Record longest -NAO streak (going back to 1950) set today

[HM]

That's the main thing almost everyone misses. I hear it too. "The NAO crushed the entire la nina signal".

I don't think that's a conversation to have until one looks at the NPAC setup, which actually helped feed the NAO side. It was not just an Atlantic domination. The Pacific managed to be set up in such a way to allow that, or at the least, constructively interfere with the "typical" la nina configuration.

Yes, exactly. I think that you me and nzucker are all in agreement here about that. Unfortunately, last winter is going to really screw up perceptions I think.

And i just want to say before we continue that no where in this thread did I state or am I stating an actual forecast. I am simply arguing the points that were being made.

[nzucker]

I am not sure what you are disagreeing with me about.

You seem to be leaning pretty warm this winter, and you seem to think that even with an historic solar minimum a strong La Niña will more times than not cause a warm/dry pattern in the Mid-Atlantic. I'm not sure I agree based on last winter's experience. 56-57 is definitely out of line with most of the analogs that I'm touting, although it's definitely on the list for being a weaker Niña in a multi-year -ENSO/-PDO patterned linked to more widespread and long-term cooling in the Pacific.

[HM]

You seem to be leaning pretty warm this winter, and you seem to think that even with an historic solar minimum a strong La Niña will more times than not cause a warm/dry pattern in the Mid-Atlantic. I'm not sure I agree based on last winter's experience. 56-57 is definitely out of line with most of the analogs that I'm touting, although it's definitely on the list for being a weaker Niña in a multi-year -ENSO/-PDO patterned linked to more widespread and long-term cooling in the Pacific.

Actually I didn't say any of that. I was simply arguing the logic of Virginiahippie.

[nzucker]

Yes, exactly. I think that you me and nzucker are all in agreement here about that. Unfortunately, last winter is going to really screw up perceptions I think.

And i just want to say before we continue that no where in this thread did I state or am I stating an actual forecast. I am simply arguing the points that were being made.

Yes, I think we're all in agreement about the effects of the Aleutian ridge and how last year had a strong Pacific signal for a cold winter in the eastern CONUS.

BTW I see where you are coming from, HM. I have a lot of respect for the study you put into Pacific/MJO-induced patterns, and I'm sure that the MJO moving into Phase 8 last winter also amplified the polar blocking signal, something we might not be able to rely on this winter. I believe the MJO pushing into Phase 8 was largely responsible for the 1/27 snowstorm, which was the most widespread in that everyone from New England to DC got a decent event.

[OKpowdah]

Thats all very well, but based on the LR discussions Ive been reading by Steve D and others combined with where the teleconnections seems to be going and the prospects of -NAO/-AO, -QBO, and a basin-wide, weak La Nina I see no reason at this time to expect a strong SE Ridge. More of a ridge that is weak and easily squashed or moved around. I dont think it will be as cold and snowy as last Winter. But I dont think it will be abnormally warm and dry either.

You're taking too much of a one dimensional perspective. A -NAO does not always guarantee a beat down of the SE ridge. It may be more east based, or the dipole may be at a slightly higher latitude.

Also, I wish everyone would stop trying to compare to last winter (not just aimed at you). We can take away useful information from last winter, like that we're coming off of a near-strong La Nina, +QBO, etc. BUT there is absolutely zero use in referring to sensible weather from last winter. Last year has no use as an analog.

[nzucker]

You're taking too much of a one dimensional perspective. A -NAO does not always guarantee a beat down of the SE ridge. It may be more east based, or the dipole may be at a slightly higher latitude.

Also, I wish everyone would stop trying to compare to last winter (not just aimed at you). We can take away useful information from last winter, like that we're coming off of a near-strong La Nina, +QBO, etc. BUT there is absolutely zero use in referring to sensible weather from last winter. Last year has no use as an analog.

Well it does have some use...it proved that the East Coast could see a big winter in a powerful Niña, and that even a strong Niña could have well below normal heights in the Southeast if the -NAO signal is strong enough. We'd never really had a winter like this before, except for 55-56 to a lesser extent (had the one KU in March), and reaching back there, 1916-17, which was probably a moderate Niña.

[CoastalWx]

Yes, I think we're all in agreement about the effects of the Aleutian ridge and how last year had a strong Pacific signal for a cold winter in the eastern CONUS.

