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Tracking Tuesday August 9th Thunderstorm Potential


bluewave

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The conditions behind the rain coming in are the big factor here. We may not have much heating time left.

There is some clearing and breaks in the clouds behind this current line of rain in c-pa heading into e-pa. Not sure if its enough but id say we get into that by 2/3-ish

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There is some clearing and breaks in the clouds behind this current line of rain in c-pa heading into e-pa. Not sure if its enough but id say we get into that by 2/3-ish

Maybe we can get Earthlight to launch a balloon and get us a fresh sounding after the rain.

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There is some clearing and breaks in the clouds behind this current line of rain in c-pa heading into e-pa. Not sure if its enough but id say we get into that by 2/3-ish

the clearing line is still west of Lancaster PA-no way that gets to NYC before 4 or more likely 5pm...too little too late for heating

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Statement as of 2:44 PM EDT on August 09, 2011

... A Severe Thunderstorm Warning remains in effect until 315 PM EDT

for northeastern Monmouth and east central Middlesex counties...

At 242 PM EDT... National Weather Service Doppler radar continued to

indicate a severe thunderstorm capable of producing damaging winds in

excess of 60 mph. This storm was located near yorketown... or 13

miles southeast of New Brunswick... moving northeast at 15 mph.

The severe thunderstorm will be near...

Robertsville and Old Bridge by 255 PM EDT...

Marlboro by 300 PM EDT...

Morganville and 8 miles southeast of Madison Park by 305 PM EDT...

Matawan by 310 PM EDT...

Holmdel... Lincroft... Strathmore and Middletown by 315 PM EDT...

Precautionary/preparedness actions...

Damaging winds up to 60 mph were reported in northeast Millstone Township

with this storm. This is a dangerous storm... seek safe shelter and

stay away from windows!

Please report hail or strong winds to the National Weather Service by

calling toll free... 1-877-633-6772... when you can do so safely.

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Statement as of 2:53 PM EDT on August 09, 2011

The National Weather Service in Mount Holly NJ has issued an

* Urban and Small Stream Flood Advisory for...

Morris County in northern New Jersey...

Somerset County in northern New Jersey...

Middlesex County in northern New Jersey...

* until 545 PM EDT

* at 252 PM EDT... National Weather Service Doppler radar indicated

that more than two inches of rain had fallen across portions of the

advised area. This was enough rain to produce minor flooding in poor

drainage and low lying areas.

Precautionary/preparedness actions...

Do not drive your vehicle into areas where the water covers the

roadway. The water depth may be too great to allow your car to cross

safely. Move to higher ground.

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mcd1917.gif

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1917

NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK

0205 PM CDT TUE AUG 09 2011

AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL/SERN NY...SWRN NEW ENGLAND...CNTRL/ERN PA...NJ...NRN DEL CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE VALID 091905Z - 092000Z

ALTHOUGH THE THREAT OF DMGG WINDS AND PERHAPS AN ISOLATED TORNADO MAY INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON...THE COVERAGE OF SEVERE STORMS REMAINS SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN. A WW MAY BE PROPOSED RELATIVELY SOON.

ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE UPPER MID ATLANTIC...A VORT MAX OVER CNTRL NY/PA AND BROADER ASCENT IN ASSOCIATION WITH A WEAK UPPER TROUGH CONTINUE TO SUPPORT A GENERAL WARM ADVECTION REGIME...WITH A SURFACE WARM FRONT CURRENTLY LOCATED ACROSS SRN NJ. LOW LEVEL CLOUD COVER IS REMAINING FIRM OVER MUCH OF THE AREA...THOUGH POCKETS OF CLEARING HAVE LED TO LOCALIZED DESTABILIZATION. RECENT VAD WIND PROFILE DATA OVER NJ IS STILL SHOWING SUFFICIENT LOW LEVEL HELICITY FOR STORM ROTATION...ESPECIALLY IN THE VICINITY OF THE WARM FRONT...WHERE STORMS CONTINUE TO TRAIN ACROSS SRN NJ LEADING TO HEAVY RAINFALL. DMGG WINDS AND PERHAPS A TORNADO REMAIN POSSIBLE ACROSS THE POPULOUS AREAS OF NRN DEL NWD INTO NYC/LONG ISLAND.

MEANWHILE FARTHER W...A VORT MAX ACROSS WRN NY AND AN ADDITIONAL CONVECTIVELY INDUCED WEAK VORT MAX ACROSS THE OH VALLEY /ORIGINATING FROM YESTERDAYS CONVECTION IN THE UPPER MS VALLEY/ CONTINUE TO PROGRESS EWD...AND MAY INFLUENCE STRONGER STORMS LATER THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS CNTRL NY/PA...AND SERN NY/ERN PA. IN ADVANCE OF THESE SUBTLE UPPER FEATURES AND AN EWD PROGRESSING COLD FRONT...MORE WIDESPREAD CLEARING OF STRATUS HAS LED TO TEMPERATURE VALUES IN THE MID 60S TO NEAR 80 F...LEADING TO MARGINAL INSTABILITY. DEEP LAYER WINDS REMAIN STRONGEST IN A CORRIDOR FROM CNTRL NY/PA EWD...AND THE 20Z OUTLOOK WILL LIKELY EXPAND THE SLIGHT RISK WWD. MULTICELLULAR CLUSTERS AND PERHAPS DISCRETE CELLS CAPABLE OF DMGG WIND AND/OR AN ISOLATED TORNADO WILL BE POSSIBLE.

..HURLBUT.. 08/09/2011

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