SnoSki14 Posted December 6, 2010 Share Posted December 6, 2010 actually i've hear rumors that this might be the beginning of a multi-year Nina, like 98-99 to 01-02. 1 reason why I'm looking at Indiana and St. Louis for college 01-02 wasn't a La Nina, and if there was a multi-year Nina, the next Nina winter would most likely feature a much weaker La Nina and one that is more favorable for us like 00-01. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ptb127 Posted December 6, 2010 Share Posted December 6, 2010 Looks better for inland areas, E PA (0z GGEM) but still lousy for the big cities. It's funny how people are throwing in the towel for the winter in NYC and it's only Dec 6th lol.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 6, 2010 Author Share Posted December 6, 2010 DId you actually read my post? I said its verbatim still a cutter unless it pops a secondary (cough cough which it did at 192) but never said that this solution would yield a snowstorm or even any snow at all. Just pointing out the trend post the 192, please Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 6, 2010 Share Posted December 6, 2010 How can the storm go through the midwest if both the NAO and AO are still going to be negative ? The block wouldn't allow the storm to get that much north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
atownwxwatcher Posted December 6, 2010 Share Posted December 6, 2010 Pretty significant change from earlier runs.. Has definitely trended towards the ECM...This is the 00z, 12z, 18 Z for comparisons.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 6, 2010 Author Share Posted December 6, 2010 How can the storm go through the midwest if both the NAO and AO are still going to be negative ? The block wouldn't allow the storm to get that much north. if its east based it can, also there is no 50/50 low to lock in high pressure Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted December 6, 2010 Share Posted December 6, 2010 How can the storm go through the midwest if both the NAO and AO are still going to be negative ? The block wouldn't allow the storm to get that much north. East based neg nao will Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted December 6, 2010 Share Posted December 6, 2010 This is why you get criticized. DUDE its Dec. 6th we're 5 days into Met. winter and 2 and a half wks away from the solstice. There is so much time left its not even funny. One caveat any forecaster will tell you when predicting snow amounts for the season is ONE STORM...ONE STORM..can put you near that amount. Granted bigger storms are less likely in a La nina but sitting here on Dec 6th questioning whether we'll even see 20 inches is specifically the reason people call you out. Offer some meteorological analysis if you'd like but just proclaiming snow total forecasts are in trouble due no good for anyone and make you seem like an uninformed troll in many peoples eyes. Didn't you listen to JB, he said winter is basically over after Christmas and many Mets have even stated that in January and February, the SE ridge will strengthen and the blocking will weaken giving us a very warm January and February. OH and true me, we're probably not going to get ONE STORM that gives us those big amounts this season. If we do, then that's pure luck and amazement in such a strong Nina. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 6, 2010 Share Posted December 6, 2010 Didn't you listen to JB, he said winter is basically over after Christmas and many Mets have even stated that in January and February, the SE ridge will strengthen and the blocking will weaken giving us a very warm January and February. OH and true me, we're probably not going to get ONE STORM that gives us those big amounts this season. If we do, then that's pure luck and amazement in such a strong Nina. We saw the big snowstorm in Feb of 2006 during a horrible pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted December 6, 2010 Share Posted December 6, 2010 Didn't you listen to JB, he said winter is basically over after Christmas and many Mets have even stated that in January and February, the SE ridge will strengthen and the blocking will weaken giving us a very warm January and February. OH and true me, we're probably not going to get ONE STORM that gives us those big amounts this season. If we do, then that's pure luck and amazement in such a strong Nina. You tell him CBW....JB has never been wrong Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEXtreme Posted December 6, 2010 Share Posted December 6, 2010 Didn't you listen to JB, he said winter is basically over after Christmas and many Mets have even stated that in January and February, the SE ridge will strengthen and the blocking will weaken giving us a very warm January and February. OH and true me, we're probably not going to get ONE STORM that gives us those big amounts this season. If we do, then that's pure luck and amazement in such a strong Nina. JB has said that he is now getting worried about that call! