Records Fall During Extended Heat Wave

[WeatherRusty]

As hot weather continues to bake much of the county’s midsection, the National Weather Service issued heat advisories and extreme heat warnings for parts of 15 southern states yesterday. Across states like Texas, Oklahoma, Arkansas, and Mississippi, temperatures set new daily high records, adding to the tally of thousands of temperature records that were broken so far this summer across a wide swatch of the country.

Here are some of the most striking records set during the past week:

• On Wednesday, the mercury hit 115°F in Fort Smith, Arkansas, which shattered the all-time record of 107 degrees, set back in 1896. Fayetteville, Ark. hit 110°F on Wednesday, which broke the 47-year-old record of 102°F. Little Rock also set a new all-time record high temperature, at 114°F.

• July 2011 was the warmest month on record in Lubbock, Texas. This year, the city has already had at least 34 days with temperatures at or exceeding 100°F, which breaks the previous record of 29 days set during the "Dust Bowl" era. With most of August still to come, this new record will probably end up even higher.

• Tyler, Texas hit a record-breaking 36-day streak of triple-digit temperatures on August 2. Dallas-Ft. Worth has had 34 straight days with temperatures above 100°F (the second longest streak for the area).

• It was also the hottest July on record in Oklahoma, where the state’s average temperature was 89.1°F. That’s more than seven degrees above average for July, and 1°F warmer than the previous record set in 1954.

• Most of extreme southwestern Oklahoma has had 43 consecutive days or more with temperatures above 100°F, and the streak is expected to continue well into August. On average, this region expects 30-40 days above the century mark each year. According to Gary McManus, Oklahoma associate state climatologist, the highest number of 100°F days ever in one year is 86, set in Hollis in 1956:

Continued Here

[LocoAko]

It is also worth noting that July 2011 was the hottest month ever recorded in the CONUS in Oklahoma, placing 1st out of 67,152 months since records began. The number of records in that region is just staggering and would have been even more impressive had there not been 1 or 2 random days in the OKC area where the temperature barely missed 100F.

More: http://ticker.mesonet.org/

Oklahoma July Warmest on Record for U.S.

Grover Cleveland was serving his second term as President in 1895. Victoria was the Queen of England and Will Rogers was still a teenager. It is also the year that statewide average temperature records begin for the United States. There have been 1399 months pass by since 1895. Multiply that number by 48 and you have 67,152 months of temperature records for the contiguous states. How hot was it in Oklahoma last month? Of those statewide average temperature records for the 48 states, none has been hotter than July 2011 in Oklahoma.According to data from the Oklahoma Mesonet, the statewide average temperature during July came in at 89.1 degrees, more than 7 degrees above normal. High temperatures alone were nearly 9 degrees above normal at 102.9 degrees. The National Climatic Data Center's statewide average for July stands at 88.9 degrees with data still being collected. Both values shattered the country’s previous record of 88.1 degrees held by another legendary hot month in Oklahoma, July 1954.

http://ticker.mesone...de_averages.png

The extreme heat is being fueled by one of the worst short-term droughts in state history. The drought’s beginnings date back to August 2010 but intensified beginning in the fall under the influence of La Niña. That climate phenomenon, marked by cooler than normal water temperatures in the eastern equatorial pacific, often means drier weather for the southern United States. The statewide average precipitation total of 16.73 inches since October 1, 2010, is the driest on record at nearly 14 inches below normal. Parts of southwestern Oklahoma have seen less than 6 inches of rain over that 10-month period. The loss of soil moisture and green vegetation has combined with the summer sunto bake the state unmercifully. July was the hottest month in Oklahoma City’s history, dating back to 1890. At 75 days through Sunday, Grandfield is quickly approaching the state’s all-time record for days with highs above 100 degrees. The record is 86 days, set at Hollis in the drought-fueled summer of 1956. Unfortunately, the heat has only intensified during the first week of August. The Mesonet has recorded a statewide average temperature of 92.1 degrees over the month’s first seven days with an average high of 107 degrees and an averagelow of 77 degrees. The state remains on course to record its warmest summer as well. The statewide average temperature for the summer thus far is 87 degrees, easily outpacing the current record of 85.2 degrees from 1934.

