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0z Model thread for nyc/philly


tombo82685

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Apps runner on this run. The cold air needs to come in faster.

i think the ridge out west has something to do with it. I thought i read snowgoose or analog say something in the 18z thread that if the ridge is more ampified its going to allow for the storm to cut inland because it can go negative quicker.

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See, the gfs didn't show a lake cutter, it went up through the Appalachians. Normally in the past, these events shift further and further west rather than east but we'll see what happens. The clipper before the storm really screws things up and the block weakens too quickly to allow the storm to go further east. Looks like a classic La Nina type storm on the 0z gfs though, if this run were to be correct, we would see 50s and heavy rain and wind, maybe even some convective activity.

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with all the models pretty much agreeing on a lakes cutter at this point, it's hard to think that everything is going to switch back. as far as i've tracked winter storms...once models lock onto an inland cutter it's what happens 99% of the time. it's pretty crazy really.

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with all the models pretty much agreeing on a lakes cutter at this point, it's hard to think that everything is going to switch back. as far as i've tracked winter storms...once models lock onto an inland cutter it's what happens 99% of the time. it's pretty crazy really.

GFS isn't a lakes cutter. Maybe this is the year where things shift east..

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with all the models pretty much agreeing on a lakes cutter at this point, it's hard to think that everything is going to switch back. as far as i've tracked winter storms...once models lock onto an inland cutter it's what happens 99% of the time. it's pretty crazy really.

You're actually right... Thinking back, inland cutters are usually very consistent. It's the coastal lows that never stay..

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with all the models pretty much agreeing on a lakes cutter at this point, it's hard to think that everything is going to switch back. as far as i've tracked winter storms...once models lock onto an inland cutter it's what happens 99% of the time. it's pretty crazy really.

I would agree with this if we were 2-3 days before the event but we are a week out. Anything can happen and things will probably change. Just be patient.

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with all the models pretty much agreeing on a lakes cutter at this point, it's hard to think that everything is going to switch back. as far as i've tracked winter storms...once models lock onto an inland cutter it's what happens 99% of the time. it's pretty crazy really.

It's not a LAKES cutter, it's an Appalachian cutter, there's a big difference. If it were a Lakes Cutter, the entire northeast would be seeing 50s and rain, in an Appalachian cutter, the western half of the northeast would get a snowstorm. There's enough blocking available for now to make the storm go further east rather than the lakes.

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with all the models pretty much agreeing on a lakes cutter at this point, it's hard to think that everything is going to switch back. as far as i've tracked winter storms...once models lock onto an inland cutter it's what happens 99% of the time. it's pretty crazy really.

Alot depends on how strong that clipper can get....which will help with less of a phase....right now if i was betting man, i would say get the umbrellas. People can say 6-7 days etc..........but when not one model shows a east coast snowstorm, thats a problem.

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Alot depends on how strong that clipper can get....which will help with less of a phase....right now if i was betting man, i would say get the umbrellas. People can say 6-7 days etc..........but when not one model shows a east coast snowstorm, thats a problem.

yes. i know i don't have any meteorological evidence to back it up but i sware every single time models have converged on some kind of a cutter 6-8 days out in the winter, it usually happens in some form. rarely do models shift back to a coastal. but when it's the other way around, it always changes. frustrating. this is about the time where you should probably give up on the threat and start looking to the next one...as models seem to have no problem sniffing out a cutter.

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with all the models pretty much agreeing on a lakes cutter at this point, it's hard to think that everything is going to switch back. as far as i've tracked winter storms...once models lock onto an inland cutter it's what happens 99% of the time. it's pretty crazy really.

A serious CAD situation setting up for the LV if it is indeed a lakes cutter

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You're actually right... Thinking back, inland cutters are usually very consistent. It's the coastal lows that never stay..

"Inland lows" have a massive area of real estate they can shift to without us noticing much change in impact. We really don't notice or care if the low ends up tracking over Pitt, Cleveland, or Indy. The result for everyone east is still the same. The margin of error for us on a coastal low is much, much smaller since small shifts can have large differences in impact. The inland low tracks shift the same as the coastal ones, but we just don't notice since we don't care as long as they're inland.

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