0z Model thread for nyc/philly

[gkrangers]

Euro wins?

[tombo82685]

Apps runner on this run. The cold air needs to come in faster.

i think the ridge out west has something to do with it. I thought i read snowgoose or analog say something in the 18z thread that if the ridge is more ampified its going to allow for the storm to cut inland because it can go negative quicker.

[atownwxwatcher]

Ouch tonight....

Looks like the ECM ,,,be funny if the ECM tonight switches roles!

[Animal]

Pulled precip from hr 168

[ag3]

This is 7 days out. Chill out.

This is in pure fantasy land.

[tombo82685]

Euro wins?

until it shows a i95 bomb at 0z or a cutter to minneapolis

[Allsnow]

Euro wins?

Congrats to chi on the euro....congrats to cleveland on the gfs,,,either way we get wet

[atownwxwatcher]

174-180

This has gone back towards a really ramped up version but inland....

I am still liking a track probably just south of Philly over SNJ and NNE from there ....

[Sundog]

Over amplified. Could be right but this is yet another solution. I'm not worried at all at this point. The fact that we'd still see snow before going to rain with this crappy track is nothing to sneeze at.

[MJO812]

Euro wins?

We are still 7 days away. A lot can change.

Ouch tonight....

Looks like the ECM ,,,be funny if the ECM tonight switches roles!

Congrats to Buffalo

[NEXtreme]

Weren't we thinking snow for today 7 days ago? What happen? Now we are thinking rain 7 days from now?

[Sundog]

Notice how it completely kills the clipper low that comes through first. Without that staying in place and not being shot to hell it will be hard to keep this low from cutting too close.

[mattinpa]

We are still 7 days away. A lot can change.

Congrats to Buffalo

Don't we need that big high to the north to be in a better position? I thought the storm might re-develop even where it was.

[SnoSki14]

See, the gfs didn't show a lake cutter, it went up through the Appalachians. Normally in the past, these events shift further and further west rather than east but we'll see what happens. The clipper before the storm really screws things up and the block weakens too quickly to allow the storm to go further east. Looks like a classic La Nina type storm on the 0z gfs though, if this run were to be correct, we would see 50s and heavy rain and wind, maybe even some convective activity.

[Sundog]

It would be very funny if no storm period develops 8 days from now. Not impossible as NEXtreme points out.

[mattinpa]

Weren't we thinking snow for today 7 days ago? What happen? Now we are thinking rain 7 days from now?

Right now rain is the favored solution on the models, but definitely subject to change. Wouldn't be surprised if the Euro shows a coastal tonight.

[Colin]

with all the models pretty much agreeing on a lakes cutter at this point, it's hard to think that everything is going to switch back. as far as i've tracked winter storms...once models lock onto an inland cutter it's what happens 99% of the time. it's pretty crazy really.

[mattinpa]

with all the models pretty much agreeing on a lakes cutter at this point, it's hard to think that everything is going to switch back. as far as i've tracked winter storms...once models lock onto an inland cutter it's what happens 99% of the time. it's pretty crazy really.

GFS isn't a lakes cutter. Maybe this is the year where things shift east..

[ptb127]

with all the models pretty much agreeing on a lakes cutter at this point, it's hard to think that everything is going to switch back. as far as i've tracked winter storms...once models lock onto an inland cutter it's what happens 99% of the time. it's pretty crazy really.

You're actually right... Thinking back, inland cutters are usually very consistent. It's the coastal lows that never stay..

[MJO812]

with all the models pretty much agreeing on a lakes cutter at this point, it's hard to think that everything is going to switch back. as far as i've tracked winter storms...once models lock onto an inland cutter it's what happens 99% of the time. it's pretty crazy really.

I would agree with this if we were 2-3 days before the event but we are a week out. Anything can happen and things will probably change. Just be patient.

[mattinpa]

Light-mod snow for the region hrs. 300 and 312.

[mattinpa]

I would agree with this if we were 2-3 days before the event but we are a week out. Anything can happen and things will probably change. Just be patient.

It's Colin you're talking to - LOL. Patience? BTW, just teasing you, Colin.

[SnoSki14]

with all the models pretty much agreeing on a lakes cutter at this point, it's hard to think that everything is going to switch back. as far as i've tracked winter storms...once models lock onto an inland cutter it's what happens 99% of the time. it's pretty crazy really.

It's not a LAKES cutter, it's an Appalachian cutter, there's a big difference. If it were a Lakes Cutter, the entire northeast would be seeing 50s and rain, in an Appalachian cutter, the western half of the northeast would get a snowstorm. There's enough blocking available for now to make the storm go further east rather than the lakes.

[Allsnow]

with all the models pretty much agreeing on a lakes cutter at this point, it's hard to think that everything is going to switch back. as far as i've tracked winter storms...once models lock onto an inland cutter it's what happens 99% of the time. it's pretty crazy really.

Alot depends on how strong that clipper can get....which will help with less of a phase....right now if i was betting man, i would say get the umbrellas. People can say 6-7 days etc..........but when not one model shows a east coast snowstorm, thats a problem.

[tombo82685]

this is the problem is phases in the pv

[MJO812]

0z GFS shows snow to rain for NYC and the surrounding areas.

[Colin]

Alot depends on how strong that clipper can get....which will help with less of a phase....right now if i was betting man, i would say get the umbrellas. People can say 6-7 days etc..........but when not one model shows a east coast snowstorm, thats a problem.

yes. i know i don't have any meteorological evidence to back it up but i sware every single time models have converged on some kind of a cutter 6-8 days out in the winter, it usually happens in some form. rarely do models shift back to a coastal. but when it's the other way around, it always changes. frustrating. this is about the time where you should probably give up on the threat and start looking to the next one...as models seem to have no problem sniffing out a cutter.

[Grothar]

with all the models pretty much agreeing on a lakes cutter at this point, it's hard to think that everything is going to switch back. as far as i've tracked winter storms...once models lock onto an inland cutter it's what happens 99% of the time. it's pretty crazy really.

A serious CAD situation setting up for the LV if it is indeed a lakes cutter

[jm1220]

You're actually right... Thinking back, inland cutters are usually very consistent. It's the coastal lows that never stay..

"Inland lows" have a massive area of real estate they can shift to without us noticing much change in impact. We really don't notice or care if the low ends up tracking over Pitt, Cleveland, or Indy. The result for everyone east is still the same. The margin of error for us on a coastal low is much, much smaller since small shifts can have large differences in impact. The inland low tracks shift the same as the coastal ones, but we just don't notice since we don't care as long as they're inland.

[mattinpa]

Looks cold through the end of the run. Pacific slightly better at the end but NAO more positive?