Ian Posted August 10, 2011 Share Posted August 10, 2011 Weird having troughiness around on model runs again! Looks like we get a temporary decent one through here during the weekend. Verbatim (and there is support across Euro/GFS/NAM as far as it runs) for now it looks like Sat could be a decent storm day (though we know how that goes, timing could be an issue) and Sun could have our first miller b screwjob of the coming winter? I feel like payback for July is nigh. Though I should stop believing my dreams have meaning... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted August 10, 2011 Author Share Posted August 10, 2011 loaded -- nam at 84 the others are similar in setup if not exact placement. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted August 10, 2011 Share Posted August 10, 2011 loaded -- nam at 84 the others are similar in setup if not exact placement. Is that a bad map? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted August 10, 2011 Share Posted August 10, 2011 Been watching this one... some timing/placement issues to work out still, but there's potential. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted August 10, 2011 Share Posted August 10, 2011 HPC really shot up our QPF 5 day forecast from last night to this morning. I guess they see something good as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted August 10, 2011 Author Share Posted August 10, 2011 HPC really shot up our QPF 5 day forecast from last night to this morning. I guess they see something good as well. nice! NEW OLD Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted August 10, 2011 Share Posted August 10, 2011 Better happen or I'm never going to reply to an Ian post ever again. Not that the world would care. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted August 10, 2011 Author Share Posted August 10, 2011 Is that a bad map? btw, not really.. except that it's 84 hr nam Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted August 10, 2011 Share Posted August 10, 2011 btw, not really.. except that it's 84 hr nam Well if the severe weather this year has been any indicator we will fail. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted August 10, 2011 Share Posted August 10, 2011 Uro only gives us .50qpf Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted August 10, 2011 Author Share Posted August 10, 2011 Well if the severe weather this year has been any indicator we will fail. could be a double fail.. svr fail then low pressure fail. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted August 10, 2011 Share Posted August 10, 2011 Uro only gives us .50qpf That would exceed my total for the past month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted August 10, 2011 Share Posted August 10, 2011 could be a double fail.. svr fail then low pressure fail. The two fails would be so monumental the would turn into a win. I guess I'll be happy with some cool temps Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted August 10, 2011 Share Posted August 10, 2011 The two fails would be so monumental the would turn into a win. I guess I'll be happy with some cool temps Agreed.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted August 10, 2011 Share Posted August 10, 2011 Saturday storms are a-ok with me. But I'm going sky diving Sunday so I'd appreciate nice weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted August 10, 2011 Share Posted August 10, 2011 Mmm, guess I better have maintenance check out the leak in my kitchen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted August 10, 2011 Share Posted August 10, 2011 Mmm, guess I better have maintenance check out the leak in my kitchen. You control the weather. Don't have maintenance check out the leak in your kitchen = deluge. Have maintenance check out the leak in your kitchen = blue skies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted August 10, 2011 Share Posted August 10, 2011 GFS seems to be a touch slower than the NAM. Precip is decent, even in the DC screw zone Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted August 10, 2011 Share Posted August 10, 2011 btw, not really.. except that it's 84 hr nam 2 years ago it was dead on every run. I trust it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted August 10, 2011 Author Share Posted August 10, 2011 HPC afternoon disco: THE UNUSUALLY STRONG WEEKEND DYNAMICS FOR AUGUST OVER THE ERN CONUS SHOULD PRODUCE A WIDESPREAD AREA OF SYNOPTIC SCALE MODERATE TO HEAVY CONVECTIVE RAINFALL FROM THE APPALACHIANS EWD THRU THE CAROLINAS THEN NORTHEASTWARDS UP THE EAST COAST STATES. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted August 11, 2011 Share Posted August 11, 2011 HPC afternoon disco: THE UNUSUALLY STRONG WEEKEND DYNAMICS FOR AUGUST OVER THE ERN CONUS SHOULD PRODUCE A WIDESPREAD AREA OF SYNOPTIC SCALE MODERATE TO HEAVY CONVECTIVE RAINFALL FROM THE APPALACHIANS EWD THRU THE CAROLINAS THEN NORTHEASTWARDS UP THE EAST COAST STATES. And we need it to.... I hope we see more of these types of discos from HPC this winter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted August 11, 2011 Share Posted August 11, 2011 Vort max coming in two rather "meh" pieces with unidirectional SW flow aloft... looks like we could get a line of storms along the cold front, though timing and pre-frontal cloud cover could be an issue. Nice low-level jet will help organize storms, but the lapse rates will probably be hurtin' Looks like a good widespread rain event in any case. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted August 11, 2011 Share Posted August 11, 2011 And we need it to.... I hope we see more of these types of discos from HPC this winter You mean "synoptic scale moderate to heavy convective rainfall?" Perhaps in a Nino... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted August 11, 2011 Share Posted August 11, 2011 12z nam is a hard hit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted August 11, 2011 Share Posted August 11, 2011 12z nam is a hard hit. For you and point NW of DC DC fringe! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted August 11, 2011 Author Share Posted August 11, 2011 heh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted August 11, 2011 Author Share Posted August 11, 2011 ha, it regens east of dc Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted August 11, 2011 Share Posted August 11, 2011 east trend starts with 18z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted August 11, 2011 Share Posted August 11, 2011 ha, it regens east of dc Reeks of a shadow of sorts... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted August 11, 2011 Author Share Posted August 11, 2011 12z euro has 1"+ from the va/md border (actually about 30-50 miles sw) and off to the northeast on Sunday. Seems like Sat is slipping away as the system is a little slower now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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