BTW I see where you are coming from, HM. I have a lot of respect for the study you put into Pacific/MJO-induced patterns, and I'm sure that the MJO moving into Phase 8 last winter also amplified the polar blocking signal, something we might not be able to rely on this winter. I believe the MJO pushing into Phase 8 was largely responsible for the 1/27 snowstorm, which was the most widespread in that everyone from New England to DC got a decent event.

That is true...part of the reason for a great January was thanks to the Pac tropical forcing. Again, another argument to be careful when comparing seasons.

[OKpowdah]

Well it does have some use...it proved that the East Coast could see a big winter in a powerful Niña, and that even a strong Niña could have well below normal heights in the Southeast if the -NAO signal is strong enough. We'd never really had a winter like this before, except for 55-56 to a lesser extent (had the one KU in March), and reaching back there, 1916-17, which was probably a moderate Niña.

Useful to keep in mind for sure, in terms of the spread of possibilities. I mean, we don't exactly have an extensive dataset of near-strong Ninas/+QBO to work with, but that's also why it's good to try to avoid analogs sometimes, because a lot of last year was supported by sub-seasonal variability.

[nzucker]

That is true...part of the reason for a great January was thanks to the Pac tropical forcing. Again, another argument to be careful when comparing seasons.

But the most below-normal temperatures were in December, thanks to the -NAO block. So that does support my claim to some extent about the power of the blocking regime we're in.

[HM]

The HT relationship did exactly what it was suppose to do last year. the +QBO/La Nina slowed the easterlies down and continued to play against the developing SSW. It was the solar factor (which has an early winter easterly correlation always, regardless of QBO state [the QBO dictates speed of polar night jet destruction which is why the +QBO warming events usually happen late]) that produced the epic blocking. This instability would then feed the Tropics in a way to lead to the MJO event that ultimately got the PNA going and extended the cold pattern into January.

[HM]

But the most below-normal temperatures were in December, thanks to the -NAO block. So that does support my claim to some extent about the power of the blocking regime we're in.

The drop off of the solar parameters in the autumn/early winter was basically the reason for the blocking. We can only increase from here but it fluctuates like any cycle with notable harmonics. I don't see how we can have the same epic block this year unless the solar parameters dip as low as they did last autumn again. Now, I am not saying they are high by any means currently and they certainly are responsible for the long-duration -NAO period we are in. But the average solar wind speeds lately have been running at/above normal (400 km/s). They were like this to some extent at this time last year but then they dropped like a rock as we moved into the cold season.

What will happen this year when we cycle downward again with solar activity? It won't obviously go as low as the dips did in the 2008-2011 period but will they be low enough to produce epic blocking? Or just low enough for more typical blocking episodes?

[SoCoWx]

I know whats going on in the Pacific. And I know that where the ridging sets up in the pacific has an effect. I was in NO way comparing last winter to future winters and NEVER said it was an analogue. People seem to misconstrue me and think that just because I feel certain teleconnections point to cold Winter once more, that that is what I think will happen. NO. That isn't true. I do feel a colder winter is on tap and snowfall is totally questionable at this point. I was saying that I do not feel that this winter will be a blockbuster like last year was...however, I do think it will be at least a little better than normal, if not near normal in most respects. I am fully aware that the Pacific can royally screw everything up and if it does, I will change my thoughts accordingly.

[CoastalWx]

But the most below-normal temperatures were in December, thanks to the -NAO block. So that does support my claim to some extent about the power of the blocking regime we're in.

I think where we need to be most careful when deciding on temps during a Nina/possible -NAO regime, is south of NYC and especially DC. I think it was Will that mentioned -QBO's tend to enhance the gradient potential..probably thanks to the Hadley relationships that HM talks about. So any displacement of the NPAC ridge or displacement of the NAO ridge would probably set up one hell of a gradient near the MA...even with the NAO. Over the northeast or northern tier, it's easier to side on the cooler side...if a -NAO does set up shop.

