tombo82685 Posted December 6, 2010 Share Posted December 6, 2010 out to 6 hrs for me so far Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 6, 2010 Author Share Posted December 6, 2010 this is prob not going to have many people in this cause i believe everyone is in the chat listening to how dt is saying this is going to the lakes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
atownwxwatcher Posted December 6, 2010 Share Posted December 6, 2010 this is prob not going to have many people in this cause i believe everyone is in the chat listening to how dt is saying this is going to the lakes Then you know its going to be an east coast snowstorm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
isnice Posted December 6, 2010 Share Posted December 6, 2010 DT is in the chatroom for the 00z run: http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php?app=ipchat Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 6, 2010 Share Posted December 6, 2010 A lot of mets here in Central VA is saying this storm is going to take the N & W track and could be as far west as the lakes, they dismiss the past GFS runs. Certainly a possibility should the blocking break down a bit faster and the shortwave come in stronger/phase earlier. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 6, 2010 Author Share Posted December 6, 2010 john, i would favor that solution to, but you can't say for certain, its what 8 days out. Again it all comes down to that first clipper. Things can change so easily. Remember earthlights thread on what we need for todays potential, well if you looked about 3 days after he wrote that things were so vastly different it was scary. The only thing that sucks is it seems like that when a lake cutter is progged it never varies, with ec storms they always change Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted December 6, 2010 Share Posted December 6, 2010 john, i would favor that solution to, but you can't say for certain, its what 8 days out. Again it all comes down to that first clipper. Things can change so easily. Remember earthlights thread on what we need for todays potential, well if you looked about 3 days after he wrote that things were so vastly different it was scary. The only thing that sucks is it seems like that when a lake cutter is progged it never varies, with ec storms they always change i was just about to write this Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
opengeo Posted December 6, 2010 Share Posted December 6, 2010 john, i would favor that solution to, but you can't say for certain, its what 8 days out. Again it all comes down to that first clipper. Things can change so easily. Remember earthlights thread on what we need for todays potential, well if you looked about 3 days after he wrote that things were so vastly different it was scary. The only thing that sucks is it seems like that when a lake cutter is progged it never varies, with ec storms they always change I mentioned this earlier. It is true. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 6, 2010 Author Share Posted December 6, 2010 hr 84 has a sub 1000 clipper just a little north of the 18z gfs position Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 6, 2010 Author Share Posted December 6, 2010 hr 90 has sub 1000 low north of the ne nd border in canada Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Radders Posted December 6, 2010 Share Posted December 6, 2010 john, i would favor that solution to, but you can't say for certain, its what 8 days out. Again it all comes down to that first clipper. Things can change so easily. Remember earthlights thread on what we need for todays potential, well if you looked about 3 days after he wrote that things were so vastly different it was scary. The only thing that sucks is it seems like that when a lake cutter is progged it never varies, with ec storms they always change My theory on that one is that there is still a large amount of the storm track jumping around, but because we are looking at it from a completely different perspective, e.g. we have lost interest and are not focused on all the detailed specifics (temps/surface low positioning/850 temps/thickness etc) we just see it as a lakes cutter.. I bet if we lived in the OH valley area back towards IL, we would be just as stressed about every slight adjustment! Anyway, back to the GFS, I see the clipper looks like it is moving due East along the canadian border and MN at 96, and the energy from the next shortwave that maybe the storm is entering the NW US. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 6, 2010 Author Share Posted December 6, 2010 so far through hr 108 a good bit warmer in the mid west, 850 wise Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted December 6, 2010 Share Posted December 6, 2010 Why are people saying it's going to cut into the lakes, it may also cut through the Appalachians, the lakes are probably too far west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 6, 2010 Author Share Posted December 6, 2010 so far out to hr 129 doesnt look good, the cold air has hit a wall the storm is gathering strength in the plains Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 6, 2010 Author Share Posted December 6, 2010 hr 135 has a sub 1008 low in se ok 850s on 40 n parallel Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted December 6, 2010 Share Posted December 6, 2010 Tombo. Change title of this thread to "0z model thread for NYC/Philly". People think this is a main model thread. And they are wrong. We only care about our region here and that's why it's a regional model thread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CarolineWx Posted December 6, 2010 Share Posted December 6, 2010 I think its going to be way west this run by the look of the model so far Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
atownwxwatcher Posted December 6, 2010 Share Posted December 6, 2010 126 GFS surface Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 6, 2010 Author Share Posted December 6, 2010 Tombo. Change title of this thread to "0z model thread for NYC/Philly". People think this is a main model thread. And they are wrong. We only care about our region here and that's why it's a regional model thread. done Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted December 6, 2010 Share Posted December 6, 2010 Verbatiam the clipper is prob light snow at hr 120 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted December 6, 2010 Share Posted December 6, 2010 done That's perfect. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
atownwxwatcher Posted December 6, 2010 Share Posted December 6, 2010 144 hrs surface Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 6, 2010 Author Share Posted December 6, 2010 hr 162 has a primary over sw corner of va transfering to central va Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 6, 2010 Author Share Posted December 6, 2010 hr 168 is a sub 996 low over dc Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted December 6, 2010 Share Posted December 6, 2010 hr 162 has a primary over sw corner of va transfering to central va No preciep yet? Not seeing hr 162, one would think we start as snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 6, 2010 Author Share Posted December 6, 2010 hr 171 sub 992 over phl Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 6, 2010 Author Share Posted December 6, 2010 No preciep yet? Not seeing hr 162, one would think we start as snow yea we start as snow then go over to ice for a little then over to rain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 6, 2010 Author Share Posted December 6, 2010 very cold air behind the storm, looks like the winners are w pa and ny Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 6, 2010 Share Posted December 6, 2010 Apps runner on this run. The cold air needs to come in faster. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Riptide Posted December 6, 2010 Share Posted December 6, 2010 Apps runner on this run. The cold air needs to come in faster. The -NAO block went straight to &^!@ on this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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