Kmlwx Posted August 14, 2011 Share Posted August 14, 2011 radar looks ok for more rain at least but the shadow livith on the 18z nam NOWCAST TIME! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted August 14, 2011 Author Share Posted August 14, 2011 NOWCAST TIME! well, if i must... meh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted August 14, 2011 Share Posted August 14, 2011 What's the most embarrassing thing about today is that it was sunny. It wasn't even cloudy. A complete modeling and forecasting failure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastCoast NPZ Posted August 14, 2011 Share Posted August 14, 2011 That map is fantasy. Rarely has VA seen widespread radar saturation like that all summer. No, Frederick Co. (VA) is rain-free, so that is probably accurate. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Avdave Posted August 14, 2011 Share Posted August 14, 2011 I will say LWX hoisting a flood watch at 4am after the NAM came out was akin or worse than the WSW we got for the Boxing Day storm. Sometimes you gotta wonder at least a little. Hope Isohume doesnt see this, he will give you his lecture on not IYB watches Got a few towers here but nothing else just bright sunshine and 89 degrees Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted August 14, 2011 Share Posted August 14, 2011 well, if i must... meh meh X2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted August 14, 2011 Share Posted August 14, 2011 Let's play: See if your backyard can get hit by scattered thundershowers.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted August 14, 2011 Share Posted August 14, 2011 Just hoping for a lucky shot at this point. From a science standpoint, I wish someone would explain to me why the individual heavier pockets of rain seem to hardly move while the whole precip mass via radar seems to move at a good clip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted August 14, 2011 Share Posted August 14, 2011 12z euro still gives us an inch Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted August 14, 2011 Share Posted August 14, 2011 I've received so much rain in the past two days, I'd rather not get any more. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mrs.J Posted August 14, 2011 Share Posted August 14, 2011 Let's play: See if your backyard can get hit by scattered thundershowers.. If that hot mess to the SW of me keeps on track I just may have to set mine up for good odds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Avdave Posted August 14, 2011 Share Posted August 14, 2011 12z euro still gives us an inch Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted August 14, 2011 Share Posted August 14, 2011 Let's play: See if your backyard can get hit by scattered thundershowers.. I'll play. I'll put up twenty that says no for me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted August 14, 2011 Share Posted August 14, 2011 I've received so much rain in the past two days, I'd rather not get any more. Now that's just rubbing it in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted August 14, 2011 Share Posted August 14, 2011 Looks like I should get to watering that garden. What a terrible forecast today was...unpredictable weather here! They probably could have let us skydive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted August 14, 2011 Share Posted August 14, 2011 just had a brief rain shower here at my mom's in annandale. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted August 14, 2011 Share Posted August 14, 2011 Looks like saying that worked. A quick sunshower here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted August 14, 2011 Share Posted August 14, 2011 This thread eerily reminds me of some we had during the winter, and will probably have again this winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 14, 2011 Share Posted August 14, 2011 Rain events this time of year, are absolutely horrible to predict, especially where the QPF max will be. You lose the baroclinicity and strong advection processes that occur in the winter to throw back QPF, so you're left with the mercy of trying to find where a 30kt LLJ is going to be shoved over a front in the lower levels. Today, it was up in NYC. I didn't really look at what was modeled down here, but it seemed like PHL on northeast into NYC was always ground zero. Models are still struggling up there. They more or less become nowcast events. This was one of those events where you know a sh*tload will fall...just a matter of where. All you can really do is trying to narrow down there area, and go from there. We also don't have a well developed surface low at this time, but we do have a deepening trough which sometimes acts to keep the tropical plume in place..such as in the NYC area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted August 14, 2011 Share Posted August 14, 2011 Gotta love my NWS point/click forecast. Pic says heavy rain, text says rain less than 1/10 of an inch. Oh, wait, that would be heavy rain. What was I thinking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted August 14, 2011 Author Share Posted August 14, 2011 for now it looks like Sat could be a decent storm day (though we know how that goes, timing could be an issue) and Sun could have our first miller b screwjob of the coming winter? funny thing is my tuesday night 'cast was better than my day before one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted August 14, 2011 Share Posted August 14, 2011 Frederick County wall holding strong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted August 14, 2011 Share Posted August 14, 2011 News from that little valley out west that always taunts us with its extremes... Grant Co,WV Airport METAR KW99 142115Z AUTO 16024G36KT 10SM TSRA OVC055 26/17 A2975 RMK AO2 LTG DSNT ALQS P0002 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted August 14, 2011 Share Posted August 14, 2011 I wonder if the moisture to our west misses us...I see possible split Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted August 14, 2011 Share Posted August 14, 2011 I wonder if the moisture to our west misses us...I see possible split It took me a while but I have learned that it is better to just not even ask the question for around here Ji...enjoy the sun it's pretty out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted August 14, 2011 Share Posted August 14, 2011 This has actually been one of the nicest days of the summer and I'm furious Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted August 14, 2011 Author Share Posted August 14, 2011 I wonder if the moisture to our west misses us...I see possible split it's not moving that fast could start to dwindle with sunset.. and yeah the split Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted August 14, 2011 Share Posted August 14, 2011 I out this on twitter but one of the brightest days of the year is one of the darkest for pro and weenie forecasters Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted August 14, 2011 Share Posted August 14, 2011 Severe progress made in Leesburg. It just turned partly cloudy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted August 14, 2011 Share Posted August 14, 2011 Frederick County wall holding strong. You've got some holes in your wall... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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