http://ticker.mesone...s_above_100.png

Unfortunately, widespread relief has yet to appear on the horizon. The latest seasonal drought outlook from the National Weather Service’s Climate PredictionCenter (CPC) calls for drought to persist or intensify in Oklahoma through the end of October. Farther out, the news is just as troubling. While the La Niña event faded in late spring, the CPC issued a La Niña watch last week for possible development once again this winter. The possibility of extending thecurrent drought further would be very bad news for a state already hit hard bythe heat and lack of rainfall.

Gary McManus

Associate State Climatologist

Oklahoma Climatological Survey

(405) 325-2253

[email protected]

[roardog]

As hot weather continues to bake much of the county’s midsection, the National Weather Service issued heat advisories and extreme heat warnings for parts of 15 southern states yesterday. Across states like Texas, Oklahoma, Arkansas, and Mississippi, temperatures set new daily high records, adding to the tally of thousands of temperature records that were broken so far this summer across a wide swatch of the country.

Here are some of the most striking records set during the past week:

• On Wednesday, the mercury hit 115°F in Fort Smith, Arkansas, which shattered the all-time record of 107 degrees, set back in 1896. Fayetteville, Ark. hit 110°F on Wednesday, which broke the 47-year-old record of 102°F. Little Rock also set a new all-time record high temperature, at 114°F.

• July 2011 was the warmest month on record in Lubbock, Texas. This year, the city has already had at least 34 days with temperatures at or exceeding 100°F, which breaks the previous record of 29 days set during the "Dust Bowl" era. With most of August still to come, this new record will probably end up even higher.

• Tyler, Texas hit a record-breaking 36-day streak of triple-digit temperatures on August 2. Dallas-Ft. Worth has had 34 straight days with temperatures above 100°F (the second longest streak for the area).

• It was also the hottest July on record in Oklahoma, where the state’s average temperature was 89.1°F. That’s more than seven degrees above average for July, and 1°F warmer than the previous record set in 1954.

• Most of extreme southwestern Oklahoma has had 43 consecutive days or more with temperatures above 100°F, and the streak is expected to continue well into August. On average, this region expects 30-40 days above the century mark each year. According to Gary McManus, Oklahoma associate state climatologist, the highest number of 100°F days ever in one year is 86, set in Hollis in 1956:

Continued Here

So this is proof of climate change? This is a thread that would be more appropriately placed in the weather forecasting and discussion section.

[WeatherRusty]

So this is proof of climate change? This is a thread that would be more appropriately placed in the weather forecasting and discussion section.

No, it supports the notion spread about by skeptics that the climate is cooling.

[tacoman25]

No, it supports the notion spread about by skeptics that the climate is cooling.

How many skeptics on here are claiming the climate is cooling? That is completely misrepresentative.

[WeatherRusty]

How many skeptics on here are claiming the climate is cooling? That is completely misrepresentative.

Maybe, but the Universe of Skepticism is very much more diverse than what we find on display here. Remember there has supposedly been NO warming since 1998 and the next decade is supposed to cool significantly because of -PDO and -AMO. Ask the average skeptic on the street if climate has been cooling or warming. Most would claim cooling or uncertainty and even if warming the data has been fudged by those unscrupulous climatologists who have conveniently "lost" the raw data.

[roardog]

No, it supports the notion spread about by skeptics that the climate is cooling.

It doesn't support anything. It would be like me showing how much of the country was below normal for several months leading up to Summer and say that shows the climate is cooling. Ridiculous.

[WeatherRusty]

It doesn't support anything. It would be like me showing how much of the country was below normal for several months leading up to Summer and say that shows the climate is cooling. Ridiculous.

Then why did you mention it?

We are not dealing with just above normal temperatures. These are record breakers in a very high numbers of cases. Most of it is due to a lack of nighttime cooling. Just what we would expect from greenhouse warming. More high nighttime lows than high daytime highs, but again, in isolation this proves very little.