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner587 Posted December 6, 2010 Share Posted December 6, 2010 You tell him CBW....JB has never been wrong Im honestly amazed that this was his rebuttal. JB and all the other mets say winters over=winters over? Ok I guess we have the best long range model at our fingertips now. No reason to stay here and talk about winter now..I'll see you guys for severe weather season Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 6, 2010 Share Posted December 6, 2010 One positive thing from tonight is that DT said that the Nina is weakening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted December 6, 2010 Share Posted December 6, 2010 I know JB hypes a lot, but he definitely knows how to forecast. He completely nailed the hurricane season and last winter to a tee. I'm definitely paying very close attention to what he has to say. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEXtreme Posted December 6, 2010 Share Posted December 6, 2010 One positive thing from tonight is that DT said that the Nina is weakening. Yes, and he is not the only Met saying that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 6, 2010 Share Posted December 6, 2010 I know JB hypes a lot, but he definitely knows how to forecast. He completely nailed the hurricane season and last winter to a tee. I'm definitely paying very close attention to what he has to say. JB knows his stuff but he also a big weenie. Him and Henry are dynamic duos. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
atownwxwatcher Posted December 6, 2010 Share Posted December 6, 2010 Didn't you listen to JB, he said winter is basically over after Christmas and many Mets have even stated that in January and February, the SE ridge will strengthen and the blocking will weaken giving us a very warm January and February. OH and true me, we're probably not going to get ONE STORM that gives us those big amounts this season. If we do, then that's pure luck and amazement in such a strong Nina. Would this be the same JB that has been saying that we were going to have the coldest air in 30 years and also the same JB that was calling for an EPIC -Blockbuster event the week of the 5th to the 15th? Not seeing either so far.. There are much better METS on here then JB...sorry Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted December 6, 2010 Share Posted December 6, 2010 Im honestly amazed that this was his rebuttal. JB and all the other mets say winters over=winters over? Ok I guess we have the best long range model at our fingertips now. No reason to stay here and talk about winter now..I'll see you guys for severe weather season From dealing with him on eastern, its just better to take him with a grain of salt. When things are boring weather wise or not looking good, he comes of with such crazy and off the wall post that just make you laugh. In no instance in any of his post does he make sense Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted December 6, 2010 Share Posted December 6, 2010 if its east based it can, also there is no 50/50 low to lock in high pressure Not to mention, the PV being phased in with this storm, pulling it north too early Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEXtreme Posted December 6, 2010 Share Posted December 6, 2010 Would this be the same JB that has been saying that we were going to have the coldest air in 30 years and also the same JB that was calling for an EPIC -Blockbuster event the week of the 5th to the 15th? Not seeing either so far.. There are much better METS on here then JB...sorry as of today he still is talking about the cold and blockbuster storm for Sunday into early next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 6, 2010 Share Posted December 6, 2010 Yes, and he is not the only Met saying that. That would bold well for Jan-March. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 6, 2010 Author Share Posted December 6, 2010 anyone have ggem hr 192 map? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
atownwxwatcher Posted December 6, 2010 Share Posted December 6, 2010 anyone have ggem hr 192 map? ECM has initialized. Starting a new thread? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsnowx53 Posted December 6, 2010 Share Posted December 6, 2010 anyone have ggem hr 192 map? Is this it? http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/ggem/00zggem500mbHGHTNA192.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattinpa Posted December 6, 2010 Share Posted December 6, 2010 GGEM was the only one that trended better so far - though it might just be that degree of inland. We'll see. The transfer was good, but has to be earlier. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
atownwxwatcher Posted December 6, 2010 Share Posted December 6, 2010 Is this it? http://raleighwx.ame...mbHGHTNA192.gif Thats last nights...tonights would show tuesday! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 6, 2010 Author Share Posted December 6, 2010 Is this it? http://raleighwx.ame...mbHGHTNA192.gif no its not, but ant sent me it, thanks tho Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 6, 2010 Share Posted December 6, 2010 192 on the 0z GGEM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsnowx53 Posted December 6, 2010 Share Posted December 6, 2010 Perhaps the GGEM would be a couple of inches of snow, then heavy, heavy rain, then back to a bit of snow? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner587 Posted December 6, 2010 Share Posted December 6, 2010 based on its 168 position it had to creep up the coast kind of like the GFS ensemble mean. Obviously its a gigantic (250+ miles) east shift and good 500mb low position or not it has trended in our favor. Next up; Dr. Maybe? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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