[nzucker]

The drop off of the solar parameters in the autumn/early winter was basically the reason for the blocking. We can only increase from here but it fluctuates like any cycle with notable harmonics. I don't see how we can have the same epic block this year unless the solar parameters dip as low as they did last autumn again. Now, I am not saying they are high by any means currently and they certainly are responsible for the long-duration -NAO period we are in. But the average solar wind speeds lately have been running at/above normal (400 km/s). They were like this to some extent at this time last year but then they dropped like a rock as we moved into the cold season.

What will happen this year when we cycle downward again with solar activity? It won't obviously go as low as the dips did in the 2008-2011 period but will they be low enough to produce epic blocking? Or just low enough for more typical blocking episodes?

Also, now that we're in a descending -QBO regime, according to the HT relationship the increasing solar activity shouldn't be correlated to much of a blocking signal either early or late in the winter.

[HM]

I know whats going on in the Pacific. And I know that where the ridging sets up in the pacific has an effect. I was in NO way comparing last winter to future winters and NEVER said it was an analogue. People seem to misconstrue me and think that just because I feel certain teleconnections point to cold Winter once more, that that is what I think will happen. NO. That isn't true. I do feel a colder winter is on tap and snowfall is totally questionable at this point. I was saying that I do not feel that this winter will be a blockbuster like last year was...however, I do think it will be at least a little better than normal, if not near normal in most respects. I am fully aware that the Pacific can royally screw everything up and if it does, I will change my thoughts accordingly.

Hey man, I can't speak for other people's intentions but mine weren't to question your motives or forecast. Your forecast is your forecast and that is fine. I was simply trying to suggest that by your logic to Wes, that something else might go wrong. To say that this year's La Nina wont be as strong as last year and so that is why something means something I think is dangerous logic. Otherwise, no hard feelings and I hope your forecast works out.

[nzucker]

I think where we need to be most careful when deciding on temps during a Nina/possible -NAO regime, is south of NYC and especially DC. I think it was Will that mentioned -QBO's tend to enhance the gradient potential..probably thanks to the Hadley relationships that HM talks about. So any displacement of the NPAC ridge or displacement of the NAO ridge would probably set up one hell of a gradient near the MA...even with the NAO. Over the northeast or northern tier, it's easier to side on the cooler side...if a -NAO does set up shop.

We've seen some big snowfall and temperature gradients in Niña/-QBO winters before like 07-08 and 00-01...

At the same time though, if you really believe in the -NAO, you put your coldest anomalies in the Southeast.

Having said that, this was my very preliminary sketch of what the winter might look like:

[SoCoWx]

We've seen some big snowfall and temperature gradients in Niña/-QBO winters before like 07-08 and 00-01...

At the same time though, if you really believe in the -NAO, you put your coldest anomalies in the Southeast.

Having said that, this was my very preliminary sketch of what the winter might look like:

I agree with this prelim. map. It's similar to my early thoughts.

[gracetoyou]

The -NAO/AO is his forecast ...not a variable that we know for sure will be prevalent this winter. Also, I don't really care what Steve D says and why should I? I'm not trying to be a jerk to you or Steve but why exactly should I take this as a reason to be against the SE ridge? Are you saying because Steve D said so, I should just go about my day? And no where in your post did you bring up the North Pacific, which is what the main concern is here.

Last year is to future La Ninas what January 2000 is to every modeled out to sea noreaster. It is going to skew perceptions for the next 5-10 years for folks south of New England that it can be a great winter, even in a strong La Nina.

It took extraordinary things to happen at the right time to get a block powerful enough to offset that powerhouse Nina. I wouldnt take my chances with a strong la nina again.

First, let me say I enjoy reading your posts. Don't take what I'm going to say as a criticism, nor as a statement directed at you. More or less it's just a reminder to all of us as we continue to make predictions for the upcoming winter.

I think we learned from last winter you cannot always just rely on climatology & analogs & think the story is alread told. Again, there were very, very few that saw what happened last winter coming. I encourage you to go to youtube or last years threads on the same topic & have a good laugh at the predictions. Even in the late fall all I heard was "blowtorch is coming". Even late December, after we most of us had already had a big taste of winter cold I still kept hearing "...but blowtorch is on it's way". It just didn't happen until late Feb. for my area. It's great studying analogs & making predictions. In fact, you come across as one who knows what he's talking about...BUT we're talking weather. Weather seems to like making a habit of humbling the most learned of us humans. So, I wouldn't make the mistake of thinking that now we automatically get back to business as usual or in this case "La Nina as usual". Nor should we make the mistake of assuming that every Nina winter will be like last years.