Watch the world of flooding, heat waves and droughts as a function of time. Tell me the weather has not been a bit unusual the past several years, Not that anything is unprecedented, although some like the Russian heat wave and Pakistan floods may qualify. For whatever reason, the tornado outbreak this spring. The European heatwave in the early 90's. Excessive drought in Texas and Africa. Unusually heavy snows. La Nina? Of course. Negative AO? Of course. Unusually warm Atlantic? Of course. Climate change?

EDIT: I should have said the heatwave of 2003.

Also see post #17 below.

[tacoman25]

Then why did you mention it?

We are not dealing with just above normal temperatures. These are record breakers in a very high numbers of cases. Most of it is due to a lack of nighttime cooling. Just what we would expect from greenhouse warming. More high nighttime lows than high daytime highs, but again, in isolation this proves very little.

Watch the world of flooding, heat waves and droughts as a function of time. Tell me the weather has not been a bit unusual the past several years, Not that anything is unprecedented, although some like the Russian heat wave and Pakistan floods may qualify. For whatever reason, the tornado outbreak this spring. The European heatwave in the early 90's. Excessive drought in Texas and Africa. Unusually heavy snows. La Nina? Of course. Negative AO? Of course. Unusually warm Atlantic? Of course. Climate change?

Yes, climate is always in a state of flux. And that may, or may not have to do with all of those separate events you list.

[VAwxman]

Most of it is due to a lack of nighttime cooling. Just what we would expect from greenhouse warming. More high nighttime lows than high daytime highs...

Actually in the case of this July, this is wrong. All of the places you referred to in the initial post saw greater deviation on the highs than they did on the lows. This was also the case in the East. The Midwest is where the lows were inflated more than the highs, which stands to reason given all the soil moisture up there.

[tamarack]

This is quite impressive, but "1st out of 67,152 months since records began" is pure MSM hype. IMO, 936 months is a more accurate number.

--117 years 1895-2011

--2 months - The record will always be in either July or August. Maybe July alone is sufficient.

--4 states, at most - TX,OK,NM,AZ. No others will ever be in contention, and NM is a huge longshot.

That doesn't change the impressiveness of setting an all time/all place US record, however.

[tacoman25]

This is quite impressive, but "1st out of 67,152 months since records began" is pure MSM hype. IMO, 936 months is a more accurate number.

--117 years 1895-2011

--2 months - The record will always be in either July or August. Maybe July alone is sufficient.

--4 states, at most - TX,OK,NM,AZ. No others will ever be in contention, and NM is a huge longshot.

That doesn't change the impressiveness of setting an all time/all place US record, however.

I could actually see LA, AR, or KS being closer to contention than AZ or NM. A rather large percentage of those states is mountainous, which really puts a damper on the state averages.

[WeatherRusty]

Actually in the case of this July, this is wrong. All of the places you referred to in the initial post saw greater deviation on the highs than they did on the lows. This was also the case in the East. The Midwest is where the lows were inflated more than the highs, which stands to reason given all the soil moisture up there.

Here is the national picture (contiguous 48) for all of July:

Daily Minimum Temperatures: (Nighttime Low Temperatures)

6,106 out of a possible 178,946 records were set or tied for the warmest minimum temperature at a weather station in a given day.

443 out of a possible 178,946 records were set or tied for the coldest minimum temperature at a weather station in a given day.

Daily Maximum Temperatures: (Daytime High Temperatures)

2,722 out of a possible 179,743 records were set or tied for the warmest maximum temperature at a weather station in a given day.

763 out of a possible 179,743 records were set or tied for the coldest maximum temperature at a weather station in a given day.

My Source Article

[tamarack]

I could actually see LA, AR, or KS being closer to contention than AZ or NM. A rather large percentage of those states is mountainous, which really puts a damper on the state averages.

Quite possible, especially for AR. I think LA is too humid to get the afternoon triples-plus for enough days/stations, and it has so much shoreline, even on a bathwater GOM. State record heat in LA is 114; all the other states mentioned here have reached at least 120. KS is getting pretty far north - hard to picture a scenario where it's hotter than OK. Dump NM from the candidates - it has more mountains (I think) than AZ and less low level heat like Phoenix and Yuma.

