0z Model thread for nyc/philly

[SnoSki14]

We're also really lucky blocking sets up by Day 10 or we'd be torching. Just look at that pacific jet roaring in and a big SE ridge building up on Day 10-11. In January, we're going to see just happens when we're going to be dealing with the same pattern but without blocking. YIKES.

[Kaner587]

Enough with this lakes cutter business this is not what the GFS shows. Is it a rainstorm? Obviously but an apps cutter is way different than a lakes cutter. It is definitely something to see all this model support for a strong system cutting west of the big cities so you have to at least expect something of this sort to happen. I think things can definitely change but the trends on the 0z GFS were awful and if they continue we can kiss our snow chances goodbye until the second half of the month. Good things on this run are the redevelopment of a more western -NAO after it partially breaks down, and you can see what effect this has on the pattern, as the ridging in the central US around 240 looks like it wants to barrel east but it cannot due to the block in place---this makes the subsequent storm ride just under us and off the coast as opposed to another cutter. The bad things are the obvious breakdown of the NAO with a transient 50/50 that moves away right when we want it to stay in place. I thought the west coast ridging looked nice but all that did was allow the storm to amplify further west since the ridge axis is right over Cali when we want it to be 250-500 miles east (i recall the boise, Idaho rule with west coast ridges). Things can easily change here and nothing is inherently bad in and of itself, as that west coast ridge can still be placed where it is but we need a stronger 50/50, a stronger block or a combo of both. And obviously vice versa...def looking forward to the euro

I just looked back after I posted and wanted to say I agree about the snow to rain--we actually got an amazing (hardly amazing but about as good as it gets without it being the superstorm) snow to rain several years ago (2003?) in december with a storm that was supposed to dump 1-3 in at most and we ended up with 6 on LI

[Colin]

"Inland lows" have a massive area of real estate they can shift to without us noticing much change in impact. We really don't notice or care if the low ends up tracking over Pitt, Cleveland, or Indy. The result for everyone east is still the same. The margin of error for us on a coastal low is much, much smaller since small shifts can have large differences in impact. The inland low tracks shift the same as the coastal ones, but we just don't notice since we don't care as long as they're inland.

good point.

[Allsnow]

yes. i know i don't have any meteorological evidence to back it up but i sware every single time models have converged on some kind of a cutter 6-8 days out in the winter, it usually happens in some form. rarely do models shift back to a coastal. but when it's the other way around, it always changes. frustrating. this is about the time where you should probably give up on the threat and start looking to the next one...as models seem to have no problem sniffing out a cutter.

It seems like a costal is alway frustrating because a little change in track can make a big diff. But its the same for places like chicago, st louis, detroit, and etc.....we just dont pay attention to it, as 60 and rain will be our forcast either way. I would not say go on and look for the next threat, but this early next week threat is quickly going down the drain. I also notice to in LA nina years the models usally lock on to cutters and never turn back........I think you are a diff poster on this site....obviously your name starts you off on the wrong foot, but i have seen nothing posted by you that was not a realstic thought.

[mattinpa]

Enough with this lakes cutter business this is not what the GFS shows. Is it a rainstorm? Obviously but an apps cutter is way different than a lakes cutter. It is definitely something to see all this model support for a strong system cutting west of the big cities so you have to at least expect something of this sort to happen. I think things can definitely change but the trends on the 0z GFS were awful and if they continue we can kiss our snow chances goodbye until the second half of the month. Good things on this run are the redevelopment of a more western -NAO after it partially breaks down, and you can see what effect this has on the pattern, as the ridging in the central US around 240 looks like it wants to barrel east but it cannot due to the block in place---this makes the subsequent storm ride just under us and off the coast as opposed to another cutter. The bad things are the obvious breakdown of the NAO with a transient 50/50 that moves away right when we want it to stay in place. I thought the west coast ridging looked nice but all that did was allow the storm to amplify further west since the ridge axis is right over Cali when we want it to be 250-500 miles east (i recall the boise, Idaho rule with west coast ridges). Things can easily change here and nothing is inherently bad in and of itself, as that west coast ridge can still be placed where it is but we need a stronger 50/50, a stronger block or a combo of both. And obviously vice versa...def looking forward to the euro

Positive thing is it's still so far out there can be many more changes. One GFS run isn't a trend, though for now it joined the others. It still should be what we track IMO.

[jm1220]

A serious CAD situation setting up for the LV if it is indeed a lakes cutter

The high which is currently depicted just north of the Dakotas will have to nose its way east. Right now it looks more in-situ than reinforced cold being pumped in through a high. The latter obviously takes a lot longer to dislodge.

[mattinpa]

It seems like a costal is alway frustrating because a little change in track can make a big diff. But its the same for places like chicago, st louis, detroit, and etc.....we just dont pay attention to it, as 60 and rain will be our forcast either way. I would not say go on and look for the next threat, but this early next week threat is quickly going down the drain. I also notice to in LA nina years the models usally lock on to cutters and never turn back........I think you are a diff poster on this site....obviously your name starts you off on the wrong foot, but i have seen nothing posted by you that was not a realstic thought.

