August 12-? Severe Weather

[*IndyMeso*]

Just curious, what role does IDHS play in all this? What exactly does your agency do post event?

Well from our aspect of this event in particular, we are here to support local emergency management agencies. So, if Marion County needed additional search and resue teams or something to that effect, they can contact us and we can provide assistance by finding teams throughout the state. Like B-Rent mentioned before, the code enforcement officials, which are looking at the structure of the stage today and tomorrow, are a part of the State Fire Marshal's office. The Fire Marshal's office is a branch of IDHS.

As of right now, we are consistently on standby in case of a request for support in regards to post events. I do not expect any requests for assistance as now this is a recovery issue and determining how to go on from here. We do have a Recovery branch that deal with issues post event but they deal more with Federal declared disasters than local incidents like this.

[nwohweather]

Port Clinton OH has declared a state of emergency due to extreme flooding

[*IndyMeso*]

Completely agree. I was saying the same thing last night. It shouldn't matter if the storm was severe or not. They should have gotten everyone inside well before the storm moved in. The committee messed up big.

Now, I will say I do understand (to some degree) that they wanted to try to keep the show in progress in fear of losing money and the financial impact but this incident is gaining national news. Unfortunately, there were people who woke up that day thinking everything was dandy and a poor decision cost a lot to those people.

Also, I was working the state fair on Monday (the 8th) and I was in attendance on Tuesday (the 9th). On both of those days, there were thunderstorms in the area. On Tuesday, a severe thunderstorm warning was issued for the county and I heard nothing of the incoming storm on the intercom. I just looked up the warning and sure enough IND issued the warning at 7:08 and stated that the storm would be near the fairgrounds at 7:15. I had enough sense to seek shelter and thank god I did. Before I even reached a nearby building, the rain and wind came rolling in and caught a lot of people off guard.

[hm8]

Yahoo has bit from a met at NWS...

INDIANAPOLIS (AP) — The wind gust that toppled a stage at the Indiana State Fair Saturday night, killing five and injuring dozens of fans waiting for the country band Sugarland to perform, was a "fluke" that no one could have anticipated, the governor and others said Sunday.

The wind was far stronger than that in other areas of the fairgrounds, said Dan McCarthy, chief meteorologist for the National Weather Service in Indiana. He estimated the gust at 60 to 70 mph.

Gov. Mitch Daniels said precautions were taken before the storm, but no one could have foreseen such a strong gust focused in one place. Some witnesses have said that while a storm was expected, rain hadn't begun to fall when the wind sent the stage rigging falling into the crowd of terrified fans.

[Bryan Wood]

I posted this on my Facebook page for my non-Met friends...so don't take the explanations as patronizing or anything.

There's no doubt that last night's tragedy at the Indiana State Fair is horrifying. The fact that 5 people died is incredibly sad. However, I am angry as well, because these people shouldn't have died. Indiana governor Mitch Daniels says this was a freak accident that couldn't have been predicted. With all due respect, he was 100% wrong. In fact, the National Weather Service issued a Severe Thunderstorm Warning at 8:39 PM, 10 minutes before the stage collapsed.

AT 835 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A LINE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE HAIL...AND DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH. THESE STORMS WERE LOCATED ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 9 MILES NORTH OF ZIONSVILLE TO GREENCASTLE...AND MOVING EAST AT 25 MPH.

State police were watching radar on their smartphone trying to decide whether to evacuate. The problem was, they were looking at the "red and yellow areas" on the radar...which most people do. The problem was, a gust front had moved out 7-8 miles ahead of the rainstorm, which most people don't know how to identify on radar. It is a narrow line of blue or green that looks innocent, but is usually where the strongest winds are. I have illustrated this below.

They had a warning 10 minutes in advance from people who knew what was happening, but no action was taken. Sure, they said they were evacuating people, but video of the incident shows a different story. No one in front of the stage began to run away until the canopy blew off the stage, 5 seconds before the collapse. The concert planners and the fair didn't have a direct, open line of communication, even though a Thunderstorm Watch had been issued 3 hours in advance. When a warning was issued, they sat on their hands and relied on amateur's interpretation of radar....and 5 people died.