Of course, the old record and the new were in the same state; why would I think another would grab the crown?

[tacoman25]

Quite possible, especially for AR. I think LA is too humid to get the afternoon triples-plus for enough days/stations, and it has so much shoreline, even on a bathwater GOM. State record heat in LA is 114; all the other states mentioned here have reached at least 120. KS is getting pretty far north - hard to picture a scenario where it's hotter than OK. Dump NM from the candidates - it has more mountains (I think) than AZ and less low level heat like Phoenix and Yuma.

Of course, the old record and the new were in the same state; why would I think another would grab the crown?

Right, but this also keeps the low temps higher overall.

Either way, it's obvious that OK will have the best shot at it most years - especially extreme ones. But I'm sure there are some years where TX, AR, or maybe even LA are hotter.

[BeastFromTheEast]

Boo hoo.. So summer is hotter?

Why do we have to forget about winter? The last few winters have been cold across most of the country.

I can cherry pick the months of data I want to

[BeastFromTheEast]

Then why did you mention it?

We are not dealing with just above normal temperatures. These are record breakers in a very high numbers of cases. Most of it is due to a lack of nighttime cooling. Just what we would expect from greenhouse warming. More high nighttime lows than high daytime highs, but again, in isolation this proves very little.

Watch the world of flooding, heat waves and droughts as a function of time. Tell me the weather has not been a bit unusual the past several years, Not that anything is unprecedented, although some like the Russian heat wave and Pakistan floods may qualify. For whatever reason, the tornado outbreak this spring. The European heatwave in the early 90's. Excessive drought in Texas and Africa. Unusually heavy snows. La Nina? Of course. Negative AO? Of course. Unusually warm Atlantic? Of course. Climate change?

Also..

Unusual? Compared to what? Tell me your definition of "normal". The Truth is that there is no solid "normal" in our world, weather wise. Wild Swings of weather happen and will continue to happen. Weather swings are the essence of life, the Yin and the Yang.

[LocoAko]

This is quite impressive, but "1st out of 67,152 months since records began" is pure MSM hype. IMO, 936 months is a more accurate number.

--117 years 1895-2011

--2 months - The record will always be in either July or August. Maybe July alone is sufficient.

--4 states, at most - TX,OK,NM,AZ. No others will ever be in contention, and NM is a huge longshot.

That doesn't change the impressiveness of setting an all time/all place US record, however.

True enough, and something I considered. I only take issue with you calling it "MSM hype". That article was written by the Oklahoma Climatological Survey.... not the "MSM".

[WeatherRusty]

Also..

Unusual? Compared to what? Tell me your definition of "normal". The Truth is that there is no solid "normal" in our world, weather wise. Wild Swings of weather happen and will continue to happen. Weather swings are the essence of life, the Yin and the Yang.

If climate is to change, at the hand of man or 100% naturally, the weather making up that climate must change by definition. By convention we use an averaged 30 year period to define the climate normal.

By your estimation we could never realize when climate is in the act of changing.

[tamarack]

True enough, and something I considered. I only take issue with you calling it "MSM hype". That article was written by the Oklahoma Climatological Survey.... not the "MSM".

My error about MSM. However, it's still hype, and professionals ought to avoid it, IMO.

[Clifford]

New Record: Total 2010/2011 Winter Cumulative Snowfall at Mt. Bachelor: 665"

Previous Record: 606"

Mt. Bachelor was open for 4^th of July Skiing for the first time in 16 years.

Mt. Washington in British Columbia also reported a record 2010/2011 winter cumulative snowfall of 750"

Snowbasin in Utah was open in June 2011 for the first year ever.

[LakeEffectKing]

New Record: Total 2010/2011 Winter Cumulative Snowfall at Mt. Bachelor: 665"

Previous Record: 606"

Mt. Bachelor was open for 4^th of July Skiing for the first time in 16 years.

Mt. Washington in British Columbia also reported a record 2010/2011 winter cumulative snowfall of 750"

Snowbasin in Utah was open in June 2011 for the first year ever.

