Record longest -NAO streak (going back to 1950) set today

[A-L-E-X]

Cue weenie suicides in the southern Plains and Southeast as well as a few farmers in OK and TX.

We wont get a good consistent STJ again until probably the next el nino (hopefully in 12-13).

[Matthew-Northern Italy]

Euro winterfans are praying too

[Quixotic1]

Cue weenie suicides in the southern Plains and Southeast as well as a few farmers in OK and TX.

Most of us died of heat stroke within the last month or so.

[GaWx]

Today's sub -2, the third in a row, makes it official: a new longest streak on record has now been set at 65 days, a streak that started way back on 6/6. For hurricane season -NAO haters, the good news is that the NAO's will now rise and should quickly get into neutral territory in ~five days and may actually end the streak at ~69 days. Also, the outlooks through day 14 indicate neutrality more or less holding.

[Ginx snewx]

Today's sub -2, the third in a row, makes it official: a new longest streak on record has now been set at 65 days, a streak that started way back on 6/6. For hurricane season -NAO haters, the good news is that the NAO's will now rise and should quickly get into neutral territory in ~five days and may actually end the streak at ~69 days. Also, the outlooks through day 14 indicate neutrality more or less holding.

Fantastic thread, full of info, thank you.

[donsutherland1]

It is good to see the streak break the record. There are a number of cases where prolonged or frequent NAO- regimes in the summer provided a signal for the winter that followed. Hopefully, this will be the case for Winter 2011-12.

[Ed Lizard]

It is good to see the streak break the record. There are a number of cases where prolonged or frequent NAO- regimes in the summer provided a signal for the winter that followed. Hopefully, this will be the case for Winter 2011-12.

I hope something changes down here to end the drought. And I'd prefer a warm ENSO for Winter, although that is looking less liely lately.

[donsutherland1]

I hope something changes down here to end the drought. And I'd prefer a warm ENSO for Winter, although that is looking less liely lately.

I completely agree with you, Ed. Hopefully down the road the drought-parched areas will see a wetter pattern evolve.

[mitchnick]

All 5 years had the following winter NAO in negative territory.

and flat out sucked down here for snow the following winter, with only 62/63 being average

meh...again

[GaWx]

Fantastic thread, full of info, thank you.

YW on behalf of all posters in here. I echo the sentiment about the loads of interesting info. Thanks, folks. Most importantly, let's think "negative' for this winter!!

[GaWx]

Today's NAO extended the record long -NAO streak to 66 days. Also, today's GFS ensemble mean NAO prediction is for the highest at both day 7 and day 10 (a small positive of ~+0.1 to +0.2) since the predictions made in late May. We'll almost certainly be near neutral within 2-3 days and there's a good chance that we'll be in halfway decent positive territory for at least a few days thereafter.

[nzucker]

I completely agree with you, Ed. Hopefully down the road the drought-parched areas will see a wetter pattern evolve.

I think TX/OK are in trouble in terms of hydrological concerns. The Niña seems to be strengthening rapidly again, and the CFS shows a very dry pattern for the Southern Plains in Winter 11-12. It will be hard for them to get much precipitation with the storm tracks that I see as possible for this winter.

[SnowGoose69]

I think TX/OK are in trouble in terms of hydrological concerns. The Niña seems to be strengthening rapidly again, and the CFS shows a very dry pattern for the Southern Plains in Winter 11-12. It will be hard for them to get much precipitation with the storm tracks that I see as possible for this winter.

Last winter was misleading to most people because the 2 big snow events stand out in their memory, but outside of those events very little precip fell there last winter. The only guarantee for precipitation it seems as far as La Ninas go in that region is that there is always a massive late season snow storm at the end of all of them though last year it occurred more during the mid-winter.

[VAwxman]

I think TX/OK are in trouble in terms of hydrological concerns. The Niña seems to be strengthening rapidly again, and the CFS shows a very dry pattern for the Southern Plains in Winter 11-12. It will be hard for them to get much precipitation with the storm tracks that I see as possible for this winter.

Yeah the likely dive back into La Nina is not great news down here. Much as I don't want any notable cyclone passing over my house, we need a tropical system or two... bad.

[NHLChase54]

So, for the mid Atlantic, we are looking at a negative NAO, and la nina is sticking around for a while? That would mean average snowfall for us here with colder temps?

[usedtobe]

It will be interesting to see what the NAO does in winter. There is a positive correlation between heights across greenland and eastern Canada and the summer NAO.

A easterly QBO also would argue for at least a period with a negative nao but most la ninas are not so good for snow across the mid atlantic south of NYC, last year and 1996 as notable exceptions except for around DC area last year.