Today, everyone involved is chalking it up to a accident described as "freak" and "unpredictable". To me, this is just an excuse to pass the buck instead of taking the blame. Accountability in our day has completely gone out the window...and this is a prime example. We've had two other stage collapses this summer from high winds, but no one learns. It is likely going to take a massive lawsuit for the concert industry to change the way they handle severe weather. Once it hits the pocketbooks, then it becomes a problem. For once, I hope there is major lawsuit, because there is negligence out the wazoo here. In the end, it will lead to better safety for outdoor concertgoers.

[baroclinic_instability]

I posted this on my Facebook page for my non-Met friends...so don't take the explanations as patronizing or anything.

There's no doubt that last night's tragedy at the Indiana State Fair is horrifying. The fact that 5 people died is incredibly sad. However, I am angry as well, because these people shouldn't have died. Indiana governor Mitch Daniels says this was a freak accident that couldn't have been predicted. With all due respect, he was 100% wrong. In fact, the National Weather Service issued a Severe Thunderstorm Warning at 8:39 PM, 10 minutes before the stage collapsed.

AT 835 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A LINE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE HAIL...AND DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH. THESE STORMS WERE LOCATED ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 9 MILES NORTH OF ZIONSVILLE TO GREENCASTLE...AND MOVING EAST AT 25 MPH.

State police were watching radar on their smartphone trying to decide whether to evacuate. The problem was, they were looking at the "red and yellow areas" on the radar...which most people do. The problem was, a gust front had moved out 7-8 miles ahead of the rainstorm, which most people don't know how to identify on radar. It is a narrow line of blue or green that looks innocent, but is usually where the strongest winds are. I have illustrated this below.

They had a warning 10 minutes in advance from people who knew what was happening, but no action was taken. Sure, they said they were evacuating people, but video of the incident shows a different story. No one in front of the stage began to run away until the canopy blew off the stage, 5 seconds before the collapse. The concert planners and the fair didn't have a direct, open line of communication, even though a Thunderstorm Watch had been issued 3 hours in advance. When a warning was issued, they sat on their hands and relied on amateur's interpretation of radar....and 5 people died.

Today, everyone involved is chalking it up to a accident described as "freak" and "unpredictable". To me, this is just an excuse to pass the buck instead of taking the blame. Accountability in our day has completely gone out the window...and this is a prime example. We've had two other stage collapses this summer from high winds, but no one learns. It is likely going to take a massive lawsuit for the concert industry to change the way they handle severe weather. Once it hits the pocketbooks, then it becomes a problem. For once, I hope there is major lawsuit, because there is negligence out the wazoo here. In the end, it will lead to better safety for outdoor concertgoers.

It is a shame everyone is claiming this was a "freak event". In fact, it is pathetic. I just can't believe this is being portrayed as some crazy and totally unpredictable event, especially when it was predicted! Let us ignore the warning for a moment and remember there was a watch, as you mentioned, multiple hours in advance. Accountability has gone out the window, and I am more than shocked the governor of the state is claiming it was a fluke. It is nice to see in the Yahoo comments section of the news story most citizens realize this certainly was not a "fluke".

[CoastalWx]

I posted this on my Facebook page for my non-Met friends...so don't take the explanations as patronizing or anything.

There's no doubt that last night's tragedy at the Indiana State Fair is horrifying. The fact that 5 people died is incredibly sad. However, I am angry as well, because these people shouldn't have died. Indiana governor Mitch Daniels says this was a freak accident that couldn't have been predicted. With all due respect, he was 100% wrong. In fact, the National Weather Service issued a Severe Thunderstorm Warning at 8:39 PM, 10 minutes before the stage collapsed.

AT 835 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A LINE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE HAIL...AND DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH. THESE STORMS WERE LOCATED ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 9 MILES NORTH OF ZIONSVILLE TO GREENCASTLE...AND MOVING EAST AT 25 MPH.

State police were watching radar on their smartphone trying to decide whether to evacuate. The problem was, they were looking at the "red and yellow areas" on the radar...which most people do. The problem was, a gust front had moved out 7-8 miles ahead of the rainstorm, which most people don't know how to identify on radar. It is a narrow line of blue or green that looks innocent, but is usually where the strongest winds are. I have illustrated this below.

They had a warning 10 minutes in advance from people who knew what was happening, but no action was taken. Sure, they said they were evacuating people, but video of the incident shows a different story. No one in front of the stage began to run away until the canopy blew off the stage, 5 seconds before the collapse. The concert planners and the fair didn't have a direct, open line of communication, even though a Thunderstorm Watch had been issued 3 hours in advance. When a warning was issued, they sat on their hands and relied on amateur's interpretation of radar....and 5 people died.