Those are cold/snow records.....so they are just weather and to be ignored.

This thread fails strongly.

[WeatherRusty]

New Record: Total 2010/2011 Winter Cumulative Snowfall at Mt. Bachelor: 665"

Previous Record: 606"

Mt. Bachelor was open for 4^th of July Skiing for the first time in 16 years.

Mt. Washington in British Columbia also reported a record 2010/2011 winter cumulative snowfall of 750"

Snowbasin in Utah was open in June 2011 for the first year ever.

The atmosphere sure is juicy!

[tacoman25]

The atmosphere sure is juicy!

But not in TX!

Weird...dry/hot in the South and wet/cold in the North during a La Nina regime. Who'd a thunk.

[WeatherRusty]

Those are cold/snow records.....so they are just weather and to be ignored.

This thread fails strongly.

How can a thread stating factual data fail? I don't see anything about cold records, only snow.

[WeatherRusty]

But not in TX!

Weird...dry/hot in the South and wet/cold in the North during a La Nina regime. Who'd a thunk.

TX climate is dry/hot. This is an extreme case of both. Do you doubt the Earth's warmer lower atmosphere contains ~4% higher specific humidity than several decades ago? Remember your Clausius–Clapeyron relation? For each 1C (or is it 1F) of extra warmth the atmosphere can contain ~7% more water vapor.

[tacoman25]

TX climate is dry/hot. This is an extreme case of both. Do you doubt the Earth's warmer lower atmosphere contains ~4% higher specific humidity than several decades ago? Remember your Clausius–Clapeyron relation? For each 1C (or is it 1F) of extra warmth the atmosphere can contain ~7% more water vapor.

Is it slightly more humid than it used to be overall? I'd guess so, though I'm not sure there is data that supports any exact increase at this point.

Is this the reason several Western ski resorts set snowfall records this past winter? Probably not.

[VAwxman]

Here is the national picture (contiguous 48) for all of July:

Daily Minimum Temperatures: (Nighttime Low Temperatures)

6,106 out of a possible 178,946 records were set or tied for the warmest minimum temperature at a weather station in a given day.

443 out of a possible 178,946 records were set or tied for the coldest minimum temperature at a weather station in a given day.

Daily Maximum Temperatures: (Daytime High Temperatures)

2,722 out of a possible 179,743 records were set or tied for the warmest maximum temperature at a weather station in a given day.

763 out of a possible 179,743 records were set or tied for the coldest maximum temperature at a weather station in a given day.

My Source Article

Thanks for that. That's interesting and not what I would have expected given the maps from MDA that show the deviations from normal on the highs and lows. A lot of areas had greater deviations on the highs (well, south and east... midwest did not), but apparently not enough to actually nail down a ton or records.

[LakeEffectKing]

How can a thread stating factual data fail? I don't see anything about cold records, only snow.

I will be looking forward to a similar detailed post regarding any future extreme record cold snaps, somewhere on the globe, from you, as evidence AGAINST AGW, seeing as though you are implying the recent record warmth as evidence FOR AGW..............Should I hold my breath?

[WeatherRusty]

I will be looking forward to a similar detailed post regarding any future extreme record cold snaps, somewhere on the globe, from you, as evidence AGAINST AGW, seeing as though you are implying the recent record warmth as evidence FOR AGW..............Should I hold my breath?

LEK

I would gladly do so, but I am unlikely to beat the skeptics to the punch on that one! The thing is, we all know climate is changing toward a warmer state. We disagree on the cause and degree of eventual warming. Disregarding the anthropogenic aspect for a moment, why is it so difficult to acknowledge the changes in weather patterns that logically should be expected to occur even if we do not understand why and how all that well?

Why do you assume me to be so disingenuous, hypocritical or lacking in the integrity to not acknowledge something wrong with the science behind AGW if that eventuality were to occur? I don't view the recent record breaking events of the past decade in isolation, I see them as part of an evolving pattern due to a warming of the Earth. Record breaking cold has not been the trend, record breaking warmth has been. There still exists record breaking cold, just significantly less than record breaking warmth.