Jump to content
  • Member Statistics

    17,603
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    ArlyDude
    Newest Member
    ArlyDude
    Joined

Summer Thunderstorms/Severe Thread Part 2


am19psu

Recommended Posts

Watch possible

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1917

NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK

0205 PM CDT TUE AUG 09 2011

AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL/SERN NY...SWRN NEW ENGLAND...CNTRL/ERN

PA...NJ...NRN DEL

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 091905Z - 092000Z

ALTHOUGH THE THREAT OF DMGG WINDS AND PERHAPS AN ISOLATED TORNADO

MAY INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON...THE COVERAGE OF SEVERE STORMS REMAINS

SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN. A WW MAY BE PROPOSED RELATIVELY SOON.

ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE UPPER MID ATLANTIC...A VORT MAX OVER CNTRL

NY/PA AND BROADER ASCENT IN ASSOCIATION WITH A WEAK UPPER TROUGH

CONTINUE TO SUPPORT A GENERAL WARM ADVECTION REGIME...WITH A SURFACE

WARM FRONT CURRENTLY LOCATED ACROSS SRN NJ. LOW LEVEL CLOUD COVER IS

REMAINING FIRM OVER MUCH OF THE AREA...THOUGH POCKETS OF CLEARING

HAVE LED TO LOCALIZED DESTABILIZATION. RECENT VAD WIND PROFILE DATA

OVER NJ IS STILL SHOWING SUFFICIENT LOW LEVEL HELICITY FOR STORM

ROTATION...ESPECIALLY IN THE VICINITY OF THE WARM FRONT...WHERE

STORMS CONTINUE TO TRAIN ACROSS SRN NJ LEADING TO HEAVY RAINFALL.

DMGG WINDS AND PERHAPS A TORNADO REMAIN POSSIBLE ACROSS THE POPULOUS

AREAS OF NRN DEL NWD INTO NYC/LONG ISLAND.

MEANWHILE FARTHER W...A VORT MAX ACROSS WRN NY AND AN ADDITIONAL

CONVECTIVELY INDUCED WEAK VORT MAX ACROSS THE OH VALLEY /ORIGINATING

FROM YESTERDAYS CONVECTION IN THE UPPER MS VALLEY/ CONTINUE TO

PROGRESS EWD...AND MAY INFLUENCE STRONGER STORMS LATER THIS

AFTERNOON ACROSS CNTRL NY/PA...AND SERN NY/ERN PA. IN ADVANCE OF

THESE SUBTLE UPPER FEATURES AND AN EWD PROGRESSING COLD FRONT...MORE

WIDESPREAD CLEARING OF STRATUS HAS LED TO TEMPERATURE VALUES IN THE

MID 60S TO NEAR 80 F...LEADING TO MARGINAL INSTABILITY. DEEP LAYER

WINDS REMAIN STRONGEST IN A CORRIDOR FROM CNTRL NY/PA EWD...AND THE

20Z OUTLOOK WILL LIKELY EXPAND THE SLIGHT RISK WWD. MULTICELLULAR

CLUSTERS AND PERHAPS DISCRETE CELLS CAPABLE OF DMGG WIND AND/OR AN

ISOLATED TORNADO WILL BE POSSIBLE.

..HURLBUT.. 08/09/2011

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...OKX...ALY...PHI...BGM...CTP...

Link to comment
Share on other sites

effh.gif?1312916760937

IMpressive: 40-60kt's bulk shear, with widespread 40-50kts vertical shear..

sbcp.gif?1312916827177

Cape still needs to build back into the region, but if the lift is strong enough, it might be able to overcome this help maintain storms with the shear available. WOuldn't be surprised to see a handful of tornado warnings from now untill sundown:

Sun poking back out here, won't take much to build some instability:

1kmv.gif?1312916951225

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I was over in NJ just across the Del. Memorial Bridge having lunch with my sister. We left at 12:30pm because it was getting so dark outside, and I had to make it back to work in Wilmington for a 1pm meeting. Really started raining while I was on the up-ramp part of the bridge, and it was raining so hard you almost could not see the tops of the bridge spans. Coming down the other side it felt like I was on a water-toboggan ride at Hershey Park! Paid the toll and noticed many, many people had pulled off just past the tolls and were waiting it out. Most people in motion had their hazards flashing. Took I-295 to Rt. 141 north. Got to Lancaster Pike and saw branches all over the place, and all the power was out to the lights. Got to a power-less office and was without power til 2:45pm. Many large 6" branches laying on the ground around the site. Will be an interesting ride home to West Chester tonight!

Link to comment
Share on other sites

NOW THIS! 6ABC.COM

Folks: This is either an EF-4 or a downdraft/downburst. Since we don't get tornadoes that large, and since this was in a highly populated

area with no better pictures than we've already seen, and since NWS had 20 spotters in the area that saw no tornado, we need better

evidence than this stuff. Just called NWS and they're not even planning to send anyone to inspect the damage.