Today, everyone involved is chalking it up to a accident described as "freak" and "unpredictable". To me, this is just an excuse to pass the buck instead of taking the blame. Accountability in our day has completely gone out the window...and this is a prime example. We've had two other stage collapses this summer from high winds, but no one learns. It is likely going to take a massive lawsuit for the concert industry to change the way they handle severe weather. Once it hits the pocketbooks, then it becomes a problem. For once, I hope there is major lawsuit, because there is negligence out the wazoo here. In the end, it will lead to better safety for outdoor concertgoers.

I thought this before I even saw your post. That's a real shame. Ugh.

[Hoosier]

Mind if I copy this from the other thread you just posted in Baro?

--

That coupled with the fact organizers were using an iPhone to watch radar data, and probably had no idea what a gust front is, or to look for it, were the two biggest contributing factors I see. But I want to wait for IOSHA, IDHS, and whoever else to issue their reports before I lay too much blame.

The other part of my post from the OT thread was about the separation between the outflow boundary and the leading edge of the rain. The image posted by Bryan Wood clearly shows the boundary several miles ahead of the heavier precip. Question for NWS mets here - I've seen some severe thunderstorm warnings indicate that damaging winds will occur well out ahead of the precip. Is there any standard for adding that line or is it at the whim of the forecaster on duty?

[The Great Zo]

The other part of my post from the OT thread was about the separation between the outflow boundary and the leading edge of the rain. The image posted by Bryan Wood clearly shows the boundary several miles ahead of the heavier precip. Question for NWS mets here - I've seen some severe thunderstorm warnings indicate that damaging winds will occur well out ahead of the precip. Is there any standard for adding that line or is it at the whim of the forecaster on duty?

That phrase is usually selected as an additional toggle option in WarnGen, but I don't recall if it's part of the baseline or something that must be customized by each office. There's no formal policy on using that wording, which I agree with; it seems reasonable to me to let the specific situation dictate the wording used. Similar wording is frequently used for SPSs as well, since gust fronts causing 40-50 MPH wind gusts are very common.

[blizznd]

The other part of my post from the OT thread was about the separation between the outflow boundary and the leading edge of the rain. The image posted by Bryan Wood clearly shows the boundary several miles ahead of the heavier precip. Question for NWS mets here - I've seen some severe thunderstorm warnings indicate that damaging winds will occur well out ahead of the precip. Is there any standard for adding that line or is it at the whim of the forecaster on duty?

There is no formal policy. Wargen is used to do warnings. How it is done is pretty standard across NWS offices, but in the case of damaging winds preceding the actual echoes care must be taken, as the first step in generating a warning is to move the dot or line to where the storms are and then go back a half hour or an hour to get good movement and speed. Then you select track and how long the warning is for and the program will then generate the box for the warning as it predicts based on where yiou put the intial location of the storm where it will be in xx time. Now....this part is critical as it would be up to the radar person who is generating the warning to put the initial dot or line correctly. Often it is on the leading edge of convection as that can be traced back in time. In this case, as the storms got closer a wind shift line was apparent on the radar ahead of the echoes. It would be up to the radar person to adjust to move the dot or line to that wind shift line if he/she wanted to so that the timing of severe storm arrival in the warning text matches the severe element (in this case wind). I have had to do this, but usually can only be done when the storms are in close proxmity of the radar to get a good location.

Otherwise I have used just echoes for timing, and then manually updated in the automated text that pops us that winds will precede the rain/hail portion.

But editing the text that pops up can be a pain as you have to be sure to adjust spacing and format.

I saw the original SVR, I assume the radar operator was using the echoes for timing as it was more clearly present versus the actual location of gust front which became apparent as the storms got closer.

--Dan NWS Grand Forks ND

[nwohweather]

Port clinton OH in NW Ohio on the shore of Lake Erie continues to be pounded by lake effect rain showers. They've received 7" of rain today and water continues to stay around 1-3 feet deep in town. Just 20 minutes west at my house we haven't had a drop of rain

[Thundersnow12]

west of Mound City, SD

[T Denninger]

west of Mound City, SD

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD 
843 PM CDT SUN AUG 14 2011  

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION... 	...LAT.LON... 
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
        	..REMARKS..  