[SoCoWx]

It will be interesting to see what the NAO does in winter. There is a positive correlation between heights across greenland and eastern Canada and the summer NAO.

A easterly QBO also would argue for at least a period with a negative nao but most la ninas are not so good for snow across the mid atlantic south of NYC, last year and 1996 as notable exceptions except for around DC area last year.

Last year was a strong La Nina....unlike this year. Therefore it would be totally safe to assume there will be even less of a Nina influence.

[HM]

Last year was a strong La Nina....unlike this year. Therefore it would be totally safe to assume there will be even less of a Nina influence.

By that same logic, I could say then that there would be less Aleutian High which was pivotal in the polar blocking last year. My biggest worry isn't the NAO but the state of the Northeast Pacific. Take a look at 56-57 for what I mean. A stratospheric warming and -NAO certainly occurred and the winter had its moments for sure. But I would say it was less than stellar for snow lovers south of Boston.

[nzucker]

By that same logic, I could say then that there would be less Aleutian High which was pivotal in the polar blocking last year. My biggest worry isn't the NAO but the state of the Northeast Pacific. Take a look at 56-57 for what I mean. A stratospheric warming and -NAO certainly occurred and the winter had its moments for sure. But I would say it was less than stellar for snow lovers south of Boston.

56-57 is definitely one of the analogs I've been looking at. In my mind, the orientation of the Aleutian High is key for snow lovers: if the ridge builds northward and has more of a meridional orientation, then we see very cold air move into the CONUS and a diminished SE ridge. Looking at 56-57, the Aleutian High was a bit too far south to off-set the Niña effect on heights in the SE:

[HM]

56-57 is definitely one of the analogs I've been looking at. In my mind, the orientation of the Aleutian High is key for snow lovers: if the ridge builds northward and has more of a meridional orientation, then we see very cold air move into the CONUS and a diminished SE ridge. Looking at 56-57, the Aleutian High was a bit too far south to off-set the Niña effect on heights in the SE:

Exactly...thanks for the follow-up post. And I agree about 56-57 being a strong analog.

[nzucker]

Exactly...thanks for the follow-up post. And I agree about 56-57 being a strong analog.

That winter could have been good for sneaky cold shots in the Northern Tier, however, with the PV favorably oriented over Canada due to the strong blocking high. You can see that NNE experienced near average temperatures while the mid-Atlantic torched, very strong gradient a bit reminiscent of 07-08:

I'd be hesitant to say that the NAO block will be as weak as 56-57...the blocking wasn't that well-defined that year.

[SoCoWx]

By that same logic, I could say then that there would be less Aleutian High which was pivotal in the polar blocking last year. My biggest worry isn't the NAO but the state of the Northeast Pacific. Take a look at 56-57 for what I mean. A stratospheric warming and -NAO certainly occurred and the winter had its moments for sure. But I would say it was less than stellar for snow lovers south of Boston.

Thats all very well, but based on the LR discussions Ive been reading by Steve D and others combined with where the teleconnections seems to be going and the prospects of -NAO/-AO, -QBO, and a basin-wide, weak La Nina I see no reason at this time to expect a strong SE Ridge. More of a ridge that is weak and easily squashed or moved around. I dont think it will be as cold and snowy as last Winter. But I dont think it will be abnormally warm and dry either.

[nzucker]

Looking at 56-57, the winter was almost unexpectedly warm in the Southeast/Lower Mid-Atlantic (some places were close to 8F above average!) given that 500mb heights were only somewhat above normal. But the fast northern stream must have fed a series of low pressures that warm-sectored these areas repeatedly. Looks like a very active pattern over Canada, with a multitude of SW flow events tracking north of the ridge.

[HM]

Thats all very well, but based on the LR discussions Ive been reading by Steve D and others combined with where the teleconnections seems to be going and the prospects of -NAO/-AO, -QBO, and a basin-wide, weak La Nina I see no reason at this time to expect a strong SE Ridge. More of a ridge that is weak and easily squashed or moved around. I dont think it will be as cold and snowy as last Winter. But I dont think it will be abnormally warm and dry either.

The -NAO/AO is his forecast ...not a variable that we know for sure will be prevalent this winter. Also, I don't really care what Steve D says and why should I? I'm not trying to be a jerk to you or Steve but why exactly should I take this as a reason to be against the SE ridge? Are you saying because Steve D said so, I should just go about my day? And no where in your post did you bring up the North Pacific, which is what the main concern is here.

