bluewave Posted August 9, 2011 Share Posted August 9, 2011 Tracking storms... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted August 9, 2011 Share Posted August 9, 2011 The conditions behind the rain coming in are the big factor here. We may not have much heating time left. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted August 9, 2011 Share Posted August 9, 2011 The conditions behind the rain coming in are the big factor here. We may not have much heating time left. There is some clearing and breaks in the clouds behind this current line of rain in c-pa heading into e-pa. Not sure if its enough but id say we get into that by 2/3-ish Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted August 9, 2011 Share Posted August 9, 2011 There is some clearing and breaks in the clouds behind this current line of rain in c-pa heading into e-pa. Not sure if its enough but id say we get into that by 2/3-ish Maybe we can get Earthlight to launch a balloon and get us a fresh sounding after the rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted August 9, 2011 Share Posted August 9, 2011 The heavier tstorms are starting to slowly expand northward. Gonna be close for NYC for any good storms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted August 9, 2011 Share Posted August 9, 2011 There is some clearing and breaks in the clouds behind this current line of rain in c-pa heading into e-pa. Not sure if its enough but id say we get into that by 2/3-ish the clearing line is still west of Lancaster PA-no way that gets to NYC before 4 or more likely 5pm...too little too late for heating Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
green tube Posted August 9, 2011 Share Posted August 9, 2011 that blossoming area in mercer and southern middlesex and somerset counties is starting to produce some lightning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted August 9, 2011 Share Posted August 9, 2011 It's also heading a bit more north and could clip southern portions of NYC that blossoming area in mercer and southern middlesex and somerset counties is starting to produce some lightning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwarlock Posted August 9, 2011 Share Posted August 9, 2011 we got pretty good downpours for about a half hour, no thunder no lightning no wind, probably got between a half inch and 3/4s in about an hour and a half but now its stop and skies look like they are trying to brighten a bit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted August 9, 2011 Share Posted August 9, 2011 Heavier storms developing more north with that rain line. Could be in line for NYC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SVT450R Posted August 9, 2011 Share Posted August 9, 2011 Pouring rain here picked up 1.73'' in past hour. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Drz1111 Posted August 9, 2011 Share Posted August 9, 2011 There's some rotation associated with that SVR warned cell down by Trenton. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted August 9, 2011 Author Share Posted August 9, 2011 Statement as of 2:44 PM EDT on August 09, 2011 ... A Severe Thunderstorm Warning remains in effect until 315 PM EDT for northeastern Monmouth and east central Middlesex counties... At 242 PM EDT... National Weather Service Doppler radar continued to indicate a severe thunderstorm capable of producing damaging winds in excess of 60 mph. This storm was located near yorketown... or 13 miles southeast of New Brunswick... moving northeast at 15 mph. The severe thunderstorm will be near... Robertsville and Old Bridge by 255 PM EDT... Marlboro by 300 PM EDT... Morganville and 8 miles southeast of Madison Park by 305 PM EDT... Matawan by 310 PM EDT... Holmdel... Lincroft... Strathmore and Middletown by 315 PM EDT... Precautionary/preparedness actions... Damaging winds up to 60 mph were reported in northeast Millstone Township with this storm. This is a dangerous storm... seek safe shelter and stay away from windows! Please report hail or strong winds to the National Weather Service by calling toll free... 1-877-633-6772... when you can do so safely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted August 9, 2011 Share Posted August 9, 2011 The severe cell is in line for Brooklyn and Queens, if it holds together. 