Just saying!!

[gracetoyou]

I agree with this prelim. map. It's similar to my early thoughts.

That's similar to three other preliminary predictions I've seen so far.

[BethesdaWX]

The drop off of the solar parameters in the autumn/early winter was basically the reason for the blocking. We can only increase from here but it fluctuates like any cycle with notable harmonics. I don't see how we can have the same epic block this year unless the solar parameters dip as low as they did last autumn again. Now, I am not saying they are high by any means currently and they certainly are responsible for the long-duration -NAO period we are in. But the average solar wind speeds lately have been running at/above normal (400 km/s). They were like this to some extent at this time last year but then they dropped like a rock as we moved into the cold season.

What will happen this year when we cycle downward again with solar activity? It won't obviously go as low as the dips did in the 2008-2011 period but will they be low enough to produce epic blocking? Or just low enough for more typical blocking episodes?

I was wondering where I could find data on the Solar wind? I know it really plummeted in 2009, and dropped off quite a bit in DEC of last year. The CME's in recent days/weeks seem to be having some effect on the NAO too, or perhaps the SW increase on its own is responsible?

I've always thought that the blocking in the Northern-Pacific seems to be oriented further westward in low solar periods. It seemed to be the case for much of last winter. With a -QBO SSW events should be a bit easier to come by it would seem. But I feel that westward oriented block is absolutely key.

The SSW events seemed to halt in Febuary 2011, almost some good ones but didn't break the proper height field.

[tacoman25]

Last year was a strong La Nina....unlike this year. Therefore it would be totally safe to assume there will be even less of a Nina influence.

Actually, for second year Ninas (or even neutral winters sometimes) following a moderate/strong Nina, there is often still a very signficant Nina influence felt - sometimes even more than the previous winter. See: 1950-51, 1956-57, 1971-72, 1974-75, 1985-86, 1989-90, 2008-09.

However, I think there is a good chance of greater -NAO than many of those winters.

[BethesdaWX]

Actually, for second year Ninas (or even neutral winters sometimes) following a moderate/strong Nina, there is often still a very signficant Nina influence felt - sometimes even more than the previous winter. See: 1950-51, 1956-57, 1971-72, 1974-75, 1985-86, 1989-90, 2008-09.

However, I think there is a good chance of greater -NAO than many of those winters.

I think the solar factor determines alot, years like 1917-18 come to mind, 2008-09 is an OK analog too, but it had the +QBO involved. I do not think the solar activity levels need to drop even as low as last winter given the -QBO, but I'm talking out of my ass on that.

The Sun Activity aspect makes analogs from the 1950's, 60's, etc a bit hard to use.

[uncle W]

I liked the 1956 analog but its summer was much cooler...I'd take 1964-65 over that year and they were both similar around NYC...2008-09 was similar also...

[Ginx snewx]

By that same logic, I could say then that there would be less Aleutian High which was pivotal in the polar blocking last year. My biggest worry isn't the NAO but the state of the Northeast Pacific. Take a look at 56-57 for what I mean. A stratospheric warming and -NAO certainly occurred and the winter had its moments for sure. But I would say it was less than stellar for snow lovers south of Boston.

There is a huge chicken egg debate about the PAC and NAO. I would like to hear more. Discuss 70/71 in terms of the Pacific if you could please.

[Typhoon Tip]

There hasn't been a single +NAO day since 6/5, meaning we're at 64 straight -NAO days. This ties the record longest -NAO streak (daily NAO records go back to 1950) that was first set 12/22/62-2/23/63! Based on the forecast, we will defintely set a new record tomorrow and we should at least get close to 70 days. I'm using this link for dailies:

ftp://ftp.cpc.ncep.n...1.current.ascii

For the 8/1/11-8/11/11 dailies, go here:

http://www.cpc.ncep....ily.index.ascii

If a solid -NAO were to continue into the heart of the hurricane season, it would increase the chance for a not so bad hurricane season for the states, especially vs. current expectations. However, here is the gfs ensemble mean based NAO forecast:

http://www.cpc.ncep....a/nao.sprd2.gif

This shows that there will likely be at least a close call to ending the -NAO streak next week. We'll see. If so, that should make the pattern more conducive for a threat(s) to the U.S. east coast just in time for the heart of the season.