Glenn

080911_ic_storms_VIEWER_1_ominous_skies.jpg

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Just pretty much a soaking thunderstorm by the time the storm got where I was near Vineland and then back into Buena. Over 1.25 here last I checked, sun back out now, gonna get unstable again fast. And Ralph, I saw that same cloud you saw, was definitely only scud, not a funnel IMO. Nothing down here was anywhere near severe at the time.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Glenn,

I should have been a bit more selective with my wording when titling that picture. Just wanted to point out a cool looking pic, regardless of tornadic activity or not. "NOW THIS" is more or lesss internet slang for pretty cool. and with the Couplet picture that was posted earlier, it wasn;t entirely outta the question. But i see what you're saying, and that should be clearly stated when looking at that picture. miscommunication on my behalf.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Hm, can't tell if that's Talleyville. The road sign is throwing me off-it almost looks like Rte 4 and with the Hospital sign I' m thinking it's near Christiana. What a pic though!

It looks like a traffic circle to me and I don't know of any circles in Newark/Christiana/Stanton area.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Hm, can't tell if that's Talleyville. The road sign is throwing me off-it almost looks like Rte 4 and with the Hospital sign I' m thinking it's near Christiana. What a pic though!

It looks like a traffic circle to me and I don't know of any circles in Newark/Christiana/Stanton area.

can't read the signs but it's definitely not talleyville

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Those cells are barely holding together.. Gotta keep an eye on them though.

The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a

Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of

northern and western New Jersey

central and eastern New York

eastern Pennsylvania

Effective this Tuesday afternoon and evening from 420 PM until

900 PM EDT.

Hail to 1.5 inches in diameter... thunderstorm wind gusts to 70

mph... and dangerous lightning are possible in these areas.

The Severe Thunderstorm Watch area is approximately along and 60

statute miles east and west of a line from 50 miles northeast of

Utica New York to 25 miles west of Wilmington Delaware. For a

complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline

update (wous64 kwns wou5).

Remember... a Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are

favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch

area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for

threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements

and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally

do produce tornadoes.

Other watch information... continue... ww 753... ww 754...

Discussion... isolated intense thunderstorms continue to strengthen

along weak front moving across PA/NY. A narrow corridor of heating

ahead of the storms... coupled with relatively strong winds

aloft... may be sufficient for scattered damaging wind and hail

occurrences this afternoon and early evening.

Aviation... a few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft

to 1.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60

knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 450. Mean storm

motion vector 27025.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Tstorm Watch out

WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION FOR WATCH 755

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ

416 PM EDT TUE AUG 9 2011

COUNTY SPECIFIC MESSAGE:

/O.NEW.KPHI.SV.A.0755.110809T2020Z-110810T0100Z/

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HAS ISSUED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH

755 IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS

IN NEW JERSEY THIS WATCH INCLUDES 9 COUNTIES

IN CENTRAL NEW JERSEY

MERCER

IN NORTHERN NEW JERSEY

HUNTERDON MORRIS SOMERSET

SUSSEX WARREN

IN SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY

BURLINGTON CAMDEN GLOUCESTER

IN PENNSYLVANIA THIS WATCH INCLUDES 10 COUNTIES

IN EAST CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA

BERKS LEHIGH NORTHAMPTON

IN NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA

CARBON MONROE

IN SOUTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA

BUCKS CHESTER DELAWARE

MONTGOMERY PHILADELPHIA

THIS INCLUDES THE CITIES OF...ALLENTOWN...BETHLEHEM...

BLAIRSTOWN...CAMDEN...CHERRY HILL...DEPTFORD...DOYLESTOWN...

EASTON...FLEMINGTON...GLASSBORO...JIM THORPE...MEDIA...

MOORESTOWN...MORRISTOWN...MOUNT HOLLY...NEWTON...NORRISTOWN...

PHILADELPHIA...READING...SOMERSET...STROUDSBURG...

TRENTON AND WEST CHESTER.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 755

NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK

420 PM EDT TUE AUG 9 2011

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

NORTHERN AND WESTERN NEW JERSEY

CENTRAL AND EASTERN NEW YORK

EASTERN PENNSYLVANIA

EFFECTIVE THIS TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 420 PM UNTIL

900 PM EDT.

HAIL TO 1.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 70

MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 60

STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 50 MILES NORTHEAST OF

UTICA NEW YORK TO 25 MILES WEST OF WILMINGTON DELAWARE. FOR A

COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE

UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU5).

REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE

FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH

AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR

THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS

AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY

DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 753...WW 754...

DISCUSSION...ISOLATED INTENSE THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN

ALONG WEAK FRONT MOVING ACROSS PA/NY. A NARROW CORRIDOR OF HEATING

AHEAD OF THE STORMS...COUPLED WITH RELATIVELY STRONG WINDS

ALOFT...MAY BE SUFFICIENT FOR SCATTERED DAMAGING WIND AND HAIL

OCCURRENCES THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.

AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT

TO 1.5 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60

KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 450. MEAN STORM

MOTION VECTOR 27025.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Those storms seem to be expanding north. The sun is out here again, now 78.1 and rising. Since they're on the border between KDIX and KCCX, it's hard to tell the severity of them, but given the sunshine now, they could continue to develop

not severe yet...strong right now but some gusty winds on em...they could get there though.

and major :axe: to the spc for their handling today again...not at all impressed.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Archived

This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.
×
×
  • Create New...