0835 PM 	TORNADO          4 NNE LITTLE EAGLE      45.74N 100.77W 
08/14/2011               	CORSON         	SD   LAW ENFORCEMENT

         	BRIEF TORNADO TOUCHDOWN.

[andyhb]

Looks like a new meso trying to form on that supercell.

Edit: Mobridge look out...right mover with a very nice hook.

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD

807 PM MDT SUN AUG 14 2011

SDC031-150215-

/O.CON.KABR.TO.W.0024.000000T0000Z-110815T0215Z/

CORSON SD-

807 PM MDT SUN AUG 14 2011

...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR SOUTHEASTERN CORSON COUNTY

UNTIL 815 PM MDT...

AT 803 PM MDT...TRAINED WEATHER SPOTTERS REPORTED NUMEROUS FUNNEL

CLOUDS WITH THIS STORM. THIS TORNADO WAS LOCATED 7 MILES SOUTHEAST

OF LITTLE EAGLE...OR 15 MILES WEST OF MOBRIDGE...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT

15 MPH. RADAR IS INDICATING THE ROTATION IS GETTING STRONGER AND ANY

TORNADO WOULD BE RAIN WRAPPED.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...

MAINLY RURAL AREAS OF SOUTHEASTERN CORSON COUNTY.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TO REPEAT...A TORNADO IS ON THE GROUND. TAKE COVER NOW. MOVE TO AN

INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A STURDY BUILDING. AVOID

WINDOWS. IF IN A MOBILE HOME...A VEHICLE OR OUTDOORS...MOVE TO THE

CLOSEST SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER AND PROTECT YOURSELF FROM FLYING DEBRIS.

HEAVY RAINFALL MAY HIDE THIS TORNADO. DO NOT WAIT TO SEE OR HEAR THE

TORNADO. TAKE COVER NOW.

[TheWeatherPimp]

Were there ever any EF ratings/storm surveys from the tornadoes in Cherry and Brown counties in Nebraska earlier this week?

[Bryan Wood]

It is a shame everyone is claiming this was a "freak event". In fact, it is pathetic. I just can't believe this is being portrayed as some crazy and totally unpredictable event, especially when it was predicted! Let us ignore the warning for a moment and remember there was a watch, as you mentioned, multiple hours in advance. Accountability has gone out the window, and I am more than shocked the governor of the state is claiming it was a fluke. It is nice to see in the Yahoo comments section of the news story most citizens realize this certainly was not a "fluke".

This morning, they said on the Early Show that "The National Weather Service and our meteorologist on site said we had more time". This begs the question...did they expect to be able to successfully evacuate 12,000 people just moments before the storm arrived? I've been to the Indiana State Fairgrounds a few times and seen the buildings where they would've evacuated people to. There's no way they could've pulled that off.

[Chicago WX]

Maybe I'm being picky, but stuff like this doesn't help. And makes me a bit angry that the facts can't be reported accurately in the media (RE the watch issuance time which was 6:00PM, not 8:09PM).

From the Lafayette Journal & Courier: http://www.jconline.com/article/20110815/NEWS/108150323/From-watch-warning-30-minutes

From watch to warning in 30 minutes

A timeline provided Sunday by the Indiana State Police, shows that Marion County went from being under a severe thunderstorm watch starting at 8:09 p.m. to a severe thunderstorm warning at 8:39 p.m.

The difference is significant. A watch is issued when the exact time and location of storm development are uncertain and means "be prepared for storms," according to a terminology explainer by the National Weather Service. A warning means to take shelter. The warning came 10 minutes before the stage collapsed after being hit by a gust of wind.

[The Great Zo]

More commentaries on the event:

Jim LaDue

Brad Panovich

Jason Samenow (Washington Post)

[Bryan Wood]

http://www.crh.noaa.gov/news/display_cmsstory.php?wfo=ind&storyid=71901&source=0

NWS Indianapolis recapped all their guidance for Saturday's storms. To me, this indirectly says "you had PLENTY of warning"....and I agree. Hard to argue with the evidence.

