8.13-8.15 rain and storm event


Ian

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Ive had several downpours today, no idea how much I have gotten.

No more complaining about no rain up there, you have done well recently.

Barely got anything here, gauge measured .03, was .04 earlier in the evening. Crunch Crunch on the yard continues, only liquid it is getting is the dog peeing on it

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No rain today. Dry as a bone here...sunny most of the day.

Models didnt have much of anything west of the eastern side of the Apps today. Tomorrow still seems to favor east of the Apps too but you should get something!

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Certainly appears baltimore east might be much wetter then bwi west.. obviously.. interesting to see if lwx or the models win

SREF is still pretty wet (1"+ for pretty much everyone). I'd want to say the NAM is a burp run tho it did pretty well with today. Different setup though.

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0600 OTLK (30 wind 30 hail 2 tor)

..MID-OH VLY/CNTRL APLCNS/MID-ATLC SWD TO SE ATLC REGION

LEAD WAVE EJECTING ENE AHEAD OF THE PRIMARY UPR TROUGH WILL BE

SUPPORTING SVRL TSTM CLUSTERS FROM THE MID-ATLC REGION SWD INTO THE

CAROLINAS EARLY IN THE PD. WHILE RESIDUAL CLOUDS/PCPN WILL TEMPER

STRONG DESTABILIZATION...PRELIM THOUGHTS ARE THAT AIR MASS WILL

MODESTLY HEAT IN THE LEE OF THE APLCNS FROM NEAR THE MASON-DIXON

LINE SWD INTO SE GA AS EARLY DAY ACTIVITY PROGRESSES ENE. RICH

MOISTURE /PWATS IN EXCESS OF 1.75 INCHES/ AND STEEPENING MID-LVL

LAPSE RATES ASSOCIATED WITH THE PRIMARY UPR SYSTEM WILL YIELD

POCKETS OF MLCAPES TO 1500 J/KG. EXPECT STORMS WILL DEVELOP/

GRADUALLY INCREASE ALONG THE HIGHER TERRAIN/LEE TROUGH/EXISTING

OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES FROM MD/VA SWD INTO THE WRN PIEDMONT OF THE

CAROLINAS AND ECNTRL GA DURING THE MID-AFTN AND MOVE EWD INTO THE

COASTAL PLAINS BY EARLY EVENING. BELT OF 30-40 KTS OF WSW MID-LVL

FLOW ALONG BASE OF THE UPR TROUGH WILL FAVOR A FEW ORGANIZED STORMS

/BOWS AND BRIEF SUPERCELLS/ WITH SVR WINDS AND LARGE HAIL...

PARTICULARLY FROM CNTRL/ERN VA SWD INTO CNTRL NC.

MEANWHILE...AT LEAST WDLY SCTD STRONG-SVR TSTMS WILL LIKELY EVOLVE

BENEATH PRIMARY UPR LOW/VCNTY OCCLUDED SFC LOW/FRONT OVER THE MID-OH

VLY/CNTRL APLCNS DURING PEAK HEATING. HERE...MID-LVL TEMPS AROUND

MINUS 12-14 DEG C WILL COMBINE WITH LOCAL DIABATIC HEATING TO

SUPPORT MLCAPES TO 1500 J/KG. WHILE VERTICAL SHEAR WILL NOT BE

PARTICULARLY STRONG...MODESTLY STEEP MID-LVL LAPSE RATES AND MODEST

WSW UPSLOPE LLVL FLOW COMPONENT WILL FAVOR SVR HAIL IN STRONGER

STORMS. PART OF THIS ACTIVITY WILL TRANSLATE EWD INTO THE

MID-ATLANTIC REGION BEYOND THE MOUNTAINS DURING THE EVENING WITH

SPORADIC SVR WINDS/HAIL.

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