nj2va Posted August 11, 2011 Share Posted August 11, 2011 12z euro has 1"+ from the va/md border (actually about 30-50 miles sw) and off to the northeast on Sunday. Seems like Sat is slipping away as the system is a little slower now. Crap, looks like I can kiss skydiving goodbye Sunday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted August 11, 2011 Share Posted August 11, 2011 12z euro has 1"+ from the va/md border (actually about 30-50 miles sw) and off to the northeast on Sunday. Seems like Sat is slipping away as the system is a little slower now. I wouldn't mind too much. I'm up in South Jersey for an outdoor party on Saturday, and it wouldn't be awful to be at home for a lazy, rainy Sunday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted August 12, 2011 Share Posted August 12, 2011 Considering Sunday as a possible chase day down in VA/NC... gotta watch the early clouds/rain, though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buffalo Transplant Posted August 12, 2011 Share Posted August 12, 2011 So I am monitoring the forecast for a company event that is planned outside in the Leesburg area from 6-10pm on Saturday night. When does the rain look to enter the area? Thanks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted August 12, 2011 Author Share Posted August 12, 2011 NAM has been pretty consistent with laying down a stripe up to around 2" near the 95 corridor. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted August 12, 2011 Author Share Posted August 12, 2011 So I am monitoring the forecast for a company event that is planned outside in the Leesburg area from 6-10pm on Saturday night. When does the rain look to enter the area? Thanks. Anything tomorrow should be isolated to scattered. Hard to nail down. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted August 12, 2011 Share Posted August 12, 2011 The overnight SPC outlook, just because nobody else posted it: ...MID-ATLANTIC/CAROLINAS... ONGOING/POTENTIALLY WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE EXPECTED AT THE START OF THE PERIOD...AHEAD OF THE DIGGING UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED WEAK SURFACE FRONT. THIS RAISES QUESTIONS WITH RESPECT TO DEGREE OF DESTABILIZATION POTENTIAL E OF THE APPALACHIANS. STILL...EXPECT SOME INCREASE IN STORM INTENSITY DURING THE AFTERNOON -- AT LEAST LOCALLY...AIDED BY MODERATE /35 KT/ MID-LEVEL FLOW SPREADING ACROSS THE REGION AHEAD OF THE DIGGING TROUGH. AS A RESULT...WILL INTRODUCE A BROAD SLIGHT RISK -- MAINLY TO COVER WHAT APPEARS TO BE POTENTIAL FOR PRIMARILY DAMAGING WINDS. STORMS MAY CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING...SPREADING TOWARD THE COAST AHEAD OF THE STEADILY PROGRESSIVE SURFACE AND UPPER SYSTEM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted August 12, 2011 Share Posted August 12, 2011 12z GFS has <1" of rain for everyone, biggest amounts toward Philly. Getting "meh" worthy. On a better note, while the 6z looked like it wanted to bring back some heat in the mid-long range, 12z gives us a pattern that we''ll be dying for in 4-5 months. Big western ridge and deep eastern trough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted August 12, 2011 Author Share Posted August 12, 2011 12z GFS has <1" of rain for everyone, biggest amounts toward Philly. Getting "meh" worthy. On a better note, while the 6z looked like it wanted to bring back some heat in the mid-long range, 12z gives us a pattern that we''ll be dying for in 4-5 months. Big western ridge and deep eastern trough. still would be one of the bigger rain events areawide in quite a while. gfs is going to underdo heaviest qpf in a convective situation as well imo. euro is still around 1" on Sunday with some also tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted August 12, 2011 Share Posted August 12, 2011 12z GFS has <1" of rain for everyone, biggest amounts toward Philly. Getting "meh" worthy. On a better note, while the 6z looked like it wanted to bring back some heat in the mid-long range, 12z gives us a pattern that we''ll be dying for in 4-5 months. Big western ridge and deep eastern trough. Where's the 0C line? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Avdave Posted August 12, 2011 Share Posted August 12, 2011 Where's the 0C line? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted August 12, 2011 Share Posted August 12, 2011 still would be one of the bigger rain events areawide in quite a while. gfs is going to underdo heaviest qpf in a convective situation as well imo. Agree on both points. GFS has been trending towards lighter precip from what I've seen, however. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RickinBaltimore Posted August 12, 2011 Share Posted August 12, 2011 Where's the 0C line? Somewhere near Nunavut... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted August 13, 2011 Author Share Posted August 13, 2011 Agree on both points. GFS has been trending towards lighter precip from what I've seen, however. You sort of (or on some models do) have a coastal type jump or at least a relocation southeast as the trough digs in fully as seen as winter -- this has now been rather well modeled for a few days as well (note miller b comment in first post). Hard to say where the heaviest axis sets up. I have not followed the GFS enough perhaps. It still looks primed for someone to me. The NAM may be overdone but I think it makes some sense in developing an axis of heavy precip in the broader area. But yeah it's probably still hard to think we've got this one... could develop to far northeast and just hit SNE instead. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted August 13, 2011 Author Share Posted August 13, 2011 it's a summertime archambault event.. ct blizz may get heavy snow at some point Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BethesdaWX Posted August 13, 2011 Share Posted August 13, 2011 The past two precipitation threats have seemed more "Autumn-like" in nature, at least to a casual observer like myself, clouds and rain would be a welcome change. Already seemingly amplified wavelengths to an extent across the globe. I'm thinking something but won't say it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted August 13, 2011 Share Posted August 13, 2011 The new srefs look a bunch wetter for the northern va area in general, though not necessarily for you guys over near DC. I'd think that it is still a better signal, being a region wide wetter forecast, pinpoint locations probably meaning little. OTOH, the new NAM comes in dry for the same areas that the srefs are wet in. So go figure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted August 13, 2011 Author Share Posted August 13, 2011 The new srefs look a bunch wetter for the northern va area in general, though not necessarily for you guys over near DC. I'd think that it is still a better signal, being a region wide wetter forecast, pinpoint locations probably meaning little. OTOH, the new NAM comes in dry for the same areas that the srefs are wet in. So go figure. NAM has slowed a bit I think. It still likes crushing someone... the leesburg fringe zone may be returning. more after map below but interesting look. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted August 13, 2011 Author Share Posted August 13, 2011 one thing for sure.. im going to bust somewhere with my forecast for cwg tomorrow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted August 13, 2011 Share Posted August 13, 2011 one thing for sure.. im going to bust somewhere with my forecast for cwg tomorrow I'm interested in seeing the ind. members of that sref and see where all that precip is coming from. Could be the NAM is out on its own. I guess it's hard to pin down precip when thunderstorms are involved. I guess time of day can have a big say in that as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted August 13, 2011 Share Posted August 13, 2011 Quite the spread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted August 13, 2011 Author Share Posted August 13, 2011 NAM MOS took a nosedive for tomorrow.. Now down near 80 areawide. Has a frontrunner vort in the flow. Always kinda suspect I guess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted August 13, 2011 Share Posted August 13, 2011 0z GFS 60 hr precip total says you will enjoy my 1-1.5 inches Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted August 13, 2011 Share Posted August 13, 2011 New srefs are wet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted August 13, 2011 Author Share Posted August 13, 2011 NAM MOS took a nosedive for tomorrow.. Now down near 80 areawide. Has a frontrunner vort in the flow. Always kinda suspect I guess. NAM ftw? Out so don't have sat but rather cloudy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted August 13, 2011 Share Posted August 13, 2011 Very thick smoke smell and haze here... reminiscent of quebec forest fire smoke in SNE last june Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted August 13, 2011 Share Posted August 13, 2011 NAM ftw? Out so don't have sat but rather cloudy. some sun here and there imby. I bet 83+ at some point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NinjaWarrior2 Posted August 13, 2011 Share Posted August 13, 2011 Rain around us and cloudy, i think we bust low on high temps low to mid 80s Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted August 13, 2011 Share Posted August 13, 2011 Pouring with T&L in Cockeysville Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted August 13, 2011 Author Share Posted August 13, 2011 Nice slug moving NE.. May favor SE of DC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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