[tornadotony]

000 NWUS53 KLBF 152118 LSRLBF PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE 418 PM CDT MON AUG 15 2011 ..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON... ..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE.... ..REMARKS.. 0953 PM TORNADO 1 WNW PURDUM 42.07N 100.28W 08/11/2011 THOMAS NE NWS STORM SURVEY TORNADO SNAPPED OFF SEVERAL LARGE LIMBS FROM ELM TREES THAT WERE DISPLACED UP TO 300 FEET TO THE SOUTH. FOUR POWER POLES WERE BROKEN ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF THE ROAD AND AROUND 250 FEET OF BARB WIRE FENCING ON THE NORTH AND SOUTH SIDES OF THE ROAD WAS DAMAGED. && $$ NWS

[B-Rent]

I ran across this today on a theater blog, its from AccuWeather, talking about the potential that a gustnado caused the damage: http://www.accuweather.com/blogs/news/story/53798/indiana-stage-collapse-gustnad.asp

[JoMo]

I ran across this today on a theater blog, its from AccuWeather, talking about the potential that a gustnado caused the damage: http://www.accuweath...pse-gustnad.asp

Well, this rules that out " Henry Margusity suspects that a gustnado was a cause of the collapse."

[TheWeatherPimp]

I just got done writing a long and detailed blog entry on the Saturday Evening Stage Collapse and not trying to be at all critical of the NWS IND but the estimated times of arrival at the State Fairgrounds were definitely off. The Severe Weather Statement which was issued at 8:58 PM, almost 10 minutes after the stage collapse, indicated an estimated time of arrival at the fairgrounds of 9:20 PM. I'm assuming, as was stated earlier in this thread, that the NWS was tracking the line itself rather than the gust front.

[baroclinic_instability]

I just got done writing a long and detailed blog entry on the Saturday Evening Stage Collapse and not trying to be at all critical of the NWS IND but the estimated times of arrival at the State Fairgrounds were definitely off. The Severe Weather Statement which was issued at 8:58 PM, almost 10 minutes after the stage collapse, indicated an estimated time of arrival at the fairgrounds of 9:20 PM. I'm assuming, as was stated earlier in this thread, that the NWS was tracking the line itself rather than the gust front.

So many different aspects to consider here, but just commenting on this alone, the estimated time of arrival should be of little overall consideration, IMO. Besides the fact it may have been issued for what was expected to be the "most severe" part of the storm (which may not have been the gust front), it seems this stage very well may have collapsed without severe wind criteria even being met. If the event coordinators were solely using warnings for all decision making (which I doubt), it should have been based off the warning issuance alone, not the estimated TOA (i.e., plans should have been made to evacuate immediately after the warning went out). Why wait around and evacuate at the last moment? If they issued a tornado warning with an estimated TOA, should they wait until the very last second to evacuate? Should they wait until 5 minutes until the tornado arrives then evacuate at the final moment? Definitely not! That said, there were many flaws in this whole event, and it would have been advantageous to have an NWS IMET or some private consultant giving more direct support services to event coordinators/emergency officials. That would negate any "lost in translation" issues, and it would allow for meteorological support not covered by severe wx warnings (i.e., high wind gusts but less than severe criteria), lighting threats, etc. What has irked me from day one was all the sidestepping by upper level officials claiming this was completely unpredictable, fluky, and unavoidable. That is just not the case.

[TheWeatherPimp]

So many different aspects to consider here, but just commenting on this alone, the estimated time of arrival should be of little overall consideration, IMO. Besides the fact it may have been issued for what was expected to be the "most severe" part of the storm (which may not have been the gust front), it seems this stage very well may have collapsed without severe wind criteria even being met. If the event coordinators were solely using warnings for all decision making (which I doubt), it should have been based off the warning issuance alone, not the estimated TOA (i.e., plans should have been made to evacuate immediately after the warning went out). Why wait around and evacuate at the last moment? If they issued a tornado warning with an estimated TOA, should they wait until the very last second to evacuate? Should they wait until 5 minutes until the tornado arrives then evacuate at the final moment? Definitely not! That said, there were many flaws in this whole event, and it would have been advantageous to have an NWS IMET or some private consultant giving more direct support services to event coordinators/emergency officials. That would negate any "lost in translation" issues, and it would allow for meteorological support not covered by severe wx warnings (i.e., high wind gusts but less than severe criteria), lighting threats, etc. What has irked me from day one was all the sidestepping by upper level officials claiming this was completely unpredictable, fluky, and unavoidable. That is just not the case.

