0z Model thread for nyc/philly

[isnice]

hr 144 of gem

That looks quite horrific. Makes me wonder why I still live on the east coast.

[Allsnow]

Jeez, the GGEM is fugly

congrats st paul.......great winter going on there so far

[ptb127]

Positive thing is it's still so far out there can be many more changes. One GFS run isn't a trend, though for now it joined the others. It still should be what we track IMO.

One run? I thought the euro and others are showing basically the same thing? Hard for all of them to be wrong...

[mattinpa]

garuntee 95% of the indiv are going to be a cutter

Could be, but for those later panels to be true, some have to be either showing the same solution as before or a Miller B off the coast.

[Kaner587]

I actually think the individual members might not be as bad as you think tombo...reason being with this type of situation you often end up with 2 camps (apps/lakes cutter and coastal) of which more of the members could be showing a SECS/MECS than before even though the entire means shifted west (presumably due to stratifying of the individual members into either group instead of having 6 different possibilities). Granted this often happens once we get a little closer but I guess we'll see when the individuals come out.

[mattinpa]

One run? I thought the euro and others are showing basically the same thing? Hard for all of them to be wrong...

First **GFS** run to show inland. It's not hard this far out, though in a Nina pattern I won't get too excited.

[SnoSki14]

Makes you wonder how NYC will get that 30" of snow forecast this winter.

[nzucker]

We're also really lucky blocking sets up by Day 10 or we'd be torching. Just look at that pacific jet roaring in and a big SE ridge building up on Day 10-11. In January, we're going to see just happens when we're going to be dealing with the same pattern but without blocking. YIKES.

That vortex over AK is just ugly, thank god the NAO blocking gets in there. Welcome to La Niña with a massive PV sitting over the Pacific side.

I've been criticized for saying this is not a favorable pattern for snow, but I'm right. Despite the month seemingly looking cold, we still may not see much snow. I think the 80s winters saw a lot of weather patterns like this where despite the month averaging below normal, there was barely any snow. This could end up one of those months where it averages below normal but the snow ends up below normal as well. That GOA low is not favorable, the PNA is not favorable, and had it not been for the blocking, we'd be above normal.

But amazingly, this pattern has been very favorable for Europe. They've been dealing with a lot of cold and snow events over the past several days with more snow and cold anticipated. So, that's kind of interesting how it works out for them but not for us.

Yes, correct, the GoA low is really dampening the PNA ridge from developing. If you look at the KU book, there's not many big East Coast snowstorms with a low over the GoA.

Any -NAO pattern is good for Europe because it blocks out the Atlantic jet and forces continental air from Russia to enter Europe on E/NE flow.

[tombo82685]

Could be, but for those later panels to be true, some have to be either showing the same solution or a Miller B off the coast.

no, i think we already went over this. its and adjusted mean. meaning you could have 2 ens member having a storm track off the nc coast while 10 have it going well north, and it will adjust it accordingly

[Kaner587]

Could be, but for those later panels to be true, some have to be either showing the same solution as before or a Miller B off the coast.

ya if the means is off the coast then 95% cant be cutters unless the other 5% are 20 times further off the coast...if that makes any sense

Edit: just read your post about adjusted...didn't realize thats how it works

[MJO812]

Makes you wonder how NYC will get that 30" of snow forecast this winter.

It's only the first week of December.

[nzucker]

Makes you wonder how NYC will get that 30" of snow forecast this winter.

My winter forecast had 19" of snow for NYC.

Central Park has almost always had below average snowfall in a strong La Niña so why would anyone think this year would be different?

[Thunder Road]

I'm probably grasping at straws here, but with the national radar being out all day, could that have screwed up data input for the GFS?

Of course, I know I'm a weenie when the outlier shifts closer to the other models and I'm blaming it on data input issues.

[SnoSki14]

It's only the first week of December.

According to JB, winter ends after Christmas although I'm taking that with a grain of salt.

[Thunder Road]

Makes you wonder how NYC will get that 30" of snow forecast this winter.

by who?