Last year is to future La Ninas what January 2000 is to every modeled out to sea noreaster. It is going to skew perceptions for the next 5-10 years for folks south of New England that it can be a great winter, even in a strong La Nina.

It took extraordinary things to happen at the right time to get a block powerful enough to offset that powerhouse Nina. I wouldnt take my chances with a strong la nina again.

[HM]

Looking at 56-57, the winter was almost unexpectedly warm in the Southeast/Lower Mid-Atlantic (some places were close to 8F above average!) given that 500mb heights were only somewhat above normal. But the fast northern stream must have fed a series of low pressures that warm-sectored these areas repeatedly. Looks like a very active pattern over Canada, with a multitude of SW flow events tracking north of the ridge.

The blocking did occur though and so did a major mid-winter stratospheric warming event. The end of December (and November too) into January was very cold and the NAO went negative in February. One of the more memorable events occurred in April that year, just like in 97, because of the oncoming El Nino.

[nzucker]

The -NAO/AO is his forecast ...not a variable that we know for sure will be prevalent this winter. Also, I don't really care what Steve D says and why should I? I'm not trying to be a jerk to you or Steve but why exactly should I take this as a reason to be against the SE ridge? Are you saying because Steve D said so, I should just go about my day? And no where in your post did you bring up the North Pacific, which is what the main concern is here.

Last year is to future La Ninas what January 2000 is to every modeled out to sea noreaster. It is going to skew perceptions for the next 5-10 years for folks south of New England that it can be a great winter, even in a strong La Nina.

It took extraordinary things to happen at the right time to get a block powerful enough to offset that powerhouse Nina. I wouldnt take my chances with a strong la nina again.

As much as I admire your brilliance, I have to say I disagree with you here: I think Winter 10-11 proved that the -NAO rules the roost in an historic solar minimum, regardless of what ENSO dictates should be the pattern. We've seen a predominant -NAO in like 30 of the last 38 months, and if you look at the 500mb maps for the two winters, they are almost exactly the same...sure there are differences in the N PAC pattern, but overall the -NAO/-AO dictated what happened in sensible weather,, even in the SE which had below normal height anomalies despite a strong La Niña. So I'm not sure I'd hesitate as much as you to go colder than average in the Southeast this winter regardless of what ENSO manages to do...

09-10 at H5:

10-11 at H5:

[VAwxman]

And no where in your post did you bring up the North Pacific, which is what the main concern is here.

That's the main thing almost everyone misses. I hear it too. "The NAO crushed the entire la nina signal".

I don't think that's a conversation to have until one looks at the NPAC setup, which actually helped feed the NAO side. It was not just an Atlantic domination. The Pacific managed to be set up in such a way to allow that, or at the least, constructively interfere with the "typical" la nina configuration.

[nzucker]

That's the main thing almost everyone misses. I hear it too. "The NAO crushed the entire la nina signal".

I don't think that's a conversation to have until one looks at the NPAC setup, which actually helped feed the NAO side. It was not just an Atlantic domination. The Pacific managed to be set up in such a way to allow that, or at the least, constructively interfere with the "typical" la nina configuration.

In La Niña winters, our cold/snow chances seem to hinge on whether the Aleutian ridge has more of a vertical orientation (like last winter) or horizontal orientation (like 56-57 or 99-00 disasters). If the ridge doesn't manage to gain enough latitude, we usually get a vortex of death that sets up near the Bering Strait or into AK, blocking off our flow of cold air.

[HM]

As much as I admire your brilliance, I have to say I disagree with you here: I think Winter 10-11 proved that the -NAO rules the roost in an historic solar minimum, regardless of what ENSO dictates should be the pattern. We've seen a predominant -NAO in like 30 of the last 38 months, and if you look at the 500mb maps for the two winters, they are almost exactly the same...sure there are differences in the N PAC pattern, but overall the -NAO/-AO dictated what happened in sensible weather,, even in the SE which had below normal height anomalies despite a strong La Niña. So I'm not sure I'd hesitate as much as you to go colder than average in the Southeast this winter regardless of what ENSO manages to do...

I am not sure what you are disagreeing with me about.

[VAwxman]

In La Niña winters, our cold/snow chances seem to hinge on whether the Aleutian ridge has more of a vertical orientation (like last winter) or horizontal orientation (like 56-57 or 99-00 disasters). If the ridge doesn't manage to gain enough latitude, we usually get a vortex of death that sets up near the Bering Strait or into AK, blocking off our flow of cold air.

Right. And that northward extension of the NPAC ridge also helps aid in adding some blocking to the NAO side, all else being equal of course. That's all we're really saying.