Oh don't get me wrong, my blog argued that this wasn't a fluke and articulated that the SPC and NWS had hazardous weather outlooks, watches and warnings out well before time. Just noticed the estimated time of arrivals when I was digging through the statements and thought I'd post the screen capture. I definitely agree that the ball was dropped and that evacuations should have begun immediately. Even without a severe thunderstorm, with the grandstands and outdoor stage being made of complete metal, the lightning in the distance should have been a warning sign.

[baroclinic_instability]

Oh don't get me wrong, my blog argued that this wasn't a fluke and articulated that the SPC and NWS had hazardous weather outlooks, watches and warnings out well before time. Just noticed the estimated time of arrivals when I was digging through the statements and thought I'd post the screen capture. I definitely agree that the ball was dropped and that evacuations should have begun immediately. Even without a severe thunderstorm, with the grandstands and outdoor stage being made of complete metal, the lightning in the distance should have been a warning sign.

It would be interesting to learn exactly what the coordinators were using for weather information, how they were using it, and what the plans were. Right now so much is speculation. As you said, did they have a plan for lightning, a possible tornado, etc? Right now nobody really knows, but the information at this juncture points to no.

[TheWeatherPimp]

It would be interesting to learn exactly what the coordinators were using for weather information, how they were using it, and what the plans were. Right now so much is speculation. As you said, did they have a plan for lightning, a possible tornado, etc? Right now nobody really knows, but the information at this juncture points to no.

Our fair starts this Friday and as an Emergency Manager, one of the first things I did today was organize a meeting to review our Emergency Operations Plan for the fair. The plan is actually pretty detailed, but we're going to review it anyways after this weekend's incident in Indianapolis.

[baroclinic_instability]

Our fair starts this Friday and as an Emergency Manager, one of the first things I did today was organize a meeting to review our Emergency Operations Plan for the fair. The plan is actually pretty detailed, but we're going to review it anyways after this weekend's incident in Indianapolis.

Good to hear. I heard The Minnesota fair (one of the larger state fairs with daily attendance typically over 100,000) is reviewing their plans as well. If anything I hope the other state fairs make note and learn of the events.

[baroclinic_instability]

Wow my thoughts exactly here. Great read that I just saw...

http://wxbrad.com/?p=1450

An excerpt:

"What happened here was that either communications broke down or the threat was greatly misunderstood by the officials at the Fair Grounds. These storms did not just pop-up or pulse right over the fair grounds which would indeed have been a fluke. There was plenty of warning, if you you knew or wanted to know what was going to happen. The focus on the actual Severe Thunderstorm Warning is insignificant in my opinion. The warning was issued at 8:39pm which was 10 mins before the stage collapsed. A severe thunderstorm warning is only issued when winds are 58mph or higher or hail is 1” in diameter or larger. Problem here is you have people in an outdoor event and around a temporary structure which requires them to seek shelter at a much lower threshold. Something that should have been known by those organizing the event. One of the fatalities was a stage hand in a metal light structure running a spot light, with lightning clearly visible in the distance. Lightning alone was sufficient reason to evacuate people and since lightning was within 10 miles of the fair grounds patrons should have been seeking shelter. Then you had at least 40-50 mph winds in these storms. Not enough to issue a warning but enough if I’m in a tent, camper or temporary structure evacuating that structure and I’m seeking shelter.This is where I would recommend any outdoor event either have a trained meteorologist on-site or on call during the entire event. If you have trained police, fire and medics on site for emergencies then why not a meteorologist?”

The reliance on smartphone apps which was quoted by officials at the press conference Saturday night is unacceptable. As seen in the radar images the gust front was a huge threat that to an untrained eye and on a composite radar on your phone is not detectable. I love technology and especially my iPhone, but a weather app is not a meteorologist just like WebMD is not a doctor.

We need to learn from this incident and make weather preparedness a priority in all our outdoor events and activities. It amazes me the amount of safety precautions and preparation we make for terrorism, fire, and car crashes. Yet we still do very little for severe weather safety and preparation which occurs far more frequently and widespread than the prior."

[baroclinic_instability]

I have done private meteorology and decision support services for state DOT's as a private met for three years before coming to the NWS, and I love the interaction with the customers. I am glad the NWS is branching out into DSS with a big push coming in the coming years. Still a lot of work that needs to be done, but I foresee a day soon where the NWS has even greater visibility at functions such as this where having a trained meteorologist on site will provide support services so Indy State Fair tragedies can be avoided. The future of meteorology/forecasting is DSS.