[JoMo]

I'm probably grasping at straws here, but with the national radar being out all day, could that have screwed up data input for the GFS?

Of course, I know I'm a weenie when the outlier shifts closer to the other models and I'm blaming it on data input issues.

Nah, the GFS just moved towards a more 12z Euroish solution. Stay turned about 40 mins from now to probably see a coastal on the Euro.... lol

[tombo82685]

hr 168

[MJO812]

by who?

A lot of people have 25-30 inches of snow for our area. Some people have above 30.

[MJO812]

Miller B on the GGEM?

[Allsnow]

According to JB, winter ends after Christmas although I'm taking that with a grain of salt.

If thats the case CBW, whats ur thoughts on next winter?

[SnoSki14]

by who?

Well a lot of Mets on this site believe NYC will see near normal snowfall, even 20" could be a stretch.

Next winter should be so much better especially if we see a continuation of the -NAO, I assume the La Nina could be gone and we'd be seeing neutral conditions next winter, which would be amazing.

[Kaner587]

LOL just when your ready to throw in the towel, GGEM to the rescue. Verbatim still a cutter unless it pops a secondary but it shifted east from its 12z run

[nzucker]

LOL just when your ready to throw in the towel, GGEM to the rescue. Verbatim still a cutter unless it pops a secondary but it shifted east from its 12z run

There's no way a low closing off over Indiana's OH River Valley is going to provide a big snowstorm to NYC. Still looks crappy.

[weatherweather]

192 http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/ggem/00zggem500mbHGHTNA192.gif

[Thunder Road]

Well a lot of Mets on this site believe NYC will see near normal snowfall, even 20" could be a stretch.

Next winter should be so much better especially if we see a continuation of the -NAO, I assume the La Nina could be gone and we'd be seeing neutral conditions next winter, which would be amazing.

actually i've hear rumors that this might be the beginning of a multi-year Nina, like 98-99 to 01-02. 1 reason why I'm looking at Indiana and St. Louis for college

[SnoSki14]

One thing's for sure, somebody's going to get snow, and perhaps a lot of it while the snow weenies in the east are cursing at the La Nina and praying it dies a painful and grotesque death.

[MJO812]

There's no way a low closing off over Indiana's OH River Valley is going to provide a big snowstorm to NYC. Still looks crappy.

Yes it does but it shifted east. Every small shift east counts.

[Kaner587]

Well a lot of Mets on this site believe NYC will see near normal snowfall, even 20" could be a stretch.

This is why you get criticized. DUDE its Dec. 6th we're 5 days into Met. winter and 2 and a half wks away from the solstice. There is so much time left its not even funny. One caveat any forecaster will tell you when predicting snow amounts for the season is ONE STORM...ONE STORM..can put you near that amount. Granted bigger storms are less likely in a La nina but sitting here on Dec 6th questioning whether we'll even see 20 inches is specifically the reason people call you out. Offer some meteorological analysis if you'd like but just proclaiming snow total forecasts are in trouble due no good for anyone and make you seem like an uninformed troll in many peoples eyes.

[Allsnow]

This is why you get criticized. DUDE its Dec. 6th we're 5 days into Met. winter and 2 and a half wks away from the solstice. There is so much time left its not even funny. One caveat any forecaster will tell you when predicting snow amounts for the season is ONE STORM...ONE STORM..can put you near that amount. Granted bigger storms are less likely in a La nina but sitting here on Dec 6th questioning whether we'll even see 20 inches is specifically the reason people call you out. Offer some meteorological analysis if you'd like but just proclaiming snow total forecasts are in trouble due no good for anyone and make you seem like an uninformed troll in many peoples eyes.

Last year he stated that because he reach below 32 so late in november that he would have a crappy winter....and that febuary is the worse month for snow with the higher sun angel....

[Kaner587]

There's no way a low closing off over Indiana's OH River Valley is going to provide a big snowstorm to NYC. Still looks crappy.

DId you actually read my post? I said its verbatim still a cutter unless it pops a secondary (cough cough which it did at 192) but never said that this solution would yield a snowstorm or even any snow at all. Just pointing out the trend