60+mph winds with it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted August 9, 2011 Author Share Posted August 9, 2011 Statement as of 2:53 PM EDT on August 09, 2011 The National Weather Service in Mount Holly NJ has issued an * Urban and Small Stream Flood Advisory for... Morris County in northern New Jersey... Somerset County in northern New Jersey... Middlesex County in northern New Jersey... * until 545 PM EDT * at 252 PM EDT... National Weather Service Doppler radar indicated that more than two inches of rain had fallen across portions of the advised area. This was enough rain to produce minor flooding in poor drainage and low lying areas. Precautionary/preparedness actions... Do not drive your vehicle into areas where the water covers the roadway. The water depth may be too great to allow your car to cross safely. Move to higher ground. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sock Puppet Posted August 9, 2011 Share Posted August 9, 2011 Wont hold my breath The severe cell is in line for Brooklyn and Queens, if it holds together. 60+mph winds with it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted August 9, 2011 Share Posted August 9, 2011 Yeah nothing about that cell looks severe. Lots of heavy rain and flash flooding however across much of central NJ Wont hold my breath Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted August 9, 2011 Share Posted August 9, 2011 That cell weakened. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted August 9, 2011 Share Posted August 9, 2011 just not enough instability to mainstain the storms, lots of rain, not much else. This now won't clear with any real daytime heating behind it, so we will have to rely on whatever instability moves east after this line comes through. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LocoAko Posted August 9, 2011 Share Posted August 9, 2011 MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1917 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0205 PM CDT TUE AUG 09 2011 AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL/SERN NY...SWRN NEW ENGLAND...CNTRL/ERN PA...NJ...NRN DEL CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE VALID 091905Z - 092000Z ALTHOUGH THE THREAT OF DMGG WINDS AND PERHAPS AN ISOLATED TORNADO MAY INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON...THE COVERAGE OF SEVERE STORMS REMAINS SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN. A WW MAY BE PROPOSED RELATIVELY SOON. ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE UPPER MID ATLANTIC...A VORT MAX OVER CNTRL NY/PA AND BROADER ASCENT IN ASSOCIATION WITH A WEAK UPPER TROUGH CONTINUE TO SUPPORT A GENERAL WARM ADVECTION REGIME...WITH A SURFACE WARM FRONT CURRENTLY LOCATED ACROSS SRN NJ. LOW LEVEL CLOUD COVER IS REMAINING FIRM OVER MUCH OF THE AREA...THOUGH POCKETS OF CLEARING HAVE LED TO LOCALIZED DESTABILIZATION. RECENT VAD WIND PROFILE DATA OVER NJ IS STILL SHOWING SUFFICIENT LOW LEVEL HELICITY FOR STORM ROTATION...ESPECIALLY IN THE VICINITY OF THE WARM FRONT...WHERE STORMS CONTINUE TO TRAIN ACROSS SRN NJ LEADING TO HEAVY RAINFALL. DMGG WINDS AND PERHAPS A TORNADO REMAIN POSSIBLE ACROSS THE POPULOUS AREAS OF NRN DEL NWD INTO NYC/LONG ISLAND. MEANWHILE FARTHER W...A VORT MAX ACROSS WRN NY AND AN ADDITIONAL CONVECTIVELY INDUCED WEAK VORT MAX ACROSS THE OH VALLEY /ORIGINATING FROM YESTERDAYS CONVECTION IN THE UPPER MS VALLEY/ CONTINUE TO PROGRESS EWD...AND MAY INFLUENCE STRONGER STORMS LATER THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS CNTRL NY/PA...AND SERN NY/ERN PA. IN ADVANCE OF THESE SUBTLE UPPER FEATURES AND AN EWD PROGRESSING COLD FRONT...MORE WIDESPREAD CLEARING OF STRATUS HAS LED TO TEMPERATURE VALUES IN THE MID 60S TO NEAR 80 F...LEADING TO MARGINAL INSTABILITY. DEEP LAYER WINDS REMAIN STRONGEST IN A CORRIDOR FROM CNTRL NY/PA EWD...AND THE 20Z OUTLOOK WILL LIKELY EXPAND THE SLIGHT RISK WWD. MULTICELLULAR CLUSTERS AND PERHAPS DISCRETE CELLS CAPABLE OF DMGG WIND AND/OR AN ISOLATED TORNADO WILL BE POSSIBLE. ..HURLBUT.. 08/09/2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted August 9, 2011 Share Posted August 9, 2011 Impressive TVS, or I guess WVS south of Long Island about a half-hour ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted August 9, 2011 Share Posted August 9, 2011 Impressive TVS, or I guess WVS south of Long Island about a half-hour ago. Yeah, saw that. storms out west looking good. Can totally see the atmosphere change after the rain came through. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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