In this Nina haven't we had more blocking than usual, though? The models could be having trouble with that.

[isnice]

I find it comical that part of the reason why that storm that was supposed to happen wednesday didn't come to fruition was because of a west based -NAO. Now, this storm is looking less likely because the blocking is too east-based. Afterwards, the west-based block returns. What will happen? I think I can guess...suppression.

[Sundog]

"Inland lows" have a massive area of real estate they can shift to without us noticing much change in impact. We really don't notice or care if the low ends up tracking over Pitt, Cleveland, or Indy. The result for everyone east is still the same. The margin of error for us on a coastal low is much, much smaller since small shifts can have large differences in impact. The inland low tracks shift the same as the coastal ones, but we just don't notice since we don't care as long as they're inland.

Good post.

[Allsnow]

In this Nina haven't we had more blocking than usual, though? The models could be having trouble with that.

It does not matter when most of the models are weakening the blocking........this is kind of a status quo la nina week if we get this cutter....cold just to warm up and rain

[NEXtreme]

One thing is for sure....7 days from now it will be Sunday!

[mattinpa]

It does not matter when most of the models are weakening the blocking........this is kind of a status quo la nina week if we get this cutter....cold just to warm up and rain

But that's the issue - maybe they are too quick to weaken the blocking.

[SnoSki14]

I've been criticized for saying this is not a favorable pattern for snow, but I'm right. Despite the month seemingly looking cold, we still may not see much snow. I think the 80s winters saw a lot of weather patterns like this where despite the month averaging below normal, there was barely any snow. This could end up one of those months where it averages below normal but the snow ends up below normal as well. That GOA low is not favorable, the PNA is not favorable, and had it not been for the blocking, we'd be above normal.

But amazingly, this pattern has been very favorable for Europe. They've been dealing with a lot of cold and snow events over the past several days with more snow and cold anticipated. So, that's kind of interesting how it works out for them but not for us.

[Kaner587]

I find it comical that part of the reason why that storm that was supposed to happen wednesday didn't come to fruition was because of a west based -NAO. Now, this storm is looking less likely because the blocking is too east-based. Afterwards, the west-based block returns. What will happen? I think I can guess...suppression.

You're explaining a common problem with La Nina winters that have relatively persistent cold---Cold and dry for 2 weeks, apps/lakes cutter wet and warm for 2 days and rinse and repeat. I have a feeling we'll have our time but it may be a waiting game that will leave many posters frustrated.

[MJO812]

0z GFS ensemble mean also trended west. It's a coastal hugger now.

http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/gfsensemble/00zgfsensemblep12168.gif

[tombo82685]

yea the idiv ens member are going to be ugly....the ens mean looks like a miller b type scenario

[tombo82685]

0z GFS ensemble mean also trended west. It's a coastal hugger now.

http://raleighwx.ame...emblep12168.gif

post the 156 hr, it looks like a cutter then transfer to a miller b position

[mattinpa]

Well, I'm out until the Euro. Don't give up so easily, folks. With the cold and blocking, anything can still happen. If this was 3 days out and it's still showing inland, then I'd be looking ahead.

[Analog96]

0z GFS ensemble mean also trended west. It's a coastal hugger now.

http://raleighwx.ame...emblep12168.gif

They almost HAD to, the op trended WAY west.

[atownwxwatcher]

Means (some feel they are useless others feel they are not)

[isnice]

Looks like a secondary low develops from the Ohio valley low. Proportionately, it shifted as much as the 12z. The 12z ensembles had our secondary at the benchmark.

Needless to say, the trend is not our friend. When the trend is our friend, it screws us anyway. I feel like we should find a new friend.

[Kaner587]

yea the idiv ens member are going to be ugly....the ens mean looks like a miller b type scenario

It is still nice to see it east of the operational (ie if it was west that would be a huge red flag). West trend definitely but we'll see if it holds true

[Allsnow]

post the 156 hr, it looks like a cutter then transfer to a miller b position

I think i told you on the phone this would happen...we both chuckled about it.......but welcome to la nina like that poster above said.....cold for a few weeks(lots of lake effect} then warm up and rain...

[Thunder Road]

You're actually right... Thinking back, inland cutters are usually very consistent. It's the coastal lows that never stay..

because whether it tracks through philly or Indianapolis, it's rain for us, so we don't notice the change. but just off the coast and just on the coast are two very different solutions for us here in PA, which is why it seems that wya

[tombo82685]

hr 144 of gem

[jrodd321]

I'll take this please.

[mattinpa]

Means (some feel they are useless others feel they are not)

That looks better for later in the storm. Individuals will be interesting.

[jrodd321]

Here's 180

[MJO812]

Jeez, the GGEM is fugly

[tombo82685]

Tthat looks better for later in the storm. Individuals will be interesting.

garuntee 95% of the indiv are going to be a cutter