Are there any implications for next winter's NAO? Any opinions?

More evidence - perhaps - supportive of the multi-decadal oscillation's nose dive post 2000 and also having passed through neutral we are now by pure linear statistical measure, prone to negative NAO's more than positive - much like that which took place throughout the 1970s!

It is interesting to me that we are in the tri-superposition of solar minima during this time. I believe despite the background GW we are on a local decadal time-scale declination in temperature - which may only be expressed in a leveling off as the former and latter via for dominance in the global system of thermal source and sink. A harsh winter(s) would be a good bet.

Good post bringing this to light -

[A-L-E-X]

The -NAO/AO is his forecast ...not a variable that we know for sure will be prevalent this winter. Also, I don't really care what Steve D says and why should I? I'm not trying to be a jerk to you or Steve but why exactly should I take this as a reason to be against the SE ridge? Are you saying because Steve D said so, I should just go about my day? And no where in your post did you bring up the North Pacific, which is what the main concern is here.

Last year is to future La Ninas what January 2000 is to every modeled out to sea noreaster. It is going to skew perceptions for the next 5-10 years for folks south of New England that it can be a great winter, even in a strong La Nina.

It took extraordinary things to happen at the right time to get a block powerful enough to offset that powerhouse Nina. I wouldnt take my chances with a strong la nina again.

This is what most people miss-- it's all well and good to use certain years as analogs, but we have to be careful in the case of "close misses" or everything having to come together just right for a hit. The fact is that if it wasn't for those two storms for which everything had to come together to work, many of those less snowy forecasts would have been right-- and not only that, the window for when we had the most chance of getting snow was not that far off many of the LR forecasts-- the NAO did turn positive before the end of January, but the pattern lagged a bit and that's why we got a parting blow on Jan 26-27. The mid and late winter lack of snow was well forecast.

[A-L-E-X]

Last year was a strong La Nina....unlike this year. Therefore it would be totally safe to assume there will be even less of a Nina influence.

Last year was a moderate la nina, not a strong one. And that assumption you're making is anything but "safe," especially considering how much we lucked out as far as snowfall is concerned.

[A-L-E-X]

The blocking did occur though and so did a major mid-winter stratospheric warming event. The end of December (and November too) into January was very cold and the NAO went negative in February. One of the more memorable events occurred in April that year, just like in 97, because of the oncoming El Nino.

This is a great point, HM-- if you look at the late season signals of years like 57, 82 and 97-- a very late season snowstorm is often indicative of an oncoming El Nino the following winter. I've actually been eying 12-13 for awhile now as a moderate or strong el nino.

[A-L-E-X]

I think where we need to be most careful when deciding on temps during a Nina/possible -NAO regime, is south of NYC and especially DC. I think it was Will that mentioned -QBO's tend to enhance the gradient potential..probably thanks to the Hadley relationships that HM talks about. So any displacement of the NPAC ridge or displacement of the NAO ridge would probably set up one hell of a gradient near the MA...even with the NAO. Over the northeast or northern tier, it's easier to side on the cooler side...if a -NAO does set up shop.

It's completely conceivable we could see a 93-94 type of gradient (ignoring ENSO and the other indicators for a moment) but where the line separating the haves and have nots will be we wont know until we're at least half way done with winter lol.

[A-L-E-X]

More evidence - perhaps - supportive of the multi-decadal oscillation's nose dive post 2000 and also having passed through neutral we are now by pure linear statistical measure, prone to negative NAO's more than positive - much like that which took place throughout the 1970s!

It is interesting to me that we are in the tri-superposition of solar minima during this time. I believe despite the background GW we are on a local decadal time-scale declination in temperature - which may only be expressed in a leveling off as the former and latter via for dominance in the global system of thermal source and sink. A harsh winter(s) would be a good bet.

Good post bringing this to light -

There's some good research indicating that in solar periods such as this, the base value of the NAO is closer to -1 than it is to 0.... but, again, we may be coming out of that solar quietude, and headed towards a subdued maximum by around 2013 according to the latest predictions.